The task of modeling and analyzing intercepted multifunction radars(MFRs)pulse trains is vital for cognitive electronic reconnaissance.Existing methodologies predominantly rely on prior information or heavily constrai...The task of modeling and analyzing intercepted multifunction radars(MFRs)pulse trains is vital for cognitive electronic reconnaissance.Existing methodologies predominantly rely on prior information or heavily constrained models,posing challenges for non-cooperative applications.This paper introduces a novel approach to model MFRs using a Bayesian network,where the conditional probability density function is approximated by an autoregressive kernel mixture network(ARKMN).Utilizing the estimated probability density function,a dynamic programming algorithm is proposed for denoising and detecting change points in the intercepted MFRs pulse trains.Simulation results affirm the proposed method's efficacy in modeling MFRs,outperforming the state-of-the-art in pulse train denoising and change point detection.展开更多
In order to solve the problem of uncertainty and fuzzy information in the process of weapon equipment system selec-tion,a multi-attribute decision-making(MADM)method based on probabilistic hesitant fuzzy set(PHFS)is p...In order to solve the problem of uncertainty and fuzzy information in the process of weapon equipment system selec-tion,a multi-attribute decision-making(MADM)method based on probabilistic hesitant fuzzy set(PHFS)is proposed.Firstly,we introduce the concept of probability and fuzzy entropy to mea-sure the ambiguity,hesitation and uncertainty of probabilistic hesitant fuzzy elements(PHFEs).Sequentially,the expert trust network is constructed,and the importance of each expert in the network can be obtained by calculating the cumulative trust value under multiple trust propagation paths,so as to obtain the expert weight vector.Finally,we put forward an MADM method combining the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy entropy and grey rela-tion analysis(GRA)model,and an illustrative case is employed to prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the method when solving the weapon system selection decision-making problem.展开更多
Experimental study is performed on the probabilistic models for the long fatigue crack growth rates (da/dN) of LZ50 axle steel. An equation for crack growth rate was derived to consider the trend of stress intensity f...Experimental study is performed on the probabilistic models for the long fatigue crack growth rates (da/dN) of LZ50 axle steel. An equation for crack growth rate was derived to consider the trend of stress intensity factor range going down to the threshold and the average stress effect. The probabilistic models were presented on the equation. They consist of the probabilistic da/dN-ΔK relations, the confidence-based da/dN-ΔK relations, and the probabilistic- and confidence-based da/dN-ΔK relations. Efforts were made respectively to characterize the effects of probabilistic assessments due to the scattering regularity of test data, the number of sampling, and both of them. These relations can provide wide selections for practice. Analysis on the test data of LZ50 steel indicates that the present models are available and feasible.展开更多
Joint probabilistic data association is an effective method for tracking multiple targets in clutter, but only the target kinematic information is used in measure-to-track association. If the kinematic likelihoods are...Joint probabilistic data association is an effective method for tracking multiple targets in clutter, but only the target kinematic information is used in measure-to-track association. If the kinematic likelihoods are similar for different closely spaced targets, there is ambiguity in using the kinematic information alone; the correct association probability will decrease in conventional joint probabilistic data association algorithm and track coalescence will occur easily. A modified algorithm of joint probabilistic data association with classification-aided is presented, which avoids track coalescence when tracking multiple neighboring targets. Firstly, an identification matrix is defined, which is used to simplify validation matrix to decrease computational complexity. Then, target class information is integrated into the data association process. Performance comparisons with and without the use of class information in JPDA are presented on multiple closely spaced maneuvering targets tracking problem. Simulation results quantify the benefits of classification-aided JPDA for improved multiple targets tracking, especially in the presence of association uncertainty in the kinematic measurement and target maneuvering. Simulation results indicate that the algorithm is valid.展开更多
Probabilistic analysis is a rational approach for engineering design because it provides more insight than traditional deterministic analysis. Probabilistic evaluation on seismic stability of three dimensional (3D) sl...Probabilistic analysis is a rational approach for engineering design because it provides more insight than traditional deterministic analysis. Probabilistic evaluation on seismic stability of three dimensional (3D) slopes is studied in this paper. The slope safety factor is computed by combining the kinematic approach of limit analysis using a three-dimensional rotational failure mechanism with the pseudo-dynamic approach. The variability of input parameters, including six pseudo-dynamic parameters and two soil shear strength parameters, are taken into account by means of Monte-Carlo Simulations (MCS) method. The influences of pseudo-dynamic input variables on the computed failure probabilities are investigated and discussed. It is shown that the obtained failure probabilities increase with the pseudo-dynamic input variables and the pseudo-dynamic approach gives more conservative failure probability estimates compared with the pseudo-static approach.展开更多
