摘要
RCEP是目前全球覆盖经济区最大的区域贸易协定,中国于2020年签署加入RCEP对参与亚太地区经贸合作带来深远影响。通过对成员国近十年彼此间错综复杂的FTA签署空间网络及其一体化效应的研究,我们得以预判RCEP生效对于亚太地区经贸格局的影响。本文通过考察对亚太地区FTA协定空间形态的覆盖广度与深度,采用社会网络分析方法,从网络密度与网络中心势等维度测度FTA贸易空间网络的属性与特点,重点选择FTA协定条款深度作为核心变量,选取扩展型贸易引力模型,构建FTA条款影响经济体贸易规模变化的估计模型,由此验证FTA影响成员国贸易增长的作用机制。论文进一步通过回归系数方法预测RCEP生效后引致的成员国双边贸易增长水平。论文结论为:RCEP生效后对于中国与其他成员经济体之间的贸易规模总量带来较大增长,协定生效尤其对未来中日双边贸易将带来显著的增长效应。
RCEP is supposed to be a leading trade liberalization agreement covering largest spatial region in the world so far.China’s accession to RCEP in 2020 will bring far-reaching impact on economic and trade cooperation in Asia-pacific region.By analyzing the nature of on-going FTA network within that region,the paper evaluates and predicts the impact of RCEP agreement on trade dynamic situation of member economies.This paper investigates the coverage and depth of the spatial form of FTA agreements,and measures the attributes and characteristics of FTA trade agreement network from the dimensions of network density and network centralityby adopting SNA research method.The paper selects the depth of the FTA agreement as the core variable,and compose an empirical estimation model of the impact of the FTA provisions on trade scale using extended trade gravity model.The paper further forecasts trade volume expectation of selected member countries by adopting the regression coefficient methodology.The paper finds out that RCEP’s effectuation will result in incrementation effect in aggregate trade volume between China and other member economies,especially the bilateral trade between China and Japan.
作者
黄烨菁
李锦明
郑枫
HUANG Yejing;LI Jinming;ZHENG Feng
出处
《金融发展》
2022年第2期112-127,共16页
Financial Development
基金
上海市商务委年度重点项目(SHXM-00-20220722-1119)
作者简介
黄烨菁,上海社会科学院世界经济研究所研究员,博士生导师,研究方向:经济一体化、产业创新;李锦明,上海社会科学院研究生院博士研究生,研究方向:经济一体化;郑枫,上海社会科学院研究生院博士研究生,研究方向:国际贸易问题。
