PM_(2.5) forecasting technology can provide a scientific and effective way to assist environmental governance and protect public health.To forecast PM_(2.5),an enhanced hybrid ensemble deep learning model is proposed ...PM_(2.5) forecasting technology can provide a scientific and effective way to assist environmental governance and protect public health.To forecast PM_(2.5),an enhanced hybrid ensemble deep learning model is proposed in this research.The whole framework of the proposed model can be generalized as follows:the original PM_(2.5) series is decomposed into 8 sub-series with different frequency characteristics by variational mode decomposition(VMD);the long short-term memory(LSTM)network,echo state network(ESN),and temporal convolutional network(TCN)are applied for parallel forecasting for 8 different frequency PM_(2.5) sub-series;the gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)is applied to assemble and reconstruct the forecasting results of LSTM,ESN and TCN.By comparing the forecasting data of the models over 3 PM_(2.5) series collected from Shenyang,Changsha and Shenzhen,the conclusions can be drawn that GBDT is a more effective method to integrate the forecasting result than traditional heuristic algorithms;MAE values of the proposed model on 3 PM_(2.5) series are 1.587,1.718 and 1.327μg/m3,respectively and the proposed model achieves more accurate results for all experiments than sixteen alternative forecasting models which contain three state-of-the-art models.展开更多
本研究旨在提升湖南省盛夏(7、8月)高温过程的延伸期预报技巧。本文利用1999—2022年湖南省97个站点逐日最高气温资料以及次季节-季节(sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction,S2S)模式数据中欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)和美国国家环境...本研究旨在提升湖南省盛夏(7、8月)高温过程的延伸期预报技巧。本文利用1999—2022年湖南省97个站点逐日最高气温资料以及次季节-季节(sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction,S2S)模式数据中欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)两种模式预报产品,并基于模式温度与环流预报产品提取物理因子,结合卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network,CNN)构建了湖南省盛夏高温过程的预报模型(high temperature prediction model,HTPM);对订正后的S2S模式和构建的预报模型结果进行集成,以实现对区域高温过程较为稳定的相对高技巧预报。结果表明:S2S模式的原始预报技巧较低,偏差订正能显著提高预报效果,但存在较高的空报率;基于ECMWF的S2S数据训练的高温预报模型(HTPM-ECS2S)和基于NCEP的S2S数据训练的高温预报模型(HTPM-NCEPS2S)能有效捕捉高温事件,在高温预报中具有较高的预报技巧;集成方案有效整合了多模型优点,可提升预报的准确性和可靠性。展开更多
分别从“点对点”雨量检验和降水空间结构特征检验两方面对多个数值模式东亚夏季中短期逐日降水集合预报进行评估,结果表明不同模式对降水的不同方面存在不一样的预报能力。借助基于对象的诊断评估方法(method for object-based diagnos...分别从“点对点”雨量检验和降水空间结构特征检验两方面对多个数值模式东亚夏季中短期逐日降水集合预报进行评估,结果表明不同模式对降水的不同方面存在不一样的预报能力。借助基于对象的诊断评估方法(method for object-based diagnostic evaluation,简称MODE)提出了基于降水对象的超级集合(Object-based Superensemble,简称OBJSUP)模型,采用观测场和预报场中降水对象空间结构的相似度来分配各个成员模式的权重,有别于利用传统“点对点”误差分析来计算权重的超级集合(Gridpoint-based Superensemble,简称GPSUP)。相比于最优单模式,两种多模式集成预报均有效地提高了中短期降水预报技巧,且OBJSUP模型整体优于GPSUP模型,主要原因在于OBJSUP模型可以较好地改进降水对象的质心位置预报。为进一步检验多模式集成模型对强降水空间结构特征的预报能力,针对2018年夏季广东一次极端强降水事件,多模式集成预报与高分辨率区域模式动力降尺度预报对比表明,多模式集成对强降水的预报不足,但对广东省逐日大雨量级降水和过程累积降水量空间分布预报较好。高分辨率区域模式对此个例中粤东地区发生的强降水具有一定的预报能力,但对广东省其他地区降水量预报偏弱。展开更多
基金Project(52072412)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2019CX005)supported by the Innovation Driven Project of the Central South University,China。
文摘PM_(2.5) forecasting technology can provide a scientific and effective way to assist environmental governance and protect public health.To forecast PM_(2.5),an enhanced hybrid ensemble deep learning model is proposed in this research.The whole framework of the proposed model can be generalized as follows:the original PM_(2.5) series is decomposed into 8 sub-series with different frequency characteristics by variational mode decomposition(VMD);the long short-term memory(LSTM)network,echo state network(ESN),and temporal convolutional network(TCN)are applied for parallel forecasting for 8 different frequency PM_(2.5) sub-series;the gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)is applied to assemble and reconstruct the forecasting results of LSTM,ESN and TCN.By comparing the forecasting data of the models over 3 PM_(2.5) series collected from Shenyang,Changsha and Shenzhen,the conclusions can be drawn that GBDT is a more effective method to integrate the forecasting result than traditional heuristic algorithms;MAE values of the proposed model on 3 PM_(2.5) series are 1.587,1.718 and 1.327μg/m3,respectively and the proposed model achieves more accurate results for all experiments than sixteen alternative forecasting models which contain three state-of-the-art models.
文摘本研究旨在提升湖南省盛夏(7、8月)高温过程的延伸期预报技巧。本文利用1999—2022年湖南省97个站点逐日最高气温资料以及次季节-季节(sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction,S2S)模式数据中欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)两种模式预报产品,并基于模式温度与环流预报产品提取物理因子,结合卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network,CNN)构建了湖南省盛夏高温过程的预报模型(high temperature prediction model,HTPM);对订正后的S2S模式和构建的预报模型结果进行集成,以实现对区域高温过程较为稳定的相对高技巧预报。结果表明:S2S模式的原始预报技巧较低,偏差订正能显著提高预报效果,但存在较高的空报率;基于ECMWF的S2S数据训练的高温预报模型(HTPM-ECS2S)和基于NCEP的S2S数据训练的高温预报模型(HTPM-NCEPS2S)能有效捕捉高温事件,在高温预报中具有较高的预报技巧;集成方案有效整合了多模型优点,可提升预报的准确性和可靠性。
