In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to pro...In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.展开更多
The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce...The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.展开更多
To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method...To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.展开更多
This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is establi...This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.展开更多
This paper introduces an innovative approach to the synchronized demand-capacity balance with special focus on sector capacity uncertainty within a centrally controlled collaborative air traffic flow management(ATFM)f...This paper introduces an innovative approach to the synchronized demand-capacity balance with special focus on sector capacity uncertainty within a centrally controlled collaborative air traffic flow management(ATFM)framework.Further with previous study,the uncertainty in capacity is considered as a non-negligible issue regarding multiple reasons,like the impact of weather,the strike of air traffic controllers(ATCOs),the military use of airspace and the spatiotemporal distribution of nonscheduled flights,etc.These recessive factors affect the outcome of traffic flow optimization.In this research,the focus is placed on the impact of sector capacity uncertainty on demand and capacity balancing(DCB)optimization and ATFM,and multiple options,such as delay assignment and rerouting,are intended for regulating the traffic flow.A scenario optimization method for sector capacity in the presence of uncertainties is used to find the approximately optimal solution.The results show that the proposed approach can achieve better demand and capacity balancing and determine perfect integer solutions to ATFM problems,solving large-scale instances(24 h on seven capacity scenarios,with 6255 flights and 8949 trajectories)in 5-15 min.To the best of our knowledge,our experiment is the first to tackle large-scale instances of stochastic ATFM problems within the collaborative ATFM framework.展开更多
Strabismus significantly impacts human health as a prevalent ophthalmic condition.Early detection of strabismus is crucial for effective treatment and prognosis.Traditional deep learning models for strabismus detectio...Strabismus significantly impacts human health as a prevalent ophthalmic condition.Early detection of strabismus is crucial for effective treatment and prognosis.Traditional deep learning models for strabismus detection often fail to estimate prediction certainty precisely.This paper employed a Bayesian deep learning algorithm with knowledge distillation,improving the model's performance and uncertainty estimation ability.Trained on 6807 images from two tertiary hospitals,the model showed significantly higher diagnostic accuracy than traditional deep-learning models.Experimental results revealed that knowledge distillation enhanced the Bayesian model’s performance and uncertainty estimation ability.These findings underscore the combined benefits of using Bayesian deep learning algorithms and knowledge distillation,which improve the reliability and accuracy of strabismus diagnostic predictions.展开更多
Hue-Saturation-Intensity （HSI） color model, a psychologically appealing color model, was employed to visualize uncertainty represented by relative prediction error based on the case of spatial prediction of pH of to...Hue-Saturation-Intensity （HSI） color model, a psychologically appealing color model, was employed to visualize uncertainty represented by relative prediction error based on the case of spatial prediction of pH of topsoil in the peri-urban Beijing. A two-dimensional legend was designed to accompany the visualization-vertical axis （hues） for visualizing the predicted values and horizontal axis （whiteness） for visualizing the prediction error. Moreover, different ways of visualizing uncertainty were briefly reviewed in this paper. This case study indicated that visualization of both predictions and prediction uncertainty offered a possibility to enhance visual exploration of the data uncertainty and to compare different prediction methods or predictions of totally different variables. The whitish region of the visualization map can be simply interpreted as unsatisfactory prediction results, where may need additional samples or more suitable prediction models for a better prediction results.展开更多
Background: The increasing availability of remotely sensed data has recently challenged the traditional way of performing forest inventories, and induced an interest in model-based inference. Like traditional design-b...Background: The increasing availability of remotely sensed data has recently challenged the traditional way of performing forest inventories, and induced an interest in model-based inference. Like traditional design-based inference, model-based inference allows for regional estimates of totals and means, but in addition for wall-to-wall mapping of forest characteristics. Recently Light Detection and Ranging(LiDAR)-based maps of forest attributes have been developed in many countries and been well received by users due to their accurate spatial representation of forest resources. However, the correspondence between such mapping and model-based inference is seldom appreciated. In this study we applied hierarchical model-based inference to produce aboveground biomass maps as well as maps of the corresponding prediction uncertainties with the same spatial resolution. Further, an estimator of mean biomass at regional level, and its uncertainty, was developed to