Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the fail...Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the failure threshold has not been studied thoroughly. In this work, by using the truncated normal distribution to model random failure threshold(RFT), an analytical and closed-form RUL distribution based on the current observed data was derived considering the posterior distribution of the drift parameter. Then, the Bayesian method was used to update the prior estimation of failure threshold. To solve the uncertainty of the censored in situ data of failure threshold, the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm is used to calculate the posteriori estimation of failure threshold. Numerical examples show that considering the randomness of the failure threshold and updating the prior information of RFT could improve the accuracy of real time RUL estimation.展开更多
The value range of the failure threshold will generate an uncertain influence on the prediction results for the remaining useful life(RUL) of equipment. Most of the existing studies on the RUL prediction assume that t...The value range of the failure threshold will generate an uncertain influence on the prediction results for the remaining useful life(RUL) of equipment. Most of the existing studies on the RUL prediction assume that the failure threshold is a fixed value,as they have difficulty in reflecting the random variation of the failure threshold. In connection with the inadequacies of the existing research, an in-depth analysis is carried out to study the effect of the random failure threshold(RFT) on the prediction results for the RUL. First, a nonlinear degradation model with unit-to-unit variability and measurement error is established based on the nonlinear Wiener process. Second, the expectation-maximization(EM) algorithm is used to solve the estimated values of the parameters of the prior degradation model, and the Bayesian method is used to iteratively update the posterior distribution of the random coefficients. Then, the effects of three types of RFT constraint conditions on the prediction results for the RUL are analyzed, and the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL is derived. Finally,the degradation data of aero-turbofan engines are used to verify the correctness and advantages of the method.展开更多
As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenanc...As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenance cost and improve the reliability.A prognostic algorithm to assess the reliability and forecast the remaining useful lifetime(RUL) of bearings was proposed,consisting of three phases.Online vibration and temperature signals of bearings in normal state were measured during the manufacturing process and the most useful time-dependent features of vibration signals were extracted based on correlation analysis(feature selection step).Time series analysis based on neural network,as an identification model,was used to predict the features of bearing vibration signals at any horizons(feature prediction step).Furthermore,according to the features,degradation factor was defined.The proportional hazard model was generated to estimate the survival function and forecast the RUL of the bearing(RUL prediction step).The positive results show that the plausibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach can facilitate bearing reliability estimation and RUL prediction.展开更多
Nonlinearity and implicitness are common degradation features of the stochastic degradation equipment for prognostics.These features have an uncertain effect on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction of the equipmen...Nonlinearity and implicitness are common degradation features of the stochastic degradation equipment for prognostics.These features have an uncertain effect on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction of the equipment.The current data-driven RUL prediction method has not systematically studied the nonlinear hidden degradation modeling and the RUL distribution function.This paper uses the nonlinear Wiener process to build a dual nonlinear implicit degradation model.Based on the historical measured data of similar equipment,the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is used to estimate the fixed coefficients and the prior distribution of a random coefficient.Using the on-site measured data of the target equipment,the posterior distribution of a random coefficient and actual degradation state are step-by-step updated based on Bayesian inference and the extended Kalman filtering algorithm.The analytical form of the RUL distribution function is derived based on the first hitting time distribution.Combined with the two case studies,the proposed method is verified to have certain advantages over the existing methods in the accuracy of prediction.展开更多
To predict the remaining useful life(RUL) for a class of nonlinear multi-degradation systems, a method is presented. In the real industrial processes, systems are usually composed by several parts or components, and t...To predict the remaining useful life(RUL) for a class of nonlinear multi-degradation systems, a method is presented. In the real industrial processes, systems are usually composed by several parts or components, and these parts or components are working in the same environment, thus the degradations of these parts or components will be influenced by common factors. To describe such a phenomenon in degradations, a multi-degradation model with public noise is proposed. To identify the degradation states and the unknown parameters, an iterative estimation method is proposed by using the Kalman filter and the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm. Next, with known thresholds,the RUL of each degradation can be predicted by using the first hitting time(FHT). In addition, the RUL of the whole system can be obtained by a Copula function. Finally, a practical case is used to demonstrate the method proposed.展开更多
