In this paper,large deviations principle(LDP)and moderate deviations principle(MDP)of record numbers in random walks are studied under certain conditions.The results show that the rate functions of LDP and MDP are dif...In this paper,large deviations principle(LDP)and moderate deviations principle(MDP)of record numbers in random walks are studied under certain conditions.The results show that the rate functions of LDP and MDP are different from those of weak record numbers,which are interesting complements of the conclusions by Li and Yao[1].展开更多
The complete convergence for weighted sums of sequences of independent,identically distributed random variables under sublinear expectation space is studied.By moment inequality and truncation methods,we establish the...The complete convergence for weighted sums of sequences of independent,identically distributed random variables under sublinear expectation space is studied.By moment inequality and truncation methods,we establish the equivalent conditions of complete convergence for weighted sums of sequences of independent,identically distributed random variables under sublinear expectation space.The results complement the corresponding results in probability space to those for sequences of independent,identically distributed random variables under sublinear expectation space.展开更多
In this paper,by utilizing the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality and Rosenthal-type inequality of negatively superadditive dependent(NSD)random arrays and truncated method,we investigate the complete f-moment convergen...In this paper,by utilizing the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality and Rosenthal-type inequality of negatively superadditive dependent(NSD)random arrays and truncated method,we investigate the complete f-moment convergence of NSD random variables.We establish and improve a general result on the complete f-moment convergence for Sung’s type randomly weighted sums of NSD random variables under some general assumptions.As an application,we show the complete consistency for the randomly weighted estimator in a nonparametric regression model based on NSD errors.展开更多
Missiles provide long-range precision strike capabilities and have become a cornerstone of modern warfare.The contrail clouds formed by missile during their active flight phase present significant chal-lenges to high-...Missiles provide long-range precision strike capabilities and have become a cornerstone of modern warfare.The contrail clouds formed by missile during their active flight phase present significant chal-lenges to high-altitude environmental observation and target detection and tracking.Existing studies primarily focus on specific airspace regions,leaving critical gaps in understanding the effects of long dispersion times,wide altitude ranges,and variable atmospheric conditions on missile contrail clouds.To address these gaps,this article develops a numerical method based on the Lagrangian random walk model,which incorporates various velocity variation terms,including particle velocity caused by the difference of wind field,by the thermal motion of local gas molecules and by random collisions between contrail cloud particles to capture the influence of environmental wind fields,atmospheric conditions,and particle concentrations on the motion of contrail cloud particles.A general coordinate system aligned with the missile's flight trajectory is employed to represent particle distribution characteristics.The proposed method is in good agreement with the conducted experiments as well as with the available numerical simulations.The results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively simulates the dispersion state of contrail clouds,accurately reflecting the impact of large-scale wind field variations and altitude changes with high computational efficiency.Additionally,simulation results indicate that the increased distance between gas molecules in rarefied environments facilitates enhanced particle dispersion,while larger particles exhibit a faster dispersion rate due to their greater mass.展开更多
An integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness was developed in this work to systematically assess the risk of groundwater contamination in a little town, Central China. In this system, randomness of t...An integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness was developed in this work to systematically assess the risk of groundwater contamination in a little town, Central China. In this system, randomness of the parameters and the fuzziness of the risk were considered simultaneously, and the exceeding standard probability of contamination and human health risk due to the contamination were integrated. The contamination risk was defined as a combination of "vulnerability" and "hazard". To calculate the value of "vulnerability", pollutant concentration was simulated by MODFLOW with random input variables and a new modified health risk assessment(MRA) model was established to analyze the level of "hazard". The limit concentration based on environmental-guideline and health risk due to manganese were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The "vulnerability" and "hazard" were divided into five categories of "high", "medium-high", "medium", "low-medium" and "low", respectively. Then, "vulnerability" and "hazard" were firstly combined by integrated evaluation. Compared with the other two scenarios under deterministic methods, the risk obtained in the proposed system is higher. This research illustrated that ignoring of uncertainties in evaluation process might underestimate the risk level.展开更多
In this paper,we investigate the complete convergence and complete moment conver-gence for weighted sums of arrays of rowwise asymptotically negatively associated(ANA)random variables,without assuming identical distri...In this paper,we investigate the complete convergence and complete moment conver-gence for weighted sums of arrays of rowwise asymptotically negatively associated(ANA)random variables,without assuming identical distribution.The obtained results not only extend those of An and Yuan[1]and Shen et al.[2]to the case of ANA random variables,but also partially improve them.展开更多
The article introduces a finite element procedure using the bilinear quadrilateral element or four-node rectangular element(namely Q4 element) based on a refined first-order shear deformation theory(rFSDT) and Monte C...The article introduces a finite element procedure using the bilinear quadrilateral element or four-node rectangular element(namely Q4 element) based on a refined first-order shear deformation theory(rFSDT) and Monte Carlo simulation(MCS), so-called refined stochastic finite element method to investigate the random vibration of functionally graded material(FGM) plates subjected to the moving load.The advantage of the proposed method is to use r-FSDT to improve the accuracy of classical FSDT, satisfy the stress-free condition at the plate boundaries, and combine with MCS to analyze the vibration of the FGM plate when the parameter inputs are random quantities following a normal distribution. The obtained results show that the distribution characteristics of the vibration response of the FGM plate depend on the standard deviation of the input parameters and the velocity of the moving load.Furthermore, the numerical results in this study are expected to contribute to improving the understanding of FGM plates subjected to moving loads with uncertain input parameters.展开更多
Mendelian randomization(MR)is widely used in causal mediation analysis to control unmeasured confounding effects,which is valid under some strong assumptions.It is thus of great interest to assess the impact of violat...Mendelian randomization(MR)is widely used in causal mediation analysis to control unmeasured confounding effects,which is valid under some strong assumptions.It is thus of great interest to assess the impact of violations of these MR assumptions through sensitivity analysis.Sensitivity analyses have been conducted for simple MR-based causal average effect analyses,but they are not available for MR-based mediation analysis studies,and we aim to fill this gap in this paper.We propose to use two sensitivity parameters to quantify the effect due to the deviation of the IV assumptions.With these two sensitivity parameters,we derive consistent indirect causal effect estimators and establish their asymptotic propersties.Our theoretical results can be used in MR-based mediation analysis to study the impact of violations of MR as-sumptions.The finite sample performance of the proposed method is illustrated through simulation studies,sensitivity ana-lysis,and application to a real genome-wide association study.展开更多