demonstrate how mapping and regional level assessment can be combined within the framework of model-based inference.Results: Through a new version of hierarchical model-based estimation, allowing models to be nonlinear, we accounted for uncertainties in both the individual tree-level biomass models and the models linking plot level biomass predictions with LiDAR metrics. In a 5005 km2 large study area in south-central Sweden the predicted aboveground biomass at the level of 18 m×18 m map units was found to range between 9 and 447 Mg·ha^-1. The corresponding root mean square errors ranged between 10 and 162 Mg·ha^-1. For the entire study region, the mean aboveground biomass was 55 Mg·ha^-1 and the corresponding relative root mean square error 8%. At this level 75%of the mean square error was due to the uncertainty associated with tree-level models.Conclusions: Through the proposed method it is possible to link mapping and estimation within the framework of model-based inference. Uncertainties in both tree-level biomass models and models linking plot level biomass with LiDAR data are accounted for, both for the uncertainty maps and the overall estimates. The development of hierarchical model-based inference to handle nonlinear models was an important prerequisite for the study.展开更多
With the development of carbon electricity,achieving a low-carbon economy has become a prevailing and inevitable trend.Improving low-carbon expansion generation planning is critical for carbon emission mitigation and ...With the development of carbon electricity,achieving a low-carbon economy has become a prevailing and inevitable trend.Improving low-carbon expansion generation planning is critical for carbon emission mitigation and a lowcarbon economy.In this paper,a two-layer low-carbon expansion generation planning approach considering the uncertainty of renewable energy at multiple time scales is proposed.First,renewable energy sequences considering the uncertainty in multiple time scales are generated based on the Copula function and the probability distribution of renewable energy.Second,a two-layer generation planning model considering carbon trading and carbon capture technology is established.Specifically,the upper layer model optimizes the investment decision considering the uncertainty at a monthly scale,and the lower layer one optimizes the scheduling considering the peak shaving at an hourly scale and the flexibility at a 15-minute scale.Finally,the results of different influence factors on low-carbon generation expansion planning are compared in a provincial power grid,which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.展开更多
Based on the model which couples the projectile and gun barrel during an interior ballistic cycle,the uncertainty propagation analysis of the model is presented caused by the uncertainty of the input parameters.The Bo...Based on the model which couples the projectile and gun barrel during an interior ballistic cycle,the uncertainty propagation analysis of the model is presented caused by the uncertainty of the input parameters.The Bootstrap method is employed to calculate the statistical moments(i.e.the mean,variance,skewness coefficient and kurtosis coefficient)of the parameters of the projectile.Meanwhile,the maximum entropy method is used to estimate the probability density function(PDF)and the cumulative density function(CDF),the interval of the parameters of the projectile are also given.Moreover,the results obtained are compared to the results calculated by Monte Carlo(MC)method to verify the effectiveness of the presented method.Finally,the rule and the uncertainty propagation model of the projectile-barrel coupling system are given with the variation of the uncertainties of the input parameters.展开更多
The financing strategies for a coal-electricity supply chain in which the coal company has capital constraint and faces yield uncertainty were studied. We propose an advance payment mechanism: in the coal company'...The financing strategies for a coal-electricity supply chain in which the coal company has capital constraint and faces yield uncertainty were studied. We propose an advance payment mechanism: in the coal company's initial production period, the electricity company provides advance payment to the coal company, and the coal company pays interest to the electricity company as the risk compensation. The optimal operation strategies for the coal company and the electricity company under the advance payment mechanism are derived and compared with those under the bank loan financing case. We find that,the expected profit functions of the coal company and the electricity company under the advance payment mechanism are the same with those under the case that the coal company has enough capital;under the advance payment mechanism, the profits of the coal company and the electricity company are higher than those under the bank financing case. We also discuss the compensation interest rate of the advance payment and the ordering and production quantities under the advance payment mechanism.展开更多
