A stochastic epidemic model with two age groups is established in this study,in which the susceptible(S),the exposed(E),the infected(I),the hospitalized(H)and the recovered(R)are involved within the total population,t...A stochastic epidemic model with two age groups is established in this study,in which the susceptible(S),the exposed(E),the infected(I),the hospitalized(H)and the recovered(R)are involved within the total population,the aging rates between two age groups are set to be constant.The existence-and-uniqueness of global positive solution is firstly showed.Then,by constructing several appropriate Lyapunov functions and using the high-dimensional Itô’s formula,the sufficient conditions for the stochastic extinction and stochastic persistence of the exposed individuals and the infected individuals are obtained.The stochastic extinction indicator and the stochastic persistence indicator are less-valued expressions compared with the basic reproduction number.Meanwhile,the main results of this study are modified into multi-age groups.Furthermore,by using the surveillance data for Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fuzhou COVID-19 epidemic is chosen to carry out the numerical simulations,which show that the age group of the population plays the vital role when studying infectious diseases.展开更多
The high porosity and tunable chemical functionality of metal-organic frameworks(MOFs)make it a promising catalyst design platform.High-throughput screening of catalytic performance is feasible since the large MOF str...The high porosity and tunable chemical functionality of metal-organic frameworks(MOFs)make it a promising catalyst design platform.High-throughput screening of catalytic performance is feasible since the large MOF structure database is available.In this study,we report a machine learning model for high-throughput screening of MOF catalysts for the CO_(2) cycloaddition reaction.The descriptors for model training were judiciously chosen according to the reaction mechanism,which leads to high accuracy up to 97%for the 75%quantile of the training set as the classification criterion.The feature contribution was further evaluated with SHAP and PDP analysis to provide a certain physical understanding.12,415 hypothetical MOF structures and 100 reported MOFs were evaluated under 100℃ and 1 bar within one day using the model,and 239 potentially efficient catalysts were discovered.Among them,MOF-76(Y)achieved the top performance experimentally among reported MOFs,in good agreement with the prediction.展开更多
The kinetic characteristics of plasma-assisted oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia are studied by using the global/fluid models hybrid solution method.Firstly,the stable products of plasma-assisted oxidative pyrolysis of a...The kinetic characteristics of plasma-assisted oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia are studied by using the global/fluid models hybrid solution method.Firstly,the stable products of plasma-assisted oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia are measured.The results show that the consumption of NH_(3)/O_(2)and the production of N_(2)/H_(2)change linearly with the increase of voltage,which indicates the decoupling of nonequilibrium molecular excitation and oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia at low temperatures.Secondly,the detailed reaction kinetics mechanism of ammonia oxidative pyrolysis stimulated by a nanosecond pulse voltage at low pressure and room temperature is established.Based on the reaction path analysis,the simplified mechanism is obtained.The detailed and simplified mechanism simulation results are compared with experimental data to verify the accuracy of the simplified mechanism.Finally,based on the simplified mechanism,the fluid model of ammonia oxidative pyrolysis stimulated by the nanosecond pulse plasma is established to study the pre-sheath/sheath behavior and the resultant consumption and formation of key species.The results show that the generation,development,and propagation of the pre-sheath have a great influence on the formation and consumption of species.The consumption of NH_(3)by the cathode pre-sheath is greater than that by the anode pre-sheath,but the opposite is true for OH and O(1S).However,within the sheath,almost all reactions do not occur.Further,by changing the parameters of nanosecond pulse power supply voltage,it is found that the electron number density,electron current density,and applied peak voltages are not the direct reasons for the structural changes of the sheath and pre-sheath.Furthermore,the discharge interval has little effect on the sheath structure and gas mixture breakdown.The research results of this paper not only help to understand the kinetic promotion of non-equilibrium excitation in the process of oxidative pyrolysis but also help to explore the influence of transport and chemical reaction kinetics on the oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia.展开更多
