The wheel brake system safety is a complex problem which refers to its technical state, operating environment, human factors, etc., in aircraft landing taxiing process. Usually, professors consider system safety with ...The wheel brake system safety is a complex problem which refers to its technical state, operating environment, human factors, etc., in aircraft landing taxiing process. Usually, professors consider system safety with traditional probability techniques based on the linear chain of events. However, it could not comprehensively analyze system safety problems, especially in operating environment, interaction of subsystems, and human factors. Thus,we consider system safety as a control problem based on the system-theoretic accident model, the processes(STAMP) model and the system theoretic process analysis(STPA) technique to compensate the deficiency of traditional techniques. Meanwhile,system safety simulation is considered as system control simulation, and Monte Carlo methods are used which consider the range of uncertain parameters and operation deviation to quantitatively study system safety influence factors in control simulation. Firstly,we construct the STAMP model and STPA feedback control loop of the wheel brake system based on the system functional requirement. Then four unsafe control actions are identified, and causes of them are analyzed. Finally, we construct the Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze different scenarios under disturbance. The results provide a basis for choosing corresponding process model variables in constructing the context table and show that appropriate brake strategies could prevent hazards in aircraft landing taxiing.展开更多
Basing on discrete event simulation, a reliability simulation algorithm of the phased-mission system with multiple states is put forth. Firstly, the concepts and main characters of phasedmission system are discussed, ...Basing on discrete event simulation, a reliability simulation algorithm of the phased-mission system with multiple states is put forth. Firstly, the concepts and main characters of phasedmission system are discussed, and an active and standby redundancy (AS) tree structure method to describe the system structure of each mission phase is brought forward. Secondly, the behavior of the phased-mission system with multiple states is discussed with the theory of state chart. Thirdly, basing on the discrete event simulation concept, a simulation algorithm to estimate reliability parameters of the phased-mission system with multiple states is explored. Finally, an example is introduced and analyzed, and the analysis result verifies the algorithms. The simulation algorithm is practical and versatile, for it can model complex behavior of phased-mission system flexibly, and more reliability parameters to understand system operation can be attained.展开更多
In this paper, a mathematical model of real-time simulation is given, and the problem of convergence on real-time Runge-Kutta algorithms is analysed. At last a theorem on the relation between the order of compensation...In this paper, a mathematical model of real-time simulation is given, and the problem of convergence on real-time Runge-Kutta algorithms is analysed. At last a theorem on the relation between the order of compensation and the convergent order of real-time algorithm is proved.展开更多
Accurate 3-D fracture network model for rock mass in dam foundation is of vital importance for stability,grouting and seepage analysis of dam foundation.With the aim of reducing deviation between fracture network mode...Accurate 3-D fracture network model for rock mass in dam foundation is of vital importance for stability,grouting and seepage analysis of dam foundation.With the aim of reducing deviation between fracture network model and measured data,a 3-D fracture network dynamic modeling method based on error analysis was proposed.Firstly,errors of four fracture volume density estimation methods(proposed by ODA,KULATILAKE,MAULDON,and SONG)and that of four fracture size estimation methods(proposed by EINSTEIN,SONG and TONON)were respectively compared,and the optimal methods were determined.Additionally,error index representing the deviation between fracture network model and measured data was established with integrated use of fractal dimension and relative absolute error(RAE).On this basis,the downhill simplex method was used to build the dynamic modeling method,which takes the minimum of error index as objective function and dynamically adjusts the fracture density and size parameters to correct the error index.Finally,the 3-D fracture network model could be obtained which meets the requirements.The proposed method was applied for 3-D fractures simulation in Miao Wei hydropower project in China for feasibility verification and the error index reduced from 2.618 to 0.337.展开更多
This paper surveys a number of recent advances in the error analysis in the frequency domain for a digital simulation model. It is emphasized to discuss the errors in characteristic roots and transfer funcnon of the d...This paper surveys a number of recent advances in the error analysis in the frequency domain for a digital simulation model. It is emphasized to discuss the errors in characteristic roots and transfer funcnon of the digital simulation model, the frequency domain errors of the data transfers between thesimulation submodels, and some compensation methods for the errors. Some of the questions to be answered are also presented.展开更多
A logic fault tree of mine spontaneous combustion of sulphide ores was built by the fault tree analysis (FTA) based on a lot of mechanism investigation of sulphide ore spontaneous combustion in more than ten mines an...A logic fault tree of mine spontaneous combustion of sulphide ores was built by the fault tree analysis (FTA) based on a lot of mechanism investigation of sulphide ore spontaneous combustion in more than ten mines and review of a great amount of relevant展开更多