Water alternating gas(WAG)injection is a widely used strategy for enhancing oil recovery(EOR)during gas flooding,and the mechanisms,operating parameters,and influencing factors of which have been extensively studied.H...Water alternating gas(WAG)injection is a widely used strategy for enhancing oil recovery(EOR)during gas flooding,and the mechanisms,operating parameters,and influencing factors of which have been extensively studied.However,with respect to its capacity in expanding macroscopic sweep volume under varying heterogeneities,the related results appear inadequate.In this research,three cores with different heterogeneities were used and flooded by the joint water and CO_(2) WAG,then the effects of heterogeneity on oil recovery were determined.More importantly,the cores after CO_(2) WAG injection were investigated using the nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)technique for remaining oil distribution research,which could help us to understand the capacity of CO_(2) WAG in enlarging sweep volume at different heterogeneities.The results show that the presence of heterogeneity may largely weaken the effectiveness of water flooding,the more severe the heterogeneity,the worse the water flooding.The WAG injection of CO_(2) performs well in EOR after water flooding for all the cores with different heterogeneities;however,it could barely form a complete or full sweep throughout the low-permeability region,and un-swept bypassed regions remain.The homogeneous core is better developed by the injection of the joint water and CO_(2) WAG than the heterogeneous and fractured cases.展开更多
For the large number of nonlinear degradation devices existing in a project, the existing methods have not systematically studied the effects of random effect on the remaining lifetime(RL),the accuracy and efficiency ...For the large number of nonlinear degradation devices existing in a project, the existing methods have not systematically studied the effects of random effect on the remaining lifetime(RL),the accuracy and efficiency of the parameters estimation are not high, and the current degradation state of the target device is not accurately estimated. In this paper, a nonlinear Wiener degradation model with random effect is proposed and the corresponding probability density function(PDF) of the first hitting time(FHT)is deduced. A parameter estimation method based on modified expectation maximum(EM) algorithm is proposed to obtain the estimated value of fixed coefficient and the priori value of random coefficient in the model. The posterior value of the random coefficient and the current degradation state of target device are updated synchronously by the state space model(SSM) and the Kalman filter algorithm. The PDF of RL with random effect is deduced. A simulation example is analyzed to verify that the proposed method has the obvious advantage over the existing methods in parameter estimation error and RL prediction accuracy.展开更多
Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a n...Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.展开更多
Water invasion is a common phenomenon in gas reservoirs with active edge-and-bottom aquifers.Due to high reservoir heterogeneity and production parameters,carbonate gas reservoirs feature exploitation obstacles and lo...Water invasion is a common phenomenon in gas reservoirs with active edge-and-bottom aquifers.Due to high reservoir heterogeneity and production parameters,carbonate gas reservoirs feature exploitation obstacles and low recovery factors.In this study,combined core displacement and nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)experiments explored the reservoir gas−water two-phase flow and remaining microscopic gas distribution during water invasion and gas injection.Consequently,for fracture core,the water-phase relative permeability is higher and the co-seepage interval is narrower than that of three pore cores during water invasion,whereas the water-drive recovery efficiency at different invasion rates is the lowest among all cores.Gas injection is beneficial for reducing water saturation and partially restoring the gas-phase relative permeability,especially for fracture core.The remaining gas distribution and the content are related to the core properties.Compared with pore cores,the water invasion rate strongly influences the residual gas distribution in fracture core.The results enhance the understanding of the water invasion mechanism,gas injection to resume production and the remaining gas distribution,so as to improve the recovery factors of carbonate gas reservoirs.展开更多
Condition assessment is one of the most significant techniques of the equipment’s health management.Also,in PHM methodology cycle,which is a developed form of CBM,condition assessment is the most important step of th...Condition assessment is one of the most significant techniques of the equipment’s health management.Also,in PHM methodology cycle,which is a developed form of CBM,condition assessment is the most important step of this cycle.In this paper,the remaining useful life of the equipment is calculated using the combination of sensor information,determination of degradation state and forecasting the proposed health index.The combination of sensor information has been carried out using a new approach to determining the probabilities in the Dempster-Shafer combination rules and fuzzy c-means clustering method.Using the simulation and forecasting of extracted vibration-based health index by autoregressive Markov regime switching(ARMRS)method,final health state is determined and the remaining useful life(RUL)is estimated.In order to evaluate the model,sensor data provided by FEMTO-ST Institute have been used.展开更多
Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degrad...Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.展开更多
Remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management(PHM)of aero-engines.This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomne...Remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management(PHM)of aero-engines.This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomness of failure threshold.Firstly,a random-coefficient regression(RCR)model is used to model the degradation process of aeroengines.Then,the RUL distribution based on fixed failure threshold is derived.The prior parameters of the degradation model are calculated by a two-step maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)method and the random coefficient is updated in real time under the Bayesian framework.The failure threshold in this paper is defined by the actual degradation process of aeroengines.After that,a expectation maximization(EM)algorithm is proposed to estimate the underlying failure threshold of aeroengines.In addition,the conditional probability is used to satisfy the limitation of failure threshold.Then,based on above results,an analytical expression of RUL distribution of aero-engines based on the RCR model considering random failure threshold(RFT)is derived in a closed-form.Finally,a case study of turbofan engine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the RUL prediction method and the parameters estimation method of failure threshold proposed.展开更多
Remaining useful life （RUL） estimation is termed as one of the key issues in prognostics and health management （PHM）. To achieve RUL estimation for individual equipment, we present a degradation data-driven RUL es...Remaining useful life （RUL） estimation is termed as one of the key issues in prognostics and health management （PHM）. To achieve RUL estimation for individual equipment, we present a degradation data-driven RUL estimation approach under the collaboration between Bayesian updating and expectation maximization （EM） algorithm. Firstly, we utilize an exponential-like degradation model to describe equipment degradation process and update stochastic parameters in the model via Bayesian approach. Based on the Bayesian updating results, both probability distribution of the RUL and its point estimation can be derived. Secondly, based on the monitored degradation data to date, we give a parameter estimation approach for non-stochastic parameters in the degradation model and prove that the obtained estimation is unique and optimal in each iteration. Finally, a numerical example and a practical case study for global positioning system （GPS） receiver are provided to show that the presented approach can model degradation process and achieve RUL estimation effectively and generate better results than a previously reported approach in literature.展开更多
As a significant inducement during the development of oil and gas,the role of remaining recoverable reserves is more observable especially in the later phase of development of oilfield.Depended on the production decli...As a significant inducement during the development of oil and gas,the role of remaining recoverable reserves is more observable especially in the later phase of development of oilfield.Depended on the production decline method in petroleum reservoir engineering,a new model of predicting recoverable and remaining recoverable reserves has been展开更多
Implementing an efficient real-time prognostics and health management (PHM) framework improves safety and reduces maintenance costs in complex engineering systems.However, research on PHM framework development for rad...Implementing an efficient real-time prognostics and health management (PHM) framework improves safety and reduces maintenance costs in complex engineering systems.However, research on PHM framework development for radar systems is limited. Furthermore, typical PHM approaches are centralized, do not scale well, and are challenging to implement.This paper proposes an integrated PHM framework for radar systems based on system structural decomposition to enhance reliability and support maintenance actions. The complexity challenge associated with implementing PHM at the system level is addressed by dividing the radar system into subsystems. Subsequently, optimal measurement point selection and sensor placement algorithms are formulated for effective data acquisition. Local modules are developed for each subsystem health assessment, fault diagnosis, and fault prediction without a centralized controller. Maintenance decisions are based on each local module’s fault diagnosis and prediction results. To further improve the effectiveness of the prognostics stage, the feasibility of integrating deep learning (DL) models is also investigated.Several experiments with different degradation patterns are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the framework’s DLbased prognostics model. The proposed framework facilitates transitioning from traditional reactive maintenance practices to a predictive maintenance approach, thereby reducing downtime and improving the overall availability of radar systems.展开更多
