We study a finite number of independent random walks with subexponentially distributed increments and negative drifts.We extend the one-dimensional results to finite and fully general stopping times.Assuming that the ...We study a finite number of independent random walks with subexponentially distributed increments and negative drifts.We extend the one-dimensional results to finite and fully general stopping times.Assuming that the distribution of the lengths of these intervals is relatively light compared to the distribution of the increments of the random walks,we derive the asymptotic tail distribution of the partial maximum sum over the random time interval.展开更多
This paper employs system dynamics to explore how the synergy between technology management and technological capability affects new product development.The results show that the synergy between technology management ...This paper employs system dynamics to explore how the synergy between technology management and technological capability affects new product development.The results show that the synergy between technology management and technological capability has positive impact on new product development.Moreover, the leading synergy processes between technology management and technological capability in different new product development stages are different.This paper deepens the theoretical understanding of how to achieve new product development, and also provides useful guidance for firms to implement new product development.展开更多
Technology management is recognized as a key for organizations to achieve competitiveness. How to promote an organization’s technology management capability is of great significance in creating efficiencies and achie...Technology management is recognized as a key for organizations to achieve competitiveness. How to promote an organization’s technology management capability is of great significance in creating efficiencies and achieving a competitive edge. The knowledge essence of technology management capability is introduced and then the correlation between knowledge diffusion and the development of technology management capability is discussed. Further, the basic and extended dynamic models of the development of technology management capability are constructed, and is applied into an enterprise. The results show that the dynamic models can well explain how the knowledge improves the development of technology management capability, and they can be used as an useful tool by an enterprise to promote technology management capability. Finally, the managerial implications of the models are discussed.展开更多
Industrial and academic interest in how to effectively manage technology resources is increasing as it becomes more and more important.Effective managing of technology resources depends on technology management system...Industrial and academic interest in how to effectively manage technology resources is increasing as it becomes more and more important.Effective managing of technology resources depends on technology management system,and thus understanding how such system evolves becomes an ongoing research topic.Based on the self-organization theory,this paper constructs an evolution model of technology management system.The simulation results show that the evolution of each of the technology management subsystem is affected by the knowledge growth rate of its own,and it is also affected by the coupling and synergy relationship with other subsystems.Moreover,the coupling and synergy relationship can make the speed of evolution higher than the knowledge growth rate of the subsystem itself.展开更多
The paper discusses the barriers of integration of management systems （IMS）. A model based on process is explored, It is indicated that integrating management systems should not ignore the characteristics of the man...The paper discusses the barriers of integration of management systems （IMS）. A model based on process is explored, It is indicated that integrating management systems should not ignore the characteristics of the management systems, especially scope issues. IMS needs to take into the continuous improvement.展开更多
As the mining industry continues to expand and international oil prices increase,more rigorous demands are being placed on the design of mining equipment.Given this,there is an urgent need to develop new power-driven ...As the mining industry continues to expand and international oil prices increase,more rigorous demands are being placed on the design of mining equipment.Given this,there is an urgent need to develop new power-driven mining equipment to solve the problems of high energy consumption and insufficient power coupling of current equipment.This study proposed a design of a hybrid power system for underground Load Haul Dump(LHD).The proposed design integrated Quality Function Deployment(QFD)and Theory of Inventive Problem Solving(TRIZ).It identified 7 user requirements and 10 related technical features,formulated 11 innovative design solutions,and ultimately adopting an electric drive hybrid power scheme.This scheme effectively addressesd power transmission coupling problems and improve the efficiency of loaders.A 6 m³hybrid power loader prototype has been developed,which reduces operational energy consumption and advances the electrification and green,low-carbon evolution of mining equipment.展开更多