The sources of supply chain enterprise risk from different aspects including material flow, information flow, cash flow and partner relationship is analyzed. Measures for risk reduction have also been summarized from ...The sources of supply chain enterprise risk from different aspects including material flow, information flow, cash flow and partner relationship is analyzed. Measures for risk reduction have also been summarized from the aspects of risk sharing, information sharing, change of inventory control mode, and supply chain flexibility. Finally, problems in current research on supply chain risk management are pointed out and a discussion on future research trend is presented.展开更多
The utilization of prefabricated light modular radiant heating system has demonstrated significant increases in heat transfer efficiency and energy conservation capabilities.Within prefabricated building construction,...The utilization of prefabricated light modular radiant heating system has demonstrated significant increases in heat transfer efficiency and energy conservation capabilities.Within prefabricated building construction,this new heating method presents an opportunity for the development of comprehensive facilities.The parameters for evaluating the effectiveness of such a system are the upper surface layer’s heat flux and temperature.In this paper,thermal resistance analysis calculation based on a simplified model for this unique radiant heating system analysis is presented with the heat transfer mechanism’s evaluation.The results obtained from thermal resistance analysis calculation and numerical simulation indicate that the thermal resistance analysis method is highly accurate with temperature discrepancies ranging from 0.44℃ to−0.44℃ and a heat flux discrepancy of less than 7.54%,which can meet the requirements of practical engineering applications,suggesting a foundation for the prefabricated radiant heating system.展开更多
A technology for unintended lane departure warning was proposed. As crucial information, lane boundaries were detected based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution in search bars of given number and...A technology for unintended lane departure warning was proposed. As crucial information, lane boundaries were detected based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution in search bars of given number and then each search bar was tracked using Kalman filter between frames. The lane detection performance was evaluated and demonstrated in ways of receiver operating characteristic, dice similarity coefficient and real-time performance. For lane departure detection, a lane departure risk evaluation model based on lasting time and frequency was effectively executed on the ARM-based platform. Experimental results indicate that the algorithm generates satisfactory lane detection results under different traffic and lighting conditions, and the proposed warning mechanism sends effective warning signals, avoiding most false warning.展开更多
The Okiep Copper District is the oldest mining district in South Africa with a legacy of more than 150 years of mining.This legacy can be felt in the presence of large tailings dams scattered throughout the area.These...The Okiep Copper District is the oldest mining district in South Africa with a legacy of more than 150 years of mining.This legacy can be felt in the presence of large tailings dams scattered throughout the area.These tailings have a deleterious impact on the surrounding environment.To use geochemical methods in determining the scale of the impact, pre-mining background levels need to be determined. This is especially difficult in areas for which展开更多
A methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios is presented.Its main idea is to let the system model ＂express itself＂ through simulation.This is achieved by having the simulation model driven by an elabor...A methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios is presented.Its main idea is to let the system model ＂express itself＂ through simulation.This is achieved by having the simulation model driven by an elaborated simulation engine,which：（i） manipulates the generation of branch points,i.e.event occurrence times;（ii） employs a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible branch paths at each branch point.In addition,a backtracking technique,as an extension,is implemented to recover some missed risk scenarios.A widely discussed dynamic reliability example（a holdup tank） is used to aid in the explanation of and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.展开更多
This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relev...This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relevant process parameters and initial conditions) have a significant influence on the evolution of the system.The main idea of the methodology is:(i) making the system model "express itself" through simulation by having the model driven by an elaborated simulation engine;(ii) exploiting uniform design to pick out a small subset of representative design points from the space of relevant dynamic characteristics;(iii) for each selected design point,employing a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible scenario branches at each branch point.A highly dynamic example adapted from the literature(a chemical batch reactor) is studied to test the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.展开更多
