摘要
堤防工程在发挥防洪蓄水兴利效益的同时,其安全也关系到下游居民生命财产安全。为了更好的进行堤防风险管理,完善现有的风险分析方法,将人因因素引入风险分析理论,提出一种使用贝叶斯网络的堤防安全人因可靠性分析方法。论文通过研究众多历史溃决事故,构建人因失误影响因素集,研究事故中的人因失误基本路径,归类分析得出各阶段的主要影响因素,将所得模型与贝叶斯网络相结合,运用于具体堤防工程安全分析。研究得到包含人、技术、组织、环境四项分类的人因失误影响因素集,由监视觉察、状态诊断、计划制定、操作执行四个阶段构成的失误基本路径,贝叶斯网络根节点中的环境和安全文化节点最为敏感,管理人员的心理和素质因素对结果影响最为显著。结果表明,该模型不仅可以清晰描绘各因素之间的关系,明晰定量度量失误概率,并能辨识影响较大的原因以风险控制。我国应提高堤防工程中对于人因的重视,不断加强组织安全文化宣传,通过培训提高管理人员心理素质与专业技能。
When levee projects in the play of flood control,water storage and benefit benefits,their safety is also related to the lives and properties of downstream residents.In order to better manage embankment risk and improve existing risk analysis method,human factors were introduced into risk analysis theory and proposes a method for analyzing the human reliability of levee safety using Bayesian networks.The thesis constructs the set of human factors influencing errors by studying many historical breaching accidents,researches the basic path of human errors in the accidents,categorizes and analyzes the main influencing factors at each stage,and combines the obtained model with the Bayesian network,which is used in the safety analysis of specific embankment projects.The study obtained a set of human factors errors with four classifications:human,technology,organization,and environment,and a basic path of errors consisting of four phases:monitoring awareness,state diagnosis,plan formulation,and operation execution.The environment and safety culture nodes of the root nodes of the Bayesian network were the most sensitive,and the psychological and qualitative factors of the managers had the most significant impact on the result.The result show that the model can not only clearly depict the relationship between the factors,explicitly measure the probability of failure quantitatively,and identify the causes of high impact to risk control.The government should realize the importance of human factors in the embankment project,and constantly strengthen the organization safety culture propaganda and the psychological quality of managers and professional skills through training.
作者
王惠文
刘斌
厉丹丹
潘卫锋
WANG Huiwen;LIU Bin;LI Dandan;PAN Weifeng(Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,Jiangsu,China;Wuhan University,Wuhan 430000,Hubei,China;Jiangsu Luoyun Water Conservancy Project Management Office,Suqian 223800,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《水利水电技术（中英文）》
北大核心
2024年第S01期275-282,共8页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
江苏省水利科技项目(2021026)
关键词
堤防工程
人因可靠性
贝叶斯网络
人因失误
levee engineering
human factors reliability
Bayesian networks
human factors failure
作者简介
王惠文(1997—),女,博士研究生,主要从事大坝安全管理研究。E-mail:453590381@qq.com;通信作者:厉丹丹(1982—),女,正高级工程师,博士,主要从事大坝安全管理研究。E-mail:ddli@nhri.cn