For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was...For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was established based on quadratic polynomial function by taking extremum response surface model as the sub-model of multi-response surface method.The dynamic probabilistic analysis of an aeroengine turbine blisk with two components,and their reliability of deformation and stress failures was obtained,based on thermal-structural coupling technique,by considering the nonlinearity of material parameters and the transients of gas flow,gas temperature and rotational speed.The results show that the comprehensive reliability of structure is 0.9904 when the allowable deformations and stresses of blade and disk are 4.78×10–3 m and 1.41×109 Pa,and 1.64×10–3 m and 1.04×109 Pa,respectively.Besides,gas temperature and rotating speed severely influence the comprehensive reliability of system.Through the comparison of methods,it is shown that the MERSM holds higher computational precision and speed in the probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk,and MERSM computational precision satisfies the requirement of engineering design.The efforts of this study address the difficulties on transients and multiple models coupling for the dynamic probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes.展开更多
The traditional voltage stability analysis method is mostly based on the deterministic mode1.and ignores the uncertainties of bus loads,power supplies,changes in network configuration and so on.However,the great expan...The traditional voltage stability analysis method is mostly based on the deterministic mode1.and ignores the uncertainties of bus loads,power supplies,changes in network configuration and so on.However,the great expansion of renewable power generations such as wind and solar energy in a power system has increased their uncertainty,and仃aditional techniques are limited in capturing their variable behavior.This leads to greater needs of new techniques and methodologies to properly quan tify the voltage stability of power systems.展开更多
In order to describe and control the stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies used in the aeroengine, a highly efficient and precise method of probabilistic analysis which is called extremum...In order to describe and control the stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies used in the aeroengine, a highly efficient and precise method of probabilistic analysis which is called extremum response surface method(ERSM) is produced based on the previous deterministic analysis results with the finite element model(FEM). In this work, many key nonlinear factors, such as the dynamic feature of the temperature load, the centrifugal force and the boundary conditions, are taken into consideration for the model. The changing patterns with time of bladed disk assemblies about stress distribution and total deformation are obtained during the deterministic analysis, and at the same time, the largest deformation and stress nodes of bladed disk assemblies are found and taken as input target of probabilistic analysis in a scientific and reasonable way. Not only their reliability, historical sample, extreme response surface(ERS) and the cumulative probability distribution function but also their sensitivity and effect probability are obtained. Main factors affecting stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies are investigated through the sensitivity analysis of the model. Finally, compared with the response surface method(RSM) and the Monte Carlo simulation(MCS), the results show that this new approach is effective.展开更多
As a generalization of fuzzy set,hesitant probabilistic fuzzy set and pythagorean triangular fuzzy set have their own unique advantages in describing decision information.As modern socioeconomic decision-making proble...As a generalization of fuzzy set,hesitant probabilistic fuzzy set and pythagorean triangular fuzzy set have their own unique advantages in describing decision information.As modern socioeconomic decision-making problems are becoming more and more complex,it also becomes more and more difficult to appropriately depict decision makers’cognitive information in decision-making process.In order to describe the decision information more comprehensively,we define a pythagorean probabilistic hesitant triangular fuzzy set(PPHTFS)by combining the pythagorean triangular fuzzy set and the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy set.Firstly,the basic operation and scoring function of the pythagorean probabilistic hesitant triangular fuzzy element(PPHTFE)are proposed,and the comparison rule of two PPHTFEs is given.Then,some pythagorean probabilistic hesitant triangular fuzzy aggregation operators are developed,and their properties are also studied.Finally,a multi-attribute decision-making(MADM)model is constructed based on the proposed operators under the pythagorean probabilistic hesitant triangular fuzzy information,and an illustration example is given to demonstrate the practicability and validity of the proposed decision-making method.展开更多
A method to estimate the probabilistic density function （PDF） of shear strength parameters was proposed. The second Chebyshev orthogonal polynomial（SCOP） combined with sample moments （the origin moments） was use...A method to estimate the probabilistic density function （PDF） of shear strength parameters was proposed. The second Chebyshev orthogonal polynomial（SCOP） combined with sample moments （the origin moments） was used to approximate the PDF of parameters. X^2 test was adopted to verify the availability of the method. It is distribution-free because no classical theoretical distributions were assumed in advance and the inference result provides a universal form of probability density curves. Six most commonly-used theoretical distributions named normal, lognormal, extreme value Ⅰ , gama, beta and Weibull distributions were used to verify SCOP method. An example from the observed data of cohesion c of a kind of silt clay was presented for illustrative purpose. The results show that the acceptance levels in SCOP are all smaller than those in the classical finite comparative method and the SCOP function is more accurate and effective in the reliability analysis of geotechnical engineering.展开更多