The significant threat of wildfires to forest ecology and biodiversity,particularly in tropical and subtropical regions,underscores the necessity for advanced predictive models amidst shifting climate patterns.There i...The significant threat of wildfires to forest ecology and biodiversity,particularly in tropical and subtropical regions,underscores the necessity for advanced predictive models amidst shifting climate patterns.There is a need to evaluate and enhance wildfire prediction methods,focusing on their application during extended periods of intense heat and drought.This study reviews various wildfire modelling approaches,including traditional physical,semi-empirical,numerical,and emerging machine learning(ML)-based models.We critically assess these models’capabilities in predicting fire susceptibility and post-ignition spread,highlighting their strengths and limitations.Our findings indicate that while traditional models provide foundational insights,they often fall short in dynamically estimating parameters and predicting ignition events.Cellular automata models,despite their potential,face challenges in data integration and computational demands.Conversely,ML models demonstrate superior efficiency and accuracy by leveraging diverse datasets,though they encounter interpretability issues.This review recommends hybrid modelling approaches that integrate multiple methods to harness their combined strengths.By incorporating data assimilation techniques with dynamic forecasting models,the predictive capabilities of ML-based predictions can be significantly enhanced.This review underscores the necessity for continued refinement of these models to ensure their reliability in real-world applications,ultimately contributing to more effective wildfire mitigation and management strategies.Future research should focus on improving hybrid models and exploring new data integration methods to advance predictive capabilities.展开更多
Purpose:Evaluating the quality of academic journal articles is a time consuming but critical task for national research evaluation exercises,appointments and promotion.It is therefore important to investigate whether ...Purpose:Evaluating the quality of academic journal articles is a time consuming but critical task for national research evaluation exercises,appointments and promotion.It is therefore important to investigate whether Large Language Models(LLMs)can play a role in this process.Design/methodology/approach:This article assesses which ChatGPT inputs(full text without tables,figures,and references;title and abstract;title only)produce better quality score estimates,and the extent to which scores are affected by ChatGPT models and system prompts.Findings:The optimal input is the article title and abstract,with average ChatGPT scores based on these(30 iterations on a dataset of 51 papers)correlating at 0.67 with human scores,the highest ever reported.ChatGPT 4o is slightly better than 3.5-turbo(0.66),and 4o-mini(0.66).Research limitations:The data is a convenience sample of the work of a single author,it only includes one field,and the scores are self-evaluations.Practical implications:The results suggest that article full texts might confuse LLM research quality evaluations,even though complex system instructions for the task are more effective than simple ones.Thus,whilst abstracts contain insufficient information for a thorough assessment of rigour,they may contain strong pointers about originality and significance.Finally,linear regression can be used to convert the model scores into the human scale scores,which is 31%more accurate than guessing.Originality/value:This is the first systematic comparison of the impact of different prompts,parameters and inputs for ChatGPT research quality evaluations.展开更多
The rate of fire spread is a key indicator for assessing forest fire risk and developing fire management plans.The Rothermel model is the most widely used fire spread model,established through laboratory experiments o...The rate of fire spread is a key indicator for assessing forest fire risk and developing fire management plans.The Rothermel model is the most widely used fire spread model,established through laboratory experiments on homogeneous fuels but has not been validated for conifer-deciduous mixed fuel.In this study,Pinus koraiensis and Quercus mongolica litter was used in a laboratory burning experiment to simulate surface fire spread in the field.The effects of fuel moisture content,mixed fuel ratio and slope on spread rate were analyzed.The optimum packing ratio,moisture-damping coefficient and slope parameters in the Rothermel model were modified using the measured spread rate which was positively correlated with slope and negatively with fuel moisture content.As the Q.mongolica load increased,the spread rate increased and was highest at a fuel ratio of 4:6.The model with modified optimal packing ratio and slope parameters has a significantly lower spread rate prediction error than the unmodified model.The spread rate prediction accuracy was significantly improved after modifying the model parameters based on spread rates from laboratory burning simulations.展开更多
Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation ...Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow.展开更多
Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations...Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations often arise from inappropriate model parameterization.Here we compared five methods for defining community-level specific leaf area(SLA)and leaf C:N across nine contrasting forest sites along the North-South Transect of Eastern China,including biomass-weighted average for the entire plant community(AP_BW)and four simplified selective sampling(biomass-weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_BW],basal area weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_AW],biomass-weighted average over all tree species[AT_BW]and basal area weighted average over all tree species[AT_AW]).We found that the default values for SLA and leaf C:N embedded in the Biome-BGC v4.2 were higher than the five computational methods produced across the nine sites,with deviations ranging from 28.0 to 73.3%.In addition,there were only slight deviations(<10%)between the whole plant community sampling(AP_BW)predicted NPP and the four simplified selective sampling methods,and no significant difference between the predictions of AT_BW and AP_BW except the Shennongjia site.The findings in this study highlights the critical importance of computational strategies for community-level parameterization in ecosystem process modelling,and will support the choice of parameterization methods.展开更多