Predicting the life of Ni-Cd battery for electric multiple units(EMU)can not only improve the safety and reliability of battery,but also reduce the operating costs of EMU.For this reason,a life prediction method based...Predicting the life of Ni-Cd battery for electric multiple units(EMU)can not only improve the safety and reliability of battery,but also reduce the operating costs of EMU.For this reason,a life prediction method based on linear Wiener process is proposed,which is suitable for both monotonic and non-monotonic degraded systems with accurate results.Firstly,a unary linear Wiener degradation model is established,and the parameters of the model are estimated by using the expectation-maximization algorithm(EM).With the established model,the remaining useful life(RUL)of Ni Cd battery and its distribution are obtained.Then based on the unary Wiener process degradation model,the correlation between capacity and energy is analyzed through Copula function to build a binary linear Wiener degradation model,where its parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method.Finally,according to the binary Wiener process model,the battery RUL and its distribution are acquired.The experimental results show that the binary linear Wiener degradation model based on capacity and energy possesses higher accuracy than the unary linear wiener process degradation model.展开更多
Health management permits the reliability of a system and plays a increasingly important role for achieving efficient system-level maintenance.It has been used for remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics of electroni...Health management permits the reliability of a system and plays a increasingly important role for achieving efficient system-level maintenance.It has been used for remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics of electronics-rich system including avionics.Prognostics and health management（PHM） have become highly desirable to provide avionics with system level health management.This paper presents a health management and fusion prognostic model for avionics system,combining three baseline prognostic approaches that are model-based,data-driven and knowledge-based approaches,and integrates merits as well as eliminates some limitations of each single approach to achieve fusion prognostics and improved prognostic performance of RUL estimation.A fusion model built upon an optimal linear combination forecast model is then utilized to fuse single prognostic algorithm representing the three baseline approaches correspondingly,and the presented case study shows that the fusion prognostics can provide RUL estimation more accurate and more robust than either algorithm alone.展开更多
Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability ...Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability analysis by synthesizing multisource data,including bivariate degradation data and lifetime data.Bivariate degradation means that there are two degraded performance characteristics leading to the failure of the system.First,linear Wiener process and Frank Copula function are used to model the dependent degradation processes of the RLB's temperature and discharge voltage.Next,the Bayesian method,in combination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulations,is provided to integrate limited bivariate degradation data with other congeneric RLBs'lifetime data.Then reliability evaluation and RUL prediction are carried out for PHM.A simulation study demonstrates that due to the data fusion,parameter estimations and predicted RUL obtained from our model are more precise than models only using degradation data or ignoring the dependency of different degradation processes.Finally,a practical case study of a satellite RLB verifies the usability of the model.展开更多
Portland cement(PC) containing high-volume fly ash(HVFA) is usually used to obtain economical and more sustainable merits, but these merits suffer from dramatically low compressive strength especially at early ages. I...Portland cement(PC) containing high-volume fly ash(HVFA) is usually used to obtain economical and more sustainable merits, but these merits suffer from dramatically low compressive strength especially at early ages. In this work, the possibility of using micro-size metakaolin(MSK) particles to improve the compressive strength of HVFA paste before and after subjecting to high temperatures was studied. To produce HVFA paste, cement was partially substituted with 70% fly ash(FA), by weight. After that, FA was partially substituted with MSK at ratios fluctuating from 5% to 20% with an interval of 5%, by weight. The effect of MSK on the workability of HVFA mixture was measured. After curing, specimens were subjected to different high temperatures fluctuating from 400 to 1000 ℃ with an interval of 200 ℃ for 2 h. The results were analyzed by different techniques named X-ray diffraction(XRD), thermogravimetry(TGA) and scanning electron microscopy(SEM). The results showed that the incorporation of MSK particles into HVFA mixture exhibited a negative effect on the workability and a positive effect on the compressive strength before and after firing.展开更多
The demand for high strength fiber in rawcotton has increased because of the widespreaduse of high speed spinning technology in theyarn and textile industry.Improvement ofcotton fiber quality through
基金Projects(51475462,61174030,61473094,61374126)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the failure threshold has not been studied thoroughly. In this work, by using the truncated normal distribution to model random failure threshold(RFT), an analytical and closed-form RUL distribution based on the current observed data was derived considering the posterior distribution of the drift parameter. Then, the Bayesian method was used to update the prior estimation of failure threshold. To solve the uncertainty of the censored in situ data of failure threshold, the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm is used to calculate the posteriori estimation of failure threshold. Numerical examples show that considering the randomness of the failure threshold and updating the prior information of RFT could improve the accuracy of real time RUL estimation.