To make full use of the gas resource, stabilize the pipe network pressure, and obtain higher economic benefits in the iron and steel industry, the surplus gas prediction and scheduling models were proposed. Before app...To make full use of the gas resource, stabilize the pipe network pressure, and obtain higher economic benefits in the iron and steel industry, the surplus gas prediction and scheduling models were proposed. Before applying the forecasting techniques, a support vector classifier was first used to classify the data, and then the filtering was used to create separate trend and volatility sequences. After forecasting, the Markov chain transition probability matrix was introduced to adjust the residual. Simulation results using surplus gas data from an iron and steel enterprise demonstrate that the constructed SVC-HP-ENN-LSSVM-MC prediction model prediction is accurate, and that the classification accuracy is high under different conditions. Based on this, the scheduling model was constructed for surplus gas operating, and it has been used to investigate the comprehensive measures for managing the operational probabilistic risk and optimize the economic benefit at various working conditions and implementations. It has extended the concepts of traditional surplus gas dispatching systems, and provides a method for enterprises to determine optimal schedules.展开更多
This works presents the first fully validated and predictive capability to model the V_0-V_(100) probabilistic penetration response of a woven fabric using a yarn-level fabric finite element model. The V_0-V_(100) cur...This works presents the first fully validated and predictive capability to model the V_0-V_(100) probabilistic penetration response of a woven fabric using a yarn-level fabric finite element model. The V_0-V_(100) curve describes the probability of complete fabric penetration as a function of projectile impact velocity. The exemplar case considered in this paper comprises of a single-layer, fully-clamped, plain-weave Kevlar fabric impacted at the center by a 17-gr, 0.22 cal FSP or fragment-simulating projectile. Each warp and fill yarn in the fabric is individually modeled using 3 D finite elements and the virtual fabric microstructure is validated in detail against the experimental fabric microstructure. Material and testing sources of statistical variability including yarn strength and modulus, inter-yarn friction, precise projectile impact location, and projectile rotation are mapped into the finite element model. A series of impact simulations at varying projectile impact velocities is executed using LS-DYNA on the fabric models, with each model comprising unique mappings. The impact velocities together with the outcomes(penetration, nonpenetration) are used to generate the numerical V_0-V_(100) curve which is then validated against the experimental V_0-V_(100) curve. The numerical Vi-Vrdata(impact, residual velocities) is also validated against the experimental Vi-Vrdata. For completeness, this paper also reports the experimental characterization data and its statistical analysis used for model input, viz. the Kevlar yarn tensile strengths, moduli, and inter-yarn friction, and the experimental ballistic test data used for model validation.展开更多
The remain passenger problem at subway station platform was defined initially,and the period variation of remain passenger queues at platform was investigated through arriving and boarding analyses.Taking remain passe...The remain passenger problem at subway station platform was defined initially,and the period variation of remain passenger queues at platform was investigated through arriving and boarding analyses.Taking remain passenger queues at platform as dynamic stochastic process,a new probabilistic queuing method was developed based on probabilistic theory and discrete time Markov chain theory.This model can calculate remain passenger queues while considering different directions.Considering the stable or variable train arriving period and different platform crossing types,a series of model deformation research was carried out.The probabilistic approach allows to capture the cyclic behavior of queues,measures the uncertainty of a queue state prediction by computing the evolution of its probability in time,and gives any temporal distribution of the arrivals.Compared with the actual data,the deviation of experimental results is less than 20%,which shows the efficiency of probabilistic approach clearly.展开更多
Person-borne improvised explosive devices(PBIEDs)are often used in terrorist attacks in Western countries.This study aims to predict the trajectories of PBIED fragments and the subsequent safety risks for people expos...Person-borne improvised explosive devices(PBIEDs)are often used in terrorist attacks in Western countries.This study aims to predict the trajectories of PBIED fragments and the subsequent safety risks for people exposed to this hazard.An explosive field test with a typical PBIED composed of a plastic explosive charge and steel nut enhancements was performed to record initial fragment behaviour,including positions,velocity,and trajectory angles.These data were used to predict the full trajectory of PBIED fragments using a probabilistic analysis.In the probabilistic analyses a probability of fatality or serious injury was computed.Based on the results presented,many practical conclusions can be drawn,for instance,regarding safe evacuation distances if a person were exposed to a suspected PBIED.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 62301119。
文摘The task of modeling and analyzing intercepted multifunction radars(MFRs)pulse trains is vital for cognitive electronic reconnaissance.Existing methodologies predominantly rely on prior information or heavily constrained models,posing challenges for non-cooperative applications.This paper introduces a novel approach to model MFRs using a Bayesian network,where the conditional probability density function is approximated by an autoregressive kernel mixture network(ARKMN).Utilizing the estimated probability density function,a dynamic programming algorithm is proposed for denoising and detecting change points in the intercepted MFRs pulse trains.Simulation results affirm the proposed method's efficacy in modeling MFRs,outperforming the state-of-the-art in pulse train denoising and change point detection.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71901214).
