A dynamic parallel forecasting model is proposed, which is based on the problem of current forecasting models and their combined model. According to the process of the model, the fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is ...A dynamic parallel forecasting model is proposed, which is based on the problem of current forecasting models and their combined model. According to the process of the model, the fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is improved in outliers operation and distance in the clusters and among the clusters. Firstly, the input data sets are optimized and their coherence is ensured, the region scale algorithm is modified and non-isometric multi scale region fuzzy time series model is built. At the same time, the particle swarm optimization algorithm about the particle speed, location and inertia weight value is improved, this method is used to optimize the parameters of support vector machine, construct the combined forecast model, build the dynamic parallel forecast model, and calculate the dynamic weight values and regard the product of the weight value and forecast value to be the final forecast values. At last, the example shows the improved forecast model is effective and accurate.展开更多
Input variables selection(IVS) is proved to be pivotal in nonlinear dynamic system modeling. In order to optimize the model of the nonlinear dynamic system, a fuzzy modeling method for determining the premise structur...Input variables selection(IVS) is proved to be pivotal in nonlinear dynamic system modeling. In order to optimize the model of the nonlinear dynamic system, a fuzzy modeling method for determining the premise structure by selecting important inputs of the system is studied. Firstly, a simplified two stage fuzzy curves method is proposed, which is employed to sort all possible inputs by their relevance with outputs, select the important input variables of the system and identify the structure.Secondly, in order to reduce the complexity of the model, the standard fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm and the recursive least squares algorithm are used to identify the premise parameters and conclusion parameters, respectively. Then, the effectiveness of IVS is verified by two well-known issues. Finally, the proposed identification method is applied to a realistic variable load pneumatic system. The simulation experiments indi cate that the IVS method in this paper has a positive influence on the approximation performance of the Takagi-Sugeno(T-S) fuzzy modeling.展开更多
提出了在输入-输出积空间中利用监督模糊聚类技术快速建立粗糙数据模型(rough data model,简称RDM)的一种方法.该方法将RDM模型的分类质量性能指标与具有良好特性的Gustafson-Kessel(G-K)聚类算法结合在一起,并通过引入数据对模糊类的...提出了在输入-输出积空间中利用监督模糊聚类技术快速建立粗糙数据模型(rough data model,简称RDM)的一种方法.该方法将RDM模型的分类质量性能指标与具有良好特性的Gustafson-Kessel(G-K)聚类算法结合在一起,并通过引入数据对模糊类的推定隶属度的概念,给出了将模糊聚类模型转化为粗糙数据模型的方法,从而设计出一种通过迭代计算使目标函数最小的两个必要条件方程来获取RDM模型的有效算法,将Kowalczyk方法的多维搜索过程变为以聚类数目为参数的一维搜索,极大地减少了寻优时间.与传统的粗糙集理论和Kowalczyk方法相比,提出的方法具有更好的数据概括能力和噪声数据处理能力.最后,通过不同的数据集实验测试,结果表明了该方法的有效性.展开更多
基金supported by the National Defense Preliminary Research Program of China(A157167)the National Defense Fundamental of China(9140A19030314JB35275)
文摘A dynamic parallel forecasting model is proposed, which is based on the problem of current forecasting models and their combined model. According to the process of the model, the fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is improved in outliers operation and distance in the clusters and among the clusters. Firstly, the input data sets are optimized and their coherence is ensured, the region scale algorithm is modified and non-isometric multi scale region fuzzy time series model is built. At the same time, the particle swarm optimization algorithm about the particle speed, location and inertia weight value is improved, this method is used to optimize the parameters of support vector machine, construct the combined forecast model, build the dynamic parallel forecast model, and calculate the dynamic weight values and regard the product of the weight value and forecast value to be the final forecast values. At last, the example shows the improved forecast model is effective and accurate.
基金This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province(F2019203505).
文摘Input variables selection(IVS) is proved to be pivotal in nonlinear dynamic system modeling. In order to optimize the model of the nonlinear dynamic system, a fuzzy modeling method for determining the premise structure by selecting important inputs of the system is studied. Firstly, a simplified two stage fuzzy curves method is proposed, which is employed to sort all possible inputs by their relevance with outputs, select the important input variables of the system and identify the structure.Secondly, in order to reduce the complexity of the model, the standard fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm and the recursive least squares algorithm are used to identify the premise parameters and conclusion parameters, respectively. Then, the effectiveness of IVS is verified by two well-known issues. Finally, the proposed identification method is applied to a realistic variable load pneumatic system. The simulation experiments indi cate that the IVS method in this paper has a positive influence on the approximation performance of the Takagi-Sugeno(T-S) fuzzy modeling.
文摘提出了在输入-输出积空间中利用监督模糊聚类技术快速建立粗糙数据模型(rough data model,简称RDM)的一种方法.该方法将RDM模型的分类质量性能指标与具有良好特性的Gustafson-Kessel(G-K)聚类算法结合在一起,并通过引入数据对模糊类的推定隶属度的概念,给出了将模糊聚类模型转化为粗糙数据模型的方法,从而设计出一种通过迭代计算使目标函数最小的两个必要条件方程来获取RDM模型的有效算法,将Kowalczyk方法的多维搜索过程变为以聚类数目为参数的一维搜索,极大地减少了寻优时间.与传统的粗糙集理论和Kowalczyk方法相比,提出的方法具有更好的数据概括能力和噪声数据处理能力.最后,通过不同的数据集实验测试,结果表明了该方法的有效性.
