PM_(2.5) forecasting technology can provide a scientific and effective way to assist environmental governance and protect public health.To forecast PM_(2.5),an enhanced hybrid ensemble deep learning model is proposed ...PM_(2.5) forecasting technology can provide a scientific and effective way to assist environmental governance and protect public health.To forecast PM_(2.5),an enhanced hybrid ensemble deep learning model is proposed in this research.The whole framework of the proposed model can be generalized as follows:the original PM_(2.5) series is decomposed into 8 sub-series with different frequency characteristics by variational mode decomposition(VMD);the long short-term memory(LSTM)network,echo state network(ESN),and temporal convolutional network(TCN)are applied for parallel forecasting for 8 different frequency PM_(2.5) sub-series;the gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)is applied to assemble and reconstruct the forecasting results of LSTM,ESN and TCN.By comparing the forecasting data of the models over 3 PM_(2.5) series collected from Shenyang,Changsha and Shenzhen,the conclusions can be drawn that GBDT is a more effective method to integrate the forecasting result than traditional heuristic algorithms;MAE values of the proposed model on 3 PM_(2.5) series are 1.587,1.718 and 1.327μg/m3,respectively and the proposed model achieves more accurate results for all experiments than sixteen alternative forecasting models which contain three state-of-the-art models.展开更多
Target maneuver trajectory prediction is an important prerequisite for air combat situation awareness and maneuver decision-making.However,how to use a large amount of trajectory data generated by air combat confronta...Target maneuver trajectory prediction is an important prerequisite for air combat situation awareness and maneuver decision-making.However,how to use a large amount of trajectory data generated by air combat confrontation training to achieve real-time and accurate prediction of target maneuver trajectory is an urgent problem to be solved.To solve this problem,in this paper,a hybrid algorithm based on transfer learning,online learning,ensemble learning,regularization technology,target maneuvering segmentation point recognition algorithm,and Volterra series,abbreviated as AERTrOS-Volterra is proposed.Firstly,the model makes full use of a large number of trajectory sample data generated by air combat confrontation training,and constructs a Tr-Volterra algorithm framework suitable for air combat target maneuver trajectory prediction,which realizes the extraction of effective information from the historical trajectory data.Secondly,in order to improve the real-time online prediction accuracy and robustness of the prediction model in complex electromagnetic environments,on the basis of the TrVolterra algorithm framework,a robust regularized online Sequential Volterra prediction model is proposed by integrating online learning method,regularization technology and inverse weighting calculation method based on the priori error.Finally,inspired by the preferable performance of models ensemble,ensemble learning scheme is also incorporated into our proposed algorithm,which adaptively updates the ensemble prediction model according to the performance of the model on real-time samples and the recognition results of target maneuvering segmentation points,including the adaptation of model weights;adaptation of parameters;and dynamic inclusion and removal of models.Compared with many existing time series prediction methods,the newly proposed target maneuver trajectory prediction algorithm can fully mine the prior knowledge contained in the historical data to assist the current prediction.The rationality and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are verified by simulation on three sets of chaotic time series data sets and a set of real target maneuver trajectory data sets.展开更多
Because most ensemble learning algorithms use the centralized model, and the training instances must be centralized on a single station, it is difficult to centralize the training data on a station. A distributed ense...Because most ensemble learning algorithms use the centralized model, and the training instances must be centralized on a single station, it is difficult to centralize the training data on a station. A distributed ensemble learning algorithm is proposed which has two kinds of weight genes of instances that denote the global distribution and the local distribution. Instead of the repeated sampling method in the standard ensemble learning, non-balance sampling from each station is used to train the base classifier set of each station. The concept of the effective nearby region for local integration classifier is proposed, and is used for the dynamic integration method of multiple classifiers in distributed environment. The experiments show that the ensemble learning algorithm in distributed environment proposed could reduce the time of training the base classifiers effectively, and ensure the classify performance is as same as the centralized learning method.展开更多
Rockburst prediction is of vital significance to the design and construction of underground hard rock mines.A rockburst database consisting of 102 case histories,i.e.,1998−2011 period data from 14 hard rock mines was ...Rockburst prediction is of vital significance to the design and construction of underground hard rock mines.A rockburst database consisting of 102 case histories,i.e.,1998−2011 period data from 14 hard rock mines was examined for rockburst prediction in burst-prone mines by three tree-based ensemble methods.The dataset was examined with six widely accepted indices which are:the maximum tangential stress around the excavation boundary(MTS),uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)and uniaxial tensile strength(UTS)of the intact rock,stress concentration factor(SCF),rock brittleness index(BI),and strain energy storage index(EEI).Two boosting(AdaBoost.M1,SAMME)and bagging algorithms with classification trees as baseline classifier on ability to learn rockburst were evaluated.The available dataset was randomly divided into training set(2/3 of whole datasets)and testing set(the remaining datasets).Repeated 10-fold cross validation(CV)was applied as the validation method for tuning the hyper-parameters.The margin analysis and the variable relative importance were employed to analyze some characteristics of the ensembles.According to 10-fold CV,the accuracy analysis of rockburst dataset demonstrated that the best prediction method for the potential of rockburst is bagging when compared to AdaBoost.M1,SAMME algorithms and empirical criteria methods.展开更多
An improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm based on ensemble technique is presented. The algorithm combines some previous best positions (pbest) of the particles to get an ensemble position (Epbest), whic...An improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm based on ensemble technique is presented. The algorithm combines some previous best positions (pbest) of the particles to get an ensemble position (Epbest), which is used to replace the global best position (gbest). It is compared with the standard PSO algorithm invented by Kennedy and Eberhart and some improved PSO algorithms based on three different benchmark functions. The simulation results show that the improved PSO based on ensemble technique can get better solutions than the standard PSO and some other improved algorithms under all test cases.展开更多
基金Project(52072412)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2019CX005)supported by the Innovation Driven Project of the Central South University,China。
文摘PM_(2.5) forecasting technology can provide a scientific and effective way to assist environmental governance and protect public health.To forecast PM_(2.5),an enhanced hybrid ensemble deep learning model is proposed in this research.The whole framework of the proposed model can be generalized as follows:the original PM_(2.5) series is decomposed into 8 sub-series with different frequency characteristics by variational mode decomposition(VMD);the long short-term memory(LSTM)network,echo state network(ESN),and temporal convolutional network(TCN)are applied for parallel forecasting for 8 different frequency PM_(2.5) sub-series;the gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)is applied to assemble and reconstruct the forecasting results of LSTM,ESN and TCN.By comparing the forecasting data of the models over 3 PM_(2.5) series collected from Shenyang,Changsha and Shenzhen,the conclusions can be drawn that GBDT is a more effective method to integrate the forecasting result than traditional heuristic algorithms;MAE values of the proposed model on 3 PM_(2.5) series are 1.587,1.718 and 1.327μg/m3,respectively and the proposed model achieves more accurate results for all experiments than sixteen alternative forecasting models which contain three state-of-the-art models.