文摘In order to solve the problem of uncertainty and fuzzy information in the process of weapon equipment system selec-tion,a multi-attribute decision-making(MADM)method based on probabilistic hesitant fuzzy set(PHFS)is proposed.Firstly,we introduce the concept of probability and fuzzy entropy to mea-sure the ambiguity,hesitation and uncertainty of probabilistic hesitant fuzzy elements(PHFEs).Sequentially,the expert trust network is constructed,and the importance of each expert in the network can be obtained by calculating the cumulative trust value under multiple trust propagation paths,so as to obtain the expert weight vector.Finally,we put forward an MADM method combining the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy entropy and grey rela-tion analysis(GRA)model,and an illustrative case is employed to prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the method when solving the weapon system selection decision-making problem.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.50375130and50323003), the Special Foundation of National Excellent Ph.D.Thesis (No.200234) and thePlanned Itemforthe Outstanding Young Teachers ofMinistry ofEducationofChina (No.2101)
文摘Experimental study is performed on the probabilistic models for the long fatigue crack growth rates (da/dN) of LZ50 axle steel. An equation for crack growth rate was derived to consider the trend of stress intensity factor range going down to the threshold and the average stress effect. The probabilistic models were presented on the equation. They consist of the probabilistic da/dN-ΔK relations, the confidence-based da/dN-ΔK relations, and the probabilistic- and confidence-based da/dN-ΔK relations. Efforts were made respectively to characterize the effects of probabilistic assessments due to the scattering regularity of test data, the number of sampling, and both of them. These relations can provide wide selections for practice. Analysis on the test data of LZ50 steel indicates that the present models are available and feasible.
基金Defense Advanced Research Project "the Techniques of Information Integrated Processing and Fusion" in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (513060302).
文摘Joint probabilistic data association is an effective method for tracking multiple targets in clutter, but only the target kinematic information is used in measure-to-track association. If the kinematic likelihoods are similar for different closely spaced targets, there is ambiguity in using the kinematic information alone; the correct association probability will decrease in conventional joint probabilistic data association algorithm and track coalescence will occur easily. A modified algorithm of joint probabilistic data association with classification-aided is presented, which avoids track coalescence when tracking multiple neighboring targets. Firstly, an identification matrix is defined, which is used to simplify validation matrix to decrease computational complexity. Then, target class information is integrated into the data association process. Performance comparisons with and without the use of class information in JPDA are presented on multiple closely spaced maneuvering targets tracking problem. Simulation results quantify the benefits of classification-aided JPDA for improved multiple targets tracking, especially in the presence of association uncertainty in the kinematic measurement and target maneuvering. Simulation results indicate that the algorithm is valid.
文摘Probabilistic analysis is a rational approach for engineering design because it provides more insight than traditional deterministic analysis. Probabilistic evaluation on seismic stability of three dimensional (3D) slopes is studied in this paper. The slope safety factor is computed by combining the kinematic approach of limit analysis using a three-dimensional rotational failure mechanism with the pseudo-dynamic approach. The variability of input parameters, including six pseudo-dynamic parameters and two soil shear strength parameters, are taken into account by means of Monte-Carlo Simulations (MCS) method. The influences of pseudo-dynamic input variables on the computed failure probabilities are investigated and discussed. It is shown that the obtained failure probabilities increase with the pseudo-dynamic input variables and the pseudo-dynamic approach gives more conservative failure probability estimates compared with the pseudo-static approach.