The estimation of lower atmospheric refractivity from radar sea clutter（RFC） is a complicated nonlinear optimization problem.This paper deals with the RFC problem in a Bayesian framework.It uses the unbiased Markov ...The estimation of lower atmospheric refractivity from radar sea clutter（RFC） is a complicated nonlinear optimization problem.This paper deals with the RFC problem in a Bayesian framework.It uses the unbiased Markov Chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） sampling technique,which can provide accurate posterior probability distributions of the estimated refractivity parameters by using an electromagnetic split-step fast Fourier transform terrain parabolic equation propagation model within a Bayesian inversion framework.In contrast to the global optimization algorithm,the Bayesian-MCMC can obtain not only the approximate solutions,but also the probability distributions of the solutions,that is,uncertainty analyses of solutions.The Bayesian-MCMC algorithm is implemented on the simulation radar sea-clutter data and the real radar seaclutter data.Reference data are assumed to be simulation data and refractivity profiles are obtained using a helicopter.The inversion algorithm is assessed（i） by comparing the estimated refractivity profiles from the assumed simulation and the helicopter sounding data;（ii） the one-dimensional（1D） and two-dimensional（2D） posterior probability distribution of solutions.展开更多
Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a hig...Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the reserve estimation, and in consequence to the whole mine planning procedure. Real option approach is an efficient method of decision making in the uncertain conditions. This approach has been used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects until now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for reserve estimation in open pit mines. This study was done on a copper cylindrical deposit, but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of deposits. This methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in such a manner that can be used by the mine planners.展开更多
Uncertainty in 3D geological structure models has become a bottleneck that restricts the development and application of 3D geological modeling.In order to solve this problem during periods of accuracy assessment,error...Uncertainty in 3D geological structure models has become a bottleneck that restricts the development and application of 3D geological modeling.In order to solve this problem during periods of accuracy assessment,error detection and dynamic correction in 3D geological structure models,we have reviewed the current situation and development trends in 3D geological modeling.The main context of uncertainty in 3D geological structure models is discussed.Major research issues and a general framework system of uncertainty in 3D geological structure models are proposed.We have described in detail the integration of development practices of 3D geological modeling systems,as well as the implementation process for uncertainty evaluation in 3D geological structure models.This study has laid the basis to build theoretical and methodological systems for accuracy assessment and error correction in 3D geological models and can assist in improving 3D modeling techniques under complex geological conditions.展开更多
This paper presents a modified sliding mode control for fractional-order chaotic economical systems with parameter uncertainty and external disturbance. By constructing the suitable sliding mode surface with fractiona...This paper presents a modified sliding mode control for fractional-order chaotic economical systems with parameter uncertainty and external disturbance. By constructing the suitable sliding mode surface with fractional-order integral, the effective sliding mode controller is designed to realize the asymptotical stability of fractional-order chaotic economical systems. Comparing with the existing results, the main results in this paper are more practical and rigorous. Simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed sliding mode control method.展开更多
Deposition of fluvial sandbodies is controlled mainly by characteristics of the system, such as the rate of avulsion and aggradation of the fluvial channels and their geometry. The impact and the interaction of these ...Deposition of fluvial sandbodies is controlled mainly by characteristics of the system, such as the rate of avulsion and aggradation of the fluvial channels and their geometry. The impact and the interaction of these parameters have not received adequate attention. In this paper, the impact of geological uncertainty resulting from the interpretation of the fluvial geometry, maximum depth of channels, and their avulsion rates on primary production is studied for fluvial reservoirs. Several meandering reservoirs were generated using a process-mimicking package by varying several con- trolling factors. Simulation results indicate that geometrical parameters of the fluvial channels impact cumulative pro- duction during primary production more significantly than their avulsion rate. The most significant factor appears to be the maximum depth of fluvial channels. The overall net-to-gross ratio is closely correlated with the cumulative oil production of the field, but cumulative production values for individual wells do not appear to be correlated with the local net-to-gross ratio calculated in the vicinity of each well. Connectedness of the sandbodies to each well, defined based on the minimum time-of-flight from each block to the well, appears to be a more reliable indicator of well-scale production.展开更多
