To cope with multi-directional transmission coupling,spreading, amplification, and chain reaction of risks during multiproject parallel construction of warships, a risk transmission evaluation method is proposed, whic...To cope with multi-directional transmission coupling,spreading, amplification, and chain reaction of risks during multiproject parallel construction of warships, a risk transmission evaluation method is proposed, which integrates an intuitionistic cloud model with a fuzzy cognitive map. By virtue of expectancy Ex, entropy En, and hyper entropy He, the risk fuzziness and randomness of the knowledge of experts are organically combined to develop a method for converting bi-linguistic variable decision-making information into the quantitative information of the intuitionistic normal cloud(INC) model. Subsequently, the threshold function and weighted summation operation in the traditional fuzzy cognitive map is converted into the INC ordered weighted averaging operator to create the risk transmission model based on the intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map(IFCM) and the algorithm for solving it. Subsequently, the risk influence sequencing method based on INC and the risk rating method based on nearness are proposed on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation in order to realize the mutual conversion of the qualitative and quantitative information in the risk evaluation results.Example analysis is presented to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the methods.展开更多
为了识别地铁站点与常规公交线路衔接换乘存在的换乘效率低等问题,提高城市公共交通系统运行效率和服务水平,促进城市公共交通可持续发展以及响应公众需求和监督,需要对地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘进行全面系统评价.基于便利性、可靠性...为了识别地铁站点与常规公交线路衔接换乘存在的换乘效率低等问题,提高城市公共交通系统运行效率和服务水平,促进城市公共交通可持续发展以及响应公众需求和监督,需要对地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘进行全面系统评价.基于便利性、可靠性、可达性、通畅性及舒适度等5个维度15个指标,建立地铁站点与常规公交的衔接换乘评价指标体系;选取CRITIC(criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation)方法对指标进行客观赋权,采用云模型生成基于基本算法的评价标准云和结果云,评价结果通过云的数字特征和云图直观展现,进而对识别出的问题和不足采取相应改进措施.以中国青岛市主城区45个地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘为案例进行评价,结果表明,衔接换乘综合评价等级为“中等”,准则层(便利性、可靠性、可达性、通畅性和舒适度)的衔接换乘评价等级均为“中等”以上,基本符合青岛市主城区地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘的特点,验证了评价模型的有效性和合理性.评价结果有助于优化公共交通资源配置,提高城市交通系统的整体运行效率,缓解城市交通拥堵.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71501183).
文摘To cope with multi-directional transmission coupling,spreading, amplification, and chain reaction of risks during multiproject parallel construction of warships, a risk transmission evaluation method is proposed, which integrates an intuitionistic cloud model with a fuzzy cognitive map. By virtue of expectancy Ex, entropy En, and hyper entropy He, the risk fuzziness and randomness of the knowledge of experts are organically combined to develop a method for converting bi-linguistic variable decision-making information into the quantitative information of the intuitionistic normal cloud(INC) model. Subsequently, the threshold function and weighted summation operation in the traditional fuzzy cognitive map is converted into the INC ordered weighted averaging operator to create the risk transmission model based on the intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map(IFCM) and the algorithm for solving it. Subsequently, the risk influence sequencing method based on INC and the risk rating method based on nearness are proposed on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation in order to realize the mutual conversion of the qualitative and quantitative information in the risk evaluation results.Example analysis is presented to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the methods.
文摘为了识别地铁站点与常规公交线路衔接换乘存在的换乘效率低等问题,提高城市公共交通系统运行效率和服务水平,促进城市公共交通可持续发展以及响应公众需求和监督,需要对地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘进行全面系统评价.基于便利性、可靠性、可达性、通畅性及舒适度等5个维度15个指标,建立地铁站点与常规公交的衔接换乘评价指标体系;选取CRITIC(criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation)方法对指标进行客观赋权,采用云模型生成基于基本算法的评价标准云和结果云,评价结果通过云的数字特征和云图直观展现,进而对识别出的问题和不足采取相应改进措施.以中国青岛市主城区45个地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘为案例进行评价,结果表明,衔接换乘综合评价等级为“中等”,准则层(便利性、可靠性、可达性、通畅性和舒适度)的衔接换乘评价等级均为“中等”以上,基本符合青岛市主城区地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘的特点,验证了评价模型的有效性和合理性.评价结果有助于优化公共交通资源配置,提高城市交通系统的整体运行效率,缓解城市交通拥堵.
