A new problem that classical statistical methods are incapable of solving is reliability modeling and assessment when multiple numerical control machine tools(NCMTs) reveal zero failures after a reliability test. Thus...A new problem that classical statistical methods are incapable of solving is reliability modeling and assessment when multiple numerical control machine tools(NCMTs) reveal zero failures after a reliability test. Thus, the zero-failure data form and corresponding Bayesian model are developed to solve the zero-failure problem of NCMTs, for which no previous suitable statistical model has been developed. An expert-judgment process that incorporates prior information is presented to solve the difficulty in obtaining reliable prior distributions of Weibull parameters. The equations for the posterior distribution of the parameter vector and the Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) algorithm are derived to solve the difficulty of calculating high-dimensional integration and to obtain parameter estimators. The proposed method is applied to a real case; a corresponding programming code and trick are developed to implement an MCMC simulation in Win BUGS, and a mean time between failures(MTBF) of 1057.9 h is obtained. Given its ability to combine expert judgment, prior information, and data, the proposed reliability modeling and assessment method under the zero failure of NCMTs is validated.展开更多
针对网络控制系统(networked control system,NCS)中随机时延导致系统性能下降的问题,利用粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization,PSO)的最小二乘支持向量机(least square support vector machine,LSSVM)建立NCS中随机时延预测模型,...针对网络控制系统(networked control system,NCS)中随机时延导致系统性能下降的问题,利用粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization,PSO)的最小二乘支持向量机(least square support vector machine,LSSVM)建立NCS中随机时延预测模型,精确预测未来时刻的时延;同时利用该预测算法预测的时延通过快速隐式广义预测控制算法对NCS随机时延进行补偿。仿真结果表明,PSO优化的LS-SVM算法对随机时延具有较高的预测精度,同时快速隐式广义预测控制算法可使系统的输出很好地跟踪参考轨迹,保证系统良好的控制效果。展开更多
基金Project(2014ZX04014-011)supported by State Key Science&Technology Program of ChinaProject([2016]414)supported by the 13th Five-year Program of Education Department of Jilin Province,China
文摘A new problem that classical statistical methods are incapable of solving is reliability modeling and assessment when multiple numerical control machine tools(NCMTs) reveal zero failures after a reliability test. Thus, the zero-failure data form and corresponding Bayesian model are developed to solve the zero-failure problem of NCMTs, for which no previous suitable statistical model has been developed. An expert-judgment process that incorporates prior information is presented to solve the difficulty in obtaining reliable prior distributions of Weibull parameters. The equations for the posterior distribution of the parameter vector and the Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) algorithm are derived to solve the difficulty of calculating high-dimensional integration and to obtain parameter estimators. The proposed method is applied to a real case; a corresponding programming code and trick are developed to implement an MCMC simulation in Win BUGS, and a mean time between failures(MTBF) of 1057.9 h is obtained. Given its ability to combine expert judgment, prior information, and data, the proposed reliability modeling and assessment method under the zero failure of NCMTs is validated.
文摘针对网络控制系统(networked control system,NCS)中随机时延导致系统性能下降的问题,利用粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization,PSO)的最小二乘支持向量机(least square support vector machine,LSSVM)建立NCS中随机时延预测模型,精确预测未来时刻的时延;同时利用该预测算法预测的时延通过快速隐式广义预测控制算法对NCS随机时延进行补偿。仿真结果表明,PSO优化的LS-SVM算法对随机时延具有较高的预测精度,同时快速隐式广义预测控制算法可使系统的输出很好地跟踪参考轨迹,保证系统良好的控制效果。
