摘要
垂直关联产业生产性服务业和制造业间认知距离存在差异性.基于这一基本假设,将多样化指标进行熵值分解,从两大产业内多样化和产业间多样化两个方面对产业多样化水平进行重新界定.在此基础上,以长江经济带11省市为研究对象,建立了以知识溢出和投资组合为门槛变量的面板门槛模型.研究表明:产业内多样化对经济增长和经济稳定有明显的促进作用,产业间多样化则显著阻碍了经济增长和经济稳定.考虑门槛变量的影响,在知识溢出效应跨越第二个门槛之前,产业间多样化和经济增长显著负相关,当其跨越第三个门槛以后,产业内多样化和经济增长显著正相关;在投资组合效应跨越唯一门槛值以后,产业间多样化对经济稳定的阻碍作用占据主导,产业内多样化对经济稳定的促进作用逐渐消失.最后总结长江经济带6种发展动力类型,上海和浙江的发展动力最足,受到了知识溢出和投资组合的双重驱动.
Based on the basic assumption that there are differences in cognitive distance between vertical linked industries,this paper decomposes entropy and redefines the industrial diversity from the point of Intra-diversity(IntraD) and Inter-diversity(InterD) between producer services and manufacture.On this basis,taking the 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt as research object,this paper establishes panel threshold models with the knowledge spillover and portfolio being threshold variables.The study reveals that the growth and stability of economy are remarkably promoted by IntraD while hindered by InterD.Economic growth is correlated negatively with InterD before the second threshold of knowledge spillover effects and is correlated positively with IntraD after the third threshold.As the portfolio effect go beyond the only threshold,the economic growth is more impeded by IntraD rather than promoted by InterD.Based on such conclusions,six forces for development are summarized.The development momentum of Shanghai and Zhejiang is the most powerful,which is driven by both knowledge spillover effect and portfolio effect.
作者
陆剑锋
党耀国
LU Jian-feng;DANG Yao-guo(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;School of Marxism,Nantong University,Nantong 220019,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2020年第2期92-103,共12页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(71771119).
关键词
垂直关联产业
多样化
知识溢出
投资组合
面板门槛模型
vertical linked industries
industrial diversity
knowledge spillover
portfolio effect
panel threshold models
