摘要
中国经济正处于结构调整攻坚期,如何通过"政府之手"推进结构改革、引导经济转型是未来发展的重心。本文分别从需求和供给两个层面构建经济结构变迁指标,运用马尔科夫区制转移因果模型探究货币政策、财政政策与相对价格变化、产业结构变迁之间的非线性驱动机制,甄别变量间的时变因果关系以及时间区制分布,以期为促进经济结构转型升级、实现经济高质量发展提供政策参考。研究发现:价格型货币政策与数量型货币政策均能显著影响相对价格变化和产业结构变迁,且第三产业部门对货币政策冲击的敏感度更强。此外,政府支出政策与税收政策均能有效作用于相对价格变化和产业结构变迁,且第一、第二产业部门对财政政策的冲击更为敏感。最后,中国政府通常采取利率政策和税收政策调控相对物价水平,采用货币供给政策和政府支出政策推动产业结构优化。宏观调控政策对经济结构变迁的作用具有时变性特征。相比货币政策,财政政策对经济结构变迁的作用时间更长。
China’s economy is at a critical stage of structural change.It is the focus of China’s future development that promoting structural reform and economic transformation through government.This paper firstly constructs the indicators of economic structural change from demand and supply level respectively.Then we use the non-linear Markov Switching Causality Model to analyze the non-linear driving mechanism among macroeconomic regulation policies,fiscal policies and economic structural change.We also identify the dynamic causality and regime distributions among variables.The empirical results show that:Both price-based monetary policy and quantitative monetary policy have significant effects on relative price and industrial structure.Tertiary industries are more sensitive to the impact of monetary policy than primary industries and secondary industries.Both government expenditure policy and tax policy can effectively affect relative price and industrial structure.Fiscal policies also strongly influence primary and secondary industries.The Chinese government usually adopts interest rate and tax to stabilize relative price,money supply and government expenditure to improve industrial structure.However,we find that fiscal policies always play a more important role than monetary policies based on the result of time-varying dynamic causality.
作者
隋建利
李玥蓉
李悦欣
Sui Jianli;Li Yuerong;Li Yuexin(Quantitative Economics Center of Jilin University;Business School of Jilin University)
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期37-53,共17页
Economic Review
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“非线性状态空间混频数据模型在中国第三产业结构演变研究中的应用”(项目编号:71573104)
吉林大学科学前沿与交叉学科创新项目“新常态下新生代农民工消费行为与影响因素研究”(项目编号:2016QY029)
吉林大学青年学术领袖培育计划项目(项目编号:2019FRLX10)的资助
作者简介
隋建利,吉林大学数量经济研究中心,邮政编码:130012,电子信箱:jlsui@163.com;李玥蓉,吉林大学商学院,邮政编码:130012,电子信箱:4135361@qq.com;李悦欣,吉林大学商学院,邮政编码:130012,电子信箱:965064636@qq.com。
