Real-time resource allocation is crucial for phased array radar to undertake multi-task with limited resources,such as the situation of multi-target tracking,in which targets need to be prioritized so that resources c...Real-time resource allocation is crucial for phased array radar to undertake multi-task with limited resources,such as the situation of multi-target tracking,in which targets need to be prioritized so that resources can be allocated accordingly and effectively.A three-way decision-based model is proposed for adaptive scheduling of phased radar dwell time.Using the model,the threat posed by a target is measured by an evaluation function,and therefore,a target is assigned to one of the three possible decision regions,i.e.,positive region,negative region,and boundary region.A different region has a various priority in terms of resource demand,and as such,a different radar resource allocation decision is applied to each region to satisfy different tracking accuracies of multi-target.In addition,the dwell time scheduling model can be further optimized by implementing a strategy for determining a proper threshold of three-way decision making to optimize the thresholds adaptively in real-time.The advantages and the performance of the proposed model have been verified by experimental simulations with comparison to the traditional twoway decision model and the three-way decision model without threshold optimization.The experiential results demonstrate that the performance of the proposed model has a certain advantage in detecting high threat targets.展开更多
Unbalanced agricultural production decision becomes the great block that influences the effective distribution of social resources, national grain security, social stability and economic development. This paper took t...Unbalanced agricultural production decision becomes the great block that influences the effective distribution of social resources, national grain security, social stability and economic development. This paper took the game theory as an analyzed tool to describe the interactional processes among the peasants, and set up the game theory model of independent decision and joint decision by peasants. It was shown that the government＇s positive guide and the market environment macroscopically controlled by the government could effectively increased the peasants＇ income展开更多
In this paper a model of military command process under the combat situation is presented. The model is based on the Lanchester Equations and Fuzzy Decision Theory. The decision of a military commander is usually a pr...In this paper a model of military command process under the combat situation is presented. The model is based on the Lanchester Equations and Fuzzy Decision Theory. The decision of a military commander is usually a process from precise to fuzzy and then from fuzzy to precise,and the model fitted this process well. The model was used in a Warfare Simulation System whose object is to evaluate the effectiveness of the military C3I systems.展开更多
A kind of multiple attribute group decision making （MAGDM） problem is discussed from the perspective of statistic decision-making. Firstly, on the basis of the stability theory, a new idea is proposed to solve this ...A kind of multiple attribute group decision making （MAGDM） problem is discussed from the perspective of statistic decision-making. Firstly, on the basis of the stability theory, a new idea is proposed to solve this kind of problem. Secondly, a con- crete method corresponding to this kind of problem is proposed. The main tool of our research is the technique o~ the jackknife method. The main advantage of the new method is that it can identify and determine the reliability degree of the existed decision making information. Finally, a traffic engineering example is given to show the effectiveness of the new method.展开更多
The rapid development of multimodal transportation system prompts travellers to choose multiple transportation modes, such as private vehicles or taxi, transit(subways or buses), or park-and-ride combinations for urba...The rapid development of multimodal transportation system prompts travellers to choose multiple transportation modes, such as private vehicles or taxi, transit(subways or buses), or park-and-ride combinations for urban trips. Traffic corridor is a major scenario that supports travellers to commute from suburban residential areas to central working areas. Studying their modal choice behaviour is receiving more and more interests. On one hand, it will guide the travellers to rationally choose their most economic and beneficial mode for urban trips. On the other hand, it will help traffic operators to make more appropriate policies to enhance the share of public transit in order to alleviate the traffic congestion and produce more economic and social benefits. To analyze the travel modal choice, a generalized cost model for three typical modes is first established to evaluate each different travel alternative. Then, random utility theory(RUT) and decision field theory(DFT) are introduced to describe the decision-making process how travellers make their mode choices. Further, some important factors that may influence the modal choice behaviour are discussed as well. To test the feasibility of the proposed model, a field test in Beijing was conducted to collect the real-time data and estimate the model parameters. The improvements in the test results and analysis show new advances in the development of travel mode choice on multimodal transportation networks.展开更多
To overcome the limitations of the traditional surrogate worth trade-off （SWT） method and solve the multiple criteria decision making problem more efficiently and interactively, a new method labeled dual worth trade...To overcome the limitations of the traditional surrogate worth trade-off （SWT） method and solve the multiple criteria decision making problem more efficiently and interactively, a new method labeled dual worth tradeoff （DWT） method is proposed. The DWT method dynamically uses the duality theory related to the multiple criteria decision making problem and analytic hierarchy process technique to obtain the decision maker＇s solution preference information and finally find the satisfactory compromise solution of the decision maker. Through the interactive process between the analyst and the decision maker, trade-off information is solicited and treated properly, the representative subset of efficient solutions and the satisfactory solution to the problem are found. The implementation procedure for the DWT method is presented. The effectiveness and applicability of the DWT method are shown by a practical case study in the field of production scheduling.展开更多