Water effects on the mechanical properties of rocks have been extensively investigated through experiments and numerical models.However,few studies have established a comprehensive link between the microscopic mechani...Water effects on the mechanical properties of rocks have been extensively investigated through experiments and numerical models.However,few studies have established a comprehensive link between the microscopic mechanisms of water-related micro-crack and the constitutive behaviors of rocks.In this work,we shall propose an extended micromechanical-based plastic damage model for understanding weakening effect induced by the presence of water between micro-crack’s surfaces on quasi-brittle rocks,based on the Mori-Tanaka homogenization and irreversible thermodynamics framework.Regarding the physical mechanism,water strengthens micro-crack propagation,which induces damage evolution during the pre-and post-stage,and weakens the elastic effective properties of rock matrix.After proposing a special calibration procedure for the determination of model parameters based on the laboratory compression tests,the proposed micromechanical-based model is verified by comparing the model predictions to the experimental results.The model effectively captures the mechanical behaviors of quasibrittle rocks subjected to the weakening effects of water.展开更多
The elliptic azimuthal anisotropy coefficient(v_(2))of the identified particles at midrapidity(|η|<0.8)was investigated in p-Pb collisions at√s_(NN)=5.02 TeV using a multi-phase transport model(AMPT).The calculat...The elliptic azimuthal anisotropy coefficient(v_(2))of the identified particles at midrapidity(|η|<0.8)was investigated in p-Pb collisions at√s_(NN)=5.02 TeV using a multi-phase transport model(AMPT).The calculations of differential v_(2)based on the advanced flow extraction method of light flavor hadrons(pions,kaons,protons,andΛ)in small collision systems were extended to a wider transverse momentum(p_(T))range of up to 8 GeV/c for the first time.The string-melting version of the AMPT model provides a good description of the measured p_(T)-differential v_(2)of the mesons but exhibits a slight deviation from the baryon v_(2).In addition,we observed the features of mass ordering at low p_(T)and the approximate number-of-constituentquark(NCQ)scaling at intermediate p_(T).Moreover,we demonstrate that hadronic rescattering does not have a significant impact on v_(2)in p-Pb collisions for different centrality selections,whereas partonic scattering dominates in generating the elliptic anisotropy of the final particles.This study provides further insight into the origin of collective-like behavior in small collision systems and has referential value for future measurements of azimuthal anisotropy.展开更多
Optical multilayer thin film structures have been widely used in numerous photonic applications.However,existing inverse design methods have many drawbacks because they either fail to quickly adapt to different design...Optical multilayer thin film structures have been widely used in numerous photonic applications.However,existing inverse design methods have many drawbacks because they either fail to quickly adapt to different design targets,or are difficult to suit for different types of structures,e.g.,designing for different materials at each layer.These methods also cannot accommodate versatile design situations under different angles and polarizations.In addition,how to benefit practical fabrications and manufacturing has not been extensively considered yet.In this work,we introduce OptoGPT(Opto Generative Pretrained Transformer),a decoder-only transformer,to solve all these drawbacks and issues simultaneously.展开更多
The aim of this study was to evaluate the factors influencing the inactivation effect of intense pulsed light(IPL)on Aeromonas salmonicida grown on chicken meat and skin,and to further develop prediction models of ina...The aim of this study was to evaluate the factors influencing the inactivation effect of intense pulsed light(IPL)on Aeromonas salmonicida grown on chicken meat and skin,and to further develop prediction models of inactivation.In this work,chicken meat and skin inoculated with meat-borne A.salmonicida isolates were subjected to IPL treatments under different conditions.The results showed that IPL had obvious bactericidal effect in the chicken skin and thickness groups when the treatment voltage and time were 7 V combined with 5 s.In addition,the lethality curves of A.salmonicida were fitted under IPL conditions of 3.5-7.5 V.The comparison of statistical parameters revealed that the Weibull model could best fit the mortality curves and could accurately predict the mortality dynamic of A.salmonicida grown on chicken skin.And further a secondary model between the scale factor b and the treatment voltage in Weibull model was established using linear equations,which determined that the secondary model could accurately predict the inactivation of A.salmonicida.This study provides a theoretical basis for future prediction models of Aeromonas,and also provides new ideas for sterilization approaches of meat-borne Aeromonas.展开更多