Objective:The causal relationship between eczema and autoimmune diseases has not been previously reported.This study aims to evaluate the causal relationship between eczema and autoimmune diseases.Methods:The two‐sam...Objective:The causal relationship between eczema and autoimmune diseases has not been previously reported.This study aims to evaluate the causal relationship between eczema and autoimmune diseases.Methods:The two‐sample Mendelian randomization(MR)method was used to assess the causal effect of eczema on autoimmune diseases.Summary data from the Genome-Wide Association Study Catalog(GWAS)were obtained from the Integrative Epidemiology Unit(IEU)database.For eczema and autoimmune diseases,genetic instrument variants(GIVs)were identified according to the significant difference(P<5×10−8).Causal effect estimates were generated using the inverse‐variance weighted(IVW)method.MR Egger,maximum likelihood,MR-PRESSO,and MR-RAPS methods were used for alternative analyses.Sensitivity tests,including heterogeneity,horizontal pleiotropy,and leave-one-out analyses,were performed.Finally,reverse causality was assessed.Results:Genetic susceptibility to eczema was associated with an increased risk of Crohn’s disease(OR=1.444,95%CI 1.199 to 1.738,P<0.001)and ulcerative colitis(OR=1.002,95%CI 1.001 to 1.003,P=0.002).However,no causal relationship was found for the other 6 autoimmune diseases,including systemic lupus erythematosus(SLE)(OR=0.932,P=0.401),bullous pemphigoid(BP)(OR=1.191,P=0.642),vitiligo(OR=1.000,P=0.327),multiple sclerosis(MS)(OR=1.000,P=0.965),ankylosing spondylitis(AS)(OR=1.001,P=0.121),rheumatoid arthritis(RA)(OR=1.000,P=0.460).Additionally,no reverse causal relationship was found between autoimmune diseases and eczema.Conclusion:Eczema is associated with an increased risk of Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis.No causal relationship is found between eczema and SLE,MS,AS,RA,BP,or vitiligo.展开更多
Using flexible damping technology to improve tunnel lining structure is an emerging method to resist earthquake disasters,and several methods have been explored to predict mechanical response of tunnel lining with dam...Using flexible damping technology to improve tunnel lining structure is an emerging method to resist earthquake disasters,and several methods have been explored to predict mechanical response of tunnel lining with damping layer.However,the traditional numerical methods suffer from the complex modelling and time-consuming problems.Therefore,a prediction model named the random forest regressor(RFR)is proposed based on 240 numerical simulation results of the mechanical response of tunnel lining.In addition,circle mapping(CM)is used to improve Archimedes optimization algorithm(AOA),reptile search algorithm(RSA),and Chernobyl disaster optimizer(CDO)to further improve the predictive performance of the RFR model.The performance evaluation results show that the CMRSA-RFR is the best prediction model.The damping layer thickness is the most important feature for predicting the maximum principal stress of tunnel lining containing damping layer.This study verifies the feasibility of combining numerical simulation with machine learning technology,and provides a new solution for predicting the mechanical response of aseismic tunnel with damping layer.展开更多
The operation data obtained abroad indicates that shielding failure in UHV transmission lines mostly accounts for the tripping-out accidents introduced by lightning striking the transmission line.Based on the discharg...The operation data obtained abroad indicates that shielding failure in UHV transmission lines mostly accounts for the tripping-out accidents introduced by lightning striking the transmission line.Based on the discharge theories of long air gap and randomness theory,a leader progression model of lightning shielding failure is presented in this paper.The random characteristics of the downward and upward leader are simulated in this model.The ground slope angel is also considered in this model by using coordinate transformation.Moreover,the system voltage is also taken into consideration in this model.The simulation results show that the good agreement between this model and the field data.And the results suggest that return striking exist obviously in UHV transmission line.展开更多
目的评估炎症因子与骨质疏松症(osteoporosis,OP)之间的因果关系。方法从GWAScatalog数据库中获取41个炎症因子和骨密度(bone mineral density,BMD)的GWAS数据,芬兰数据库中获取OP的GWAS数据。采用逆方差加权法(IVW)、MR-Egger回归法(M...目的评估炎症因子与骨质疏松症(osteoporosis,OP)之间的因果关系。方法从GWAScatalog数据库中获取41个炎症因子和骨密度(bone mineral density,BMD)的GWAS数据,芬兰数据库中获取OP的GWAS数据。采用逆方差加权法(IVW)、MR-Egger回归法(MER)、加权中位数法(WME)、简单中位数法和加权中值方法进行两样本孟德尔随机化分析,并以IVW法为主要分析方法。再进行敏感性分析以检验结果的可靠性,留一法评估单核苷酸多态性对结果的影响。最后进行药物预测和分子对接进一步验证炎症因子的药理价值。结果研究表明炎症因子与OP和BMD之间存在因果关系。其中肿瘤坏死因子相关的凋亡诱导配体(TRAIL)和单核细胞趋化蛋白1(MCP-1/MCAF)与OP发生风险呈正相关;肿瘤坏死因子β(TNF-β)与0~15岁人群的BMD呈负相关;白细胞介素7(IL-7)与15~30岁人群的BMD呈负相关;肝细胞生长因子(HGF)与30~45岁人群的BMD呈负相关;巨噬细胞炎性蛋白1α(MIP-1α)和巨噬细胞集落刺激因子(M-CSF)与60岁以上人群的BMD呈负相关;MIP-1α与全年龄段人群的BMD呈负相关。此外,分子对接证明了药物与蛋白质的良好结合,进一步证实了这些靶点的药理价值。结论通过孟德尔随机化方法全面评估了41种炎症因子对OP和BMD的因果效应,表明炎症因子与OP和BMD之间存在因果关联,提示OP患者可以在疾病早期通过干预炎症因子进而干预OP的发生发展过程。展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11671145)the Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality(Grant No.18dz2271000).
