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Remaining useful life estimation based on Wiener degradation processes with random failure threshold 被引量:17
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作者 TANG Sheng-jin YU Chuan-qiang +3 位作者 FENG Yong-bao XIE Jian GAO Qin-he SI Xiao-sheng 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2016年第9期2230-2241,共12页
Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the fail... Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the failure threshold has not been studied thoroughly. In this work, by using the truncated normal distribution to model random failure threshold(RFT), an analytical and closed-form RUL distribution based on the current observed data was derived considering the posterior distribution of the drift parameter. Then, the Bayesian method was used to update the prior estimation of failure threshold. To solve the uncertainty of the censored in situ data of failure threshold, the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm is used to calculate the posteriori estimation of failure threshold. Numerical examples show that considering the randomness of the failure threshold and updating the prior information of RFT could improve the accuracy of real time RUL estimation. 展开更多
关键词 condition based maintenance remaining useful life wiener process random failure threshold BAYESIAN EM algorithm
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Remaining useful lifetime prediction for equipment based on nonlinear implicit degradation modeling 被引量:9
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作者 CAI Zhongyi WANG Zezhou +2 位作者 CHEN Yunxiang GUO Jiansheng XIANG Huachun 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2020年第1期194-205,共12页
Nonlinearity and implicitness are common degradation features of the stochastic degradation equipment for prognostics.These features have an uncertain effect on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction of the equipmen... Nonlinearity and implicitness are common degradation features of the stochastic degradation equipment for prognostics.These features have an uncertain effect on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction of the equipment.The current data-driven RUL prediction method has not systematically studied the nonlinear hidden degradation modeling and the RUL distribution function.This paper uses the nonlinear Wiener process to build a dual nonlinear implicit degradation model.Based on the historical measured data of similar equipment,the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is used to estimate the fixed coefficients and the prior distribution of a random coefficient.Using the on-site measured data of the target equipment,the posterior distribution of a random coefficient and actual degradation state are step-by-step updated based on Bayesian inference and the extended Kalman filtering algorithm.The analytical form of the RUL distribution function is derived based on the first hitting time distribution.Combined with the two case studies,the proposed method is verified to have certain advantages over the existing methods in the accuracy of prediction. 展开更多
关键词 remaining useful life(RUL)prediction Wiener process dual nonlinearity measurement error individual difference
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Reliability estimation and remaining useful lifetime prediction for bearing based on proportional hazard model 被引量:7
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作者 王鹭 张利 王学芝 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第12期4625-4633,共9页
As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenanc... As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenance cost and improve the reliability.A prognostic algorithm to assess the reliability and forecast the remaining useful lifetime(RUL) of bearings was proposed,consisting of three phases.Online vibration and temperature signals of bearings in normal state were measured during the manufacturing process and the most useful time-dependent features of vibration signals were extracted based on correlation analysis(feature selection step).Time series analysis based on neural network,as an identification model,was used to predict the features of bearing vibration signals at any horizons(feature prediction step).Furthermore,according to the features,degradation factor was defined.The proportional hazard model was generated to estimate the survival function and forecast the RUL of the bearing(RUL prediction step).The positive results show that the plausibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach can facilitate bearing reliability estimation and RUL prediction. 展开更多
关键词 PROGNOSTICS reliability estimation remaining useful life proportional hazard model
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Remaining useful life prediction for a nonlinear multi-degradation system with public noise 被引量:6
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作者 ZHANG Hanwen CHEN Maoyin ZHOU Donghua 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2018年第2期429-435,共7页
To predict the remaining useful life(RUL) for a class of nonlinear multi-degradation systems, a method is presented. In the real industrial processes, systems are usually composed by several parts or components, and t... To predict the remaining useful life(RUL) for a class of nonlinear multi-degradation systems, a method is presented. In the real industrial processes, systems are usually composed by several parts or components, and these parts or components are working in the same environment, thus the degradations of these parts or components will be influenced by common factors. To describe such a phenomenon in degradations, a multi-degradation model with public noise is proposed. To identify the degradation states and the unknown parameters, an iterative estimation method is proposed by using the Kalman filter and the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm. Next, with known thresholds,the RUL of each degradation can be predicted by using the first hitting time(FHT). In addition, the RUL of the whole system can be obtained by a Copula function. Finally, a practical case is used to demonstrate the method proposed. 展开更多
关键词 remaining useful life(RUL) multi-degradation system public noise nonlinear degradation process
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Remaining useful life prediction based on nonlinear random coefficient regression model with fusing failure time data 被引量:4