The majority of the projectiles used in the hypersonic penetration study are solid flat-nosed cylindrical projectiles with a diameter of less than 20 mm.This study aims to fill the gap in the experimental and analytic...The majority of the projectiles used in the hypersonic penetration study are solid flat-nosed cylindrical projectiles with a diameter of less than 20 mm.This study aims to fill the gap in the experimental and analytical study of the evolution of the nose shape of larger hollow projectiles under hypersonic penetration.In the hypersonic penetration test,eight ogive-nose AerMet100 steel projectiles with a diameter of 40 mm were launched to hit concrete targets with impact velocities that ranged from 1351 to 1877 m/s.Severe erosion of the projectiles was observed during high-speed penetration of heterogeneous targets,and apparent localized mushrooming occurred in the front nose of recovered projectiles.By examining the damage to projectiles,a linear relationship was found between the relative length reduction rate and the initial kinetic energy of projectiles in different penetration tests.Furthermore,microscopic analysis revealed the forming mechanism of the localized mushrooming phenomenon for eroding penetration,i.e.,material spall erosion abrasion mechanism,material flow and redistribution abrasion mechanism and localized radial upsetting deformation mechanism.Finally,a model of highspeed penetration that included erosion was established on the basis of a model of the evolution of the projectile nose that considers radial upsetting;the model was validated by test data from the literature and the present study.Depending upon the impact velocity,v0,the projectile nose may behave as undistorted,radially distorted or hemispherical.Due to the effects of abrasion of the projectile and enhancement of radial upsetting on the duration and amplitude of the secondary rising segment in the pulse shape of projectile deceleration,the predicted DOP had an upper limit.展开更多
With the rapid growth of manuscript submissions,finding eligible reviewers for every submission has become a heavy task.Recommender systems are powerful tools developed in computer science and information science to d...With the rapid growth of manuscript submissions,finding eligible reviewers for every submission has become a heavy task.Recommender systems are powerful tools developed in computer science and information science to deal with this problem.However,most existing approaches resort to text mining techniques to match manuscripts with potential reviewers,which require high-quality textual information to perform well.In this paper,we propose a reviewer recommendation algorithm based on a network diffusion process on a scholar-paper multilayer network,with no requirement for textual information.The network incorporates the relationship of scholar-paper pairs,the collaboration among scholars,and the bibliographic coupling among papers.Experimental results show that our proposed algorithm outperforms other state-of-the-art recommendation methods that use graph random walk and matrix factorization and methods that use machine learning and natural language processing,with improvements of over 7.62%in recall,5.66%in hit rate,and 47.53%in ranking score.Our work sheds light on the effectiveness of multilayer network diffusion-based methods in the reviewer recommendation problem,which will help to facilitate the peer-review process and promote information retrieval research in other practical scenes.展开更多
Reactive transport modeling(RTM)is an emerging method used to address geological issues in diagenesis research.However,the extrapolation of RTM results to practical reservoir prediction is not sufficiently understood....Reactive transport modeling(RTM)is an emerging method used to address geological issues in diagenesis research.However,the extrapolation of RTM results to practical reservoir prediction is not sufficiently understood.This paper presents a case study of the Eocene Qaidam Basin that combines RTM results with petrological and mineralogical evidence.The results show that the Eocene Xiaganchaigou Formation is characterized by mixed siliciclastic-carbonate-evaporite sedimentation in a semiclosed saline lacustrine environment.Periodic evaporation and salinization processes during the syngeneticpenecontemporaneous stage gave rise to the replacive genesis of dolomites and the cyclic enrichment of dolomite in the middle-upper parts of the meter-scale depositional sequences.The successive change in mineral paragenesis from terrigenous clastics to carbonates to evaporites was reconstructed using RTM simulations.Parametric uncertainty analyses further suggest that the evaporation intensity(brine salinity)and particle size of sediments(reactive surface area)were important rate-determining factors in the dolomitization,as shown by the relatively higher reaction rates under conditions of higher brine salinity and fine-grained sediments.Combining the simulation results with measured mineralogical and reservoir physical property data indicates that the preservation of original intergranular pores and the generation of porosity via replacive dolomitization were the major formation mechanisms of the distinctive lacustrine dolomite reservoirs(widespread submicron intercrystalline micropores)in the Eocene Qaidam Basin.The results confirm that RTM can be effectively used in geological studies,can provide a better general understanding of the dolomitizing fluid-rock interactions,and can shed light on the spatiotemporal evolution of mineralogy and porosity during dolomitization and the formation of lacustrine dolomite reservoirs.展开更多
The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribut...The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.展开更多
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(61911530398,12231012)Consultancy Project by the Chinese Academy of Engineering(2022-JB-06,2023-JB-12)+3 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province of China(2021J01621)Special Projects of the Central Government Guiding Local Science and Technology Development(2021L3018)Royal Society of Edinburgh(RSE1832)Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council(EP/W522521/1).