The competence set analysis technology can be applied to solve the decision making problems successfully and satisfactorily. This paper mainly focuses on the expanding strategy research and development of the competen...The competence set analysis technology can be applied to solve the decision making problems successfully and satisfactorily. This paper mainly focuses on the expanding strategy research and development of the competence set under risk and uncertainty. A systematic expression of the competence set analysis is described, several expanding principles and strategies with regard to several different cases are presented, and their applications in the personnel training program are discussed, some conclusions and suggestions to be developed in a further work are included.展开更多
Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza （HPAI） H5N 1 have taken place in 15 countries in Asia, Europe and Africa since 2003, and have caused great economic losses. Much likelihood has been considered as risk ...Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza （HPAI） H5N 1 have taken place in 15 countries in Asia, Europe and Africa since 2003, and have caused great economic losses. Much likelihood has been considered as risk factors, of which wild birds are attributed as one of the main factors. This is related to the environmental deterioration in the wetland and expanse of human＇s activities in production. The risk analysis in this paper only focused on the effect of wild birds to HPAI, and confirmed the high risk of wild birds in the spread of AIVs.展开更多
Objective To define risk stratification and guide optimal surgical timing of perioperative viral respiratory infection(VRI)in children with cardiac surgery.Methods Retrospective study with propensity score-matched ana...Objective To define risk stratification and guide optimal surgical timing of perioperative viral respiratory infection(VRI)in children with cardiac surgery.Methods Retrospective study with propensity score-matched analysis.A total of 2,831 patients had performed RespPCR testing,and finally there were 2,740 negative RespPCR patients and 91 positive RespPCR patients.展开更多
Risk quantification in grade is critical for mine design and planning.Grade uncertainty is assessed using multiple grade realizations,from geostatistical conditional simulations,which are effective to evaluate local o...Risk quantification in grade is critical for mine design and planning.Grade uncertainty is assessed using multiple grade realizations,from geostatistical conditional simulations,which are effective to evaluate local or global uncertainty by honouring spatial correlation structures.The sequential Gaussian conditional simulation was used to assess uncertainty of grade estimates and illustrate simulated models in Sivas gold deposit,Turkey.In situ variability and risk quantification of the gold grade were assessed by probabilistic approach based on the sequential Gaussian simulations to yield a series of conditional maps characterized by equally probable spatial distribution of the gold grade for the study area.The simulation results were validated by a number of tests such as descriptive statistics,histogram,variogram and contour map reproductions.The case study demonstrates the efficiency of the method in assessing risk associated with geological and engineering variable such as the gold grade variability and distribution.The simulated models can be incorporated into exploration,exploitation and scheduling of the gold deposit.展开更多
文摘The wheel brake system safety is a complex problem which refers to its technical state, operating environment, human factors, etc., in aircraft landing taxiing process. Usually, professors consider system safety with traditional probability techniques based on the linear chain of events. However, it could not comprehensively analyze system safety problems, especially in operating environment, interaction of subsystems, and human factors. Thus,we consider system safety as a control problem based on the system-theoretic accident model, the processes(STAMP) model and the system theoretic process analysis(STPA) technique to compensate the deficiency of traditional techniques. Meanwhile,system safety simulation is considered as system control simulation, and Monte Carlo methods are used which consider the range of uncertain parameters and operation deviation to quantitatively study system safety influence factors in control simulation. Firstly,we construct the STAMP model and STPA feedback control loop of the wheel brake system based on the system functional requirement. Then four unsafe control actions are identified, and causes of them are analyzed. Finally, we construct the Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze different scenarios under disturbance. The results provide a basis for choosing corresponding process model variables in constructing the context table and show that appropriate brake strategies could prevent hazards in aircraft landing taxiing.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(61174156 61273189+5 种基金 61174035 61374179 U1435218 6140340171401168)the Army Equipment Research Foundation(012016012600B12507)
文摘Basing on discrete event simulation, a reliability simulation algorithm of the phased-mission system with multiple states is put forth. Firstly, the concepts and main characters of phasedmission system are discussed, and an active and standby redundancy (AS) tree structure method to describe the system structure of each mission phase is brought forward. Secondly, the behavior of the phased-mission system with multiple states is discussed with the theory of state chart. Thirdly, basing on the discrete event simulation concept, a simulation algorithm to estimate reliability parameters of the phased-mission system with multiple states is explored. Finally, an example is introduced and analyzed, and the analysis result verifies the algorithms. The simulation algorithm is practical and versatile, for it can model complex behavior of phased-mission system flexibly, and more reliability parameters to understand system operation can be attained.
