Shockwaves from fuel-air explosive(FAE)cloud explosions may cause significant casualties.The ground overpressure field is usually used to evaluate the damage range of explosion shockwaves.In this paper,a finite elemen...Shockwaves from fuel-air explosive(FAE)cloud explosions may cause significant casualties.The ground overpressure field is usually used to evaluate the damage range of explosion shockwaves.In this paper,a finite element model of multi-sources FAE explosion is established to simulate the process of multiple shockwaves propagation and interaction.The model is verified with the experimental data of a fourfoldsource FAE explosion,with the total fuel mass of 340 kg.Simulation results show that the overpressure fields of multi-sources FAE explosions are different from that of the single-source.In the case of multisources,the overpressure fields are influenced significantly by source scattering distance and source number.Subsequently,damage ranges of overpressure under three different levels are calculated.Within a suitable source scattering distance,the damage range of multi-sources situation is greater than that of the single-source,under the same amount of total fuel mass.This research provides a basis for personnel shockwave protection from multi-sources FAE explosion.展开更多
The planetary reducer is a common type of transmission mechanism,which can provide high transmission accuracy and has been widely used,and it is usually required with high reliability of transmission characteristics i...The planetary reducer is a common type of transmission mechanism,which can provide high transmission accuracy and has been widely used,and it is usually required with high reliability of transmission characteristics in practice.During the manufacturing and usage stages of planetary reducers,uncertainties are ubiquitous and wear is inevitable,which affect the transmission characteristics and the reliability of planetary reducers.In this paper,belief reliability modeling and analysis considering multi-uncertainties and wear are proposed for planetary reducers.Firstly,based on the functional principle and the influence of wear,the performance margin degradation model is established using the hysteresis error as the key performance parameter,where the degradation is mainly caused by the accumulated wear.After that,multi-source uncertainties are analyzed and quantified separately,including manufacturing errors,uncertainties in operational and environmental conditions,and uncertainties in performance thresholds.Finally,the belief reliability model is established based on the performance margin degradation model.A case study of a planetary reducer is applied and the reliability sensitivity analysis is implemented to show the practicability of the proposed method.The results show that the proposed method can provide some suggestions to the design and manufacturing phases of the planetary reducer.展开更多
The development of 3D geological models involves the integration of large amounts of geological data,as well as additional accessible proprietary lithological, structural,geochemical,geophysical,and borehole data.Luan...The development of 3D geological models involves the integration of large amounts of geological data,as well as additional accessible proprietary lithological, structural,geochemical,geophysical,and borehole data.Luanchuan,the case study area,southwestern Henan Province,is an important molybdenum-tungsten -lead-zinc polymetallic belt in China.展开更多
When employing penetration ammunition to strike multi-story buildings,the detection methods using acceleration sensors suffer from signal aliasing,while magnetic detection methods are susceptible to interference from ...When employing penetration ammunition to strike multi-story buildings,the detection methods using acceleration sensors suffer from signal aliasing,while magnetic detection methods are susceptible to interference from ferromagnetic materials,thereby posing challenges in accurately determining the number of layers.To address this issue,this research proposes a layer counting method for penetration fuze that incorporates multi-source information fusion,utilizing both the temporal convolutional network(TCN)and the long short-term memory(LSTM)recurrent network.By leveraging the strengths of these two network structures,the method extracts temporal and high-dimensional features from the multi-source physical field during the penetration process,establishing a relationship between the multi-source physical field and the distance between the fuze and the target plate.A simulation model is developed to simulate the overload and magnetic field of a projectile penetrating multiple layers of target plates,capturing the multi-source physical field signals and their patterns during the penetration process.The analysis reveals that the proposed multi-source fusion layer counting method reduces errors by 60% and 50% compared to single overload layer counting and single magnetic anomaly signal layer counting,respectively.The model's predictive performance is evaluated under various operating conditions,including different ratios of added noise to random sample positions,penetration speeds,and spacing between target plates.The maximum errors in fuze penetration time predicted by the three modes are 0.08 ms,0.12 ms,and 0.16 ms,respectively,confirming the robustness of the proposed model.Moreover,the model's predictions indicate that the fitting degree for large interlayer spacings is superior to that for small interlayer spacings due to the influence of stress waves.展开更多
Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is broadly employed in the research of multi-source information fusion.Nevertheless,when fusing highly conflicting evidence it may pro-duce counterintuitive outcomes.To address this iss...Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is broadly employed in the research of multi-source information fusion.Nevertheless,when fusing highly conflicting evidence it may pro-duce counterintuitive outcomes.To address this issue,a fusion approach based on a newly defined belief exponential diver-gence and Deng entropy is proposed.First,a belief exponential divergence is proposed as the conflict measurement between evidences.Then,the credibility of each evidence is calculated.Afterwards,the Deng entropy is used to calculate information volume to determine the uncertainty of evidence.Then,the weight of evidence is calculated by integrating the credibility and uncertainty of each evidence.Ultimately,initial evidences are amended and fused using Dempster’s rule of combination.The effectiveness of this approach in addressing the fusion of three typical conflict paradoxes is demonstrated by arithmetic exam-ples.Additionally,the proposed approach is applied to aerial tar-get recognition and iris dataset-based classification to validate its efficacy.Results indicate that the proposed approach can enhance the accuracy of target recognition and effectively address the issue of fusing conflicting evidences.展开更多
A methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios is presented.Its main idea is to let the system model ＂express itself＂ through simulation.This is achieved by having the simulation model driven by an elabor...A methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios is presented.Its main idea is to let the system model ＂express itself＂ through simulation.This is achieved by having the simulation model driven by an elaborated simulation engine,which：（i） manipulates the generation of branch points,i.e.event occurrence times;（ii） employs a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible branch paths at each branch point.In addition,a backtracking technique,as an extension,is implemented to recover some missed risk scenarios.A widely discussed dynamic reliability example（a holdup tank） is used to aid in the explanation of and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.展开更多
This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relev...This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relevant process parameters and initial conditions) have a significant influence on the evolution of the system.The main idea of the methodology is:(i) making the system model "express itself" through simulation by having the model driven by an elaborated simulation engine;(ii) exploiting uniform design to pick out a small subset of representative design points from the space of relevant dynamic characteristics;(iii) for each selected design point,employing a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible scenario branches at each branch point.A highly dynamic example adapted from the literature(a chemical batch reactor) is studied to test the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.展开更多
Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two meth...Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.展开更多
The components of urban surface cover are diversified,and component temperature has greater physical significance and application values in the studies on urban thermal environment.Although the multi-angle retrieval a...The components of urban surface cover are diversified,and component temperature has greater physical significance and application values in the studies on urban thermal environment.Although the multi-angle retrieval algorithm of component temperature has been matured gradually,its application in the studies on urban thermal environment is restricted due to the difficulty in acquiring urban-scale multi-angle thermal infrared data.Therefore,based on the existing multi-source multi-band remote sensing data,access to appropriate urban-scale component temperature is an urgent issue to be solved in current studies on urban thermal infrared remote sensing.Then,a retrieval algorithm of urban component temperature by multi-source multi-band remote sensing data on the basis of MODIS and Landsat TM images was proposed with expectations achieved in this work,which was finally validated by the experiment on urban images of Changsha,China.The results show that：1） Mean temperatures of impervious surface components and vegetation components are the maximum and minimum,respectively,which are in accordance with the distribution laws of actual surface temperature; 2） High-accuracy retrieval results are obtained in vegetation component temperature.Moreover,through a contrast between retrieval results and measured data,it is found that the retrieval temperature of impervious surface component has the maximum deviation from measured temperature and its deviation is greater than 1 ℃,while the deviation in vegetation component temperature is relatively low at 0.5 ℃.展开更多
Weapon project planning(WPP) plays a critical role in the process of national defense development and establishment of the future national defense force. WPP faces the backgrounds of various uncertainties, intense int...Weapon project planning(WPP) plays a critical role in the process of national defense development and establishment of the future national defense force. WPP faces the backgrounds of various uncertainties, intense inter-influence of weapon systems and involves modelling, assessment, and optimization procedures.The contents of this paper are mainly divided into three parts: first,the WPP processes are analyzed, and related elements are formulated to transform the qualitative problem to mathematics form;second, the value evaluation model of WPP solutions is proposed based on two criteria of total capability gap and total capability dispersion; third, two robustness optimization models are constructed based on the absolute robustness criterion and the robustness deviation criterion to support the robustness optimization process under multi-scenario. Finally, a case is studied to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed models and approaches.展开更多