基金Projects (51275138,51605016) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject (12531109) supported by the Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Provincial Department of Education,ChinaProject supported by Research Start-up Funding of Fudan University,China
文摘For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was established based on quadratic polynomial function by taking extremum response surface model as the sub-model of multi-response surface method.The dynamic probabilistic analysis of an aeroengine turbine blisk with two components,and their reliability of deformation and stress failures was obtained,based on thermal-structural coupling technique,by considering the nonlinearity of material parameters and the transients of gas flow,gas temperature and rotational speed.The results show that the comprehensive reliability of structure is 0.9904 when the allowable deformations and stresses of blade and disk are 4.78×10–3 m and 1.41×109 Pa,and 1.64×10–3 m and 1.04×109 Pa,respectively.Besides,gas temperature and rotating speed severely influence the comprehensive reliability of system.Through the comparison of methods,it is shown that the MERSM holds higher computational precision and speed in the probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk,and MERSM computational precision satisfies the requirement of engineering design.The efforts of this study address the difficulties on transients and multiple models coupling for the dynamic probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes.
文摘The traditional voltage stability analysis method is mostly based on the deterministic mode1.and ignores the uncertainties of bus loads,power supplies,changes in network configuration and so on.However,the great expansion of renewable power generations such as wind and solar energy in a power system has increased their uncertainty,and仃aditional techniques are limited in capturing their variable behavior.This leads to greater needs of new techniques and methodologies to properly quan tify the voltage stability of power systems.
基金Projects(51375032,51175017,51245027)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In order to describe and control the stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies used in the aeroengine, a highly efficient and precise method of probabilistic analysis which is called extremum response surface method(ERSM) is produced based on the previous deterministic analysis results with the finite element model(FEM). In this work, many key nonlinear factors, such as the dynamic feature of the temperature load, the centrifugal force and the boundary conditions, are taken into consideration for the model. The changing patterns with time of bladed disk assemblies about stress distribution and total deformation are obtained during the deterministic analysis, and at the same time, the largest deformation and stress nodes of bladed disk assemblies are found and taken as input target of probabilistic analysis in a scientific and reasonable way. Not only their reliability, historical sample, extreme response surface(ERS) and the cumulative probability distribution function but also their sensitivity and effect probability are obtained. Main factors affecting stress distribution and total deformation of bladed disk assemblies are investigated through the sensitivity analysis of the model. Finally, compared with the response surface method(RSM) and the Monte Carlo simulation(MCS), the results show that this new approach is effective.
基金supported by the Key Research and Development Project of Hunan Province(2019SK2331)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2019JJ40099,2019JJ40100,2020JJ4339)+2 种基金the Key Scientific Research Project of Hunan Education Department(18A317,19A202)the Scientific Research Fund of Hunan Provincial Education Department(20B272)the Innovation Foundation for Postgraduate of Hunan Institute of Science and Technology(YCX2020A34).
文摘As a generalization of fuzzy set,hesitant probabilistic fuzzy set and pythagorean triangular fuzzy set have their own unique advantages in describing decision information.As modern socioeconomic decision-making problems are becoming more and more complex,it also becomes more and more difficult to appropriately depict decision makers’cognitive information in decision-making process.In order to describe the decision information more comprehensively,we define a pythagorean probabilistic hesitant triangular fuzzy set(PPHTFS)by combining the pythagorean triangular fuzzy set and the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy set.Firstly,the basic operation and scoring function of the pythagorean probabilistic hesitant triangular fuzzy element(PPHTFE)are proposed,and the comparison rule of two PPHTFEs is given.Then,some pythagorean probabilistic hesitant triangular fuzzy aggregation operators are developed,and their properties are also studied.Finally,a multi-attribute decision-making(MADM)model is constructed based on the proposed operators under the pythagorean probabilistic hesitant triangular fuzzy information,and an illustration example is given to demonstrate the practicability and validity of the proposed decision-making method.
基金Projects(50490274 , 10472134 , 50404010) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China project(2002CB412703) supported by the Key Fundamental Research and Development Programof China
文摘A method to estimate the probabilistic density function （PDF） of shear strength parameters was proposed. The second Chebyshev orthogonal polynomial（SCOP） combined with sample moments （the origin moments） was used to approximate the PDF of parameters. X^2 test was adopted to verify the availability of the method. It is distribution-free because no classical theoretical distributions were assumed in advance and the inference result provides a universal form of probability density curves. Six most commonly-used theoretical distributions named normal, lognormal, extreme value Ⅰ , gama, beta and Weibull distributions were used to verify SCOP method. An example from the observed data of cohesion c of a kind of silt clay was presented for illustrative purpose. The results show that the acceptance levels in SCOP are all smaller than those in the classical finite comparative method and the SCOP function is more accurate and effective in the reliability analysis of geotechnical engineering.