Production optimization has gained increasing attention from the smart oilfield community because it can increase economic benefits and oil recovery substantially.While existing methods could produce high-optimality r...Production optimization has gained increasing attention from the smart oilfield community because it can increase economic benefits and oil recovery substantially.While existing methods could produce high-optimality results,they cannot be applied to real-time optimization for large-scale reservoirs due to high computational demands.In addition,most methods generally assume that the reservoir model is deterministic and ignore the uncertainty of the subsurface environment,making the obtained scheme unreliable for practical deployment.In this work,an efficient and robust method,namely evolutionaryassisted reinforcement learning(EARL),is proposed to achieve real-time production optimization under uncertainty.Specifically,the production optimization problem is modeled as a Markov decision process in which a reinforcement learning agent interacts with the reservoir simulator to train a control policy that maximizes the specified goals.To deal with the problems of brittle convergence properties and lack of efficient exploration strategies of reinforcement learning approaches,a population-based evolutionary algorithm is introduced to assist the training of agents,which provides diverse exploration experiences and promotes stability and robustness due to its inherent redundancy.Compared with prior methods that only optimize a solution for a particular scenario,the proposed approach trains a policy that can adapt to uncertain environments and make real-time decisions to cope with unknown changes.The trained policy,represented by a deep convolutional neural network,can adaptively adjust the well controls based on different reservoir states.Simulation results on two reservoir models show that the proposed approach not only outperforms the RL and EA methods in terms of optimization efficiency but also has strong robustness and real-time decision capacity.展开更多
A moving target tracking control problem for marching tank based on adaptive robust feedback control scheme is addressed.A series of preparations is needed for tank gun before shooting a target,the purpose of this pap...A moving target tracking control problem for marching tank based on adaptive robust feedback control scheme is addressed.A series of preparations is needed for tank gun before shooting a target,the purpose of this paper is to design a control system to fulfill two requirements in this process:the turretbarrel system of tank needs to be adjusted from off-target position to command position and point to the moving target stably when there are strong uncertainties(modeling error,uncertain disturbance with unknown boundaries and road excitation) in the system.Considering the characteristic of coupled interaction,the first thing we do in this paper is to build a coupled analysis model of turret-barrel system with uncertainty term in state-space form.Second,an adaptive robust feedback control scheme is proposed by adding adaptive law to overcome the uncertainty.Third,multi-body dynamics software is used to establish the mechanical mechanism of the tank,and DC-motor module is established in SIMULINK environment,thus the target information and tracking error of the control system is collected and transferred,the gear-ball screw is derived directly by the output torque of the DC-motor module.Finally,the control system and the 3D model are combined together by means of Recur Dyn/SIMULINK co-simulation,the turret-barrel system of tank can approximately track the moving target in a certain range.With the adaptive robust feedback control,the target action is completely followed when the target location is constantly changing.展开更多
An uncertainty principle(UP),which offers information about a signal and its Fourier transform in the time-frequency plane,is particularly powerful in mathematics,physics and signal processing community.Under the pola...An uncertainty principle(UP),which offers information about a signal and its Fourier transform in the time-frequency plane,is particularly powerful in mathematics,physics and signal processing community.Under the polar coordinate form of quaternion-valued signals,the UP of the two-sided quaternion linear canonical transform(QLCT)is strengthened in terms of covariance.The condition giving rise to the equal relation of the derived result is obtained as well.The novel UP with covariance can be regarded as one in a tighter form related to the QLCT.It states that the product of spreads of a quaternion-valued signal in the spatial domain and the QLCT domain is bounded by a larger lower bound.展开更多
In open-pit mines,pit slope as one of the important parameters affects the mine economy and total minable reserve,and it is also affected by different uncertainties which arising from many sources.One of the most crit...In open-pit mines,pit slope as one of the important parameters affects the mine economy and total minable reserve,and it is also affected by different uncertainties which arising from many sources.One of the most critical sources of uncertainty effects on the pit slope design is rock mass geomechanical properties.By comparing the probability of failure resulted from deterministic procedure and probabilistic one,this paper investigated the effects of aforesaid uncertainties on open-pit slope stability in metal mines.In this way,to reduce the effect of variance,it implemented Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS)technique.Furthermore,a hypothesis test was exerted to compare the effects on two cases in Middle East.Subsequently,the investigation approved high influence of geomechanical uncertainties on overall pit steepness and stability in both iron and copper mines,though on the first case the effects were just over.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11472137 and U2141246)。
文摘In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.
基金This work was supported financially by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12375176).