文摘In this paper,large deviations principle(LDP)and moderate deviations principle(MDP)of record numbers in random walks are studied under certain conditions.The results show that the rate functions of LDP and MDP are different from those of weak record numbers,which are interesting complements of the conclusions by Li and Yao[1].
基金supported by Doctoral Scientific Research Starting Foundation of Jingdezhen Ceramic University(Grant No.102/01003002031)Re-accompanying Funding Project of Academic Achievements of Jingdezhen Ceramic University(Grant Nos.215/20506277,215/20506341)。
文摘The complete convergence for weighted sums of sequences of independent,identically distributed random variables under sublinear expectation space is studied.By moment inequality and truncation methods,we establish the equivalent conditions of complete convergence for weighted sums of sequences of independent,identically distributed random variables under sublinear expectation space.The results complement the corresponding results in probability space to those for sequences of independent,identically distributed random variables under sublinear expectation space.
基金supported by the National Social Science Fundation(Grant No.21BTJ040)the Project of Outstanding Young People in University of Anhui Province(Grant Nos.2023AH020037,SLXY2024A001).
文摘In this paper,by utilizing the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality and Rosenthal-type inequality of negatively superadditive dependent(NSD)random arrays and truncated method,we investigate the complete f-moment convergence of NSD random variables.We establish and improve a general result on the complete f-moment convergence for Sung’s type randomly weighted sums of NSD random variables under some general assumptions.As an application,we show the complete consistency for the randomly weighted estimator in a nonparametric regression model based on NSD errors.
文摘Missiles provide long-range precision strike capabilities and have become a cornerstone of modern warfare.The contrail clouds formed by missile during their active flight phase present significant chal-lenges to high-altitude environmental observation and target detection and tracking.Existing studies primarily focus on specific airspace regions,leaving critical gaps in understanding the effects of long dispersion times,wide altitude ranges,and variable atmospheric conditions on missile contrail clouds.To address these gaps,this article develops a numerical method based on the Lagrangian random walk model,which incorporates various velocity variation terms,including particle velocity caused by the difference of wind field,by the thermal motion of local gas molecules and by random collisions between contrail cloud particles to capture the influence of environmental wind fields,atmospheric conditions,and particle concentrations on the motion of contrail cloud particles.A general coordinate system aligned with the missile's flight trajectory is employed to represent particle distribution characteristics.The proposed method is in good agreement with the conducted experiments as well as with the available numerical simulations.The results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively simulates the dispersion state of contrail clouds,accurately reflecting the impact of large-scale wind field variations and altitude changes with high computational efficiency.Additionally,simulation results indicate that the increased distance between gas molecules in rarefied environments facilitates enhanced particle dispersion,while larger particles exhibit a faster dispersion rate due to their greater mass.
基金Projects(51039001,51009063) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(SX2010-026) supported by State Council Three Gorges Project Construction Committee Executive Office,China+1 种基金Project(2012BS046) supported by Henan University of Technology,ChinaProject(BYHGLC-2010-02) supported by the Guangzhou Water Authority,China
文摘An integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness was developed in this work to systematically assess the risk of groundwater contamination in a little town, Central China. In this system, randomness of the parameters and the fuzziness of the risk were considered simultaneously, and the exceeding standard probability of contamination and human health risk due to the contamination were integrated. The contamination risk was defined as a combination of "vulnerability" and "hazard". To calculate the value of "vulnerability", pollutant concentration was simulated by MODFLOW with random input variables and a new modified health risk assessment(MRA) model was established to analyze the level of "hazard". The limit concentration based on environmental-guideline and health risk due to manganese were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The "vulnerability" and "hazard" were divided into five categories of "high", "medium-high", "medium", "low-medium" and "low", respectively. Then, "vulnerability" and "hazard" were firstly combined by integrated evaluation. Compared with the other two scenarios under deterministic methods, the risk obtained in the proposed system is higher. This research illustrated that ignoring of uncertainties in evaluation process might underestimate the risk level.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.12061028, 71871046)Support Program of the Guangxi China Science Foundation (Grant No.2018GXNSFAA281011)。
文摘In this paper,we investigate the complete convergence and complete moment conver-gence for weighted sums of arrays of rowwise asymptotically negatively associated(ANA)random variables,without assuming identical distribution.The obtained results not only extend those of An and Yuan[1]and Shen et al.[2]to the case of ANA random variables,but also partially improve them.