基金Project(51204082)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(KKSY201458118)supported by the Talent Cultivation Project of Kuning University of Science and Technology,China
文摘To make full use of the gas resource, stabilize the pipe network pressure, and obtain higher economic benefits in the iron and steel industry, the surplus gas prediction and scheduling models were proposed. Before applying the forecasting techniques, a support vector classifier was first used to classify the data, and then the filtering was used to create separate trend and volatility sequences. After forecasting, the Markov chain transition probability matrix was introduced to adjust the residual. Simulation results using surplus gas data from an iron and steel enterprise demonstrate that the constructed SVC-HP-ENN-LSSVM-MC prediction model prediction is accurate, and that the classification accuracy is high under different conditions. Based on this, the scheduling model was constructed for surplus gas operating, and it has been used to investigate the comprehensive measures for managing the operational probabilistic risk and optimize the economic benefit at various working conditions and implementations. It has extended the concepts of traditional surplus gas dispatching systems, and provides a method for enterprises to determine optimal schedules.
基金supported by Teledyne Scientific&Imaging(TS&I),Internal Research and Development(IR&D)and approved for public release under TSI-PP-17-08
文摘This works presents the first fully validated and predictive capability to model the V_0-V_(100) probabilistic penetration response of a woven fabric using a yarn-level fabric finite element model. The V_0-V_(100) curve describes the probability of complete fabric penetration as a function of projectile impact velocity. The exemplar case considered in this paper comprises of a single-layer, fully-clamped, plain-weave Kevlar fabric impacted at the center by a 17-gr, 0.22 cal FSP or fragment-simulating projectile. Each warp and fill yarn in the fabric is individually modeled using 3 D finite elements and the virtual fabric microstructure is validated in detail against the experimental fabric microstructure. Material and testing sources of statistical variability including yarn strength and modulus, inter-yarn friction, precise projectile impact location, and projectile rotation are mapped into the finite element model. A series of impact simulations at varying projectile impact velocities is executed using LS-DYNA on the fabric models, with each model comprising unique mappings. The impact velocities together with the outcomes(penetration, nonpenetration) are used to generate the numerical V_0-V_(100) curve which is then validated against the experimental V_0-V_(100) curve. The numerical Vi-Vrdata(impact, residual velocities) is also validated against the experimental Vi-Vrdata. For completeness, this paper also reports the experimental characterization data and its statistical analysis used for model input, viz. the Kevlar yarn tensile strengths, moduli, and inter-yarn friction, and the experimental ballistic test data used for model validation.
基金Project(2011BAG01B01) supported by the Major State Basic Research and Development Program of ChinaProject(RCS2012ZZ002) supported by the State Key Lab of Rail Traffic Control and Safety,China
文摘The remain passenger problem at subway station platform was defined initially,and the period variation of remain passenger queues at platform was investigated through arriving and boarding analyses.Taking remain passenger queues at platform as dynamic stochastic process,a new probabilistic queuing method was developed based on probabilistic theory and discrete time Markov chain theory.This model can calculate remain passenger queues while considering different directions.Considering the stable or variable train arriving period and different platform crossing types,a series of model deformation research was carried out.The probabilistic approach allows to capture the cyclic behavior of queues,measures the uncertainty of a queue state prediction by computing the evolution of its probability in time,and gives any temporal distribution of the arrivals.Compared with the actual data,the deviation of experimental results is less than 20%,which shows the efficiency of probabilistic approach clearly.
基金This work was supported by the Poland National Center for Research and Development,under the grant DOB-BIO10/01/02/2019 within the Defence and Security Programme.
文摘Person-borne improvised explosive devices(PBIEDs)are often used in terrorist attacks in Western countries.This study aims to predict the trajectories of PBIED fragments and the subsequent safety risks for people exposed to this hazard.An explosive field test with a typical PBIED composed of a plastic explosive charge and steel nut enhancements was performed to record initial fragment behaviour,including positions,velocity,and trajectory angles.These data were used to predict the full trajectory of PBIED fragments using a probabilistic analysis.In the probabilistic analyses a probability of fatality or serious injury was computed.Based on the results presented,many practical conclusions can be drawn,for instance,regarding safe evacuation distances if a person were exposed to a suspected PBIED.
