摘要
春运期间营业性客运量是旅客活跃程度的重要指标,合理预测春运期间营业性客运量为行业管理部门运力场站储备、应急调度工作提供重要依据。以重庆市春运期间为例,基于分析2014—2023年各方式客运量与春运期间各方式营业性客运量,构建基于线性回归理论的春运期间营业性客运量预测模型,并通过相关系数检验,得知春运期间各方式营业性客运量与上一年全年各方式客运量存在明显线形相关,并以2024年重庆春运期间营业性客运量进行验算,证明模型测算结果较为准确,为以后春运期间营业性客运量预测提供理论依据。
The operating passenger volume during the Spring Festival travel rush is an important indicator of passenger activity.Reasonably predicting the operating passenger volume during the Spring Festival travel rush provides an important basis for emergency dispatch by industry management departments and transportation station capacity reserves.This study takes Chongqing as an example,based on the analysis of the passenger traffic of various modes from 2014 to 2023 and the commercial passenger traffic of various modes during the Spring Festival travel period.A linear regression theory based model for predicting the operating passenger volume during the Spring Festival travel period is constructed,and through correlation coefficient testing,it is found that there is a significant linear correlation between the operating passenger volume of each mode during the Spring Festival travel period and the annual passenger volume of each mode in the previous year.The 2024 Chongqing Spring Festival travel period operating passenger volume is used for verification to prove the reliability of the model,providing a theoretical basis for predicting the operating passenger volume during the future Spring Festival travel period.
作者
陈林
周正
陈丹蕾
肖伟
张敏
CHEN Lin;ZHOU Zheng;CHEN Danlei;XIAO Wei;ZHANG Min(Chongqing Comprehensive Transportation Institute Co,Ltd,Chongqing 401121,China;Chongqing TMEC,Chongqing 401147,China)
出处
《交通与运输》
2024年第S01期134-137,146,共5页
Traffic & Transportation
关键词
交通运输
春运
线性回归
客运量预测
Transportation
Spring Festival travel rush
Linear regression
Passenger volume prediction
作者简介
第一作者:陈林(1993-),男,汉族,河南新乡人,硕士,工程师,主要研究方向:交通运输、物流规划。