文摘The article introduces a finite element procedure using the bilinear quadrilateral element or four-node rectangular element(namely Q4 element) based on a refined first-order shear deformation theory(rFSDT) and Monte Carlo simulation(MCS), so-called refined stochastic finite element method to investigate the random vibration of functionally graded material(FGM) plates subjected to the moving load.The advantage of the proposed method is to use r-FSDT to improve the accuracy of classical FSDT, satisfy the stress-free condition at the plate boundaries, and combine with MCS to analyze the vibration of the FGM plate when the parameter inputs are random quantities following a normal distribution. The obtained results show that the distribution characteristics of the vibration response of the FGM plate depend on the standard deviation of the input parameters and the velocity of the moving load.Furthermore, the numerical results in this study are expected to contribute to improving the understanding of FGM plates subjected to moving loads with uncertain input parameters.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12171451,72091212).
文摘Mendelian randomization(MR)is widely used in causal mediation analysis to control unmeasured confounding effects,which is valid under some strong assumptions.It is thus of great interest to assess the impact of violations of these MR assumptions through sensitivity analysis.Sensitivity analyses have been conducted for simple MR-based causal average effect analyses,but they are not available for MR-based mediation analysis studies,and we aim to fill this gap in this paper.We propose to use two sensitivity parameters to quantify the effect due to the deviation of the IV assumptions.With these two sensitivity parameters,we derive consistent indirect causal effect estimators and establish their asymptotic propersties.Our theoretical results can be used in MR-based mediation analysis to study the impact of violations of MR as-sumptions.The finite sample performance of the proposed method is illustrated through simulation studies,sensitivity ana-lysis,and application to a real genome-wide association study.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (82273506,82273508)the Hunan Provincial Health Commission Scientific Research Plan Project (D202304128334),China。
文摘Objective:The causal relationship between eczema and autoimmune diseases has not been previously reported.This study aims to evaluate the causal relationship between eczema and autoimmune diseases.Methods:The two‐sample Mendelian randomization(MR)method was used to assess the causal effect of eczema on autoimmune diseases.Summary data from the Genome-Wide Association Study Catalog(GWAS)were obtained from the Integrative Epidemiology Unit(IEU)database.For eczema and autoimmune diseases,genetic instrument variants(GIVs)were identified according to the significant difference(P<5×10−8).Causal effect estimates were generated using the inverse‐variance weighted(IVW)method.MR Egger,maximum likelihood,MR-PRESSO,and MR-RAPS methods were used for alternative analyses.Sensitivity tests,including heterogeneity,horizontal pleiotropy,and leave-one-out analyses,were performed.Finally,reverse causality was assessed.Results:Genetic susceptibility to eczema was associated with an increased risk of Crohn’s disease(OR=1.444,95%CI 1.199 to 1.738,P<0.001)and ulcerative colitis(OR=1.002,95%CI 1.001 to 1.003,P=0.002).However,no causal relationship was found for the other 6 autoimmune diseases,including systemic lupus erythematosus(SLE)(OR=0.932,P=0.401),bullous pemphigoid(BP)(OR=1.191,P=0.642),vitiligo(OR=1.000,P=0.327),multiple sclerosis(MS)(OR=1.000,P=0.965),ankylosing spondylitis(AS)(OR=1.001,P=0.121),rheumatoid arthritis(RA)(OR=1.000,P=0.460).Additionally,no reverse causal relationship was found between autoimmune diseases and eczema.Conclusion:Eczema is associated with an increased risk of Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis.No causal relationship is found between eczema and SLE,MS,AS,RA,BP,or vitiligo.