The design of collaboration decision of C2 system is one of the puzzles which dicision science studies in complex system. To solve the contravention between the theory of collaboration decision design and development ...The design of collaboration decision of C2 system is one of the puzzles which dicision science studies in complex system. To solve the contravention between the theory of collaboration decision design and development requirement in distributed C2 system,three-stage design approach is proposed to research coherence and optimization by which decision-maker carries out decision regulations. First,getting information and decision process are described; decision indexes and regulation models of collaboration are established. And then,a test circumstance is designed and established for measuring various decision-maker’s capabilities of carrying out decision regulation by simulation and getting their load capability parameters. Finally,the obtained parameters from the experiment are disposed and substituted into the original models for proving the coherence of decision regulations. As a result,it is feasible for three-stage approach to design collaboration decision,and decision regulations can satisfy various decision-maker requirements.展开更多
Traditionally, the decision tree method is defined and used for finding the optimal solution of a Bayesian decision problem. And it is difficult to use the decision tree method to find the sub-optimal solution, not to...Traditionally, the decision tree method is defined and used for finding the optimal solution of a Bayesian decision problem. And it is difficult to use the decision tree method to find the sub-optimal solution, not to mention to rank alternatives. This paper discusses how to use the decision tree method for the alternative selecting and ranking. A practical case study is given to illustrate the applicability.展开更多
In this paper, decision making in complex environment is considered and an approach integrating quantitative decision model with qualitative judgment is proposed. The concept of belief degree for quantitative decision...In this paper, decision making in complex environment is considered and an approach integrating quantitative decision model with qualitative judgment is proposed. The concept of belief degree for quantitative decision model in a complex environment is presented. The integration in formulation and reasoning of quantitative model with qualitative judgment is studied. The combination of various belief degree generated by quantitative model and qualitative judgment is discussed. A decision rule of tradeoff between optimality and belief degree of optimality is proposed.展开更多
We present a method for using type theory to solve decision making problem. Our method is based on the view that decision making is a special kind of theorem proving activity. An isomorphism between problems and types...We present a method for using type theory to solve decision making problem. Our method is based on the view that decision making is a special kind of theorem proving activity. An isomorphism between problems and types, and solutions and programs has been established to support this view which is much similar to the Curry-Howard isomorphism between propositions and types, and proofs and programs. To support our method, a proof development system called PowerEpsilon has been developed, and the synthesis of a decision procedure for validity of first-order propositional logic is discussed to show the power of the system.展开更多
As to oppositional, multi-objective and hierarchical characteristic of air formation to ground attackdefends campaign, and using dynamic space state model of military campaign, this article establishes a principal and...As to oppositional, multi-objective and hierarchical characteristic of air formation to ground attackdefends campaign, and using dynamic space state model of military campaign, this article establishes a principal and subordinate hierarchical interactive decision-making way, the Nash-Stackelberg-Nash model, to solve the problems in military operation, and find out the associated best strategy in hierarchical dynamic decision-making. The simulating result indicate that when applying the model to air formation to ground attack-defends decision-making system, it can solve the problems of two hierarchies, dynamic oppositional decision-making favorably, and reach preferable effect in battle. It proves that the model can provide an effective way for analyzing a battle,展开更多
基金the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(2017ZC53021)the Open Project Fund of CETC Key Laboratory of Data Link Technology(CLDL-20182101).
文摘Real-time resource allocation is crucial for phased array radar to undertake multi-task with limited resources,such as the situation of multi-target tracking,in which targets need to be prioritized so that resources can be allocated accordingly and effectively.A three-way decision-based model is proposed for adaptive scheduling of phased radar dwell time.Using the model,the threat posed by a target is measured by an evaluation function,and therefore,a target is assigned to one of the three possible decision regions,i.e.,positive region,negative region,and boundary region.A different region has a various priority in terms of resource demand,and as such,a different radar resource allocation decision is applied to each region to satisfy different tracking accuracies of multi-target.In addition,the dwell time scheduling model can be further optimized by implementing a strategy for determining a proper threshold of three-way decision making to optimize the thresholds adaptively in real-time.The advantages and the performance of the proposed model have been verified by experimental simulations with comparison to the traditional twoway decision model and the three-way decision model without threshold optimization.The experiential results demonstrate that the performance of the proposed model has a certain advantage in detecting high threat targets.
文摘Unbalanced agricultural production decision becomes the great block that influences the effective distribution of social resources, national grain security, social stability and economic development. This paper took the game theory as an analyzed tool to describe the interactional processes among the peasants, and set up the game theory model of independent decision and joint decision by peasants. It was shown that the government＇s positive guide and the market environment macroscopically controlled by the government could effectively increased the peasants＇ income
文摘In this paper a model of military command process under the combat situation is presented. The model is based on the Lanchester Equations and Fuzzy Decision Theory. The decision of a military commander is usually a process from precise to fuzzy and then from fuzzy to precise,and the model fitted this process well. The model was used in a Warfare Simulation System whose object is to evaluate the effectiveness of the military C3I systems.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(2012CB725402)the National High-Tech R&D Program of China(863 Program)(SS2014AA110303)the Science Foundation for Post-doctoral Scientists of Jiangsu Province(1301011A)
文摘A kind of multiple attribute group decision making （MAGDM） problem is discussed from the perspective of statistic decision-making. Firstly, on the basis of the stability theory, a new idea is proposed to solve this kind of problem. Secondly, a con- crete method corresponding to this kind of problem is proposed. The main tool of our research is the technique o~ the jackknife method. The main advantage of the new method is that it can identify and determine the reliability degree of the existed decision making information. Finally, a traffic engineering example is given to show the effectiveness of the new method.