Social interaction with peer pressure is widely studied in social network analysis.Game theory can be utilized to model dynamic social interaction,and one class of game network models assumes that people’s decision p...Social interaction with peer pressure is widely studied in social network analysis.Game theory can be utilized to model dynamic social interaction,and one class of game network models assumes that people’s decision payoff functions hinge on individual covariates and the choices of their friends.However,peer pressure would be misidentified and induce a non-negligible bias when incomplete covariates are involved in the game model.For this reason,we develop a generalized constant peer effects model based on homogeneity structure in dynamic social networks.The new model can effectively avoid bias through homogeneity pursuit and can be applied to a wider range of scenarios.To estimate peer pressure in the model,we first present two algorithms based on the initialize expand merge method and the polynomial-time twostage method to estimate homogeneity parameters.Then we apply the nested pseudo-likelihood method and obtain consistent estimators of peer pressure.Simulation evaluations show that our proposed methodology can achieve desirable and effective results in terms of the community misclassification rate and parameter estimation error.We also illustrate the advantages of our model in the empirical analysis when compared with a benchmark model.展开更多
Advertising avoidance is resistance to advertising intrusion.This issue has been the subject of much academic research in recent years.To guide scholars to better carry out relevant research and promote enterprises to...Advertising avoidance is resistance to advertising intrusion.This issue has been the subject of much academic research in recent years.To guide scholars to better carry out relevant research and promote enterprises to better implement advertising activities,this study intends to summarize the relevant research on advertising avoidance in recent years.The specific method is to use the core literature meta-analysis method to identify,filter,and screen relevant literature published in core journals from 1997 to 2020 with the keywords advertising avoidance and advertising resistance.We review the collected articles from the following perspectives:the definition and classification,external stimulating factors,internal perception factors,and moderating factors of advertising avoidance.On this basis,the SOMR model of advertising avoidance is constructed according to the SOR model.Finally,some prospects for future related research are presented.展开更多
Referral systems are widely used to coordinate heterogeneous healthcare providers(e.g.,general hospitals(GHs)and community healthcare centers(CHCs))for improved efficiency.This paper investigates referral coordination...Referral systems are widely used to coordinate heterogeneous healthcare providers(e.g.,general hospitals(GHs)and community healthcare centers(CHCs))for improved efficiency.This paper investigates referral coordination within a typical two-tiered system centered around a general hospital(GH)and a community healthcare center(CHC).Specifically,we compare the coordination value of two prevalent mechanisms:one-way referral and two-way referral.We develop a queueing-theoretic model to derive optimal capacity and pricing decisions for the GH and the CHC under each mechanism and then evaluate their relative effectiveness,with key metrics including total system profit,healthcare service prices,and patient waiting times.Our base model yields two key findings.First,counterintuitively,under certain conditions,the one-way referral mechanism can outperform both the two-way mechanism and a non-coordinated baseline.Second,within the one-way framework,full cooperation between the GH and CHCs can lead to a Pareto improvement,benefiting all stakeholders(i.e.,the GH,the CHCs,and the patients).This finding is based on an analysis extended to a system of one GH and multiple CHCs,where we show how a profit allocation scheme can be designed to foster such cooperation.Further analysis of a congested system with referral-dependent arrival rates reveals that the two-way mechanism becomes unequivocally superior.Finally,numerical studies confirm that optimal profits across all scenarios increase with the arrival rates of both severe patients in the GH and common patients in the CHCs.展开更多
The impact of extreme temperatures on the health of individuals in different organizations remains uncertain.We employed stratified analyses to examine the impacts of summer(April-September)daily maximum temperatures ...The impact of extreme temperatures on the health of individuals in different organizations remains uncertain.We employed stratified analyses to examine the impacts of summer(April-September)daily maximum temperatures and winter(October-March)daily minimum temperatures on blood pressure and lipid profiles across government staff,com-pany employees,and researchers.We examined 209,477 physical examination records from a physical examination center in the First Affiliated Hospital of USTC from 2017 to 2021.Employing a segmented regression model within the frame-work of generalized linear regression(GLM),we examined the causal impact of extreme temperatures on health outcomes.Additionally,sensitivity analyses were conducted via distributed lag nonlinear models(DLNMs),with a focus on ob-serving the long-term effects over a period of 21 days.Our findings indicate that government staff face increased health risks during extremely low temperatures,regardless of the season.Compared with participants experiencing median tem-peratures,government staff exposed to extremely low temperatures(below the 10th percentile,below 24℃)in the sum-mer presented maximum increases of 2.32 mmHg(95%CI:1.542-3.098)in diastolic blood pressure and 6.481 mmHg(95%CI:5.368-7.594)in systolic blood pressure.In winter,government staff exposed to temperatures below the 10th per-centile(below 1℃)demonstrated maximum increases of 0.278 mmol/L(95%CI:0.210-0.346)in total cholesterol,0.153 mmol/L(95%CI:0.032-0.274)in triglycerides,and 0.077 mmol/L(95%CI:0.192-0.134)in low-density lipoprotein.Conversely,warm winters benefit company employees,whereas researchers exhibit lower sensitivity to temperature changes in winter.The maximum temperatures in summer and minimum temperatures in winter had greater impacts on in-dividuals.Small temperature fluctuations impact health more than large changes do.Notably,both the maximum and min-imum temperatures were better predictors of health outcomes than the daily average temperature was.Blood pressure con-sistently displayed significant associations with temperature across all three groups,with extremely low temperatures in-creasing the risk and extremely high temperatures reducing it.However,the relationship between temperature and blood lipids is complex.展开更多