An economic dispatch problem for power system with wind power is discussed.Using discrete scenario to describe uncertain wind powers,a threshold is given to identify bad scenario set.The bad-scenario-set robust econom...An economic dispatch problem for power system with wind power is discussed.Using discrete scenario to describe uncertain wind powers,a threshold is given to identify bad scenario set.The bad-scenario-set robust economic dispatch model is established to minimize the total penalties on bad scenarios.A specialized hybrid particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm is developed through hybridizing simulated annealing(SA)operators.The SA operators are performed according to a scenario-oriented adaptive search rule in a neighborhood which is constructed based on the unit commitment constraints.Finally,an experiment is conducted.The computational results show that the developed algorithm outperforms the existing algorithms.展开更多
Navy combat search and rescue(NCSAR) is an important component of the modern maritime warfare and the scenario of NCSAR is the basis for decision makers to rely on. According to the core elements in the NCSAR process,...Navy combat search and rescue(NCSAR) is an important component of the modern maritime warfare and the scenario of NCSAR is the basis for decision makers to rely on. According to the core elements in the NCSAR process, the NCSAR scenario structure is constructed from seven perspectives based on the multi-view architecture framework. According to the NCSAR scenarios evolution over time, the NCSAR scenario sequence is analyzed and modeled based on the concept lattice method. Then,the incremental construction algorithm of the NCSAR scenario sequence lattice is given. On this basis, the similarity measurement index of NCSAR scenarios is defined, and the similarity measurement model of NCSAR scenarios is proposed. Finally, the rationality of the method is verified by an example analysis. The NCSAR scenario and similarity measurement method proposed can provide scientific guidance for rapid making, dynamic adjustment and implementation of the NCSAR program, and thus improve the efficiency and effectiveness of NCSAR.展开更多
The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned.Projects are typically selected based on ex ant...The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned.Projects are typically selected based on ex ante estimates of future return values,which are usually difficult to specify or only generated after project launch.A scenario-based approach is presented here to address the problem of selecting a project portfolio under incomplete scenario information and interdependency constraints.In the first stage,the relevant dominance concepts of scenario analysis are studied to handle the incomplete information.Then,a scenario-based programming approach is proposed to handle the interdependencies to obtain the projects,whose return values are multi-criteria with interval data.Finally,an illustrative example of army engineering and manufacturing development shows the feasibility and advantages of the scenario-based multi-objective programming approach.展开更多
基金The authors would like to acknowledge the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2019M660488)to provide fund for this work.
文摘Shockwaves from fuel-air explosive(FAE)cloud explosions may cause significant casualties.The ground overpressure field is usually used to evaluate the damage range of explosion shockwaves.In this paper,a finite element model of multi-sources FAE explosion is established to simulate the process of multiple shockwaves propagation and interaction.The model is verified with the experimental data of a fourfoldsource FAE explosion,with the total fuel mass of 340 kg.Simulation results show that the overpressure fields of multi-sources FAE explosions are different from that of the single-source.In the case of multisources,the overpressure fields are influenced significantly by source scattering distance and source number.Subsequently,damage ranges of overpressure under three different levels are calculated.Within a suitable source scattering distance,the damage range of multi-sources situation is greater than that of the single-source,under the same amount of total fuel mass.This research provides a basis for personnel shockwave protection from multi-sources FAE explosion.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51775020,51875019)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(YWF-20-BJ-J-515).
文摘The planetary reducer is a common type of transmission mechanism,which can provide high transmission accuracy and has been widely used,and it is usually required with high reliability of transmission characteristics in practice.During the manufacturing and usage stages of planetary reducers,uncertainties are ubiquitous and wear is inevitable,which affect the transmission characteristics and the reliability of planetary reducers.In this paper,belief reliability modeling and analysis considering multi-uncertainties and wear are proposed for planetary reducers.Firstly,based on the functional principle and the influence of wear,the performance margin degradation model is established using the hysteresis error as the key performance parameter,where the degradation is mainly caused by the accumulated wear.After that,multi-source uncertainties are analyzed and quantified separately,including manufacturing errors,uncertainties in operational and environmental conditions,and uncertainties in performance thresholds.Finally,the belief reliability model is established based on the performance margin degradation model.A case study of a planetary reducer is applied and the reliability sensitivity analysis is implemented to show the practicability of the proposed method.The results show that the proposed method can provide some suggestions to the design and manufacturing phases of the planetary reducer.