基金supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2017M623415)。
文摘The value range of the failure threshold will generate an uncertain influence on the prediction results for the remaining useful life(RUL) of equipment. Most of the existing studies on the RUL prediction assume that the failure threshold is a fixed value,as they have difficulty in reflecting the random variation of the failure threshold. In connection with the inadequacies of the existing research, an in-depth analysis is carried out to study the effect of the random failure threshold(RFT) on the prediction results for the RUL. First, a nonlinear degradation model with unit-to-unit variability and measurement error is established based on the nonlinear Wiener process. Second, the expectation-maximization(EM) algorithm is used to solve the estimated values of the parameters of the prior degradation model, and the Bayesian method is used to iteratively update the posterior distribution of the random coefficients. Then, the effects of three types of RFT constraint conditions on the prediction results for the RUL are analyzed, and the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL is derived. Finally,the degradation data of aero-turbofan engines are used to verify the correctness and advantages of the method.
基金Project(61174115)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(L2013001)supported by Scientific Research Program of Liaoning Provincial Education Department,China
文摘As the central component of rotating machine,the performance reliability assessment and remaining useful lifetime prediction of bearing are of crucial importance in condition-based maintenance to reduce the maintenance cost and improve the reliability.A prognostic algorithm to assess the reliability and forecast the remaining useful lifetime(RUL) of bearings was proposed,consisting of three phases.Online vibration and temperature signals of bearings in normal state were measured during the manufacturing process and the most useful time-dependent features of vibration signals were extracted based on correlation analysis(feature selection step).Time series analysis based on neural network,as an identification model,was used to predict the features of bearing vibration signals at any horizons(feature prediction step).Furthermore,according to the features,degradation factor was defined.The proportional hazard model was generated to estimate the survival function and forecast the RUL of the bearing(RUL prediction step).The positive results show that the plausibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach can facilitate bearing reliability estimation and RUL prediction.
基金supported by the National Defense Foundation of China(7160118371901216)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2017M623415)
文摘Nonlinearity and implicitness are common degradation features of the stochastic degradation equipment for prognostics.These features have an uncertain effect on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction of the equipment.The current data-driven RUL prediction method has not systematically studied the nonlinear hidden degradation modeling and the RUL distribution function.This paper uses the nonlinear Wiener process to build a dual nonlinear implicit degradation model.Based on the historical measured data of similar equipment,the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm is used to estimate the fixed coefficients and the prior distribution of a random coefficient.Using the on-site measured data of the target equipment,the posterior distribution of a random coefficient and actual degradation state are step-by-step updated based on Bayesian inference and the extended Kalman filtering algorithm.The analytical form of the RUL distribution function is derived based on the first hitting time distribution.Combined with the two case studies,the proposed method is verified to have certain advantages over the existing methods in the accuracy of prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(6129032461473164+1 种基金61490701)the Research Fund for the Taishan Scholar Project of Shandong Province of China(LZB2015-162)
文摘To predict the remaining useful life(RUL) for a class of nonlinear multi-degradation systems, a method is presented. In the real industrial processes, systems are usually composed by several parts or components, and these parts or components are working in the same environment, thus the degradations of these parts or components will be influenced by common factors. To describe such a phenomenon in degradations, a multi-degradation model with public noise is proposed. To identify the degradation states and the unknown parameters, an iterative estimation method is proposed by using the Kalman filter and the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm. Next, with known thresholds,the RUL of each degradation can be predicted by using the first hitting time(FHT). In addition, the RUL of the whole system can be obtained by a Copula function. Finally, a practical case is used to demonstrate the method proposed.
