摘要
肯尼亚地热发电潜力约为10GW。依据肯尼亚《2030年远景规划》,为了实现2030年达到装机容量5GW的目标,肯尼亚政府将鼓励在地热开发方面的投资。据测算,2030年前肯尼亚地热发电市场空间分别为1554MW(高)、1023MW(中)、682MW(低)。在肯尼亚投资地热发电项目符合其国家发展规划,政策环境较为有利。尽管如此,仍需针对具体地热发电投资项目,从政治、经济、法律和监管、政策、市场和价格、外汇、勘探和钻井、建设进度、电厂运营、安保等方面进行风险分析,以确保降低投资风险。
Geothermal power generation potential is about 10 GW in Kenya.On the basis of Kenya’s 2030 Vision Planning,in order to achieve the goal of 5 GW power generation and installation by 2030,the government of Kenya will encourage investment in geothermal development.According to the calculation analysis,in high,medium and low three scenario,the Kenyan geothermal power generation market spaces are 1554 MW,1023 MW and 682 MW respectively before 2030.Investment in Kenya geothermal power generation project conforms to the national development and planning,favorable policy environment.Even so,still need to target specific geothermal power generation investment projects,from the political risk,economic risk,legal and regulatory risk,policy risk,market and price risk,foreign exchange risk,exploration and drilling risk,construction schedule risk,power plant operation risk,security risk analysis,in order to ensure the reducing of the investment risk.
作者
赵旭
李颖
ZHAO Xu;LI Ying(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute,Beijing 100724,China;Beijing Branch of CNPC EastChina Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100029,China)
出处
《世界石油工业》
2020年第3期48-53,80,共7页
World Petroleum Industry
基金
中国石油科学研究与技术开发项目《肯尼亚高温地热开发技术研究与现场试验》(编号:2016 A-4801)
关键词
肯尼亚
地热发电
产业现状
投资风险
Kenya
geothermal power generation
industry present situation
investment risk
作者简介
第一作者:赵旭(1985-),男,工学博士,高级工程师,主要从事炼油、新能源等领域的技术发展战略研究工作。
