中国工业高质量发展生态及指数分析被引量：16

Analysis of the Ecology and Indexes of China’s Industrial High-Quality Development

导出

摘要以提质增效和五大发展理念为基础,构建中国工业高质量发展双循环指标体系。使用30个省市2011—2018年的46项指标,利用贝叶斯网络结构学习方法,解析质效扩散、创新驱动、要素配置和效应延伸等机制。进一步通过工业高质量发展指数来明晰发展趋势、区域分布和演进变化,探讨不同群落竞争力模式差异,为工业发展建言献策。研究发现,营商要素、就业比与工业产出关系密切,工业持续增长与效率、科技投入、能源环境有较大关联。互联网、金融等营商要素交融发展,工业规模和效率扩散路径明晰,与税收、就业等社会效益的交互作用显著。同时,存在工业创新产出增长依赖数量投入等浅层驱动,技术改造未能使能源环境向好发展等问题。 Based on the idea of improving quality and efficiency,as well as the five development concepts,this paper put forward the dual cycle index system of China’s industrial high-quality development.We used 46 indicators of 30 provinces and cities from2011 to 2018,applied the Bayesian network structural learning methods,and then analyzed the mechanisms of quality effect diffusion,innovation drive,factor allocation and effect extension.Further research clarified development trend,regional distribution and evolution changes though statistical indexes.And the discussion on the differences of competition models among clusters had provided some suggestions for industrial development.It was found that,business elements,employment ratio and industrial output had close relationship,and industrial continuous increase had close relation with efficiency,technology investment and energy environment.Besides,various business elements,like internet and finance,had increasingly intertwined together.And the paths of industrial scale and efficiency diffusion were clear,which also had the interactive effect with tax and employment.However,there were still some problems.For example,the increase of industrial innovative output relied on some shallow driving factors,like quality investment.And technical transformation hadn’t helped energy environment develop for the better.

作者车明佳赵彦云 CHE Ming-jia;ZHAO Yan-yun(School of Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区中国人民大学统计学院

出处《山西财经大学学报》 CSSCI 北大核心 2021年第4期1-16,共16页 Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基金教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(17JJD910001) 中国人民大学科学研究基金重大规划项目(17XNLG09)

关键词高质量发展发展生态双循环贝叶斯网络结构学习 high-quality development development ecology dual cycle Bayesian network structural learning

分类号 C829 [社会学—统计学]

作者简介车明佳(1992-),女,山西太原人,中国人民大学统计学院博士研究生,研究方向是经济统计、机器学习;赵彦云(1957-),男,天津武清人,中国人民大学杰出学者特聘教授,应用统计科学研究中心教授,统计学院博士生导师,研究方向是宏观经济统计分析、国际竞争力评价。