Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of...Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.展开更多
Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objec...Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objective generally includes three elements: time, cost, quality. Risk occurrin g in the projects will affect these three factors to some various degrees in the end. There are different emphases in each stage and integrated balanced goals b etween the three factors. A large complex engineering project generally consists of several stages each of which has variable objective combinations leading to variable important risks. In order to achieve strategic goals on the schedule under the restriction of lim ited resources, the paper gives the analysis of the so-called risk identificati on-assessment process on the basis of objective orientation. In this paper the set of involved mostly hazards is presented in terms of given objective weight v ector, and so is the model of risk ranking .By reducing the range of risk factor s step by step, risk manager could pay more attention to important ventures and effectively control of them. According to different objective combination at different stages, primary risk f actor sets at different stages are given. With the probability and their various effects to project objectives, evaluation of these sets is made aiming to r educing of the scope of risks and providing decision maker with a better decisio ns support. Successful projects are those, which focus on the relevant business objectives t hroughout the whole process and seek to information integration across project l ife cycle. This paper also introduces the idea of real time process of risk iden tification-assessment and presents a flow chart as a demonstration.展开更多
Five trace elements including Zn, Cu, Cd, Cr and As were investigated in surface water from ten typical sampling sites in Honghu Lake. The consequence indicated that all of the detected trace element levels were withi...Five trace elements including Zn, Cu, Cd, Cr and As were investigated in surface water from ten typical sampling sites in Honghu Lake. The consequence indicated that all of the detected trace element levels were within the allowed standard of China’s safe water guideline. The hazard quotients （HQ） and the hazard index （HI） value levels of all the five heavy metals in all sampling sites did not exceed the acceptable risk limits of non-carcinogenic value through the selected assessment method. Pearson’s correlation analysis and principal component analysis （PCA） indicated that Zn and Cu mainly originated from the natural alluviation and non-point agricultural sources, whereas Cr and As were mainly derived from industrial effluents. Moreover, Cd mainly originated from both non-point agricultural and industrial pollution sources. In addition, cluster analysis （CA） implied that cluster 1 （including S3, S5, S6 and S10） was considered the set of high pollution sites and cluster 2 （including S4 and S9） was identified as the set of moderate pollution sites.展开更多
Forest fire accidents caused by distribution line faults occur frequently,resulting in heavy impacts on people’s safety and social and economic development.Currently,there are few risk assessments for forest fires in...Forest fire accidents caused by distribution line faults occur frequently,resulting in heavy impacts on people’s safety and social and economic development.Currently,there are few risk assessments for forest fires induced by over-head distribution lines,and existing assessment methods may have difficulties in data acquisition.On this basis,a novel as-sessment framework based on an analytic hierarchy process,a Bayesian network and a Fussel-Vesely importance metric is proposed in this paper.The framework combines field research and historical operation and maintenance data to assess the regional-scale risk of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines to derive the probability of forest fires and to identify high-risk lines and key hazard events in the assessment region.Finally,taking the southern Anhui region as an ex-ample,the annual fire probability of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines in the southern Anhui region is 5.88%,and rectification measures are proposed.This study provides management with a complete assessment framework that optimizes the difficulty of data collection and allows for additional targeted corrective measures to be proposed for the entire region and route on the basis of the assessment results.展开更多
目前,空管各类安全管理信息化平台积累了大量非结构化文本数据,但未得到充分利用,为了挖掘空管不正常事件中潜藏的风险,研究利用收集的四千余条空管站不正常事件数据和自构建的4836个空管领域专业术语词,提出了一个基于空管专业信息词...目前,空管各类安全管理信息化平台积累了大量非结构化文本数据,但未得到充分利用,为了挖掘空管不正常事件中潜藏的风险,研究利用收集的四千余条空管站不正常事件数据和自构建的4836个空管领域专业术语词,提出了一个基于空管专业信息词抽取的双向编码器表征法和双向长短时记忆网络的深度学习模型(Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers-Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory,BERT-BiLSTM)。该模型通过对不正常事件文本进行信息抽取,过滤其中无用信息,并将双向编码器表征法(Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers,BERT)模型输出的特征向量序列作为双向长短时记忆网络(Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory,BiLSTM)的输入序列,以对空管不正常事件文本风险识别任务进行对比试验。试验结果显示,在风险识别试验中,基于空管专业信息词抽取的BERT-BiLSTM模型相比于通用领域的BERT模型,风险识别准确率提升了3百分点。可以看出该模型有效提升了空管安全信息处理能力,能够有效识别空管部门日常运行中出现的不正常事件所带来的风险,同时可以为空管安全领域信息挖掘相关任务提供基础参考。展开更多
大规模风电并网导致电力系统惯量和一次调频响应资源减少,大扰动下系统频率安全问题突出。为应对风电不确定性和系统惯量降低的挑战,提出计及风电频率支撑能力和运行风险的鲁棒机组组合(unitcommitment,UC)模型。首先,通过系统发生有功...大规模风电并网导致电力系统惯量和一次调频响应资源减少,大扰动下系统频率安全问题突出。为应对风电不确定性和系统惯量降低的挑战,提出计及风电频率支撑能力和运行风险的鲁棒机组组合(unitcommitment,UC)模型。首先,通过系统发生有功扰动后频率偏差动力学摆动方程建立频率安全的运行约束模型,并嵌入到UC问题中。其次,考虑到风电出力不确定性,提出风电出力鲁棒可行域定义以表征系统接纳风电的安全运行范围,并基于此提出系统运行风险模型。最后,基于两阶段鲁棒优化理论提出计及风电频率支撑能力和运行风险的UC鲁棒优化模型,并采用列和约束生成(column and constraint generation,C&CG)算法求解该模型。在IEEE9和IEEE118节点测试系统进行仿真分析,结果验证了所提模型的有效性。展开更多
文摘Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.