基金Project(2012CB725405)supported in part by National Basic Research Program of ChinaProject(2014BAG03B01)supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program,China+1 种基金Project(71301083)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(20131089307)supported by the Project Supported by Tsinghua University,China
文摘The rapid development of multimodal transportation system prompts travellers to choose multiple transportation modes, such as private vehicles or taxi, transit(subways or buses), or park-and-ride combinations for urban trips. Traffic corridor is a major scenario that supports travellers to commute from suburban residential areas to central working areas. Studying their modal choice behaviour is receiving more and more interests. On one hand, it will guide the travellers to rationally choose their most economic and beneficial mode for urban trips. On the other hand, it will help traffic operators to make more appropriate policies to enhance the share of public transit in order to alleviate the traffic congestion and produce more economic and social benefits. To analyze the travel modal choice, a generalized cost model for three typical modes is first established to evaluate each different travel alternative. Then, random utility theory(RUT) and decision field theory(DFT) are introduced to describe the decision-making process how travellers make their mode choices. Further, some important factors that may influence the modal choice behaviour are discussed as well. To test the feasibility of the proposed model, a field test in Beijing was conducted to collect the real-time data and estimate the model parameters. The improvements in the test results and analysis show new advances in the development of travel mode choice on multimodal transportation networks.
基金This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(79870030)
文摘To overcome the limitations of the traditional surrogate worth trade-off （SWT） method and solve the multiple criteria decision making problem more efficiently and interactively, a new method labeled dual worth tradeoff （DWT） method is proposed. The DWT method dynamically uses the duality theory related to the multiple criteria decision making problem and analytic hierarchy process technique to obtain the decision maker＇s solution preference information and finally find the satisfactory compromise solution of the decision maker. Through the interactive process between the analyst and the decision maker, trade-off information is solicited and treated properly, the representative subset of efficient solutions and the satisfactory solution to the problem are found. The implementation procedure for the DWT method is presented. The effectiveness and applicability of the DWT method are shown by a practical case study in the field of production scheduling.
基金the National Nature Science Foundation of China (70671105)
文摘The design of collaboration decision of C2 system is one of the puzzles which dicision science studies in complex system. To solve the contravention between the theory of collaboration decision design and development requirement in distributed C2 system,three-stage design approach is proposed to research coherence and optimization by which decision-maker carries out decision regulations. First,getting information and decision process are described; decision indexes and regulation models of collaboration are established. And then,a test circumstance is designed and established for measuring various decision-maker’s capabilities of carrying out decision regulation by simulation and getting their load capability parameters. Finally,the obtained parameters from the experiment are disposed and substituted into the original models for proving the coherence of decision regulations. As a result,it is feasible for three-stage approach to design collaboration decision,and decision regulations can satisfy various decision-maker requirements.
基金This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 79870030
文摘Traditionally, the decision tree method is defined and used for finding the optimal solution of a Bayesian decision problem. And it is difficult to use the decision tree method to find the sub-optimal solution, not to mention to rank alternatives. This paper discusses how to use the decision tree method for the alternative selecting and ranking. A practical case study is given to illustrate the applicability.
文摘In this paper, decision making in complex environment is considered and an approach integrating quantitative decision model with qualitative judgment is proposed. The concept of belief degree for quantitative decision model in a complex environment is presented. The integration in formulation and reasoning of quantitative model with qualitative judgment is studied. The combination of various belief degree generated by quantitative model and qualitative judgment is discussed. A decision rule of tradeoff between optimality and belief degree of optimality is proposed.
文摘We present a method for using type theory to solve decision making problem. Our method is based on the view that decision making is a special kind of theorem proving activity. An isomorphism between problems and types, and solutions and programs has been established to support this view which is much similar to the Curry-Howard isomorphism between propositions and types, and proofs and programs. To support our method, a proof development system called PowerEpsilon has been developed, and the synthesis of a decision procedure for validity of first-order propositional logic is discussed to show the power of the system.
基金College Doctor Foundation (20060699026)Aviation Basic Scientific Foundation (05D53021).
文摘As to oppositional, multi-objective and hierarchical characteristic of air formation to ground attackdefends campaign, and using dynamic space state model of military campaign, this article establishes a principal and subordinate hierarchical interactive decision-making way, the Nash-Stackelberg-Nash model, to solve the problems in military operation, and find out the associated best strategy in hierarchical dynamic decision-making. The simulating result indicate that when applying the model to air formation to ground attack-defends decision-making system, it can solve the problems of two hierarchies, dynamic oppositional decision-making favorably, and reach preferable effect in battle. It proves that the model can provide an effective way for analyzing a battle,