文摘In this paper, a mathematical model of real-time simulation is given, and the problem of convergence on real-time Runge-Kutta algorithms is analysed. At last a theorem on the relation between the order of compensation and the convergent order of real-time algorithm is proved.
基金Project(51321065)supported by the Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2013CB035904)supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)Project(51439005)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Accurate 3-D fracture network model for rock mass in dam foundation is of vital importance for stability,grouting and seepage analysis of dam foundation.With the aim of reducing deviation between fracture network model and measured data,a 3-D fracture network dynamic modeling method based on error analysis was proposed.Firstly,errors of four fracture volume density estimation methods(proposed by ODA,KULATILAKE,MAULDON,and SONG)and that of four fracture size estimation methods(proposed by EINSTEIN,SONG and TONON)were respectively compared,and the optimal methods were determined.Additionally,error index representing the deviation between fracture network model and measured data was established with integrated use of fractal dimension and relative absolute error(RAE).On this basis,the downhill simplex method was used to build the dynamic modeling method,which takes the minimum of error index as objective function and dynamically adjusts the fracture density and size parameters to correct the error index.Finally,the 3-D fracture network model could be obtained which meets the requirements.The proposed method was applied for 3-D fractures simulation in Miao Wei hydropower project in China for feasibility verification and the error index reduced from 2.618 to 0.337.
文摘This paper surveys a number of recent advances in the error analysis in the frequency domain for a digital simulation model. It is emphasized to discuss the errors in characteristic roots and transfer funcnon of the digital simulation model, the frequency domain errors of the data transfers between thesimulation submodels, and some compensation methods for the errors. Some of the questions to be answered are also presented.
文摘A logic fault tree of mine spontaneous combustion of sulphide ores was built by the fault tree analysis (FTA) based on a lot of mechanism investigation of sulphide ore spontaneous combustion in more than ten mines and review of a great amount of relevant
基金This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60574077) and 973 National ResearchProgram of China (2002cb312205).
文摘The sources of supply chain enterprise risk from different aspects including material flow, information flow, cash flow and partner relationship is analyzed. Measures for risk reduction have also been summarized from the aspects of risk sharing, information sharing, change of inventory control mode, and supply chain flexibility. Finally, problems in current research on supply chain risk management are pointed out and a discussion on future research trend is presented.
基金Project(NB-2020-JG-07)supported by the Research and Engineering Application of Key Technologies for New Building Industrialization Project of China Northwest Architectural Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.Project(2023-CXTD-29)supported by the Key Scientific and Technological Innovation Team of Shaanxi Province,ChinaProject supported by the K.C.Wong Education Foundation。
文摘The utilization of prefabricated light modular radiant heating system has demonstrated significant increases in heat transfer efficiency and energy conservation capabilities.Within prefabricated building construction,this new heating method presents an opportunity for the development of comprehensive facilities.The parameters for evaluating the effectiveness of such a system are the upper surface layer’s heat flux and temperature.In this paper,thermal resistance analysis calculation based on a simplified model for this unique radiant heating system analysis is presented with the heat transfer mechanism’s evaluation.The results obtained from thermal resistance analysis calculation and numerical simulation indicate that the thermal resistance analysis method is highly accurate with temperature discrepancies ranging from 0.44℃ to−0.44℃ and a heat flux discrepancy of less than 7.54%,which can meet the requirements of practical engineering applications,suggesting a foundation for the prefabricated radiant heating system.