基金Project(2023YFB2390400)supported by the National Key R&D Programs for Young Scientists,ChinaProjects(U21A20159,52079133,52379112,52309123,41902288)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China+5 种基金Project(2024AFB041)supported by the Hubei Provincial Natural Science Foundation,ChinaProject(QTKS0034W23291)supported by the Key Laboratory of Water Grid Project and Regulation of Ministry of Water Resources,ChinaProject(2023SGG07)supported by the Visiting Researcher Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,ChinaProject(2022KY56(ZDZX)-02)supported by the Key Research Program of FSDI,ChinaProject(SKS-2022103)supported by the Key Research Program of the Ministry of Water Resources,ChinaProject(202102AF080001)supported by the Yunnan Major Science and Technology Special Program,China。
文摘Using flexible damping technology to improve tunnel lining structure is an emerging method to resist earthquake disasters,and several methods have been explored to predict mechanical response of tunnel lining with damping layer.However,the traditional numerical methods suffer from the complex modelling and time-consuming problems.Therefore,a prediction model named the random forest regressor(RFR)is proposed based on 240 numerical simulation results of the mechanical response of tunnel lining.In addition,circle mapping(CM)is used to improve Archimedes optimization algorithm(AOA),reptile search algorithm(RSA),and Chernobyl disaster optimizer(CDO)to further improve the predictive performance of the RFR model.The performance evaluation results show that the CMRSA-RFR is the best prediction model.The damping layer thickness is the most important feature for predicting the maximum principal stress of tunnel lining containing damping layer.This study verifies the feasibility of combining numerical simulation with machine learning technology,and provides a new solution for predicting the mechanical response of aseismic tunnel with damping layer.
基金Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （50707036）, Key Project of the National Eleventh-five Year Research Program of China （2006BAA02A18）.
文摘The operation data obtained abroad indicates that shielding failure in UHV transmission lines mostly accounts for the tripping-out accidents introduced by lightning striking the transmission line.Based on the discharge theories of long air gap and randomness theory,a leader progression model of lightning shielding failure is presented in this paper.The random characteristics of the downward and upward leader are simulated in this model.The ground slope angel is also considered in this model by using coordinate transformation.Moreover,the system voltage is also taken into consideration in this model.The simulation results show that the good agreement between this model and the field data.And the results suggest that return striking exist obviously in UHV transmission line.
文摘目的评估炎症因子与骨质疏松症(osteoporosis,OP)之间的因果关系。方法从GWAScatalog数据库中获取41个炎症因子和骨密度(bone mineral density,BMD)的GWAS数据,芬兰数据库中获取OP的GWAS数据。采用逆方差加权法(IVW)、MR-Egger回归法(MER)、加权中位数法(WME)、简单中位数法和加权中值方法进行两样本孟德尔随机化分析,并以IVW法为主要分析方法。再进行敏感性分析以检验结果的可靠性,留一法评估单核苷酸多态性对结果的影响。最后进行药物预测和分子对接进一步验证炎症因子的药理价值。结果研究表明炎症因子与OP和BMD之间存在因果关系。其中肿瘤坏死因子相关的凋亡诱导配体(TRAIL)和单核细胞趋化蛋白1(MCP-1/MCAF)与OP发生风险呈正相关;肿瘤坏死因子β(TNF-β)与0~15岁人群的BMD呈负相关;白细胞介素7(IL-7)与15~30岁人群的BMD呈负相关;肝细胞生长因子(HGF)与30~45岁人群的BMD呈负相关;巨噬细胞炎性蛋白1α(MIP-1α)和巨噬细胞集落刺激因子(M-CSF)与60岁以上人群的BMD呈负相关;MIP-1α与全年龄段人群的BMD呈负相关。此外,分子对接证明了药物与蛋白质的良好结合,进一步证实了这些靶点的药理价值。结论通过孟德尔随机化方法全面评估了41种炎症因子对OP和BMD的因果效应,表明炎症因子与OP和BMD之间存在因果关联,提示OP患者可以在疾病早期通过干预炎症因子进而干预OP的发生发展过程。