文摘The phenomenology involved in severe accidents in nuclear reactors is highly complex.Currently,integrated analysis programs used for severe accident analysis heavily rely on custom empirical parameters,which introduce considerable uncertainty.Therefore,in recent years,the field of severe accidents has shifted its focus toward applying uncertainty analysis methods to quantify uncertainty in safety assessment programs,known as“best estimate plus uncertainty(BEPU).”This approach aids in enhancing our comprehension of these programs and their further development and improvement.This study concentrates on a third-generation pressurized water reactor equipped with advanced active and passive mitigation strategies.Through an Integrated Severe Accident Analysis Program(ISAA),numerical modeling and uncertainty analysis were conducted on severe accidents resulting from large break loss of coolant accidents.Seventeen uncertainty parameters of the ISAA program were meticulously screened.Using Wilks'formula,the developed uncertainty program code,SAUP,was employed to carry out Latin hypercube sampling,while ISAA was employed to execute batch calculations.Statistical analysis was then conducted on two figures of merit,namely hydrogen generation and the release of fission products within the pressure vessel.Uncertainty calculations revealed that hydrogen production and the fraction of fission product released exhibited a normal distribution,ranging from 182.784 to 330.664 kg and from 15.6 to 84.3%,respectively.The ratio of hydrogen production to reactor thermal power fell within the range of 0.0578–0.105.A sensitivity analysis was performed for uncertain input parameters,revealing significant correlations between the failure temperature of the cladding oxide layer,maximum melt flow rate,size of the particulate debris,and porosity of the debris with both hydrogen generation and the release of fission products.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 52175099)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2020M671494)+1 种基金the Jiangsu Planned Projects for Postdoctoral Research Funds(Grant No.2020Z179)the Nanjing University of Science and Technology Independent Research Program(Grant No.30920021105)。
文摘To improve the hit probability of tank at high speed,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on adaptive robust constraint-following control and interval uncertainty analysis is proposed.The method proposed provides a novel way to predict the impact point of projectile for moving tank.First,bidirectional stability constraints and stability constraint-following error are constructed using the Udwadia-Kalaba theory,and an adaptive robust constraint-following controller is designed considering uncertainties.Second,the exterior ballistic ordinary differential equation with uncertainties is integrated into the controller,and the pointing control of stability system is extended to the impact-point control of projectile.Third,based on the interval uncertainty analysis method combining Chebyshev polynomial expansion and affine arithmetic,a prediction method of projectile-target intersection is proposed.Finally,the co-simulation experiment is performed by establishing the multi-body system dynamic model of tank and mathematical model of control system.The results demonstrate that the prediction method of projectile-target intersection based on uncertainty analysis can effectively decrease the uncertainties of system,improve the prediction accuracy,and increase the hit probability.The adaptive robust constraint-following control can effectively restrain the uncertainties caused by road excitation and model error.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11472137).
文摘This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.
文摘This paper introduces an innovative approach to the synchronized demand-capacity balance with special focus on sector capacity uncertainty within a centrally controlled collaborative air traffic flow management(ATFM)framework.Further with previous study,the uncertainty in capacity is considered as a non-negligible issue regarding multiple reasons,like the impact of weather,the strike of air traffic controllers(ATCOs),the military use of airspace and the spatiotemporal distribution of nonscheduled flights,etc.These recessive factors affect the outcome of traffic flow optimization.In this research,the focus is placed on the impact of sector capacity uncertainty on demand and capacity balancing(DCB)optimization and ATFM,and multiple options,such as delay assignment and rerouting,are intended for regulating the traffic flow.A scenario optimization method for sector capacity in the presence of uncertainties is used to find the approximately optimal solution.The results show that the proposed approach can achieve better demand and capacity balancing and determine perfect integer solutions to ATFM problems,solving large-scale instances(24 h on seven capacity scenarios,with 6255 flights and 8949 trajectories)in 5-15 min.To the best of our knowledge,our experiment is the first to tackle large-scale instances of stochastic ATFM problems within the collaborative ATFM framework.
基金supported in part by the Guangdong Natu-ral Science Foundation(No.2022A1515011396)in part by the National Key R and D Program of China(No.2021ZD0111502)in part by the Science Research Startup Foundation of Shantou University(No.NTF20021)。
文摘Strabismus significantly impacts human health as a prevalent ophthalmic condition.Early detection of strabismus is crucial for effective treatment and prognosis.Traditional deep learning models for strabismus detection often fail to estimate prediction certainty precisely.This paper employed a Bayesian deep learning algorithm with knowledge distillation,improving the model's performance and uncertainty estimation ability.Trained on 6807 images from two tertiary hospitals,the model showed significantly higher diagnostic accuracy than traditional deep-learning models.Experimental results revealed that knowledge distillation enhanced the Bayesian model’s performance and uncertainty estimation ability.These findings underscore the combined benefits of using Bayesian deep learning algorithms and knowledge distillation,which improve the reliability and accuracy of strabismus diagnostic predictions.
基金Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Frontier Project of Institute of Soil Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.ISSASIP0716 )the National Nature Science Foundation of China ( No.40701070,40571065)
文摘Hue-Saturation-Intensity （HSI） color model, a psychologically appealing color model, was employed to visualize uncertainty represented by relative prediction error based on the case of spatial prediction of pH of topsoil in the peri-urban Beijing. A two-dimensional legend was designed to accompany the visualization-vertical axis （hues） for visualizing the predicted values and horizontal axis （whiteness） for visualizing the prediction error. Moreover, different ways of visualizing uncertainty were briefly reviewed in this paper. This case study indicated that visualization of both predictions and prediction uncertainty offered a possibility to enhance visual exploration of the data uncertainty and to compare different prediction methods or predictions of totally different variables. The whitish region of the visualization map can be simply interpreted as unsatisfactory prediction results, where may need additional samples or more suitable prediction models for a better prediction results.