文摘A stochastic epidemic model with two age groups is established in this study,in which the susceptible(S),the exposed(E),the infected(I),the hospitalized(H)and the recovered(R)are involved within the total population,the aging rates between two age groups are set to be constant.The existence-and-uniqueness of global positive solution is firstly showed.Then,by constructing several appropriate Lyapunov functions and using the high-dimensional Itô’s formula,the sufficient conditions for the stochastic extinction and stochastic persistence of the exposed individuals and the infected individuals are obtained.The stochastic extinction indicator and the stochastic persistence indicator are less-valued expressions compared with the basic reproduction number.Meanwhile,the main results of this study are modified into multi-age groups.Furthermore,by using the surveillance data for Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fuzhou COVID-19 epidemic is chosen to carry out the numerical simulations,which show that the age group of the population plays the vital role when studying infectious diseases.
基金financial support from the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2021YFB 3501501)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.22225803,22038001,22108007 and 22278011)+1 种基金Beijing Natural Science Foundation(No.Z230023)Beijing Science and Technology Commission(No.Z211100004321001).
文摘The high porosity and tunable chemical functionality of metal-organic frameworks(MOFs)make it a promising catalyst design platform.High-throughput screening of catalytic performance is feasible since the large MOF structure database is available.In this study,we report a machine learning model for high-throughput screening of MOF catalysts for the CO_(2) cycloaddition reaction.The descriptors for model training were judiciously chosen according to the reaction mechanism,which leads to high accuracy up to 97%for the 75%quantile of the training set as the classification criterion.The feature contribution was further evaluated with SHAP and PDP analysis to provide a certain physical understanding.12,415 hypothetical MOF structures and 100 reported MOFs were evaluated under 100℃ and 1 bar within one day using the model,and 239 potentially efficient catalysts were discovered.Among them,MOF-76(Y)achieved the top performance experimentally among reported MOFs,in good agreement with the prediction.
基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(M23JBZY00050)National Natural Science Foundation of China(22278032)。
文摘The kinetic characteristics of plasma-assisted oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia are studied by using the global/fluid models hybrid solution method.Firstly,the stable products of plasma-assisted oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia are measured.The results show that the consumption of NH_(3)/O_(2)and the production of N_(2)/H_(2)change linearly with the increase of voltage,which indicates the decoupling of nonequilibrium molecular excitation and oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia at low temperatures.Secondly,the detailed reaction kinetics mechanism of ammonia oxidative pyrolysis stimulated by a nanosecond pulse voltage at low pressure and room temperature is established.Based on the reaction path analysis,the simplified mechanism is obtained.The detailed and simplified mechanism simulation results are compared with experimental data to verify the accuracy of the simplified mechanism.Finally,based on the simplified mechanism,the fluid model of ammonia oxidative pyrolysis stimulated by the nanosecond pulse plasma is established to study the pre-sheath/sheath behavior and the resultant consumption and formation of key species.The results show that the generation,development,and propagation of the pre-sheath have a great influence on the formation and consumption of species.The consumption of NH_(3)by the cathode pre-sheath is greater than that by the anode pre-sheath,but the opposite is true for OH and O(1S).However,within the sheath,almost all reactions do not occur.Further,by changing the parameters of nanosecond pulse power supply voltage,it is found that the electron number density,electron current density,and applied peak voltages are not the direct reasons for the structural changes of the sheath and pre-sheath.Furthermore,the discharge interval has little effect on the sheath structure and gas mixture breakdown.The research results of this paper not only help to understand the kinetic promotion of non-equilibrium excitation in the process of oxidative pyrolysis but also help to explore the influence of transport and chemical reaction kinetics on the oxidative pyrolysis of ammonia.
