摘要
当前美国通货膨胀形势严峻,威胁全球经济金融稳定。从表面来看,美国通胀水平受需求拉动与成本推动交织影响,而深层次推手则是之前美国政府采取极端宽松政策。美国政府及美联储应对通胀行动迟缓,直至2022年5月美联储启动激进加息进程,但全球供应链尚未恢复,美国通胀虽趋于缓和,但仍远高于其目标值。同时,激进加息可能带来美国财政问题的恶化,加剧美国经济复苏压力,存在全球负面溢出效应,尤其是新兴经济体将受到打击。为此,建议我国持续做好对跨境资金流动的监测预警,坚持货币政策取向以国内为主,主动应对供给侧冲击,强化预期管理,维护金融市场稳定。
Currently,the high inflation in the United States threatens global economic and financial stability.On the surface,U.S.inflation is driven by a mix of demand pull and cost push,and the underlying driver is the ultra-loose policy by the U.S.government.The U.S.government has been slow to tackle inflation,and the Fed starts aggressive hiking campaign until May 2022.However,global supply chains have yet to recover,and U.S.inflation may prove difficult to contain.In addition,aggressive pace of rate hikes may worsen the U.S.fiscal problems,hinder economic recovery,and bring about negative global spillover effects,especially emerging economies will be hit.To this end,it is recommended to continue to monitor cross-border capital flows,adhere to the domestic-based monetary policy orientation,actively respond to supply-side shocks,strengthen expectation management,and maintain financial market stability.
作者
黄沁
巫姣
Huang Qin;Wu Jiao
出处
《开发性金融研究》
2022年第6期61-73,共13页
Development Finance Research
关键词
美国
通货膨胀
货币政策
the United States
Inflation
Monetary Policy