Objective:This study aimed to evaluate the cost–effectiveness of durvalumab combined with tremelimumab versus sorafenib as the first-line treatment for advanced unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma(uHCC)from the per...Objective:This study aimed to evaluate the cost–effectiveness of durvalumab combined with tremelimumab versus sorafenib as the first-line treatment for advanced unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma(uHCC)from the perspective of China’s healthcare system.Methods:Utilizing data from the HIMALAYA clinical trial,a partitioned survival model was developed to simulate clinical pathways,costs,and outcomes.Incremental cost‒effectiveness ratios(ICERs)were calculated through cost‒utility analysis,with robustness assessed via one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.Results:Total costs for the durvalumab‒tremelimumab regimen reached 152,729.04 USD(1.96 quality-adjusted life years,QALYs),whereas they reached 147,406.75 USD(1.48 QALYs)for sorafenib.The ICER of 11,027.79 USD per QALY remained substantially below China’s willingness-to-pay(WTP)threshold of 36,622.13 USD per QALY.Sensitivity analyses confirmed tremelimumab pricing and discount rates as primary determinants of cost‒effectiveness.Conclusion:Within China’s healthcare framework,durvalumab‒tremelimumab is cost effective as a first-line therapy for uHCC,contingent on formulary inclusion and price adjustments.展开更多
Cutting off or controlling the enemy’s power supply at critical moments or strategic locations may result in a cascade failure,thus gaining an advantage in a war.However,the exist-ing cascading failure modeling analy...Cutting off or controlling the enemy’s power supply at critical moments or strategic locations may result in a cascade failure,thus gaining an advantage in a war.However,the exist-ing cascading failure modeling analysis of interdependent net-works is insufficient for describing the load characteristics and dependencies of subnetworks,and it is difficult to use for model-ing and failure analysis of power-combat(P-C)coupling net-works.This paper considers the physical characteristics of the two subnetworks and studies the mechanism of fault propaga-tion between subnetworks and across systems.Then the surviv-ability of the coupled network is evaluated.Firstly,an integrated modeling approach for the combat system and power system is predicted based on interdependent network theory.A heteroge-neous one-way interdependent network model based on proba-bility dependence is constructed.Secondly,using the operation loop theory,a load-capacity model based on combat-loop betweenness is proposed,and the cascade failure model of the P-C coupling system is investigated from three perspectives:ini-tial capacity,allocation strategy,and failure mechanism.Thirdly,survivability indexes based on load loss rate and network sur-vival rate are proposed.Finally,the P-C coupling system is con-structed based on the IEEE 118-bus system to demonstrate the proposed method.展开更多
Efficient multiple unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)path planning is crucial for improving mission completion efficiency in UAV operations.However,during the actual flight of UAVs,the flight time between nodes is always ...Efficient multiple unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)path planning is crucial for improving mission completion efficiency in UAV operations.However,during the actual flight of UAVs,the flight time between nodes is always influenced by external factors,making the original path planning solution ineffective.In this paper,the multi-depot multi-UAV path planning problem with uncertain flight time is modeled as a robust optimization model with a budget uncertainty set.Then,the robust optimization model is transformed into a mixed integer linear programming model by the strong duality theorem,which makes the problem easy to solve.To effectively solve large-scale instances,a simulated annealing algorithm with a robust feasibility check(SA-RFC)is developed.The numerical experiment shows that the SA-RFC can find high-quality solutions within a few seconds.Moreover,the effect of the task location distribution,depot counts,and variations in robustness parameters on the robust optimization solution is analyzed by using Monte Carlo experiments.The results demonstrate that the proposed robust model can effectively reduce the risk of the UAV failing to return to the depot without significantly compromising the profit.展开更多