基金Funding was provided by the Swedish NFI Development Foundationthe Swedish Kempe Foundation (SMK-1847)。
文摘Background: The increasing availability of remotely sensed data has recently challenged the traditional way of performing forest inventories, and induced an interest in model-based inference. Like traditional design-based inference, model-based inference allows for regional estimates of totals and means, but in addition for wall-to-wall mapping of forest characteristics. Recently Light Detection and Ranging(LiDAR)-based maps of forest attributes have been developed in many countries and been well received by users due to their accurate spatial representation of forest resources. However, the correspondence between such mapping and model-based inference is seldom appreciated. In this study we applied hierarchical model-based inference to produce aboveground biomass maps as well as maps of the corresponding prediction uncertainties with the same spatial resolution. Further, an estimator of mean biomass at regional level, and its uncertainty, was developed to demonstrate how mapping and regional level assessment can be combined within the framework of model-based inference.Results: Through a new version of hierarchical model-based estimation, allowing models to be nonlinear, we accounted for uncertainties in both the individual tree-level biomass models and the models linking plot level biomass predictions with LiDAR metrics. In a 5005 km2 large study area in south-central Sweden the predicted aboveground biomass at the level of 18 m×18 m map units was found to range between 9 and 447 Mg·ha^-1. The corresponding root mean square errors ranged between 10 and 162 Mg·ha^-1. For the entire study region, the mean aboveground biomass was 55 Mg·ha^-1 and the corresponding relative root mean square error 8%. At this level 75%of the mean square error was due to the uncertainty associated with tree-level models.Conclusions: Through the proposed method it is possible to link mapping and estimation within the framework of model-based inference. Uncertainties in both tree-level biomass models and models linking plot level biomass with LiDAR data are accounted for, both for the uncertainty maps and the overall estimates. The development of hierarchical model-based inference to handle nonlinear models was an important prerequisite for the study.
基金supported partly by the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFA0702200)the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company(520604190002)。
文摘With the development of carbon electricity,achieving a low-carbon economy has become a prevailing and inevitable trend.Improving low-carbon expansion generation planning is critical for carbon emission mitigation and a lowcarbon economy.In this paper,a two-layer low-carbon expansion generation planning approach considering the uncertainty of renewable energy at multiple time scales is proposed.First,renewable energy sequences considering the uncertainty in multiple time scales are generated based on the Copula function and the probability distribution of renewable energy.Second,a two-layer generation planning model considering carbon trading and carbon capture technology is established.Specifically,the upper layer model optimizes the investment decision considering the uncertainty at a monthly scale,and the lower layer one optimizes the scheduling considering the peak shaving at an hourly scale and the flexibility at a 15-minute scale.Finally,the results of different influence factors on low-carbon generation expansion planning are compared in a provincial power grid,which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.
文摘Based on the model which couples the projectile and gun barrel during an interior ballistic cycle,the uncertainty propagation analysis of the model is presented caused by the uncertainty of the input parameters.The Bootstrap method is employed to calculate the statistical moments(i.e.the mean,variance,skewness coefficient and kurtosis coefficient)of the parameters of the projectile.Meanwhile,the maximum entropy method is used to estimate the probability density function(PDF)and the cumulative density function(CDF),the interval of the parameters of the projectile are also given.Moreover,the results obtained are compared to the results calculated by Monte Carlo(MC)method to verify the effectiveness of the presented method.Finally,the rule and the uncertainty propagation model of the projectile-barrel coupling system are given with the variation of the uncertainties of the input parameters.