基金the support of the Fundamental Research Funds for the Air Force Engineering University under Grant No.XZJK2019040。
文摘Target maneuver trajectory prediction is an important prerequisite for air combat situation awareness and maneuver decision-making.However,how to use a large amount of trajectory data generated by air combat confrontation training to achieve real-time and accurate prediction of target maneuver trajectory is an urgent problem to be solved.To solve this problem,in this paper,a hybrid algorithm based on transfer learning,online learning,ensemble learning,regularization technology,target maneuvering segmentation point recognition algorithm,and Volterra series,abbreviated as AERTrOS-Volterra is proposed.Firstly,the model makes full use of a large number of trajectory sample data generated by air combat confrontation training,and constructs a Tr-Volterra algorithm framework suitable for air combat target maneuver trajectory prediction,which realizes the extraction of effective information from the historical trajectory data.Secondly,in order to improve the real-time online prediction accuracy and robustness of the prediction model in complex electromagnetic environments,on the basis of the TrVolterra algorithm framework,a robust regularized online Sequential Volterra prediction model is proposed by integrating online learning method,regularization technology and inverse weighting calculation method based on the priori error.Finally,inspired by the preferable performance of models ensemble,ensemble learning scheme is also incorporated into our proposed algorithm,which adaptively updates the ensemble prediction model according to the performance of the model on real-time samples and the recognition results of target maneuvering segmentation points,including the adaptation of model weights;adaptation of parameters;and dynamic inclusion and removal of models.Compared with many existing time series prediction methods,the newly proposed target maneuver trajectory prediction algorithm can fully mine the prior knowledge contained in the historical data to assist the current prediction.The rationality and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are verified by simulation on three sets of chaotic time series data sets and a set of real target maneuver trajectory data sets.
基金the Natural Science Foundation of Shaan’xi Province (2005F51).
文摘Because most ensemble learning algorithms use the centralized model, and the training instances must be centralized on a single station, it is difficult to centralize the training data on a station. A distributed ensemble learning algorithm is proposed which has two kinds of weight genes of instances that denote the global distribution and the local distribution. Instead of the repeated sampling method in the standard ensemble learning, non-balance sampling from each station is used to train the base classifier set of each station. The concept of the effective nearby region for local integration classifier is proposed, and is used for the dynamic integration method of multiple classifiers in distributed environment. The experiments show that the ensemble learning algorithm in distributed environment proposed could reduce the time of training the base classifiers effectively, and ensure the classify performance is as same as the centralized learning method.
基金Projects(41807259,51604109)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2020CX040)supported by the Innovation-Driven Project of Central South University,ChinaProject(2018JJ3693)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China。
文摘Rockburst prediction is of vital significance to the design and construction of underground hard rock mines.A rockburst database consisting of 102 case histories,i.e.,1998−2011 period data from 14 hard rock mines was examined for rockburst prediction in burst-prone mines by three tree-based ensemble methods.The dataset was examined with six widely accepted indices which are:the maximum tangential stress around the excavation boundary(MTS),uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)and uniaxial tensile strength(UTS)of the intact rock,stress concentration factor(SCF),rock brittleness index(BI),and strain energy storage index(EEI).Two boosting(AdaBoost.M1,SAMME)and bagging algorithms with classification trees as baseline classifier on ability to learn rockburst were evaluated.The available dataset was randomly divided into training set(2/3 of whole datasets)and testing set(the remaining datasets).Repeated 10-fold cross validation(CV)was applied as the validation method for tuning the hyper-parameters.The margin analysis and the variable relative importance were employed to analyze some characteristics of the ensembles.According to 10-fold CV,the accuracy analysis of rockburst dataset demonstrated that the best prediction method for the potential of rockburst is bagging when compared to AdaBoost.M1,SAMME algorithms and empirical criteria methods.
文摘An improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm based on ensemble technique is presented. The algorithm combines some previous best positions (pbest) of the particles to get an ensemble position (Epbest), which is used to replace the global best position (gbest). It is compared with the standard PSO algorithm invented by Kennedy and Eberhart and some improved PSO algorithms based on three different benchmark functions. The simulation results show that the improved PSO based on ensemble technique can get better solutions than the standard PSO and some other improved algorithms under all test cases.
