For the target threat evaluation of warships formation air defense, the sample data are frequently insufficient and even incomplete. The existing evaluation methods rely too much on expertise and are difficult to carr...For the target threat evaluation of warships formation air defense, the sample data are frequently insufficient and even incomplete. The existing evaluation methods rely too much on expertise and are difficult to carry out for the dynamic evaluation on time series. In order to solve these problems, a threat evaluation method based on the AR(p)(auto regressive(AR))-dynamic improved technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(DITOPSIS) method is proposed. The AR(p) model is adopted to predict the missing data on the time series. Then, the entropy weight method is applied to solve each index weight at the objective point. Kullback-Leibler divergence(KLD) is used to improve the traditional TOPSIS, and to carry out the target threat evaluation. The Poisson distribution is used to assign the weight value.Simulation results show that the improved AR(p)-DITOPSIS threat evaluation method can synthetically take into account the target threat degree in time series and is more suitable for the threat evaluation under the condition of missing the target data than the traditional TOPSIS method.展开更多
以北京市四惠枢纽为研究对象,探索以数据驱动为导向满足乘客需求的枢纽动态导向标识方案评估及优化设计方法。首先,搭建KANO乘客需求模型,通过桌面实验,形成动态导向标识在内容、样式及空间位置上的优化设计方案,与四惠枢纽现有方案形...以北京市四惠枢纽为研究对象,探索以数据驱动为导向满足乘客需求的枢纽动态导向标识方案评估及优化设计方法。首先,搭建KANO乘客需求模型,通过桌面实验,形成动态导向标识在内容、样式及空间位置上的优化设计方案,与四惠枢纽现有方案形成对比。其次,基于寻路理论通过建筑信息建模(building information modeling,BIM)+虚拟现实(virtual reality,VR)仿真技术,实现人与枢纽的信息交互,提取新旧导向标识方案作用下乘客寻路过程的特征参数。最后,通过对寻路实验中主客观指标分析可知,被试在新版动态导向标识方案中寻路时间、犯错误点数及迷茫点数显著降低,且新版动态导向标识方案在内容、样式及空间位置上满意度均优于旧版。结果表明:研究搭建BIM+VR的虚拟仿真平台,形成以数据驱动为导向的枢纽动态导向标识方案综合评估及优化设计方法,为枢纽动态导向标识方案设计及合理应用提供技术与理论支撑。展开更多
分别从“点对点”雨量检验和降水空间结构特征检验两方面对多个数值模式东亚夏季中短期逐日降水集合预报进行评估,结果表明不同模式对降水的不同方面存在不一样的预报能力。借助基于对象的诊断评估方法(method for object-based diagnos...分别从“点对点”雨量检验和降水空间结构特征检验两方面对多个数值模式东亚夏季中短期逐日降水集合预报进行评估,结果表明不同模式对降水的不同方面存在不一样的预报能力。借助基于对象的诊断评估方法(method for object-based diagnostic evaluation,简称MODE)提出了基于降水对象的超级集合(Object-based Superensemble,简称OBJSUP)模型,采用观测场和预报场中降水对象空间结构的相似度来分配各个成员模式的权重,有别于利用传统“点对点”误差分析来计算权重的超级集合(Gridpoint-based Superensemble,简称GPSUP)。相比于最优单模式,两种多模式集成预报均有效地提高了中短期降水预报技巧,且OBJSUP模型整体优于GPSUP模型,主要原因在于OBJSUP模型可以较好地改进降水对象的质心位置预报。为进一步检验多模式集成模型对强降水空间结构特征的预报能力,针对2018年夏季广东一次极端强降水事件,多模式集成预报与高分辨率区域模式动力降尺度预报对比表明,多模式集成对强降水的预报不足,但对广东省逐日大雨量级降水和过程累积降水量空间分布预报较好。高分辨率区域模式对此个例中粤东地区发生的强降水具有一定的预报能力,但对广东省其他地区降水量预报偏弱。展开更多
基金supported by the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China(2013T60923)
文摘For the target threat evaluation of warships formation air defense, the sample data are frequently insufficient and even incomplete. The existing evaluation methods rely too much on expertise and are difficult to carry out for the dynamic evaluation on time series. In order to solve these problems, a threat evaluation method based on the AR(p)(auto regressive(AR))-dynamic improved technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(DITOPSIS) method is proposed. The AR(p) model is adopted to predict the missing data on the time series. Then, the entropy weight method is applied to solve each index weight at the objective point. Kullback-Leibler divergence(KLD) is used to improve the traditional TOPSIS, and to carry out the target threat evaluation. The Poisson distribution is used to assign the weight value.Simulation results show that the improved AR(p)-DITOPSIS threat evaluation method can synthetically take into account the target threat degree in time series and is more suitable for the threat evaluation under the condition of missing the target data than the traditional TOPSIS method.
文摘以北京市四惠枢纽为研究对象,探索以数据驱动为导向满足乘客需求的枢纽动态导向标识方案评估及优化设计方法。首先,搭建KANO乘客需求模型,通过桌面实验,形成动态导向标识在内容、样式及空间位置上的优化设计方案,与四惠枢纽现有方案形成对比。其次,基于寻路理论通过建筑信息建模(building information modeling,BIM)+虚拟现实(virtual reality,VR)仿真技术,实现人与枢纽的信息交互,提取新旧导向标识方案作用下乘客寻路过程的特征参数。最后,通过对寻路实验中主客观指标分析可知,被试在新版动态导向标识方案中寻路时间、犯错误点数及迷茫点数显著降低,且新版动态导向标识方案在内容、样式及空间位置上满意度均优于旧版。结果表明:研究搭建BIM+VR的虚拟仿真平台,形成以数据驱动为导向的枢纽动态导向标识方案综合评估及优化设计方法,为枢纽动态导向标识方案设计及合理应用提供技术与理论支撑。