基金supported by the Project of Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education of China (No.16YJC630090)
文摘The financing strategies for a coal-electricity supply chain in which the coal company has capital constraint and faces yield uncertainty were studied. We propose an advance payment mechanism: in the coal company's initial production period, the electricity company provides advance payment to the coal company, and the coal company pays interest to the electricity company as the risk compensation. The optimal operation strategies for the coal company and the electricity company under the advance payment mechanism are derived and compared with those under the bank loan financing case. We find that,the expected profit functions of the coal company and the electricity company under the advance payment mechanism are the same with those under the case that the coal company has enough capital;under the advance payment mechanism, the profits of the coal company and the electricity company are higher than those under the bank financing case. We also discuss the compensation interest rate of the advance payment and the ordering and production quantities under the advance payment mechanism.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41105013)the National Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,China (Grant No. BK2011122)+1 种基金the Open Issue Foundation of Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,China (Grant No. KLME1109)the City Meteorological Scientific Research Fund,China (Grant No. IUMKY&UMRF201111)
文摘The estimation of lower atmospheric refractivity from radar sea clutter（RFC） is a complicated nonlinear optimization problem.This paper deals with the RFC problem in a Bayesian framework.It uses the unbiased Markov Chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） sampling technique,which can provide accurate posterior probability distributions of the estimated refractivity parameters by using an electromagnetic split-step fast Fourier transform terrain parabolic equation propagation model within a Bayesian inversion framework.In contrast to the global optimization algorithm,the Bayesian-MCMC can obtain not only the approximate solutions,but also the probability distributions of the solutions,that is,uncertainty analyses of solutions.The Bayesian-MCMC algorithm is implemented on the simulation radar sea-clutter data and the real radar seaclutter data.Reference data are assumed to be simulation data and refractivity profiles are obtained using a helicopter.The inversion algorithm is assessed（i） by comparing the estimated refractivity profiles from the assumed simulation and the helicopter sounding data;（ii） the one-dimensional（1D） and two-dimensional（2D） posterior probability distribution of solutions.
文摘Reserve estimation is a key to find the correct NPV in a mining project. The most important factor in reserve estimation is the metal price. Metal price fluctuations in recent years were exaggerated, and imposed a high degree of uncertainty to the reserve estimation, and in consequence to the whole mine planning procedure. Real option approach is an efficient method of decision making in the uncertain conditions. This approach has been used for evaluation of defined natural resources projects until now. This study considering the metal price uncertainty used real option approach to prepare a methodology for reserve estimation in open pit mines. This study was done on a copper cylindrical deposit, but the achieved methodology can be adjusted for all kinds of deposits. This methodology was comprehensively described through the examples in such a manner that can be used by the mine planners.
基金provided by the Talent Training Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.J0730534)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40902093)+1 种基金the Morning Light Plan of the Shanghai Educational Development Foundation (No.2007CG34)the Open Foundation of the Shanghai Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Ecological Restoration (No.200803)
文摘Uncertainty in 3D geological structure models has become a bottleneck that restricts the development and application of 3D geological modeling.In order to solve this problem during periods of accuracy assessment,error detection and dynamic correction in 3D geological structure models,we have reviewed the current situation and development trends in 3D geological modeling.The main context of uncertainty in 3D geological structure models is discussed.Major research issues and a general framework system of uncertainty in 3D geological structure models are proposed.We have described in detail the integration of development practices of 3D geological modeling systems,as well as the implementation process for uncertainty evaluation in 3D geological structure models.This study has laid the basis to build theoretical and methodological systems for accuracy assessment and error correction in 3D geological models and can assist in improving 3D modeling techniques under complex geological conditions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51207173 and 51277192)
文摘This paper presents a modified sliding mode control for fractional-order chaotic economical systems with parameter uncertainty and external disturbance. By constructing the suitable sliding mode surface with fractional-order integral, the effective sliding mode controller is designed to realize the asymptotical stability of fractional-order chaotic economical systems. Comparing with the existing results, the main results in this paper are more practical and rigorous. Simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed sliding mode control method.
文摘Deposition of fluvial sandbodies is controlled mainly by characteristics of the system, such as the rate of avulsion and aggradation of the fluvial channels and their geometry. The impact and the interaction of these parameters have not received adequate attention. In this paper, the impact of geological uncertainty resulting from the interpretation of the fluvial geometry, maximum depth of channels, and their avulsion rates on primary production is studied for fluvial reservoirs. Several meandering reservoirs were generated using a process-mimicking package by varying several con- trolling factors. Simulation results indicate that geometrical parameters of the fluvial channels impact cumulative pro- duction during primary production more significantly than their avulsion rate. The most significant factor appears to be the maximum depth of fluvial channels. The overall net-to-gross ratio is closely correlated with the cumulative oil production of the field, but cumulative production values for individual wells do not appear to be correlated with the local net-to-gross ratio calculated in the vicinity of each well. Connectedness of the sandbodies to each well, defined based on the minimum time-of-flight from each block to the well, appears to be a more reliable indicator of well-scale production.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 52274057,52074340 and 51874335the Major Scientific and Technological Projects of CNPC under Grant ZD2019-183-008the Science and Technology Support Plan for Youth Innovation of University in Shandong Province under Grant 2019KJH002,111 Project under Grant B08028.
