摘要
新安全格局的构建为应对不确定性风险日益增加的严峻形势指明了方向,清晰不同突发公共事件中的多发风险差异、个性风险差异以及共性风险情况,梳理归纳出风险间相互作用的相依、相异、相溢关系,能更好地服务于应对思路与策略的提炼,依据主、客观维度可以将治理者的思路概括为已知的已知、已知的未知、未知的已知和未知的未知这四种情况,而应对策略可以从风险萌发期的底线策略、风险扩散期的阻断策略以及风险转化期的增韧策略这三个方面着手。
The construction of a new security architecture points out the direction for coping with the severe situation of growing uncertainties and risks.It is of great importance to differentiate the scenarios of the multiple risk factors,specific risks and common risks in different public emergencies,and identify the interdependency,differences,and spillover effects between different risks,so as to help us sort out countermeasures and strategies to respond to them.In subjective and objective dimensions,risk managers face four scenarios:known the known,known the unknown,unknown the known,and unknown the unknown,and countermeasures should be made accordingly in the following three aspects:bottom line strategy in the incipient stage of risks,blocking strategy in the diffusion stage,and resilience strategy in the transformation stage.
作者
张春颜
姜伟
ZHANG Chunyan;JIANG Wei(School of Economics and Management,Tiangong University,Tianjin 300387)
出处
《中国延安干部学院学报》
2022年第6期43-54,共12页
Journal of China Executive Leadership Academy Yan’an
基金
2020年国家社会科学基金一般项目“大规模突发公共卫生事件情境下衍生社会风险的预警与防控研究”(20BGL250)
关键词
突发公共事件
风险差异
风险间关系
应对策略
public emergencies
risk differences
interrelationship between risks
countermeasure
作者简介
张春颜,天津工业大学经济与管理学院、公共危机管理研究所教授、硕士生导师;姜伟,天津工业大学经济与管理学院硕士研究生。