基金funding enabled and organized by CAUL and its Member Institutions.
文摘The significant threat of wildfires to forest ecology and biodiversity,particularly in tropical and subtropical regions,underscores the necessity for advanced predictive models amidst shifting climate patterns.There is a need to evaluate and enhance wildfire prediction methods,focusing on their application during extended periods of intense heat and drought.This study reviews various wildfire modelling approaches,including traditional physical,semi-empirical,numerical,and emerging machine learning(ML)-based models.We critically assess these models’capabilities in predicting fire susceptibility and post-ignition spread,highlighting their strengths and limitations.Our findings indicate that while traditional models provide foundational insights,they often fall short in dynamically estimating parameters and predicting ignition events.Cellular automata models,despite their potential,face challenges in data integration and computational demands.Conversely,ML models demonstrate superior efficiency and accuracy by leveraging diverse datasets,though they encounter interpretability issues.This review recommends hybrid modelling approaches that integrate multiple methods to harness their combined strengths.By incorporating data assimilation techniques with dynamic forecasting models,the predictive capabilities of ML-based predictions can be significantly enhanced.This review underscores the necessity for continued refinement of these models to ensure their reliability in real-world applications,ultimately contributing to more effective wildfire mitigation and management strategies.Future research should focus on improving hybrid models and exploring new data integration methods to advance predictive capabilities.
文摘Purpose:Evaluating the quality of academic journal articles is a time consuming but critical task for national research evaluation exercises,appointments and promotion.It is therefore important to investigate whether Large Language Models(LLMs)can play a role in this process.Design/methodology/approach:This article assesses which ChatGPT inputs(full text without tables,figures,and references;title and abstract;title only)produce better quality score estimates,and the extent to which scores are affected by ChatGPT models and system prompts.Findings:The optimal input is the article title and abstract,with average ChatGPT scores based on these(30 iterations on a dataset of 51 papers)correlating at 0.67 with human scores,the highest ever reported.ChatGPT 4o is slightly better than 3.5-turbo(0.66),and 4o-mini(0.66).Research limitations:The data is a convenience sample of the work of a single author,it only includes one field,and the scores are self-evaluations.Practical implications:The results suggest that article full texts might confuse LLM research quality evaluations,even though complex system instructions for the task are more effective than simple ones.Thus,whilst abstracts contain insufficient information for a thorough assessment of rigour,they may contain strong pointers about originality and significance.Finally,linear regression can be used to convert the model scores into the human scale scores,which is 31%more accurate than guessing.Originality/value:This is the first systematic comparison of the impact of different prompts,parameters and inputs for ChatGPT research quality evaluations.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFC1511603)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2572021BA04).
文摘The rate of fire spread is a key indicator for assessing forest fire risk and developing fire management plans.The Rothermel model is the most widely used fire spread model,established through laboratory experiments on homogeneous fuels but has not been validated for conifer-deciduous mixed fuel.In this study,Pinus koraiensis and Quercus mongolica litter was used in a laboratory burning experiment to simulate surface fire spread in the field.The effects of fuel moisture content,mixed fuel ratio and slope on spread rate were analyzed.The optimum packing ratio,moisture-damping coefficient and slope parameters in the Rothermel model were modified using the measured spread rate which was positively correlated with slope and negatively with fuel moisture content.As the Q.mongolica load increased,the spread rate increased and was highest at a fuel ratio of 4:6.The model with modified optimal packing ratio and slope parameters has a significantly lower spread rate prediction error than the unmodified model.The spread rate prediction accuracy was significantly improved after modifying the model parameters based on spread rates from laboratory burning simulations.
文摘Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow.
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.31870426).
