The article intends to find a method to quantify traffic congestion＇s impacts on travelers to help transportation planners and policy decision makers well understand congestion situations. Three new congestion indica...The article intends to find a method to quantify traffic congestion＇s impacts on travelers to help transportation planners and policy decision makers well understand congestion situations. Three new congestion indicators, including transportation environment satisfaction （TES）, travel time satisfaction （TTS）, and traffic congestion frequency and feeling （TCFF）, are defined to estimate urban traffic congestion based on travelers＇ feelings. Data of travelers＇ attitude about congestion and trip information were collected from a survey in Shanghai, China. Based on the survey data, we estimated the value of the three indi- cators. Then, the principal components analysis was used to derive a small number of linear combinations of a set of variables to estimate the whole congestion status. A linear regression model was used to find out the significant variables which impact respondents＇ feelings. Two ordered logit models were used to select significant variables of TES and TTS. Attitudinal factor variables were also used in these models. The results show that attitudinal factor variables and cluster category variables are as important as sociodemographic variables in the models. Using the three congestion indicators, the government can collect travelers＇ feeling about traffic congestion and estimate the transportation policy that might be applied to cope with traffic congestion.展开更多
Discrete choice model acts as one of the most important tools for studies involving mode split in the context of transport demand forecast. As different types of discrete choice models display their merits and restric...Discrete choice model acts as one of the most important tools for studies involving mode split in the context of transport demand forecast. As different types of discrete choice models display their merits and restrictions diversely, how to properly select the specific type among discrete choice models for realistic application still remains to be a tough problem. In this article, five typical discrete choice models for transport mode split are, respectively, discussed, which includes multinomial logit model, nested logit model （NL）, heteroscedastic extreme value model, multinominal probit model and mixed multinomial logit model （MMNL）. The theoretical basis and application attributes of these five models are especially analysed with great attention, and they are also applied to a realistic intercity case of mode split forecast, which results indi- cating that NL model does well in accommodating similarity and heterogeneity across alternatives, while MMNL model serves as the most effective method for mode choice prediction since it shows the highest reliability with the least significant prediction errors and even outperforms the other four models in solving the heterogeneity and similarity problems. This study indicates that conclusions derived from a single discrete choice model are not reliable, and it is better to choose the proper model based on its characteristics.展开更多
基金supported by the Key Natural Science Foundation of China:Urban Transportation Planning Theory and Methods under the Information Environment, Grant No. 50738004/E0807
文摘The article intends to find a method to quantify traffic congestion＇s impacts on travelers to help transportation planners and policy decision makers well understand congestion situations. Three new congestion indicators, including transportation environment satisfaction （TES）, travel time satisfaction （TTS）, and traffic congestion frequency and feeling （TCFF）, are defined to estimate urban traffic congestion based on travelers＇ feelings. Data of travelers＇ attitude about congestion and trip information were collected from a survey in Shanghai, China. Based on the survey data, we estimated the value of the three indi- cators. Then, the principal components analysis was used to derive a small number of linear combinations of a set of variables to estimate the whole congestion status. A linear regression model was used to find out the significant variables which impact respondents＇ feelings. Two ordered logit models were used to select significant variables of TES and TTS. Attitudinal factor variables were also used in these models. The results show that attitudinal factor variables and cluster category variables are as important as sociodemographic variables in the models. Using the three congestion indicators, the government can collect travelers＇ feeling about traffic congestion and estimate the transportation policy that might be applied to cope with traffic congestion.
基金supported by the Science&Technology pillar project(No.0556)of Guangzhou
文摘Discrete choice model acts as one of the most important tools for studies involving mode split in the context of transport demand forecast. As different types of discrete choice models display their merits and restrictions diversely, how to properly select the specific type among discrete choice models for realistic application still remains to be a tough problem. In this article, five typical discrete choice models for transport mode split are, respectively, discussed, which includes multinomial logit model, nested logit model （NL）, heteroscedastic extreme value model, multinominal probit model and mixed multinomial logit model （MMNL）. The theoretical basis and application attributes of these five models are especially analysed with great attention, and they are also applied to a realistic intercity case of mode split forecast, which results indi- cating that NL model does well in accommodating similarity and heterogeneity across alternatives, while MMNL model serves as the most effective method for mode choice prediction since it shows the highest reliability with the least significant prediction errors and even outperforms the other four models in solving the heterogeneity and similarity problems. This study indicates that conclusions derived from a single discrete choice model are not reliable, and it is better to choose the proper model based on its characteristics.
