摘要
本文试图从企业出口能力视角构建分析中国出口增长之谜的理论框架。首先,界定企业出口能力内涵,并结合企业动态能力、资源基础观、渐近式国际化理论阐述其理论依据,然后将其分解为潜在出口供给能力、出口转化能力和冲击应对能力,进而考察三者的决定因素。其次,基于贸易壁垒冲击场景展开理论分析并构建模型,发现如果企业出口能力(冲击应对能力)较强,则出口可维持增长趋势,因为冲击将倒逼和激励企业进行出口产品结构调整、提高产品多样化程度、采取质量竞争策略。再次,利用美国对华反倾销的“准自然实验”进行实证研究,基本回归结果、机制分析、稳健性和异质性检验证实了理论分析的结论。最后,通过企业层面的案例以及中美贸易摩擦进一步验证实证结果的可靠性。本文还给出了相关政策建议并指出可拓展研究的方向。
Since the reform and opening up,China has created a miracle of export growth while frequently encountering trade barriers,trade frictions,foreign policy uncertainty and other negative shocks.However,classical international trade theories such as comparative advantage theory,factor endowment theory,monopolistic competition theory,and heterogeneous firms and trade theory cannot provide a reasonable explanation for the miracle.Therefore,research on the mystery of China’s export has become the focus of literature.First,literature attributes the miracle of China’s export to successfully seizing the external opportunities of global value chain(GVC).Second,it holds that the miracle stems from the strengthening of comprehensive competitive advantages and comparative advantages of China.Third,it holds that the miracle is a passive behavior due to distortions in domestic market.Fourth,some literature examines the export behavior and export characteristics of enterprises,which is useful for further research at the enterprise level.However,most literature is at the macro and industry level,and there is little literature from the perspective of enterprise behavior.Export growth ultimately comes from enterprises and is related to their own capabilities.Even the export growth caused by GVC ultimately depends on enterprises’ability to effectively embed in the GVC,so it is necessary to examine enterprises’export behavior and the underlying mechanism.First,this paper constructs a theoretical framework to analyze the mystery of China’s export growth from the perspective of enterprise export capability.We define the connotation of enterprise export capability for the first time,and elaborate its theoretical basis in combination with dynamic capability theory,resource-based view,and incremental internationalization theory.On this basis,this paper decomposes enterprise export capability into potential export supply capability,export transformation capability and shock response capability,and examines the determinants of each capability.Second,we use trade barriers as a specific scenario to systematically analyze enterprise export capacity and the mechanism for promoting export growth.If enterprise export capacity is strong,exports can maintain a growth trend,because shocks will force and motivate enterprises to adjust the structure of export products,improve the diversification of export products,and adopt quality competition strategies.In addition,the export inertia and path dependence of enterprises,incomplete information and ex-ante uncertainty,and low elasticity of foreign demand can also be used as supplementary explanations.Third,the quasi-natural experiment of US anti-dumping against China is used to empirically test enterprise export capability and its mechanism of promoting export growth.The empirical study finds that the export of Chinese enterprises do not decrease under the impact of anti-dumping,which indicates that enterprise export capability is strong,and also verifies the existence of various mechanisms in the theoretical analysis.This paper further verifies the empirical results through case studies.This conclusion is different from the empirical results of existing literature using export data at the industry or product level,which is instructive.This paper has strong enlightenment and policy significance,indicating that enterprise export capability is the key to China’s export growth,and it is also the key for enterprises to cope with negative shocks in the international market.First,it is necessary to increase the quantity and quality of various factors through a high-quality domestic economic development,improve domestic industrial chain and supply chain,and encourage enterprises to accumulate various factors,thereby enhancing the potential export supply capability.Second,it is necessary to enhance the ability of enterprises to participate in a new round of international division of labor through high-level domestic and international,thereby enhancing the export transformation capability.Third,enterprises should be encouraged to improve their dynamic capabilities,strengthen their innovation capabilities,increase the flexibility and diversity of production,and improve the quality and technical content of export products,thereby enhancing their shock response capability.
作者
刘洪愧
LIU Hongkui(Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第10期103-120,共18页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72003193,72173132、72073141,71903009)的阶段性成果
关键词
中国出口奇迹
企业出口能力
贸易壁垒
反倾销
出口结构
Mystery of China’s Export Growth
Enterprise Export Capability
Trade Barriers
Anti-dumping
Export Structure
作者简介
刘洪愧,中国社会科学院经济研究所,邮政编码:100836,电子信箱:lhyhnly@126.com。
