摘要
In the face of the pressing environmental issues,the past decade witnessed the booming development of the distributed energy systems(DESs).A notable problem of DESs is the inevitable uncertainty that may make DESs deviate significantly from the deterministically obtained expectations,in both aspects of optimal design and economic operation.It thus necessitates the sensitivity analysis to quantify the impacts of the massive parametric uncertainties.This paper aims to give a comprehensive quantification,and carries out a multi-stage sensitivity analysis on DESs from the perspectives of evaluation criteria,optimal design and economic operation.First,a mathematical model of a DES is developed to present the solutions to the three stages of the DES.Second,the Monte-Carlo simulation is carried out subject to the probabilistic distributions of the energy,technical and economic parameters.Based on the simulation results,the variance-based Sobol method is applied to calculate the individual importance,interactional importance and total importance of various parameters.The comparison of the multi-stage results shows that only a few parameters play critical roles while the uncertainty of most of the massive parameters has little impact on the system performance.In addition,the influence of parameter interactions in the optimal design stage are much stronger than that in the evaluation criteria and operation strategy stages.
基金
supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51936003)
National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFB1502904)
作者简介
Shangshang Wei received the B.S.degree in thermal energy and power engineering from the China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou,China,in 2015,and the M.S.degree in power engineering from Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an,China,in 2018.He is now pursuing for a Ph.D.degree in power engineering and automation at Southeast University,Nanjing,China.His research interests include mechanism modeling,optimal operation and advanced control of hybrid energy systems.e-mail:230189429@seu.edu.cn;corresponding author:Yiguo Li received the B.S.degree in power engineering from Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan,China,in 1995,and the M.S.and Ph.D.degrees in thermal power engineering from Southeast University,Nanjing,China,in 1998 and 2002,respectively.He is now a Professor with the Department of Power Engineering and Automation,School of Energy and Environment,Southeast University.His main research interests include predictive control,multiple model control,and fuzzy modeling and control with applications to thermal power plants and integrated energy systems.e-mail:lyg@seu.edu.cn;Xianhua Gao received the B.S.degree in thermal energy and power engineering from the China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou,China,in 2015,and the M.S.degree in power engineering from Southeast University,Nanjing,China,in 2018.She is now pursuing for a Ph.D.degree in power engineering and automation at Southeast University.Her current research interests include model predictive control and disturbance rejection control in thermal power systems and hybrid energy systems.e-mail:230189044@seu.edu.cn;Kwang Y.Lee received the B.S.degree in electrical engineering from Seoul National University,Seoul,South Korea,and the M.S.degree in electrical engineering from North Dakota State University,Fargo,USA,and the Ph.D.degree in systems science from Michigan State University,East Lansing,USA.He has been working in the area of power plants and power systems control for over 40 years with Michigan State,Oregon State,University of Houston,Houston,USA,Pennsylvania State University,State College,USA,and Baylor University,Waco,USA,where he is a Professor and a Chairman with the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering.His research interests include control,operation,and planning of energy systems,computational intelligence,intelligent control,and their applications to energy and environmental systems,and modeling,simulation,and control of renewable and distributed energy sources.e-mail:kwang_y_lee@baylor.edu;Li Sun received the B.S.degree from Southeast University,Nanjing,China,in 2012,and the Ph.D.degree from the Department of Thermal Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing,China,in 2017.He is currently an Assistant Professor with the School of Energy and Environment,Southeast University.He was an Associate Editor for 2015 American Control Conference.His research interests include advanced control,energy management and machine learning of power systems.e-mail:sunli12@seu.edu.cn