文摘The development of 3D geological models involves the integration of large amounts of geological data,as well as additional accessible proprietary lithological, structural,geochemical,geophysical,and borehole data.Luanchuan,the case study area,southwestern Henan Province,is an important molybdenum-tungsten -lead-zinc polymetallic belt in China.
文摘When employing penetration ammunition to strike multi-story buildings,the detection methods using acceleration sensors suffer from signal aliasing,while magnetic detection methods are susceptible to interference from ferromagnetic materials,thereby posing challenges in accurately determining the number of layers.To address this issue,this research proposes a layer counting method for penetration fuze that incorporates multi-source information fusion,utilizing both the temporal convolutional network(TCN)and the long short-term memory(LSTM)recurrent network.By leveraging the strengths of these two network structures,the method extracts temporal and high-dimensional features from the multi-source physical field during the penetration process,establishing a relationship between the multi-source physical field and the distance between the fuze and the target plate.A simulation model is developed to simulate the overload and magnetic field of a projectile penetrating multiple layers of target plates,capturing the multi-source physical field signals and their patterns during the penetration process.The analysis reveals that the proposed multi-source fusion layer counting method reduces errors by 60% and 50% compared to single overload layer counting and single magnetic anomaly signal layer counting,respectively.The model's predictive performance is evaluated under various operating conditions,including different ratios of added noise to random sample positions,penetration speeds,and spacing between target plates.The maximum errors in fuze penetration time predicted by the three modes are 0.08 ms,0.12 ms,and 0.16 ms,respectively,confirming the robustness of the proposed model.Moreover,the model's predictions indicate that the fitting degree for large interlayer spacings is superior to that for small interlayer spacings due to the influence of stress waves.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61903305,62073267)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(HXGJXM202214).
文摘Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is broadly employed in the research of multi-source information fusion.Nevertheless,when fusing highly conflicting evidence it may pro-duce counterintuitive outcomes.To address this issue,a fusion approach based on a newly defined belief exponential diver-gence and Deng entropy is proposed.First,a belief exponential divergence is proposed as the conflict measurement between evidences.Then,the credibility of each evidence is calculated.Afterwards,the Deng entropy is used to calculate information volume to determine the uncertainty of evidence.Then,the weight of evidence is calculated by integrating the credibility and uncertainty of each evidence.Ultimately,initial evidences are amended and fused using Dempster’s rule of combination.The effectiveness of this approach in addressing the fusion of three typical conflict paradoxes is demonstrated by arithmetic exam-ples.Additionally,the proposed approach is applied to aerial tar-get recognition and iris dataset-based classification to validate its efficacy.Results indicate that the proposed approach can enhance the accuracy of target recognition and effectively address the issue of fusing conflicting evidences.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70901004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (YWF-10-01-A12)
文摘A methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios is presented.Its main idea is to let the system model ＂express itself＂ through simulation.This is achieved by having the simulation model driven by an elaborated simulation engine,which：（i） manipulates the generation of branch points,i.e.event occurrence times;（ii） employs a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible branch paths at each branch point.In addition,a backtracking technique,as an extension,is implemented to recover some missed risk scenarios.A widely discussed dynamic reliability example（a holdup tank） is used to aid in the explanation of and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70901004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (YWF-10-01-A12)
文摘This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relevant process parameters and initial conditions) have a significant influence on the evolution of the system.The main idea of the methodology is:(i) making the system model "express itself" through simulation by having the model driven by an elaborated simulation engine;(ii) exploiting uniform design to pick out a small subset of representative design points from the space of relevant dynamic characteristics;(iii) for each selected design point,employing a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible scenario branches at each branch point.A highly dynamic example adapted from the literature(a chemical batch reactor) is studied to test the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
基金Supported by Heilongjiang Province Personnel Departments Post-doctorate Project (LC07C34)
文摘Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.
