摘要
利用三峡库首区1971—2019年国家站和区域站逐日雨量和地质灾害个例数据,对三峡库首区诱发地质灾害的强降水特征进行分析,发现:(1)三峡库首区暴雨日数近50年来呈现增长趋势;暴雨主要集中在4—10月,暴雨日数发生最多的月份为7月和8月;地质灾害主要集中在5—10月发生,呈现出夏半年多、冬半年少的特征。(2)秭归降水量年变化最大,更容易出现干旱或洪涝,兴山降水量年变化最小。(3)三峡库首区汛期平均雨量呈现14a周期性波动,其次是9a周期性波动。主汛期平均雨量呈现9a周期性波动,其次是14a周期性波动。(4)三峡库首区主汛期雨量和地质灾害出现次数的相关性达0.468,说明主汛期降水偏多时,更容易出现较多的地质灾害。
Based on the daily rainfall and geological disaster case data of national and regional stations in the head area of the Three Gorges Reservoir from 1971 to 2019,the rainstorm characteristics,precipitation characteristics in flood season and geological disaster characteristics in the head area of the Three Gorges Reservoir are analyzed.It is found that(1)the number of rainstorm days in the head area of the Three Gorges Reservoir has shown an increasing trend in recent 50 years;The rainstorm mainly occurs from April to October,and the months with the most rainstorm days are July and August;Geological disasters mainly occur from May to October,showing the characteristics of more than half a year in summer and less than half a year in winter.(2)The annual variation of precipitation in Zigui is the largest,which is more prone to drought or flood,and the annual variation of precipitation in Xingshan is the smallest.(3)The average rainfall in the head area of the Three Gorges Reservoir fluctuates periodically in 14 years,followed by 9 years.The average rainfall in the main flood season fluctuates periodically in 9 years,followed by 14 years.(4)The correlation between the rainfall in the main flood season and the occurrence times of geological disasters in the head area of the Three Gorges Reservoir is 0.468,indicating that more geological disasters are more likely to occur when there is more precipitation in the main flood season.
作者
夏羽
陈鲜艳
李芳
罗剑琴
XIA Yu;CHEN Xianyan;LI Fang;LUO Jianqin(Yichang Meteorological Bureau,Yichang 443000,Hubei,China;National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《水利水电技术（中英文）》
北大核心
2022年第S01期100-106,共7页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z033)
水利部三峡局地气候监测项目(SK2021031)
中国地质调查局武汉地质调查中心委托项目(三峡库首区地质灾害气象精细化预报试点)
中央部门预算项目库区维护和管理基金“三峡工程运行安全综合监测系统”(2136703)
关键词
三峡库首区
暴雨特征
地质灾害
head area of Three Gorges Reservoir
rainstorm characteristics
geologic disaster
作者简介
夏羽(1987-),女,高级工程师,硕士,主要从事天气预报工作。E-mail:xiayu05qxi@163.com;通信作者:陈鲜艳(1975-),女,研究员,主要从事重大工程气候服务及极端旱涝监测。E-mail:chenxy@cma.gov.cn
