摘要
为了研究安宁市森林火灾的空间分布和预测森林火灾的发生,选取了安宁市1986年至2020年有记载的森林火灾火点数据,构建广义线性模型和ARIMA算法模型研究森林火灾火点的空间分布预测和气候环境因子的时间序列分析,并对两种预测方法进行了对比分析。研究结果显示:广义线性模型更适合用来研究人类活动引发的火灾,且对样本容量要求较高,ARIMA算法模型更适合研究自然引发的火灾,更注重气候环境因子的变化。两种预测模型的预测都达到了中精度水平,还有进一步的优化空间。
In order to research the spatial distribution of forest fire and predict the occurrence of forest fires,we selected recorded forest fire data from 1986 to 2020 in Anning City.Using this data,we constructed a generalized linear model and ARIMA algorithm model to study the spatial distribution of forest fire fires and time series analysis of forecast and climate factors,and a comparative analysis of the two forecasting methods.The research results show that the generalized linear model is more suitable for studying fires caused by human activities,and requires a higher sample size.The ARIMA algorithm model is more suitable for studying fires caused by nature and pays more attention to changes in climate and environmental factors.The predictions of the two prediction models have reached the medium accuracy level,and there is still room for further optimization.
作者
梁日清
角从斌
田波
杨增芳
LIANG Riqing;JUE Congbin;TIAN Bo;YANG Zengfang(Ecological Branch of Yunnan Forestry Survey and Planning Institute,Kunming 650224)
出处
《林业建设》
2021年第1期20-25,共6页
Forestry Construction
作者简介
梁日清,男,工程师,从事林业调查规划及设计工作。