文摘Production optimization has gained increasing attention from the smart oilfield community because it can increase economic benefits and oil recovery substantially.While existing methods could produce high-optimality results,they cannot be applied to real-time optimization for large-scale reservoirs due to high computational demands.In addition,most methods generally assume that the reservoir model is deterministic and ignore the uncertainty of the subsurface environment,making the obtained scheme unreliable for practical deployment.In this work,an efficient and robust method,namely evolutionaryassisted reinforcement learning(EARL),is proposed to achieve real-time production optimization under uncertainty.Specifically,the production optimization problem is modeled as a Markov decision process in which a reinforcement learning agent interacts with the reservoir simulator to train a control policy that maximizes the specified goals.To deal with the problems of brittle convergence properties and lack of efficient exploration strategies of reinforcement learning approaches,a population-based evolutionary algorithm is introduced to assist the training of agents,which provides diverse exploration experiences and promotes stability and robustness due to its inherent redundancy.Compared with prior methods that only optimize a solution for a particular scenario,the proposed approach trains a policy that can adapt to uncertain environments and make real-time decisions to cope with unknown changes.The trained policy,represented by a deep convolutional neural network,can adaptively adjust the well controls based on different reservoir states.Simulation results on two reservoir models show that the proposed approach not only outperforms the RL and EA methods in terms of optimization efficiency but also has strong robustness and real-time decision capacity.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(Project no.BK20180474)the Natural Science Foundation of China(Project no.51805263,no.51705253,no.11572158)the National Defense Basic Scientific Research program of China(Grant no.JCKY2017208A001)。
文摘A moving target tracking control problem for marching tank based on adaptive robust feedback control scheme is addressed.A series of preparations is needed for tank gun before shooting a target,the purpose of this paper is to design a control system to fulfill two requirements in this process:the turretbarrel system of tank needs to be adjusted from off-target position to command position and point to the moving target stably when there are strong uncertainties(modeling error,uncertain disturbance with unknown boundaries and road excitation) in the system.Considering the characteristic of coupled interaction,the first thing we do in this paper is to build a coupled analysis model of turret-barrel system with uncertainty term in state-space form.Second,an adaptive robust feedback control scheme is proposed by adding adaptive law to overcome the uncertainty.Third,multi-body dynamics software is used to establish the mechanical mechanism of the tank,and DC-motor module is established in SIMULINK environment,thus the target information and tracking error of the control system is collected and transferred,the gear-ball screw is derived directly by the output torque of the DC-motor module.Finally,the control system and the 3D model are combined together by means of Recur Dyn/SIMULINK co-simulation,the turret-barrel system of tank can approximately track the moving target in a certain range.With the adaptive robust feedback control,the target action is completely followed when the target location is constantly changing.
基金supported by Startup Foundation for Phd Research of Henan Normal University(No.5101119170155).
文摘An uncertainty principle(UP),which offers information about a signal and its Fourier transform in the time-frequency plane,is particularly powerful in mathematics,physics and signal processing community.Under the polar coordinate form of quaternion-valued signals,the UP of the two-sided quaternion linear canonical transform(QLCT)is strengthened in terms of covariance.The condition giving rise to the equal relation of the derived result is obtained as well.The novel UP with covariance can be regarded as one in a tighter form related to the QLCT.It states that the product of spreads of a quaternion-valued signal in the spatial domain and the QLCT domain is bounded by a larger lower bound.
文摘In open-pit mines,pit slope as one of the important parameters affects the mine economy and total minable reserve,and it is also affected by different uncertainties which arising from many sources.One of the most critical sources of uncertainty effects on the pit slope design is rock mass geomechanical properties.By comparing the probability of failure resulted from deterministic procedure and probabilistic one,this paper investigated the effects of aforesaid uncertainties on open-pit slope stability in metal mines.In this way,to reduce the effect of variance,it implemented Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS)technique.Furthermore,a hypothesis test was exerted to compare the effects on two cases in Middle East.Subsequently,the investigation approved high influence of geomechanical uncertainties on overall pit steepness and stability in both iron and copper mines,though on the first case the effects were just over.