基金Project(KFJJ-TZ-2019-3)supported by the Open Project of Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Advanced Stimulation Technology for Oil&Gas Reservoirs,ChinaProjects(51504275,51974344)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China。
文摘Water alternating gas(WAG)injection is a widely used strategy for enhancing oil recovery(EOR)during gas flooding,and the mechanisms,operating parameters,and influencing factors of which have been extensively studied.However,with respect to its capacity in expanding macroscopic sweep volume under varying heterogeneities,the related results appear inadequate.In this research,three cores with different heterogeneities were used and flooded by the joint water and CO_(2) WAG,then the effects of heterogeneity on oil recovery were determined.More importantly,the cores after CO_(2) WAG injection were investigated using the nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)technique for remaining oil distribution research,which could help us to understand the capacity of CO_(2) WAG in enlarging sweep volume at different heterogeneities.The results show that the presence of heterogeneity may largely weaken the effectiveness of water flooding,the more severe the heterogeneity,the worse the water flooding.The WAG injection of CO_(2) performs well in EOR after water flooding for all the cores with different heterogeneities;however,it could barely form a complete or full sweep throughout the low-permeability region,and un-swept bypassed regions remain.The homogeneous core is better developed by the injection of the joint water and CO_(2) WAG than the heterogeneous and fractured cases.
基金supported by the National Defense Foundation of China(71601183)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2017M623415)
文摘For the large number of nonlinear degradation devices existing in a project, the existing methods have not systematically studied the effects of random effect on the remaining lifetime(RL),the accuracy and efficiency of the parameters estimation are not high, and the current degradation state of the target device is not accurately estimated. In this paper, a nonlinear Wiener degradation model with random effect is proposed and the corresponding probability density function(PDF) of the first hitting time(FHT)is deduced. A parameter estimation method based on modified expectation maximum(EM) algorithm is proposed to obtain the estimated value of fixed coefficient and the priori value of random coefficient in the model. The posterior value of the random coefficient and the current degradation state of target device are updated synchronously by the state space model(SSM) and the Kalman filter algorithm. The PDF of RL with random effect is deduced. A simulation example is analyzed to verify that the proposed method has the obvious advantage over the existing methods in parameter estimation error and RL prediction accuracy.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (61703410,61873175,62073336,61873273,61773386,61922089)。
文摘Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.
基金Project(2016ZX05017)supported by the China National Science and Technology Major Project
文摘Water invasion is a common phenomenon in gas reservoirs with active edge-and-bottom aquifers.Due to high reservoir heterogeneity and production parameters,carbonate gas reservoirs feature exploitation obstacles and low recovery factors.In this study,combined core displacement and nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)experiments explored the reservoir gas−water two-phase flow and remaining microscopic gas distribution during water invasion and gas injection.Consequently,for fracture core,the water-phase relative permeability is higher and the co-seepage interval is narrower than that of three pore cores during water invasion,whereas the water-drive recovery efficiency at different invasion rates is the lowest among all cores.Gas injection is beneficial for reducing water saturation and partially restoring the gas-phase relative permeability,especially for fracture core.The remaining gas distribution and the content are related to the core properties.Compared with pore cores,the water invasion rate strongly influences the residual gas distribution in fracture core.The results enhance the understanding of the water invasion mechanism,gas injection to resume production and the remaining gas distribution,so as to improve the recovery factors of carbonate gas reservoirs.