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作者 WANG Fengfei TANG Shengjin +3 位作者 SUN Xiaoyan LI Liang YU Chuanqiang SI Xiaosheng 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2023年第1期247-258,共12页
Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a n... Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction. 展开更多
关键词 remaining useful life(RUL)prediction imperfect prior information failure time data NONLINEAR random coefficient regression(RCR)model
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A model to determining the remaining useful life of rotating equipment,based on a new approach to determining state of degradation 被引量:3
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作者 Saeed RAMEZANI Alireza MOINI +1 位作者 Mohamad RIAHI Adolfo Crespo MARQUEZ 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第8期2291-2310,共20页
Condition assessment is one of the most significant techniques of the equipment’s health management.Also,in PHM methodology cycle,which is a developed form of CBM,condition assessment is the most important step of th... Condition assessment is one of the most significant techniques of the equipment’s health management.Also,in PHM methodology cycle,which is a developed form of CBM,condition assessment is the most important step of this cycle.In this paper,the remaining useful life of the equipment is calculated using the combination of sensor information,determination of degradation state and forecasting the proposed health index.The combination of sensor information has been carried out using a new approach to determining the probabilities in the Dempster-Shafer combination rules and fuzzy c-means clustering method.Using the simulation and forecasting of extracted vibration-based health index by autoregressive Markov regime switching(ARMRS)method,final health state is determined and the remaining useful life(RUL)is estimated.In order to evaluate the model,sensor data provided by FEMTO-ST Institute have been used. 展开更多
关键词 remaining useful life(RUL) prognostics and health management(PHM) autoregressive markov regime switching(ARMRS) health index(HI) Dempster-Shafer theory fuzzy c-means(FCM) Kurtosis-entropy DEGRADATION
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Real time remaining useful life prediction based on nonlinear Wiener based degradation processes with measurement errors 被引量:24
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作者 唐圣金 郭晓松 +3 位作者 于传强 周志杰 周召发 张邦成 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第12期4509-4517,共9页
Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degrad... Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction. 展开更多
关键词 remaining useful life Wiener based degradation process measurement error nonlinear maximum likelihood estimation Bayesian method
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Remaining useful life prediction of aero-engines based on random-coefficient regression model considering random failure threshold 被引量:2
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作者 WANG Fengfei TANG Shengjin +3 位作者 LI Liang SUN Xiaoyan YU Chuanqiang SI Xiaosheng 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2023年第2期530-542,共13页
Remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management(PHM)of aero-engines.This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomne... Remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management(PHM)of aero-engines.This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomness of failure threshold.Firstly,a random-coefficient regression(RCR)model is used to model the degradation process of aeroengines.Then,the RUL distribution based on fixed failure threshold is derived.The prior parameters of the degradation model are calculated by a two-step maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)method and the random coefficient is updated in real time under the Bayesian framework.The failure threshold in this paper is defined by the actual degradation process of aeroengines.After that,a expectation maximization(EM)algorithm is proposed to estimate the underlying failure threshold of aeroengines.In addition,the conditional probability is used to satisfy the limitation of failure threshold.Then,based on above results,an analytical expression of RUL distribution of aero-engines based on the RCR model considering random failure threshold(RFT)is derived in a closed-form.Finally,a case study of turbofan engine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the RUL prediction method and the parameters estimation method of failure threshold proposed. 展开更多
关键词 AERO-ENGINE remaining useful life(RUL) random failure threshold(RFT) random-coefficient regression(RCR) parameters estimation
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Degradation data-driven approach for remaining useful life estimation 被引量:2
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作者 Zhiliang Fan Guangbin Liu +2 位作者 Xiaosheng Si Qi Zhang Qinghua Zhang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2013年第1期173-182,共10页
Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is termed as one of the key issues in prognostics and health management (PHM). To achieve RUL estimation for individual equipment, we present a degradation data-driven RUL es... Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is termed as one of the key issues in prognostics and health management (PHM). To achieve RUL estimation for individual equipment, we present a degradation data-driven RUL estimation approach under the collaboration between Bayesian updating and expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Firstly, we utilize an exponential-like degradation model to describe equipment degradation process and update stochastic parameters in the model via Bayesian approach. Based on the Bayesian updating results, both probability distribution of the RUL and its point estimation can be derived. Secondly, based on the monitored degradation data to date, we give a parameter estimation approach for non-stochastic parameters in the degradation model and prove that the obtained estimation is unique and optimal in each iteration. Finally, a numerical example and a practical case study for global positioning system (GPS) receiver are provided to show that the presented approach can model degradation process and achieve RUL estimation effectively and generate better results than a previously reported approach in literature. 展开更多
关键词 RELIABILITY DEGRADATION remaining useful life (RUL) prognostics global positioning system (GPS).