To solve the uncertain multi-attribute group decision-making of unknown attribute weights,three optimal models are built to decide the corresponding ideal solution weights,standard deviation weights and mean deviation...To solve the uncertain multi-attribute group decision-making of unknown attribute weights,three optimal models are built to decide the corresponding ideal solution weights,standard deviation weights and mean deviation weights.The comprehensive attribute weights are gotten through the product of the above three kinds of weights.And each decision maker＇s weighted decision matrices are also received by using the integrated attribute weights.The closeness degrees are also gotten by use of technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution（TOPSIS） through dealing with the weighted decision matrices.At the same time the group decision matrix and weighted group decision matrix are gotten by using each decision-maker＇s closeness degree to every project.Then the vertical TOPSIS method is used to calculate the closeness degree of each project.So these projects can be ranked according to their values of the closeness degree.The process of the method is also given step by step.Finally,a numerical example demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the approach.展开更多
The cross-efficiency evaluation method is reviewed which is developed as a data envelopment analysis(DEA)extensive tool.The cross-efficiency evaluation method is utilized to identify the decision making unit(DMU)with ...The cross-efficiency evaluation method is reviewed which is developed as a data envelopment analysis(DEA)extensive tool.The cross-efficiency evaluation method is utilized to identify the decision making unit(DMU)with the best practice and to rank the DMUs by their respective cross-efficiency scores.The main drawbacks of the cross-efficiency evaluation method when the ultimate average cross-efficiency scores are used to evalu-ate and rank the DMUs are also pointed out.With the research gap,an improved technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)is introduced to rank the crossfficiency by eliminating the average assumption.Finally,an empirical example is illustrated to examine the validity of the proposed method.展开更多
Due to people’s increasing dependence on social networks,it is essential to develop a consensus model considering not only their own factors but also the interaction between people.Both external trust relationship am...Due to people’s increasing dependence on social networks,it is essential to develop a consensus model considering not only their own factors but also the interaction between people.Both external trust relationship among experts and the internal reliability of experts are important factors in decision-making.This paper focuses on improving the scientificity and effectiveness of decision-making and presents a consensus model combining trust relationship among experts and expert reliability in social network group decision-making(SN-GDM).A concept named matching degree is proposed to measure expert reliability.Meanwhile,linguistic information is applied to manage the imprecise and vague information.Matching degree is expressed by a 2-tuple linguistic model,and experts’preferences are measured by a probabilistic linguistic term set(PLTS).Subsequently,a hybrid weight is explored to weigh experts’importance in a group.Then a consensus measure is introduced and a feedback mechanism is developed to produce some personalized recommendations with higher group consensus.Finally,a comparative example is provided to prove the scientificity and effectiveness of the proposed consensus model.展开更多
The fuzzy non-cooperative game with fuzzy payoff function is studied. Based on fuzzy set theory with game theory, the fuzzy Nash equilibrium of fuzzy non-cooperative games is proposed. Most of researchers rank fuzzy n...The fuzzy non-cooperative game with fuzzy payoff function is studied. Based on fuzzy set theory with game theory, the fuzzy Nash equilibrium of fuzzy non-cooperative games is proposed. Most of researchers rank fuzzy number by its center of gravity or by the real number with its maximal membership. By reducing fuzzy number into a real number, we lose much fuzzy information that should be kept during the operations between fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy quantities or alternatives are ordered directly by Yuan＇s binary fuzzy ordering relation. In doing so, the existence of fuzzy Nash equilibrium for fuzzy non-cooperative games is shown based on the utility function and the crisp Nash theorem. Finally, an illustrative example in traffic flow patterns of equilibrium is given in order to show the detailed calculation process of fuzzy Nash equilibrium.展开更多
The weighted arithmetical mean complex judgement matrix （WAMCJM） is the most common method for aggregating group opinions, but it has a shortcoming, namely the WAMCJM of the perfectly consistent judgement matrices g...The weighted arithmetical mean complex judgement matrix （WAMCJM） is the most common method for aggregating group opinions, but it has a shortcoming, namely the WAMCJM of the perfectly consistent judgement matrices given by experts canot guarantee its perfect consistency. An upper bound of the WAMCJM＇s consistency is presented. Simultaneously, a compatibility index of judging the aggregating extent of group opinions is also introduced. The WAMCJM is of acceptable consistency and is proved provided the compatibilities of all judgement matrices given by experts are smaller than the threshold value of acceptable consistency. These conclusions are important to group decision making.展开更多
基金supported by Xinjiang Normal University Outstanding Young Teacher Research Launch Fund Project(Grant No.XJNU202116)。
文摘We study a finite number of independent random walks with subexponentially distributed increments and negative drifts.We extend the one-dimensional results to finite and fully general stopping times.Assuming that the distribution of the lengths of these intervals is relatively light compared to the distribution of the increments of the random walks,we derive the asymptotic tail distribution of the partial maximum sum over the random time interval.