文摘Condition assessment is one of the most significant techniques of the equipment’s health management.Also,in PHM methodology cycle,which is a developed form of CBM,condition assessment is the most important step of this cycle.In this paper,the remaining useful life of the equipment is calculated using the combination of sensor information,determination of degradation state and forecasting the proposed health index.The combination of sensor information has been carried out using a new approach to determining the probabilities in the Dempster-Shafer combination rules and fuzzy c-means clustering method.Using the simulation and forecasting of extracted vibration-based health index by autoregressive Markov regime switching(ARMRS)method,final health state is determined and the remaining useful life(RUL)is estimated.In order to evaluate the model,sensor data provided by FEMTO-ST Institute have been used.
基金Projects(51475462,61374138,61370031)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61703410,61873175,62073336,61873273,61773386,61922-089)the Basic Research Plan of Shaanxi Natural Science Foundation of China(2022JM-376).
文摘Remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management(PHM)of aero-engines.This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomness of failure threshold.Firstly,a random-coefficient regression(RCR)model is used to model the degradation process of aeroengines.Then,the RUL distribution based on fixed failure threshold is derived.The prior parameters of the degradation model are calculated by a two-step maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)method and the random coefficient is updated in real time under the Bayesian framework.The failure threshold in this paper is defined by the actual degradation process of aeroengines.After that,a expectation maximization(EM)algorithm is proposed to estimate the underlying failure threshold of aeroengines.In addition,the conditional probability is used to satisfy the limitation of failure threshold.Then,based on above results,an analytical expression of RUL distribution of aero-engines based on the RCR model considering random failure threshold(RFT)is derived in a closed-form.Finally,a case study of turbofan engine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the RUL prediction method and the parameters estimation method of failure threshold proposed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(6117403061104223+1 种基金61174113)the Natural Science Fund of Guangdong Province(S2011020002735)
文摘Remaining useful life （RUL） estimation is termed as one of the key issues in prognostics and health management （PHM）. To achieve RUL estimation for individual equipment, we present a degradation data-driven RUL estimation approach under the collaboration between Bayesian updating and expectation maximization （EM） algorithm. Firstly, we utilize an exponential-like degradation model to describe equipment degradation process and update stochastic parameters in the model via Bayesian approach. Based on the Bayesian updating results, both probability distribution of the RUL and its point estimation can be derived. Secondly, based on the monitored degradation data to date, we give a parameter estimation approach for non-stochastic parameters in the degradation model and prove that the obtained estimation is unique and optimal in each iteration. Finally, a numerical example and a practical case study for global positioning system （GPS） receiver are provided to show that the presented approach can model degradation process and achieve RUL estimation effectively and generate better results than a previously reported approach in literature.
文摘As a significant inducement during the development of oil and gas,the role of remaining recoverable reserves is more observable especially in the later phase of development of oilfield.Depended on the production decline method in petroleum reservoir engineering,a new model of predicting recoverable and remaining recoverable reserves has been
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (42027805)。
文摘Implementing an efficient real-time prognostics and health management (PHM) framework improves safety and reduces maintenance costs in complex engineering systems.However, research on PHM framework development for radar systems is limited. Furthermore, typical PHM approaches are centralized, do not scale well, and are challenging to implement.This paper proposes an integrated PHM framework for radar systems based on system structural decomposition to enhance reliability and support maintenance actions. The complexity challenge associated with implementing PHM at the system level is addressed by dividing the radar system into subsystems. Subsequently, optimal measurement point selection and sensor placement algorithms are formulated for effective data acquisition. Local modules are developed for each subsystem health assessment, fault diagnosis, and fault prediction without a centralized controller. Maintenance decisions are based on each local module’s fault diagnosis and prediction results. To further improve the effectiveness of the prognostics stage, the feasibility of integrating deep learning (DL) models is also investigated.Several experiments with different degradation patterns are performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the framework’s DLbased prognostics model. The proposed framework facilitates transitioning from traditional reactive maintenance practices to a predictive maintenance approach, thereby reducing downtime and improving the overall availability of radar systems.
