摘要
汇率制度选择问题一直都是国际金融学界的焦点论题。本文采用基于马尔可夫链的汇率制度模型,对1999~2018年全球汇率制度进行了梳理和分析,重点揭示了汇率制度的变化趋势和一些规律性,研究发现:硬钉住、中间和浮动汇率制度都具有很强的状态依赖性,中间汇率制度不仅没有消失,反而出现了占比扩大的趋势,多元化格局仍然是未来全球汇率制度体系的重要特征;全球汇率制度转型出现了明显变缓的现象,各个国家和地区存在害怕转型的特点;人民币汇率制度转型过程显示:自1994年全面实行人民币汇率制度改革以来,中国汇率制度已进入稳步调整的状态。
The choice of exchange rate regime has always been the focus in international finance.Using a Markov chain model of exchange rate regime transitions,this paper sorts out and analyses the global exchange rate regime from 1999 to 2018,mainly revealing the changing trend and some regularities of the exchange rate regime.The main findings are as follows:Firstly,hard pegs,intermediate exchange rate regimes and floating regimes are strongly state-dependent,and the intermediate exchange rate regimes have not disappeared,but shown a tendency to expand;the diversification pattern will still be an important feature of the global exchange rate regime.Secondly,the transitions of the exchange rate regime have slowed down significantly,and various economies are afraid of transitions.Finally,the process of the RMB exchange rate regime reform shows that China’s exchange rate regime has entered a state of steady adjustment since the full implementation of the RMB exchange rate regime reformed in 1994.
作者
崔瀚中
Cui Hanzhong(The Center for Economic Research,Shandong University,250100)
出处
《制度经济学研究》
2021年第2期228-252,共25页
Research on Institutional Economics
关键词
汇率制度
汇率制度转型
马尔可夫链
转移概率矩阵
Exchange Rate Regime
Exchange Rate Regime Transitions
Markov Chain
Transition Probability Matrix
作者简介
崔瀚中,山东大学经济研究院博士研究生,地址:(250100)山东省济南市山大南路27号山东大学(中心校区)经济研究院,E-mail:cuihanzhong19@163.com。