基金supported by the Heilongjiang Philosophy and Social Science Research Project (19GLB087)。
文摘This paper employs system dynamics to explore how the synergy between technology management and technological capability affects new product development.The results show that the synergy between technology management and technological capability has positive impact on new product development.Moreover, the leading synergy processes between technology management and technological capability in different new product development stages are different.This paper deepens the theoretical understanding of how to achieve new product development, and also provides useful guidance for firms to implement new product development.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70972089 71002061)+4 种基金the National Science Foundation for Postdoctoral Scientists of China (20090460896)the Science Foundation for Young Scholars of Heilongjiang Province(QC2009C109)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (HIT.NSRIF.2009110)the Science Foundation for Postdoctoral Scientists of Heilongjiang Province (LBH-Z09138)the Development Program for Outstanding Young Teachers in Harbin Institute of Technology (HITQNJS.2008.037)
文摘Technology management is recognized as a key for organizations to achieve competitiveness. How to promote an organization’s technology management capability is of great significance in creating efficiencies and achieving a competitive edge. The knowledge essence of technology management capability is introduced and then the correlation between knowledge diffusion and the development of technology management capability is discussed. Further, the basic and extended dynamic models of the development of technology management capability are constructed, and is applied into an enterprise. The results show that the dynamic models can well explain how the knowledge improves the development of technology management capability, and they can be used as an useful tool by an enterprise to promote technology management capability. Finally, the managerial implications of the models are discussed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72072047)the Humanities and Social Sciences Project of Ministry of Education(20YJC630090)+1 种基金Heilongjiang Philosophy and Social Science Research Project(19GLB087)the Science and Technology Program of Hebei Province(20557688D)。
文摘Industrial and academic interest in how to effectively manage technology resources is increasing as it becomes more and more important.Effective managing of technology resources depends on technology management system,and thus understanding how such system evolves becomes an ongoing research topic.Based on the self-organization theory,this paper constructs an evolution model of technology management system.The simulation results show that the evolution of each of the technology management subsystem is affected by the knowledge growth rate of its own,and it is also affected by the coupling and synergy relationship with other subsystems.Moreover,the coupling and synergy relationship can make the speed of evolution higher than the knowledge growth rate of the subsystem itself.
文摘The paper discusses the barriers of integration of management systems （IMS）. A model based on process is explored, It is indicated that integrating management systems should not ignore the characteristics of the management systems, especially scope issues. IMS needs to take into the continuous improvement.
文摘As the mining industry continues to expand and international oil prices increase,more rigorous demands are being placed on the design of mining equipment.Given this,there is an urgent need to develop new power-driven mining equipment to solve the problems of high energy consumption and insufficient power coupling of current equipment.This study proposed a design of a hybrid power system for underground Load Haul Dump(LHD).The proposed design integrated Quality Function Deployment(QFD)and Theory of Inventive Problem Solving(TRIZ).It identified 7 user requirements and 10 related technical features,formulated 11 innovative design solutions,and ultimately adopting an electric drive hybrid power scheme.This scheme effectively addressesd power transmission coupling problems and improve the efficiency of loaders.A 6 m³hybrid power loader prototype has been developed,which reduces operational energy consumption and advances the electrification and green,low-carbon evolution of mining equipment.
基金supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(71771201,72531009,71973001)the USTC Research Funds of the Double First-Class Initiative(FSSF-A-240202).
