摘要
高职院校作为高素质技能人才培养的重要阵地,优化其专业结构与区域产业结构的适配性对于区域经济高质量发展具有重要作用。以招生大类专业毕业生比例作为专业调整的指标,利用相关分析、回归分析、时间序列分析和预测等,对湖南省三次产业结构和高职院校对应大类毕业生规模进行定量分析,建立起轻工纺织大类、装备制造大类等七个专业大类毕业生比例和产业比重之间的回归方程。利用时间序列预测法中的自适应过滤法预测2022-2026年湖南省三次产业的GDP数据,代入相应回归方程对相关专业招生规模进行调整分析,最终提出湖南省高职专业发展策略:建立专业动态调整机制;严控社会需求量小、就业率低的专业;组建和打造特色专业群。
As an important place for cultivating high-quality skilled talents,optimizing the suitability specialty structure of higher vocational colleges to the regional industrial structure plays an important role in the high-quality development of the regional economy.Taking the proportion of graduates of enrolled major categories as the index of specialty adjustment,we use correlation analysis,regression analysis,time series analysis and prediction to quantitatively analyze the structure of three industries in Hunan Province and the scale of graduates of corresponding major categories in higher vocational colleges,and establish the regression equation between the proportion of graduates of seven major categories and the proportion of industries,such as light industry and textile major categories and equipment manufacturing major categories.Using the adaptive filtering method in the time series forecasting method to predict the GDP data of three industries in Hunan Province from 2022 to 2026,the enrollment scale of relevant majors is adjusted by substituting it into the corresponding regression equation.Finally,we propose the development strategies for higher vocational majors in Hunan Province:establishing a dynamic adjustment mechanism of majors;strictly controlling majors with low social demand and low employment rate;forming and creating special specialty groups.
作者
潘海燕
杨璇
Pan Haiyan;Yang Xuan(Hunan Vocational College of Commerce,Changsha 410205)
出处
《职业技术教育》
北大核心
2023年第2期12-17,共6页
Vocational and Technical Education
基金
湖南省教育厅科学研究项目“基于市场需求导向的高职院校统计类课程教学改革研究”(21C1246),主持人:潘海燕
关键词
产业结构
高职专业结构
自适应过滤法
湖南省
industrial structure
specialty structure of higher vocational education
adaptive filtering method
Hunan Province
作者简介
潘海燕(1989-),女,湖南商务职业技术学院统计与会计教研室副主任,统计师(长沙,410205);杨璇(1991-),女,湖南商务职业技术学院教师
