摘要
针对上市公司进行企业财务风险预测,以盈利能力、营运能力、成长能力、偿债能力4个角度等相关财务数据指标建立了直觉模糊预测模型。通过选取财务风险评价指标,利用数据固有的模糊性特征,建立财务风险直觉模糊预测模型,并通过不同参数因子获取不同聚类参数进行多次预测,以提高预测准确性。选取上市公司近8年财务数据,构建财务风险直觉模糊预测模型,通过验证表明,此模型能够充分考虑到固有数据的模糊性,提高了预测准确性,并与其他预测模型对比,将误差降低到了3.92%,从而企业可以根据历史财务信息有效开展财务风险预测工作,以便能够为企业日常运营中的战略方向、经营决策以及资源提供了可靠依据。
Aiming at the financial risk prediction of listed companies,an intuitionistic fuzzy prediction model is established from four angles of profitability,operation ability,growth ability and solvency.By selecting financial risk evaluation indicators,using the inherent fuzzy characteristics of the data,the financial risk intuitionistic fuzzy prediction model is established,and different clustering parameters are obtained through different parameter factors for multiple prediction,so as to improve the accuracy of prediction.This paper selects the financial data of Listed Companies in the past eight years,constructs the intuitionistic fuzzy prediction model of financial risk.The results show that the model can fully consider the fuzziness of inherent data,improve the accuracy of prediction,and reduce the error to 3.92%compared with other prediction models.Therefore,enterprises can effectively carry out financial risk prediction based on historical financial information,so as to provide a reliable basis for the strategic direction,business decision-making and resources in the daily operation of enterprises.
作者
赵宝福
王辛云
ZHAO Baofu;WANG Xinyun(School of Business Administration,Liaoning Technical University,Huludao 125105,China)
出处
《辽宁工程技术大学学报（社会科学版）》
2020年第1期17-23,共7页
Journal of Liaoning Technical University(Social Science Edition)
关键词
财务风险
直觉模糊
预测
时间序列
上市公司
financial risk
intuitionistic fuzzy
predict
time series
listed company
作者简介
赵宝福(1957-),男,辽宁昌图人,教授,主要从事区域经济学方面的研究。
