In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system,a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using concept...In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system,a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using conceptions of the relative error,the change tendency of the forecasted object,gray basic weight and adaptive control coefficient on the basis of the method of fuzzy variable weight.Based on Visual Basic 6.0 platform,a fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting and management system was developed.The application results reveal that the forecasting precisions from the new nonlinear combined forecasting model are higher than those of other single combined forecasting models and the combined forecasting and management system is very powerful tool for the required decision in complex industry system.展开更多
综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)作为能源转型中的重要环节已得到越来越多国家的广泛关注。构建一套匹配中国国情的综合能源系统评价体系和评价方法不仅能够为综合能源系统规划后评价打下基础,以此对规划方案进行优劣排序;...综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)作为能源转型中的重要环节已得到越来越多国家的广泛关注。构建一套匹配中国国情的综合能源系统评价体系和评价方法不仅能够为综合能源系统规划后评价打下基础,以此对规划方案进行优劣排序;还能够提高综合能源系统项目的管理水平,在制定统一、完整的综合能源系统综合评价标准时提供参考。为此,首先结合园区IES基本特征以及运行特性,构建包含经济性、可靠性、环保性以及智能友好性4个方面的综合评价指标体系;然后为解决IES在运行中的不确定性问题,对基于传统云物元模型的综合评价体系提出云熵优化,即考虑不同评价者对模糊性的可接受程度;为解决单一赋权方法可能导致的评价结果过于主观或过于客观的问题,选择基于最小鉴别信息原理将决策实验室法与熵权法相结合的综合赋权法,并采用变权法进一步完善综合评价指标;最后通过算例分析,验证所提综合评价体系的科学正确性。展开更多
为准确合理地评价煤层顶板突水危险性,文章基于地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)空间分析技术,结合熵权法对突水分区变权模型进行改进优化。为避免权重确定的主观性与计算复杂性,引入信息熵求取常权向量。为防止“极大...为准确合理地评价煤层顶板突水危险性,文章基于地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)空间分析技术,结合熵权法对突水分区变权模型进行改进优化。为避免权重确定的主观性与计算复杂性,引入信息熵求取常权向量。为防止“极大”或“极小”值权重超调过大,提高各主控因素综合控制作用与各分区值变权重均衡性,采用保守型分区变权函数对变权模型进行修正。通过直接对主控因素栅格图运算和处理,避免因钻孔插值所造成的构造信息丢失问题。将改进模型与常权模型及仅通过钻孔构建的风险型分区变权模型进行比较,以实际突水点对评价模型进行识别检验。结果表明,改进的分区变权模型评价效果更好、精度更高,对煤矿顶板水害预测与防治具有指导性作用,在口孜东矿取得良好的应用效果。展开更多
基金Project(08SK1002) supported by the Major Project of Science and Technology Department of Hunan Province,China
文摘In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system,a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using conceptions of the relative error,the change tendency of the forecasted object,gray basic weight and adaptive control coefficient on the basis of the method of fuzzy variable weight.Based on Visual Basic 6.0 platform,a fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting and management system was developed.The application results reveal that the forecasting precisions from the new nonlinear combined forecasting model are higher than those of other single combined forecasting models and the combined forecasting and management system is very powerful tool for the required decision in complex industry system.
文摘综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)作为能源转型中的重要环节已得到越来越多国家的广泛关注。构建一套匹配中国国情的综合能源系统评价体系和评价方法不仅能够为综合能源系统规划后评价打下基础,以此对规划方案进行优劣排序;还能够提高综合能源系统项目的管理水平,在制定统一、完整的综合能源系统综合评价标准时提供参考。为此,首先结合园区IES基本特征以及运行特性,构建包含经济性、可靠性、环保性以及智能友好性4个方面的综合评价指标体系;然后为解决IES在运行中的不确定性问题,对基于传统云物元模型的综合评价体系提出云熵优化,即考虑不同评价者对模糊性的可接受程度;为解决单一赋权方法可能导致的评价结果过于主观或过于客观的问题,选择基于最小鉴别信息原理将决策实验室法与熵权法相结合的综合赋权法,并采用变权法进一步完善综合评价指标;最后通过算例分析,验证所提综合评价体系的科学正确性。
文摘为准确合理地评价煤层顶板突水危险性,文章基于地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)空间分析技术,结合熵权法对突水分区变权模型进行改进优化。为避免权重确定的主观性与计算复杂性,引入信息熵求取常权向量。为防止“极大”或“极小”值权重超调过大,提高各主控因素综合控制作用与各分区值变权重均衡性,采用保守型分区变权函数对变权模型进行修正。通过直接对主控因素栅格图运算和处理,避免因钻孔插值所造成的构造信息丢失问题。将改进模型与常权模型及仅通过钻孔构建的风险型分区变权模型进行比较,以实际突水点对评价模型进行识别检验。结果表明,改进的分区变权模型评价效果更好、精度更高,对煤矿顶板水害预测与防治具有指导性作用,在口孜东矿取得良好的应用效果。