基金Project(51175159)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2013WK3024)supported by the Science andTechnology Planning Program of Hunan Province,ChinaProject(CX2013B146)supported by the Hunan Provincial InnovationFoundation for Postgraduate,China
文摘A technology for unintended lane departure warning was proposed. As crucial information, lane boundaries were detected based on principal component analysis of grayscale distribution in search bars of given number and then each search bar was tracked using Kalman filter between frames. The lane detection performance was evaluated and demonstrated in ways of receiver operating characteristic, dice similarity coefficient and real-time performance. For lane departure detection, a lane departure risk evaluation model based on lasting time and frequency was effectively executed on the ARM-based platform. Experimental results indicate that the algorithm generates satisfactory lane detection results under different traffic and lighting conditions, and the proposed warning mechanism sends effective warning signals, avoiding most false warning.
文摘The Okiep Copper District is the oldest mining district in South Africa with a legacy of more than 150 years of mining.This legacy can be felt in the presence of large tailings dams scattered throughout the area.These tailings have a deleterious impact on the surrounding environment.To use geochemical methods in determining the scale of the impact, pre-mining background levels need to be determined. This is especially difficult in areas for which
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70901004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (YWF-10-01-A12)
文摘A methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios is presented.Its main idea is to let the system model ＂express itself＂ through simulation.This is achieved by having the simulation model driven by an elaborated simulation engine,which：（i） manipulates the generation of branch points,i.e.event occurrence times;（ii） employs a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible branch paths at each branch point.In addition,a backtracking technique,as an extension,is implemented to recover some missed risk scenarios.A widely discussed dynamic reliability example（a holdup tank） is used to aid in the explanation of and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70901004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (YWF-10-01-A12)
文摘This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relevant process parameters and initial conditions) have a significant influence on the evolution of the system.The main idea of the methodology is:(i) making the system model "express itself" through simulation by having the model driven by an elaborated simulation engine;(ii) exploiting uniform design to pick out a small subset of representative design points from the space of relevant dynamic characteristics;(iii) for each selected design point,employing a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible scenario branches at each branch point.A highly dynamic example adapted from the literature(a chemical batch reactor) is studied to test the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 79870030).
文摘The competence set analysis technology can be applied to solve the decision making problems successfully and satisfactorily. This paper mainly focuses on the expanding strategy research and development of the competence set under risk and uncertainty. A systematic expression of the competence set analysis is described, several expanding principles and strategies with regard to several different cases are presented, and their applications in the personnel training program are discussed, some conclusions and suggestions to be developed in a further work are included.
文摘Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza （HPAI） H5N 1 have taken place in 15 countries in Asia, Europe and Africa since 2003, and have caused great economic losses. Much likelihood has been considered as risk factors, of which wild birds are attributed as one of the main factors. This is related to the environmental deterioration in the wetland and expanse of human＇s activities in production. The risk analysis in this paper only focused on the effect of wild birds to HPAI, and confirmed the high risk of wild birds in the spread of AIVs.
文摘Objective To define risk stratification and guide optimal surgical timing of perioperative viral respiratory infection(VRI)in children with cardiac surgery.Methods Retrospective study with propensity score-matched analysis.A total of 2,831 patients had performed RespPCR testing,and finally there were 2,740 negative RespPCR patients and 91 positive RespPCR patients.
文摘Risk quantification in grade is critical for mine design and planning.Grade uncertainty is assessed using multiple grade realizations,from geostatistical conditional simulations,which are effective to evaluate local or global uncertainty by honouring spatial correlation structures.The sequential Gaussian conditional simulation was used to assess uncertainty of grade estimates and illustrate simulated models in Sivas gold deposit,Turkey.In situ variability and risk quantification of the gold grade were assessed by probabilistic approach based on the sequential Gaussian simulations to yield a series of conditional maps characterized by equally probable spatial distribution of the gold grade for the study area.The simulation results were validated by a number of tests such as descriptive statistics,histogram,variogram and contour map reproductions.The case study demonstrates the efficiency of the method in assessing risk associated with geological and engineering variable such as the gold grade variability and distribution.The simulated models can be incorporated into exploration,exploitation and scheduling of the gold deposit.