文摘Social interaction with peer pressure is widely studied in social network analysis.Game theory can be utilized to model dynamic social interaction,and one class of game network models assumes that people’s decision payoff functions hinge on individual covariates and the choices of their friends.However,peer pressure would be misidentified and induce a non-negligible bias when incomplete covariates are involved in the game model.For this reason,we develop a generalized constant peer effects model based on homogeneity structure in dynamic social networks.The new model can effectively avoid bias through homogeneity pursuit and can be applied to a wider range of scenarios.To estimate peer pressure in the model,we first present two algorithms based on the initialize expand merge method and the polynomial-time twostage method to estimate homogeneity parameters.Then we apply the nested pseudo-likelihood method and obtain consistent estimators of peer pressure.Simulation evaluations show that our proposed methodology can achieve desirable and effective results in terms of the community misclassification rate and parameter estimation error.We also illustrate the advantages of our model in the empirical analysis when compared with a benchmark model.
文摘Advertising avoidance is resistance to advertising intrusion.This issue has been the subject of much academic research in recent years.To guide scholars to better carry out relevant research and promote enterprises to better implement advertising activities,this study intends to summarize the relevant research on advertising avoidance in recent years.The specific method is to use the core literature meta-analysis method to identify,filter,and screen relevant literature published in core journals from 1997 to 2020 with the keywords advertising avoidance and advertising resistance.We review the collected articles from the following perspectives:the definition and classification,external stimulating factors,internal perception factors,and moderating factors of advertising avoidance.On this basis,the SOMR model of advertising avoidance is constructed according to the SOR model.Finally,some prospects for future related research are presented.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72222015,72171215,72101243)Key Funds for Youth Innovation of University of Science and Technology of China(YD2040002018).
文摘Referral systems are widely used to coordinate heterogeneous healthcare providers(e.g.,general hospitals(GHs)and community healthcare centers(CHCs))for improved efficiency.This paper investigates referral coordination within a typical two-tiered system centered around a general hospital(GH)and a community healthcare center(CHC).Specifically,we compare the coordination value of two prevalent mechanisms:one-way referral and two-way referral.We develop a queueing-theoretic model to derive optimal capacity and pricing decisions for the GH and the CHC under each mechanism and then evaluate their relative effectiveness,with key metrics including total system profit,healthcare service prices,and patient waiting times.Our base model yields two key findings.First,counterintuitively,under certain conditions,the one-way referral mechanism can outperform both the two-way mechanism and a non-coordinated baseline.Second,within the one-way framework,full cooperation between the GH and CHCs can lead to a Pareto improvement,benefiting all stakeholders(i.e.,the GH,the CHCs,and the patients).This finding is based on an analysis extended to a system of one GH and multiple CHCs,where we show how a profit allocation scheme can be designed to foster such cooperation.Further analysis of a congested system with referral-dependent arrival rates reveals that the two-way mechanism becomes unequivocally superior.Finally,numerical studies confirm that optimal profits across all scenarios increase with the arrival rates of both severe patients in the GH and common patients in the CHCs.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72072169)the Fundamental Re-search Funds for the Central Universities(YD2040002015).
文摘The impact of extreme temperatures on the health of individuals in different organizations remains uncertain.We employed stratified analyses to examine the impacts of summer(April-September)daily maximum temperatures and winter(October-March)daily minimum temperatures on blood pressure and lipid profiles across government staff,com-pany employees,and researchers.We examined 209,477 physical examination records from a physical examination center in the First Affiliated Hospital of USTC from 2017 to 2021.Employing a segmented regression model within the frame-work of generalized linear regression(GLM),we examined the causal impact of extreme temperatures on health outcomes.Additionally,sensitivity analyses were conducted via distributed lag nonlinear models(DLNMs),with a focus on ob-serving the long-term effects over a period of 21 days.Our findings indicate that government staff face increased health risks during extremely low temperatures,regardless of the season.Compared with participants experiencing median tem-peratures,government staff exposed to extremely low temperatures(below the 10th percentile,below 24℃)in the sum-mer presented maximum increases of 2.32 mmHg(95%CI:1.542-3.098)in diastolic blood pressure and 6.481 mmHg(95%CI:5.368-7.594)in systolic blood pressure.In winter,government staff exposed to temperatures below the 10th per-centile(below 1℃)demonstrated maximum increases of 0.278 mmol/L(95%CI:0.210-0.346)in total cholesterol,0.153 mmol/L(95%CI:0.032-0.274)in triglycerides,and 0.077 mmol/L(95%CI:0.192-0.134)in low-density lipoprotein.Conversely,warm winters benefit company employees,whereas researchers exhibit lower sensitivity to temperature changes in winter.The maximum temperatures in summer and minimum temperatures in winter had greater impacts on in-dividuals.Small temperature fluctuations impact health more than large changes do.Notably,both the maximum and min-imum temperatures were better predictors of health outcomes than the daily average temperature was.Blood pressure con-sistently displayed significant associations with temperature across all three groups,with extremely low temperatures in-creasing the risk and extremely high temperatures reducing it.However,the relationship between temperature and blood lipids is complex.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12231017,72171216,12171449)the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFA1003803)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(WK3470000027)the Innovative Development Funds of Anhui Province Federation of Social Sciences(2022CX081).
