The interception probability of a single missile is the basis for combat plan design and weapon performance evaluation,while its influencing factors are complex and mutually coupled.Existing calculation methods have v...The interception probability of a single missile is the basis for combat plan design and weapon performance evaluation,while its influencing factors are complex and mutually coupled.Existing calculation methods have very limited analysis of the influence mechanism of influencing factors,and none of them has analyzed the influence of the guidance law.This paper considers the influencing factors of both the interceptor and the target more comprehensively.Interceptor parameters include speed,guidance law,guidance error,fuze error,and fragment killing ability,while target performance includes speed,maneuverability,and vulnerability.In this paper,an interception model is established,Monte Carlo simulation is carried out,and the influence mechanism of each factor is analyzed based on the model and simulation results.Finally,this paper proposes a classification-regression neural network to quickly estimate the interception probability based on the value of influencing factors.The proposed method reduces the interference of invalid interception data to valid data,so its prediction accuracy is significantly better than that of pure regression neural networks.展开更多
The appropriate fuze-warhead coordination method is important to improve the damage efficiency of air defense missiles against aircraft targets. In this paper, an adaptive fuze-warhead coordination method based on the...The appropriate fuze-warhead coordination method is important to improve the damage efficiency of air defense missiles against aircraft targets. In this paper, an adaptive fuze-warhead coordination method based on the Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network(BP-ANN) is proposed, which uses the parameters of missile-target intersection to adaptively calculate the initiation delay. The damage probabilities at different radial locations along the same shot line of a given intersection situation are calculated, so as to determine the optimal detonation position. On this basis, the BP-ANN model is used to describe the complex and highly nonlinear relationship between different intersection parameters and the corresponding optimal detonating point position. In the actual terminal engagement process, the fuze initiation delay is quickly determined by the constructed BP-ANN model combined with the missiletarget intersection parameters. The method is validated in the case of the single-shot damage probability evaluation. Comparing with other fuze-warhead coordination methods, the proposed method can produce higher single-shot damage probability under various intersection conditions, while the fuzewarhead coordination effect is less influenced by the location of the aim point.展开更多
基金supported by the Foundation Strengthening Program Technology Field Foundation(2020-JCJQ-JJ-132)。
文摘The interception probability of a single missile is the basis for combat plan design and weapon performance evaluation,while its influencing factors are complex and mutually coupled.Existing calculation methods have very limited analysis of the influence mechanism of influencing factors,and none of them has analyzed the influence of the guidance law.This paper considers the influencing factors of both the interceptor and the target more comprehensively.Interceptor parameters include speed,guidance law,guidance error,fuze error,and fragment killing ability,while target performance includes speed,maneuverability,and vulnerability.In this paper,an interception model is established,Monte Carlo simulation is carried out,and the influence mechanism of each factor is analyzed based on the model and simulation results.Finally,this paper proposes a classification-regression neural network to quickly estimate the interception probability based on the value of influencing factors.The proposed method reduces the interference of invalid interception data to valid data,so its prediction accuracy is significantly better than that of pure regression neural networks.
文摘The appropriate fuze-warhead coordination method is important to improve the damage efficiency of air defense missiles against aircraft targets. In this paper, an adaptive fuze-warhead coordination method based on the Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network(BP-ANN) is proposed, which uses the parameters of missile-target intersection to adaptively calculate the initiation delay. The damage probabilities at different radial locations along the same shot line of a given intersection situation are calculated, so as to determine the optimal detonation position. On this basis, the BP-ANN model is used to describe the complex and highly nonlinear relationship between different intersection parameters and the corresponding optimal detonating point position. In the actual terminal engagement process, the fuze initiation delay is quickly determined by the constructed BP-ANN model combined with the missiletarget intersection parameters. The method is validated in the case of the single-shot damage probability evaluation. Comparing with other fuze-warhead coordination methods, the proposed method can produce higher single-shot damage probability under various intersection conditions, while the fuzewarhead coordination effect is less influenced by the location of the aim point.