文摘Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations often arise from inappropriate model parameterization.Here we compared five methods for defining community-level specific leaf area(SLA)and leaf C:N across nine contrasting forest sites along the North-South Transect of Eastern China,including biomass-weighted average for the entire plant community(AP_BW)and four simplified selective sampling(biomass-weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_BW],basal area weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_AW],biomass-weighted average over all tree species[AT_BW]and basal area weighted average over all tree species[AT_AW]).We found that the default values for SLA and leaf C:N embedded in the Biome-BGC v4.2 were higher than the five computational methods produced across the nine sites,with deviations ranging from 28.0 to 73.3%.In addition,there were only slight deviations(<10%)between the whole plant community sampling(AP_BW)predicted NPP and the four simplified selective sampling methods,and no significant difference between the predictions of AT_BW and AP_BW except the Shennongjia site.The findings in this study highlights the critical importance of computational strategies for community-level parameterization in ecosystem process modelling,and will support the choice of parameterization methods.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42001053 and 42277147)the General Scientific Research Fund of Zhejiang Provincial Education Department(No.Y202352363)the University Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.23KJD130001)。
文摘Water effects on the mechanical properties of rocks have been extensively investigated through experiments and numerical models.However,few studies have established a comprehensive link between the microscopic mechanisms of water-related micro-crack and the constitutive behaviors of rocks.In this work,we shall propose an extended micromechanical-based plastic damage model for understanding weakening effect induced by the presence of water between micro-crack’s surfaces on quasi-brittle rocks,based on the Mori-Tanaka homogenization and irreversible thermodynamics framework.Regarding the physical mechanism,water strengthens micro-crack propagation,which induces damage evolution during the pre-and post-stage,and weakens the elastic effective properties of rock matrix.After proposing a special calibration procedure for the determination of model parameters based on the laboratory compression tests,the proposed micromechanical-based model is verified by comparing the model predictions to the experimental results.The model effectively captures the mechanical behaviors of quasibrittle rocks subjected to the weakening effects of water.
基金This work was supported by the Key Laboratory of Quark and Lepton Physics(MOE)in Central China Normal University(Nos.QLPL2022P01,QLPL202106)Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Provincial Education Department(No.Q20131603)+2 种基金National key research,development program of China(No.2018YFE0104700)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12175085)Fundamental research funds for the Central Universities(No.CCNU220N003).
文摘The elliptic azimuthal anisotropy coefficient(v_(2))of the identified particles at midrapidity(|η|<0.8)was investigated in p-Pb collisions at√s_(NN)=5.02 TeV using a multi-phase transport model(AMPT).The calculations of differential v_(2)based on the advanced flow extraction method of light flavor hadrons(pions,kaons,protons,andΛ)in small collision systems were extended to a wider transverse momentum(p_(T))range of up to 8 GeV/c for the first time.The string-melting version of the AMPT model provides a good description of the measured p_(T)-differential v_(2)of the mesons but exhibits a slight deviation from the baryon v_(2).In addition,we observed the features of mass ordering at low p_(T)and the approximate number-of-constituentquark(NCQ)scaling at intermediate p_(T).Moreover,we demonstrate that hadronic rescattering does not have a significant impact on v_(2)in p-Pb collisions for different centrality selections,whereas partonic scattering dominates in generating the elliptic anisotropy of the final particles.This study provides further insight into the origin of collective-like behavior in small collision systems and has referential value for future measurements of azimuthal anisotropy.
基金the National Science Foundation(PFI-008513 and FET-2309403)for the support of this work.
文摘Optical multilayer thin film structures have been widely used in numerous photonic applications.However,existing inverse design methods have many drawbacks because they either fail to quickly adapt to different design targets,or are difficult to suit for different types of structures,e.g.,designing for different materials at each layer.These methods also cannot accommodate versatile design situations under different angles and polarizations.In addition,how to benefit practical fabrications and manufacturing has not been extensively considered yet.In this work,we introduce OptoGPT(Opto Generative Pretrained Transformer),a decoder-only transformer,to solve all these drawbacks and issues simultaneously.
基金supported by projects funded by grants from the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province in China(BK20221515)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32172266)the Changzhou Science and Technology Support Program(CE20222002)。
文摘The aim of this study was to evaluate the factors influencing the inactivation effect of intense pulsed light(IPL)on Aeromonas salmonicida grown on chicken meat and skin,and to further develop prediction models of inactivation.In this work,chicken meat and skin inoculated with meat-borne A.salmonicida isolates were subjected to IPL treatments under different conditions.The results showed that IPL had obvious bactericidal effect in the chicken skin and thickness groups when the treatment voltage and time were 7 V combined with 5 s.In addition,the lethality curves of A.salmonicida were fitted under IPL conditions of 3.5-7.5 V.The comparison of statistical parameters revealed that the Weibull model could best fit the mortality curves and could accurately predict the mortality dynamic of A.salmonicida grown on chicken skin.And further a secondary model between the scale factor b and the treatment voltage in Weibull model was established using linear equations,which determined that the secondary model could accurately predict the inactivation of A.salmonicida.This study provides a theoretical basis for future prediction models of Aeromonas,and also provides new ideas for sterilization approaches of meat-borne Aeromonas.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12102050)the Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology(Grant No.SKLEST-ZZ-21-18).