基金Project(2017 YFB 1200801-12)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China。
文摘Predicting the life of Ni-Cd battery for electric multiple units(EMU)can not only improve the safety and reliability of battery,but also reduce the operating costs of EMU.For this reason,a life prediction method based on linear Wiener process is proposed,which is suitable for both monotonic and non-monotonic degraded systems with accurate results.Firstly,a unary linear Wiener degradation model is established,and the parameters of the model are estimated by using the expectation-maximization algorithm(EM).With the established model,the remaining useful life(RUL)of Ni Cd battery and its distribution are obtained.Then based on the unary Wiener process degradation model,the correlation between capacity and energy is analyzed through Copula function to build a binary linear Wiener degradation model,where its parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method.Finally,according to the binary Wiener process model,the battery RUL and its distribution are acquired.The experimental results show that the binary linear Wiener degradation model based on capacity and energy possesses higher accuracy than the unary linear wiener process degradation model.
文摘Health management permits the reliability of a system and plays a increasingly important role for achieving efficient system-level maintenance.It has been used for remaining useful life（RUL） prognostics of electronics-rich system including avionics.Prognostics and health management（PHM） have become highly desirable to provide avionics with system level health management.This paper presents a health management and fusion prognostic model for avionics system,combining three baseline prognostic approaches that are model-based,data-driven and knowledge-based approaches,and integrates merits as well as eliminates some limitations of each single approach to achieve fusion prognostics and improved prognostic performance of RUL estimation.A fusion model built upon an optimal linear combination forecast model is then utilized to fuse single prognostic algorithm representing the three baseline approaches correspondingly,and the presented case study shows that the fusion prognostics can provide RUL estimation more accurate and more robust than either algorithm alone.
基金Project(71371182) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability analysis by synthesizing multisource data,including bivariate degradation data and lifetime data.Bivariate degradation means that there are two degraded performance characteristics leading to the failure of the system.First,linear Wiener process and Frank Copula function are used to model the dependent degradation processes of the RLB's temperature and discharge voltage.Next,the Bayesian method,in combination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulations,is provided to integrate limited bivariate degradation data with other congeneric RLBs'lifetime data.Then reliability evaluation and RUL prediction are carried out for PHM.A simulation study demonstrates that due to the data fusion,parameter estimations and predicted RUL obtained from our model are more precise than models only using degradation data or ignoring the dependency of different degradation processes.Finally,a practical case study of a satellite RLB verifies the usability of the model.
文摘Portland cement(PC) containing high-volume fly ash(HVFA) is usually used to obtain economical and more sustainable merits, but these merits suffer from dramatically low compressive strength especially at early ages. In this work, the possibility of using micro-size metakaolin(MSK) particles to improve the compressive strength of HVFA paste before and after subjecting to high temperatures was studied. To produce HVFA paste, cement was partially substituted with 70% fly ash(FA), by weight. After that, FA was partially substituted with MSK at ratios fluctuating from 5% to 20% with an interval of 5%, by weight. The effect of MSK on the workability of HVFA mixture was measured. After curing, specimens were subjected to different high temperatures fluctuating from 400 to 1000 ℃ with an interval of 200 ℃ for 2 h. The results were analyzed by different techniques named X-ray diffraction(XRD), thermogravimetry(TGA) and scanning electron microscopy(SEM). The results showed that the incorporation of MSK particles into HVFA mixture exhibited a negative effect on the workability and a positive effect on the compressive strength before and after firing.
文摘The demand for high strength fiber in rawcotton has increased because of the widespreaduse of high speed spinning technology in theyarn and textile industry.Improvement ofcotton fiber quality through