基金Projects(41171326,40771198)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(08JJ6023)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China
文摘The components of urban surface cover are diversified,and component temperature has greater physical significance and application values in the studies on urban thermal environment.Although the multi-angle retrieval algorithm of component temperature has been matured gradually,its application in the studies on urban thermal environment is restricted due to the difficulty in acquiring urban-scale multi-angle thermal infrared data.Therefore,based on the existing multi-source multi-band remote sensing data,access to appropriate urban-scale component temperature is an urgent issue to be solved in current studies on urban thermal infrared remote sensing.Then,a retrieval algorithm of urban component temperature by multi-source multi-band remote sensing data on the basis of MODIS and Landsat TM images was proposed with expectations achieved in this work,which was finally validated by the experiment on urban images of Changsha,China.The results show that：1） Mean temperatures of impervious surface components and vegetation components are the maximum and minimum,respectively,which are in accordance with the distribution laws of actual surface temperature; 2） High-accuracy retrieval results are obtained in vegetation component temperature.Moreover,through a contrast between retrieval results and measured data,it is found that the retrieval temperature of impervious surface component has the maximum deviation from measured temperature and its deviation is greater than 1 ℃,while the deviation in vegetation component temperature is relatively low at 0.5 ℃.
基金supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(15GJ003-278)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71501182)
文摘Weapon project planning(WPP) plays a critical role in the process of national defense development and establishment of the future national defense force. WPP faces the backgrounds of various uncertainties, intense inter-influence of weapon systems and involves modelling, assessment, and optimization procedures.The contents of this paper are mainly divided into three parts: first,the WPP processes are analyzed, and related elements are formulated to transform the qualitative problem to mathematics form;second, the value evaluation model of WPP solutions is proposed based on two criteria of total capability gap and total capability dispersion; third, two robustness optimization models are constructed based on the absolute robustness criterion and the robustness deviation criterion to support the robustness optimization process under multi-scenario. Finally, a case is studied to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed models and approaches.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62173219,62073210).
文摘An economic dispatch problem for power system with wind power is discussed.Using discrete scenario to describe uncertain wind powers,a threshold is given to identify bad scenario set.The bad-scenario-set robust economic dispatch model is established to minimize the total penalties on bad scenarios.A specialized hybrid particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm is developed through hybridizing simulated annealing(SA)operators.The SA operators are performed according to a scenario-oriented adaptive search rule in a neighborhood which is constructed based on the unit commitment constraints.Finally,an experiment is conducted.The computational results show that the developed algorithm outperforms the existing algorithms.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71571185)the National Key Research and Development Project of China (2017YFC1405006)。
文摘Navy combat search and rescue(NCSAR) is an important component of the modern maritime warfare and the scenario of NCSAR is the basis for decision makers to rely on. According to the core elements in the NCSAR process, the NCSAR scenario structure is constructed from seven perspectives based on the multi-view architecture framework. According to the NCSAR scenarios evolution over time, the NCSAR scenario sequence is analyzed and modeled based on the concept lattice method. Then,the incremental construction algorithm of the NCSAR scenario sequence lattice is given. On this basis, the similarity measurement index of NCSAR scenarios is defined, and the similarity measurement model of NCSAR scenarios is proposed. Finally, the rationality of the method is verified by an example analysis. The NCSAR scenario and similarity measurement method proposed can provide scientific guidance for rapid making, dynamic adjustment and implementation of the NCSAR program, and thus improve the efficiency and effectiveness of NCSAR.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(7157118571201168)
文摘The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned.Projects are typically selected based on ex ante estimates of future return values,which are usually difficult to specify or only generated after project launch.A scenario-based approach is presented here to address the problem of selecting a project portfolio under incomplete scenario information and interdependency constraints.In the first stage,the relevant dominance concepts of scenario analysis are studied to handle the incomplete information.Then,a scenario-based programming approach is proposed to handle the interdependencies to obtain the projects,whose return values are multi-criteria with interval data.Finally,an illustrative example of army engineering and manufacturing development shows the feasibility and advantages of the scenario-based multi-objective programming approach.