文摘Objective:This study aimed to evaluate the cost–effectiveness of durvalumab combined with tremelimumab versus sorafenib as the first-line treatment for advanced unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma(uHCC)from the perspective of China’s healthcare system.Methods:Utilizing data from the HIMALAYA clinical trial,a partitioned survival model was developed to simulate clinical pathways,costs,and outcomes.Incremental cost‒effectiveness ratios(ICERs)were calculated through cost‒utility analysis,with robustness assessed via one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.Results:Total costs for the durvalumab‒tremelimumab regimen reached 152,729.04 USD(1.96 quality-adjusted life years,QALYs),whereas they reached 147,406.75 USD(1.48 QALYs)for sorafenib.The ICER of 11,027.79 USD per QALY remained substantially below China’s willingness-to-pay(WTP)threshold of 36,622.13 USD per QALY.Sensitivity analyses confirmed tremelimumab pricing and discount rates as primary determinants of cost‒effectiveness.Conclusion:Within China’s healthcare framework,durvalumab‒tremelimumab is cost effective as a first-line therapy for uHCC,contingent on formulary inclusion and price adjustments.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72271242)Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China for Excellent Young Scholars(2022JJ20046).
文摘Cutting off or controlling the enemy’s power supply at critical moments or strategic locations may result in a cascade failure,thus gaining an advantage in a war.However,the exist-ing cascading failure modeling analysis of interdependent net-works is insufficient for describing the load characteristics and dependencies of subnetworks,and it is difficult to use for model-ing and failure analysis of power-combat(P-C)coupling net-works.This paper considers the physical characteristics of the two subnetworks and studies the mechanism of fault propaga-tion between subnetworks and across systems.Then the surviv-ability of the coupled network is evaluated.Firstly,an integrated modeling approach for the combat system and power system is predicted based on interdependent network theory.A heteroge-neous one-way interdependent network model based on proba-bility dependence is constructed.Secondly,using the operation loop theory,a load-capacity model based on combat-loop betweenness is proposed,and the cascade failure model of the P-C coupling system is investigated from three perspectives:ini-tial capacity,allocation strategy,and failure mechanism.Thirdly,survivability indexes based on load loss rate and network sur-vival rate are proposed.Finally,the P-C coupling system is con-structed based on the IEEE 118-bus system to demonstrate the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72571094,72271076,71871079)。
文摘Efficient multiple unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)path planning is crucial for improving mission completion efficiency in UAV operations.However,during the actual flight of UAVs,the flight time between nodes is always influenced by external factors,making the original path planning solution ineffective.In this paper,the multi-depot multi-UAV path planning problem with uncertain flight time is modeled as a robust optimization model with a budget uncertainty set.Then,the robust optimization model is transformed into a mixed integer linear programming model by the strong duality theorem,which makes the problem easy to solve.To effectively solve large-scale instances,a simulated annealing algorithm with a robust feasibility check(SA-RFC)is developed.The numerical experiment shows that the SA-RFC can find high-quality solutions within a few seconds.Moreover,the effect of the task location distribution,depot counts,and variations in robustness parameters on the robust optimization solution is analyzed by using Monte Carlo experiments.The results demonstrate that the proposed robust model can effectively reduce the risk of the UAV failing to return to the depot without significantly compromising the profit.
