摘要
利用1978-2018年赤峰市与呼伦贝尔市共12个气象站点的气象观测数据,运用线性回归、滑动平均等方法分析两市降水及气温的变化特征,并结合M-K检验法以及Morlet小波分析法,对比分析两市气候干湿变化所带来的影响。结果表明:在气温方面,1978-2018年赤峰市与呼伦贝尔市年平均气温均呈波动上升趋势,上升增率分别为0.11、0.25℃/10a,两市年均气温均在1982年发生突变,年均气温变化主周期分别为14和10 a;在降水方面上,赤峰市年降水量增率为2.43 mm/10a,呼伦贝尔市为-9.76 mm/10a;夏季降水倾向率最为明显,两市分别为6.71、-11.09 mm/10a,两市年降水量均发生了多次突变,年降水量变化主周期分别为12和8 a;1978-2018年赤峰市气候向暖湿化发展,呼伦贝尔市气候则趋向暖干化,这对于处于农牧分界地带的两市农业生产有较大的影响,适时制定科学合理的农牧业规划十分必要。
The observation data of 12 meteorological stations in Chifeng City and Hulun Buir City from 1978 to 2018 were used to analyze the variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the two cities with methods of linear regression and sliding average.Moreover,the effects of dry and wet climate changes in the two cities were compared and analyzed using M-K test method and Morlet wavelet analysis method.The results showed that in terms of temperature,the average annual temperature of Chifeng and Hulun Buir showed a trend of fluctuated increase from 1978 to 2018,with the increase rates of 0.11℃/10 a and 0.25 ℃/10 a,respectively.The average annual temperature of the two cities changed dramatically in 1982,and the main cycle of average annual temperature change was 14 a and 10 a,respectively.In terms of precipitation,the increase rate of annual precipitation in Chifeng was 2.43 mm/10 a,and that in Hulun Buir was -9.76 mm/10 a,with the highest rate of precipitation inclination occurred in summer,which were 6.71 mm/10 a and-11.09 mm/10 a,respectively.The annual precipitation of the two cities has undergone several abrupt changes,and the main change cycles of annual precipitation were 12 a and 8 a,respectively.From 1978 to 2018,the climate of Chifeng City became warmer and wetter,whereas that of Hulun Buir City turned warmer and drier.These phenomena had a great impact on the agricultural production of the two cities located in the borderline between the lands of agriculture and animal husbandry.Therefore,it is necessary to formulate timely and practical plans for the agriculture and animal husbandry of these two cities.
作者
何文鑫
徐玉霞
马凯
齐建锋
陈倩
HE Wenxin;XU Yuxia;MA Kai;QI Jianfeng;CHEN Qian(College of Geography and Environment,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,China;Key Laboratory of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulation of Shaanxi Province,Baoji 721013,China)
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
CSCD
2020年第5期110-119,共10页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
陕西省社科界重大项目(2019C004)
陕西省教育科学十三五规划课题(SGH16H168)
宝鸡文理学院校级创新科研项目(YJSCX19YB10)
宝鸡文理学院校级重点项目(ZK2018009)
宝鸡文理学院研究生创新科研项目(YJSCX18YB04)
宝鸡文理学院院级大创项目(2018DHDC01)
宝鸡文理学院大学生创新创业训练计划项目(2017dc014)
陕西省重点学科自然地理学项目。
作者简介
何文鑫(1995-),男,甘肃定西人,硕士研究生,研究方向为气候变化与水循环;通讯作者:徐玉霞(1978-),女,陕西榆林人,副教授,研究方向为气候变化与区域防灾减灾。
