A methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios is presented.Its main idea is to let the system model ＂express itself＂ through simulation.This is achieved by having the simulation model driven by an elabor...A methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios is presented.Its main idea is to let the system model ＂express itself＂ through simulation.This is achieved by having the simulation model driven by an elaborated simulation engine,which：（i） manipulates the generation of branch points,i.e.event occurrence times;（ii） employs a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible branch paths at each branch point.In addition,a backtracking technique,as an extension,is implemented to recover some missed risk scenarios.A widely discussed dynamic reliability example（a holdup tank） is used to aid in the explanation of and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.展开更多
This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relev...This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relevant process parameters and initial conditions) have a significant influence on the evolution of the system.The main idea of the methodology is:(i) making the system model "express itself" through simulation by having the model driven by an elaborated simulation engine;(ii) exploiting uniform design to pick out a small subset of representative design points from the space of relevant dynamic characteristics;(iii) for each selected design point,employing a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible scenario branches at each branch point.A highly dynamic example adapted from the literature(a chemical batch reactor) is studied to test the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.展开更多
Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two meth...Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.展开更多
Weapon project planning(WPP) plays a critical role in the process of national defense development and establishment of the future national defense force. WPP faces the backgrounds of various uncertainties, intense int...Weapon project planning(WPP) plays a critical role in the process of national defense development and establishment of the future national defense force. WPP faces the backgrounds of various uncertainties, intense inter-influence of weapon systems and involves modelling, assessment, and optimization procedures.The contents of this paper are mainly divided into three parts: first,the WPP processes are analyzed, and related elements are formulated to transform the qualitative problem to mathematics form;second, the value evaluation model of WPP solutions is proposed based on two criteria of total capability gap and total capability dispersion; third, two robustness optimization models are constructed based on the absolute robustness criterion and the robustness deviation criterion to support the robustness optimization process under multi-scenario. Finally, a case is studied to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed models and approaches.展开更多
An economic dispatch problem for power system with wind power is discussed.Using discrete scenario to describe uncertain wind powers,a threshold is given to identify bad scenario set.The bad-scenario-set robust econom...An economic dispatch problem for power system with wind power is discussed.Using discrete scenario to describe uncertain wind powers,a threshold is given to identify bad scenario set.The bad-scenario-set robust economic dispatch model is established to minimize the total penalties on bad scenarios.A specialized hybrid particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm is developed through hybridizing simulated annealing(SA)operators.The SA operators are performed according to a scenario-oriented adaptive search rule in a neighborhood which is constructed based on the unit commitment constraints.Finally,an experiment is conducted.The computational results show that the developed algorithm outperforms the existing algorithms.展开更多
Navy combat search and rescue(NCSAR) is an important component of the modern maritime warfare and the scenario of NCSAR is the basis for decision makers to rely on. According to the core elements in the NCSAR process,...Navy combat search and rescue(NCSAR) is an important component of the modern maritime warfare and the scenario of NCSAR is the basis for decision makers to rely on. According to the core elements in the NCSAR process, the NCSAR scenario structure is constructed from seven perspectives based on the multi-view architecture framework. According to the NCSAR scenarios evolution over time, the NCSAR scenario sequence is analyzed and modeled based on the concept lattice method. Then,the incremental construction algorithm of the NCSAR scenario sequence lattice is given. On this basis, the similarity measurement index of NCSAR scenarios is defined, and the similarity measurement model of NCSAR scenarios is proposed. Finally, the rationality of the method is verified by an example analysis. The NCSAR scenario and similarity measurement method proposed can provide scientific guidance for rapid making, dynamic adjustment and implementation of the NCSAR program, and thus improve the efficiency and effectiveness of NCSAR.展开更多
The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned.Projects are typically selected based on ex ant...The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned.Projects are typically selected based on ex ante estimates of future return values,which are usually difficult to specify or only generated after project launch.A scenario-based approach is presented here to address the problem of selecting a project portfolio under incomplete scenario information and interdependency constraints.In the first stage,the relevant dominance concepts of scenario analysis are studied to handle the incomplete information.Then,a scenario-based programming approach is proposed to handle the interdependencies to obtain the projects,whose return values are multi-criteria with interval data.Finally,an illustrative example of army engineering and manufacturing development shows the feasibility and advantages of the scenario-based multi-objective programming approach.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70901004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (YWF-10-01-A12)
文摘A methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios is presented.Its main idea is to let the system model ＂express itself＂ through simulation.This is achieved by having the simulation model driven by an elaborated simulation engine,which：（i） manipulates the generation of branch points,i.e.event occurrence times;（ii） employs a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible branch paths at each branch point.In addition,a backtracking technique,as an extension,is implemented to recover some missed risk scenarios.A widely discussed dynamic reliability example（a holdup tank） is used to aid in the explanation of and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70901004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (YWF-10-01-A12)
文摘This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relevant process parameters and initial conditions) have a significant influence on the evolution of the system.The main idea of the methodology is:(i) making the system model "express itself" through simulation by having the model driven by an elaborated simulation engine;(ii) exploiting uniform design to pick out a small subset of representative design points from the space of relevant dynamic characteristics;(iii) for each selected design point,employing a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible scenario branches at each branch point.A highly dynamic example adapted from the literature(a chemical batch reactor) is studied to test the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
基金Supported by Heilongjiang Province Personnel Departments Post-doctorate Project (LC07C34)
文摘Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.