基金supported by the Research Innovation Project of Shanghai Education Committee (08YS19)the Excellent Young Teacher Project of Shanghai University
文摘To solve the uncertain multi-attribute group decision-making of unknown attribute weights,three optimal models are built to decide the corresponding ideal solution weights,standard deviation weights and mean deviation weights.The comprehensive attribute weights are gotten through the product of the above three kinds of weights.And each decision maker＇s weighted decision matrices are also received by using the integrated attribute weights.The closeness degrees are also gotten by use of technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution（TOPSIS） through dealing with the weighted decision matrices.At the same time the group decision matrix and weighted group decision matrix are gotten by using each decision-maker＇s closeness degree to every project.Then the vertical TOPSIS method is used to calculate the closeness degree of each project.So these projects can be ranked according to their values of the closeness degree.The process of the method is also given step by step.Finally,a numerical example demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the approach.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China for Innovative Research Groups(70821001),the National Natural Science Foundation of China(70901069)the Special Fund for the Gainers of Excellent Ph.D.'s Dissertations and Dean's Scholarships of Chinese Academy of Sciences,the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China for New Teachers(20093402120013)+1 种基金the Research Fund for the Excellent Youth Scholars of Higher School of Anhui Province of China(2010SQRW001ZD)the Social Science Research Fund for Higher School of Anhui Province of China
文摘The cross-efficiency evaluation method is reviewed which is developed as a data envelopment analysis(DEA)extensive tool.The cross-efficiency evaluation method is utilized to identify the decision making unit(DMU)with the best practice and to rank the DMUs by their respective cross-efficiency scores.The main drawbacks of the cross-efficiency evaluation method when the ultimate average cross-efficiency scores are used to evalu-ate and rank the DMUs are also pointed out.With the research gap,an improved technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)is introduced to rank the crossfficiency by eliminating the average assumption.Finally,an empirical example is illustrated to examine the validity of the proposed method.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71871121).
文摘Due to people’s increasing dependence on social networks,it is essential to develop a consensus model considering not only their own factors but also the interaction between people.Both external trust relationship among experts and the internal reliability of experts are important factors in decision-making.This paper focuses on improving the scientificity and effectiveness of decision-making and presents a consensus model combining trust relationship among experts and expert reliability in social network group decision-making(SN-GDM).A concept named matching degree is proposed to measure expert reliability.Meanwhile,linguistic information is applied to manage the imprecise and vague information.Matching degree is expressed by a 2-tuple linguistic model,and experts’preferences are measured by a probabilistic linguistic term set(PLTS).Subsequently,a hybrid weight is explored to weigh experts’importance in a group.Then a consensus measure is introduced and a feedback mechanism is developed to produce some personalized recommendations with higher group consensus.Finally,a comparative example is provided to prove the scientificity and effectiveness of the proposed consensus model.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70771010)
文摘The fuzzy non-cooperative game with fuzzy payoff function is studied. Based on fuzzy set theory with game theory, the fuzzy Nash equilibrium of fuzzy non-cooperative games is proposed. Most of researchers rank fuzzy number by its center of gravity or by the real number with its maximal membership. By reducing fuzzy number into a real number, we lose much fuzzy information that should be kept during the operations between fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy quantities or alternatives are ordered directly by Yuan＇s binary fuzzy ordering relation. In doing so, the existence of fuzzy Nash equilibrium for fuzzy non-cooperative games is shown based on the utility function and the crisp Nash theorem. Finally, an illustrative example in traffic flow patterns of equilibrium is given in order to show the detailed calculation process of fuzzy Nash equilibrium.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (705250047047103570121001).
文摘The weighted arithmetical mean complex judgement matrix （WAMCJM） is the most common method for aggregating group opinions, but it has a shortcoming, namely the WAMCJM of the perfectly consistent judgement matrices given by experts canot guarantee its perfect consistency. An upper bound of the WAMCJM＇s consistency is presented. Simultaneously, a compatibility index of judging the aggregating extent of group opinions is also introduced. The WAMCJM is of acceptable consistency and is proved provided the compatibilities of all judgement matrices given by experts are smaller than the threshold value of acceptable consistency. These conclusions are important to group decision making.
基金Manuscript received March 5, 2010 accepted March 2, 2011 Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （61004103）, National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China （20100111110005）, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation （20090460742）, and Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province of China （090412058, 11040606Q44）
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China（61473176,61105077,61402260,61074149） the Excellent Young and Middle-Aged Scientist Award Grant of Shandong Province of China（BS2012DX026,BS2013DX043） the Open Program from theState Key Laboratory of Management and Control for Complex Systems（20140102）
