摘要
从产业部门角度出发,采用面板回归模型,对2008—2017年中国30个省市自治区(除西藏、香港、澳门和台湾)的面板数据进行分析,研究三次产业生产总值与部门能源强度之间的关系,揭示三次产业的部门能源强度在能源强度曲线所处的阶段,提出促进经济增长的产业结构优化路径。研究结果表明:1)这30省份中,三次产业生产总值与其部门能源强度均服从个体随机效应模型且存在长期均衡负相关关系,即目前中国三次产业的部门能源强度均处于下降阶段,经济增长与能源强度处于倒U型曲线的下行阶段。2)能源利用率对三次产业的影响有差异,对第三产业的影响最大。三次产业的部门能源强度每减少1%,三次产业生产总值增加效应依次递增,分别增加0.788%、0.884%、1.566%。随着我国能源消费量的增加,我国能源利用效率下降。这意味着:我国经济增长不再仅依赖能源消费量的增加,更需要通过提高能源利用效率来促进经济进一步发展。作为中国经济发展最新推动力的第三产业,降低能源依赖,提高能源利用效率的需求也很迫切。
From the perspective of the industry sector,a panel regression model was used to analyze panel data of 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)in China from 2008 to 2017.The relationship between the three industries reveals the sectoral energy intensity of the three industries at the stage of the energy intensity curve,and proposes an optimization path for the industrial structure that promotes economic growth.The research results show that:1)In 30 provinces,the GDP of the three industries and the energy intensity of their sectors are subject to individual random effect models and there is a long-term equilibrium negative correlation.That is,the energy intensity of the three industries in China is currently in a declining stage.Energy intensity is in the downward phase of an inverted U-shaped curve.2)The impact of energy utilization rate on the three industries is different,with the greatest impact on the tertiary industry.When the energy intensity of the sectors in the three industries decreases by 1%,the effect of the increase in GDP of the three industries increases in sequence,increasing by 0.788%,0.884%,and 1.566%respectively.With the increase of energy consumption in China,energy efficiency has declined,this means that economic growth no longer depends only on the increase in energy consumption in China,but also needs to promote the further development of the economy by improving energy efficiency.As a tertiary industry with the latest impetus for China’s economic development,the need to reduce energy dependence and improve energy efficiency is also urgent.
作者
高奥蕾
张华
倪昌城
乔洪洋
Gao Aolei;Zhang Hua;Ni Changcheng;Qiao Hongyang(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2020年第6期4-12,共9页
Coal Economic Research
基金
北京市社会科学基金(16GLC074)
关键词
能源强度曲线
部门能源强度
经济增长
面板数据
能源利用效率
energy intensity curve
sectoral energy intensity
economic growth
panel data
energy utilization efficiency
作者简介
高奥蕾(1999—),女,江西鹰潭人,主要研究方向为资源与环境经济学。E-mail:GaoAoLei_1221@163.com;通讯作者:张华(1983—),女,湖南衡阳人,博士,研究领域为环境经济与政策、数量经济学。E-mail:huazhang@cugb.edu.cn