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Life prediction of Ni-Cd battery based on linearWiener process 被引量:16
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作者 DAI Yi CHENG Shu +3 位作者 GAN Qin-jie YU Tian-jian WU Xun BI Fu-liang 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第9期2919-2930,共12页
Predicting the life of Ni-Cd battery for electric multiple units(EMU)can not only improve the safety and reliability of battery,but also reduce the operating costs of EMU.For this reason,a life prediction method based... Predicting the life of Ni-Cd battery for electric multiple units(EMU)can not only improve the safety and reliability of battery,but also reduce the operating costs of EMU.For this reason,a life prediction method based on linear Wiener process is proposed,which is suitable for both monotonic and non-monotonic degraded systems with accurate results.Firstly,a unary linear Wiener degradation model is established,and the parameters of the model are estimated by using the expectation-maximization algorithm(EM).With the established model,the remaining useful life(RUL)of Ni Cd battery and its distribution are obtained.Then based on the unary Wiener process degradation model,the correlation between capacity and energy is analyzed through Copula function to build a binary linear Wiener degradation model,where its parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method.Finally,according to the binary Wiener process model,the battery RUL and its distribution are acquired.The experimental results show that the binary linear Wiener degradation model based on capacity and energy possesses higher accuracy than the unary linear wiener process degradation model. 展开更多
关键词 Ni-Cd battery remaining useful life PREDICTION linearWiener process
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Bayesian framework for satellite rechargeable lithium battery synthesizing bivariate degradation and lifetime data 被引量:10
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作者 ZHANG Yang JIA Xiang GUO Bo 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2018年第2期418-431,共14页
Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability ... Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability analysis by synthesizing multisource data,including bivariate degradation data and lifetime data.Bivariate degradation means that there are two degraded performance characteristics leading to the failure of the system.First,linear Wiener process and Frank Copula function are used to model the dependent degradation processes of the RLB's temperature and discharge voltage.Next,the Bayesian method,in combination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulations,is provided to integrate limited bivariate degradation data with other congeneric RLBs'lifetime data.Then reliability evaluation and RUL prediction are carried out for PHM.A simulation study demonstrates that due to the data fusion,parameter estimations and predicted RUL obtained from our model are more precise than models only using degradation data or ignoring the dependency of different degradation processes.Finally,a practical case study of a satellite RLB verifies the usability of the model. 展开更多
关键词 rechargeable lithium battery Bayesian framework bivariate degradation lifetime data remaining useful life reliability evaluation
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An integrated PHM framework for radar systems through system structural decomposition
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作者 WANG Hong KULEVOME Delanyo Kwame Bensah ZHAO Zi’an 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 2025年第1期95-107,共13页
Implementing an efficient real-time prognostics and health management (PHM) framework improves safety and reduces maintenance costs in complex engineering systems.However, research on PHM framework development for rad... Implementing an efficient real-time prognostics and health management (PHM) framework improves safety and reduces maintenance costs in complex engineering systems.However, research on PHM framework development for radar systems is limited. Furthermore, typical PHM approaches are centralized, do not scale well, and are challenging to implement.This paper proposes an integrated PHM framework for radar systems based on system structural decomposition to enhance reliability and support maintenance actions. The complexity challenge associated with implementing PHM at the system level is addressed by dividing the radar system into subsystems. Subsequently, optimal measurement point selection and sensor placement algorithms are formulated for effective data acquisition. Local modules are developed for each subsystem health assessment, fault diagnosis, and fault prediction without a centralized controller. Maintenance decisions are based on each local module’s fault diagnosis and prediction results. To further improve the effectiveness of the prognostics stage, the feasibility of integrating deep learning (DL) models is also investigated.Several experiments with different degradation patterns are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the framework’s DLbased prognostics model. The proposed framework facilitates transitioning from traditional reactive maintenance practices to a predictive maintenance approach, thereby reducing downtime and improving the overall availability of radar systems. 展开更多
关键词 deep learning prognostics and health management(PHM) radar systems remaining useful life(RUL)
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Health management based on fusion prognostics for avionics systems 被引量:14
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作者 Jiuping Xu Lei Xu 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2011年第3期428-436,共9页
Health management permits the reliability of a system and plays a increasingly important role for achieving efficient system-level maintenance.It has been used for remaining useful life(RUL) prognostics of electroni... Health management permits the reliability of a system and plays a increasingly important role for achieving efficient system-level maintenance.It has been used for remaining useful life(RUL) prognostics of electronics-rich system including avionics.Prognostics and health management(PHM) have become highly desirable to provide avionics with system level health management.This paper presents a health management and fusion prognostic model for avionics system,combining three baseline prognostic approaches that are model-based,data-driven and knowledge-based approaches,and integrates merits as well as eliminates some limitations of each single approach to achieve fusion prognostics and improved prognostic performance of RUL estimation.A fusion model built upon an optimal linear combination forecast model is then utilized to fuse single prognostic algorithm representing the three baseline approaches correspondingly,and the presented case study shows that the fusion prognostics can provide RUL estimation more accurate and more robust than either algorithm alone. 展开更多
关键词 prognostics and health management(PHM) avionics system fusion model prognostic approach remaining useful life(RUL).
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