文摘Risk management of projects is about the real time ev aluation and making of decisions proactively in order to maximize the probabilit y of achieving or surpassing the targets set for project objectives. Project objective generally includes three elements: time, cost, quality. Risk occurrin g in the projects will affect these three factors to some various degrees in the end. There are different emphases in each stage and integrated balanced goals b etween the three factors. A large complex engineering project generally consists of several stages each of which has variable objective combinations leading to variable important risks. In order to achieve strategic goals on the schedule under the restriction of lim ited resources, the paper gives the analysis of the so-called risk identificati on-assessment process on the basis of objective orientation. In this paper the set of involved mostly hazards is presented in terms of given objective weight v ector, and so is the model of risk ranking .By reducing the range of risk factor s step by step, risk manager could pay more attention to important ventures and effectively control of them. According to different objective combination at different stages, primary risk f actor sets at different stages are given. With the probability and their various effects to project objectives, evaluation of these sets is made aiming to r educing of the scope of risks and providing decision maker with a better decisio ns support. Successful projects are those, which focus on the relevant business objectives t hroughout the whole process and seek to information integration across project l ife cycle. This paper also introduces the idea of real time process of risk iden tification-assessment and presents a flow chart as a demonstration.
基金Projects(51578222,51178172) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(17Z017,17G025) supported by the Humanities and Social Science Project of Hubei Provincial Education Department,China+1 种基金Project(1718WT15) supported by the Hubei College Student Affairs Research Institute,ChinaProjects(2016J1410,2016J1411) supported by the Graduate Innovative Education Program of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,China
文摘Five trace elements including Zn, Cu, Cd, Cr and As were investigated in surface water from ten typical sampling sites in Honghu Lake. The consequence indicated that all of the detected trace element levels were within the allowed standard of China’s safe water guideline. The hazard quotients （HQ） and the hazard index （HI） value levels of all the five heavy metals in all sampling sites did not exceed the acceptable risk limits of non-carcinogenic value through the selected assessment method. Pearson’s correlation analysis and principal component analysis （PCA） indicated that Zn and Cu mainly originated from the natural alluviation and non-point agricultural sources, whereas Cr and As were mainly derived from industrial effluents. Moreover, Cd mainly originated from both non-point agricultural and industrial pollution sources. In addition, cluster analysis （CA） implied that cluster 1 （including S3, S5, S6 and S10） was considered the set of high pollution sites and cluster 2 （including S4 and S9） was identified as the set of moderate pollution sites.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3003101)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(WK2320000050)the Science and Technology Program of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.(521205220001).
文摘Forest fire accidents caused by distribution line faults occur frequently,resulting in heavy impacts on people’s safety and social and economic development.Currently,there are few risk assessments for forest fires induced by over-head distribution lines,and existing assessment methods may have difficulties in data acquisition.On this basis,a novel as-sessment framework based on an analytic hierarchy process,a Bayesian network and a Fussel-Vesely importance metric is proposed in this paper.The framework combines field research and historical operation and maintenance data to assess the regional-scale risk of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines to derive the probability of forest fires and to identify high-risk lines and key hazard events in the assessment region.Finally,taking the southern Anhui region as an ex-ample,the annual fire probability of forest fires induced by overhead distribution lines in the southern Anhui region is 5.88%,and rectification measures are proposed.This study provides management with a complete assessment framework that optimizes the difficulty of data collection and allows for additional targeted corrective measures to be proposed for the entire region and route on the basis of the assessment results.
文摘目前,空管各类安全管理信息化平台积累了大量非结构化文本数据,但未得到充分利用,为了挖掘空管不正常事件中潜藏的风险,研究利用收集的四千余条空管站不正常事件数据和自构建的4836个空管领域专业术语词,提出了一个基于空管专业信息词抽取的双向编码器表征法和双向长短时记忆网络的深度学习模型(Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers-Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory,BERT-BiLSTM)。该模型通过对不正常事件文本进行信息抽取,过滤其中无用信息,并将双向编码器表征法(Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers,BERT)模型输出的特征向量序列作为双向长短时记忆网络(Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory,BiLSTM)的输入序列,以对空管不正常事件文本风险识别任务进行对比试验。试验结果显示,在风险识别试验中,基于空管专业信息词抽取的BERT-BiLSTM模型相比于通用领域的BERT模型,风险识别准确率提升了3百分点。可以看出该模型有效提升了空管安全信息处理能力,能够有效识别空管部门日常运行中出现的不正常事件所带来的风险,同时可以为空管安全领域信息挖掘相关任务提供基础参考。
文摘大规模风电并网导致电力系统惯量和一次调频响应资源减少,大扰动下系统频率安全问题突出。为应对风电不确定性和系统惯量降低的挑战,提出计及风电频率支撑能力和运行风险的鲁棒机组组合(unitcommitment,UC)模型。首先,通过系统发生有功扰动后频率偏差动力学摆动方程建立频率安全的运行约束模型,并嵌入到UC问题中。其次,考虑到风电出力不确定性,提出风电出力鲁棒可行域定义以表征系统接纳风电的安全运行范围,并基于此提出系统运行风险模型。最后,基于两阶段鲁棒优化理论提出计及风电频率支撑能力和运行风险的UC鲁棒优化模型,并采用列和约束生成(column and constraint generation,C&CG)算法求解该模型。在IEEE9和IEEE118节点测试系统进行仿真分析,结果验证了所提模型的有效性。