文摘The majority of the projectiles used in the hypersonic penetration study are solid flat-nosed cylindrical projectiles with a diameter of less than 20 mm.This study aims to fill the gap in the experimental and analytical study of the evolution of the nose shape of larger hollow projectiles under hypersonic penetration.In the hypersonic penetration test,eight ogive-nose AerMet100 steel projectiles with a diameter of 40 mm were launched to hit concrete targets with impact velocities that ranged from 1351 to 1877 m/s.Severe erosion of the projectiles was observed during high-speed penetration of heterogeneous targets,and apparent localized mushrooming occurred in the front nose of recovered projectiles.By examining the damage to projectiles,a linear relationship was found between the relative length reduction rate and the initial kinetic energy of projectiles in different penetration tests.Furthermore,microscopic analysis revealed the forming mechanism of the localized mushrooming phenomenon for eroding penetration,i.e.,material spall erosion abrasion mechanism,material flow and redistribution abrasion mechanism and localized radial upsetting deformation mechanism.Finally,a model of highspeed penetration that included erosion was established on the basis of a model of the evolution of the projectile nose that considers radial upsetting;the model was validated by test data from the literature and the present study.Depending upon the impact velocity,v0,the projectile nose may behave as undistorted,radially distorted or hemispherical.Due to the effects of abrasion of the projectile and enhancement of radial upsetting on the duration and amplitude of the secondary rising segment in the pulse shape of projectile deceleration,the predicted DOP had an upper limit.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.T2293771)the New Cornerstone Science Foundation through the XPLORER PRIZE.
文摘With the rapid growth of manuscript submissions,finding eligible reviewers for every submission has become a heavy task.Recommender systems are powerful tools developed in computer science and information science to deal with this problem.However,most existing approaches resort to text mining techniques to match manuscripts with potential reviewers,which require high-quality textual information to perform well.In this paper,we propose a reviewer recommendation algorithm based on a network diffusion process on a scholar-paper multilayer network,with no requirement for textual information.The network incorporates the relationship of scholar-paper pairs,the collaboration among scholars,and the bibliographic coupling among papers.Experimental results show that our proposed algorithm outperforms other state-of-the-art recommendation methods that use graph random walk and matrix factorization and methods that use machine learning and natural language processing,with improvements of over 7.62%in recall,5.66%in hit rate,and 47.53%in ranking score.Our work sheds light on the effectiveness of multilayer network diffusion-based methods in the reviewer recommendation problem,which will help to facilitate the peer-review process and promote information retrieval research in other practical scenes.
文摘Reactive transport modeling(RTM)is an emerging method used to address geological issues in diagenesis research.However,the extrapolation of RTM results to practical reservoir prediction is not sufficiently understood.This paper presents a case study of the Eocene Qaidam Basin that combines RTM results with petrological and mineralogical evidence.The results show that the Eocene Xiaganchaigou Formation is characterized by mixed siliciclastic-carbonate-evaporite sedimentation in a semiclosed saline lacustrine environment.Periodic evaporation and salinization processes during the syngeneticpenecontemporaneous stage gave rise to the replacive genesis of dolomites and the cyclic enrichment of dolomite in the middle-upper parts of the meter-scale depositional sequences.The successive change in mineral paragenesis from terrigenous clastics to carbonates to evaporites was reconstructed using RTM simulations.Parametric uncertainty analyses further suggest that the evaporation intensity(brine salinity)and particle size of sediments(reactive surface area)were important rate-determining factors in the dolomitization,as shown by the relatively higher reaction rates under conditions of higher brine salinity and fine-grained sediments.Combining the simulation results with measured mineralogical and reservoir physical property data indicates that the preservation of original intergranular pores and the generation of porosity via replacive dolomitization were the major formation mechanisms of the distinctive lacustrine dolomite reservoirs(widespread submicron intercrystalline micropores)in the Eocene Qaidam Basin.The results confirm that RTM can be effectively used in geological studies,can provide a better general understanding of the dolomitizing fluid-rock interactions,and can shed light on the spatiotemporal evolution of mineralogy and porosity during dolomitization and the formation of lacustrine dolomite reservoirs.
文摘The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.