基金supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(15GJ003-278)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71501182)
文摘Weapon project planning(WPP) plays a critical role in the process of national defense development and establishment of the future national defense force. WPP faces the backgrounds of various uncertainties, intense inter-influence of weapon systems and involves modelling, assessment, and optimization procedures.The contents of this paper are mainly divided into three parts: first,the WPP processes are analyzed, and related elements are formulated to transform the qualitative problem to mathematics form;second, the value evaluation model of WPP solutions is proposed based on two criteria of total capability gap and total capability dispersion; third, two robustness optimization models are constructed based on the absolute robustness criterion and the robustness deviation criterion to support the robustness optimization process under multi-scenario. Finally, a case is studied to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed models and approaches.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62173219,62073210).
文摘An economic dispatch problem for power system with wind power is discussed.Using discrete scenario to describe uncertain wind powers,a threshold is given to identify bad scenario set.The bad-scenario-set robust economic dispatch model is established to minimize the total penalties on bad scenarios.A specialized hybrid particle swarm optimization(PSO)algorithm is developed through hybridizing simulated annealing(SA)operators.The SA operators are performed according to a scenario-oriented adaptive search rule in a neighborhood which is constructed based on the unit commitment constraints.Finally,an experiment is conducted.The computational results show that the developed algorithm outperforms the existing algorithms.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71571185)the National Key Research and Development Project of China (2017YFC1405006)。
文摘Navy combat search and rescue(NCSAR) is an important component of the modern maritime warfare and the scenario of NCSAR is the basis for decision makers to rely on. According to the core elements in the NCSAR process, the NCSAR scenario structure is constructed from seven perspectives based on the multi-view architecture framework. According to the NCSAR scenarios evolution over time, the NCSAR scenario sequence is analyzed and modeled based on the concept lattice method. Then,the incremental construction algorithm of the NCSAR scenario sequence lattice is given. On this basis, the similarity measurement index of NCSAR scenarios is defined, and the similarity measurement model of NCSAR scenarios is proposed. Finally, the rationality of the method is verified by an example analysis. The NCSAR scenario and similarity measurement method proposed can provide scientific guidance for rapid making, dynamic adjustment and implementation of the NCSAR program, and thus improve the efficiency and effectiveness of NCSAR.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(7157118571201168)
文摘The decisions concerning portfolio selection for army engineering and manufacturing development projects determine the benefit of those projects to the country concerned.Projects are typically selected based on ex ante estimates of future return values,which are usually difficult to specify or only generated after project launch.A scenario-based approach is presented here to address the problem of selecting a project portfolio under incomplete scenario information and interdependency constraints.In the first stage,the relevant dominance concepts of scenario analysis are studied to handle the incomplete information.Then,a scenario-based programming approach is proposed to handle the interdependencies to obtain the projects,whose return values are multi-criteria with interval data.Finally,an illustrative example of army engineering and manufacturing development shows the feasibility and advantages of the scenario-based multi-objective programming approach.
基金教育部人文社会科学研究项目(23YJC790114,23YJCZH267)重庆市自然科学基金项目(CSTB2024NSCQ-MSX0650)+1 种基金西南大学创新研究2035先导计划项目(SWU Pilot Plan031)中央高校基本科研业务费项目(SWU-KR23003,SWU-KR22047)。
