摘要
Forecasting error amending is a universal solution to improve short-term wind power forecasting accuracy no matter what specific forecasting algorithms are applied. The error correction model should be presented considering not only the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of forecasting errors but also the field application adaptability problems. The kernel recursive least-squares(KRLS) model is introduced to meet the requirements of online error correction. An iterative error modification approach is designed in this paper to yield the potential benefits of statistical models, including a set of error forecasting models. The teleconnection in forecasting errors from aggregated wind farms serves as the physical background to choose the hybrid regression variables. A case study based on field data is found to validate the properties of the proposed approach. The results show that our approach could effectively extend the modifying horizon of statistical models and has a better performance than the traditional linear method for amending short-term forecasts.
基金
partly supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51190101)
science and technology project of State Grid,Research on the combined planning method for renewable power base based on multi-dimensional characteristics of wind and solar energy
作者简介
Man XU received the B.S.degree in electrical engineering from Tsinghua University.She is now a PHD candidate in electrical engineering at State Key Laboratory of Power System,Tsinghua University,Beijing,China.Her research interests include wind power forecast and data processing.carriethu@foxmail.com;Zongxiang LU received the B.S.and Ph.D.degrees in electrical engineering from Tsinghua University,Beijing,China,in 1998 and 2002,respectively.He is now an associate Professor of Electrical Engineering at Tsinghua University,Beijing,China.His research interests include power system reliability,renewable energy and microgrid,and large scale wind power integration.He has been the PI of more than 30 academic and industrial projects.He is the author of 2 books on power system reliability and wind power integration.He was awarded F5000 influential papers and top articles in China in 2007.luzongxiang98@tsinghua.edu.cn;Ying QIAO received the B.S.and Ph.D.degrees in electrical engineering from Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai,and Tsinghua University,Beijing,China,in 2002 and 2008,respectively.She is now an associate Professor of Electrical Engineering at Tsinghua University,Beijing,China,where she has been employed since 2010.Her research interests include renewable energy and power system security and control.qiaoying@tsinghua.edu.cn;Yong MIN received the B.Sc.degree and the Ph.D.degree in electrical engineering from Tsinghua University,Beijing,China,in 1984 and 1990,respectively.He is currently a Professor with the Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University.His research interests are in power system stability and control.Prof.Min is a Fellow of the IET.minyong@tsinghua.edu.cn
