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An Expert Judgment-based Prediction Tool for Developmental and R eproductive Toxicity(DART)
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作者 LI Kangning ZHENG Yuting +7 位作者 Jane ROSE WU Shengde LI Bin Vatsal MEHTA Ashley MUDD George DASTON YU Yang WANG Ying 《生态毒理学报》 北大核心 2025年第2期77-91,共15页
Developmental and reproductive toxicity(DART)endpoint entails a toxicological assessment of all developmental stages and reproductive cycles of an organism.In silico tools to predict DART will provide a method to asse... Developmental and reproductive toxicity(DART)endpoint entails a toxicological assessment of all developmental stages and reproductive cycles of an organism.In silico tools to predict DART will provide a method to assess this complex toxicity endpoint and will be valuable for screening emerging pollutants as well as for m anaging new chemicals in China.Currently,there are few published DART prediction models in China,but many related research and development projects are in progress.In 2013,WU et al.published an expert rule-based DART decision tree(DT).This DT relies on known chemical structures linked to DART to forecast DART potential of a given chemical.Within this procedure,an accurate DART data interpretation is the foundation of building and expanding the DT.This paper excerpted case studies demonstrating DART data curation and interpretation of four chemicals(including 8-hydroxyquinoline,3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol,thiacloprid,and imidacloprid)to expand the existing DART DT.Chemicals were first selected from the database of Solid Waste and Chemicals Management Center,Ministry of Ecology and Environment(MEESCC)in China.The structures of these 4 chemicals were analyzed and preliminarily grouped by chemists based on core structural features,functional groups,receptor binding property,metabolism,and possible mode of actions.Then,the DART conclusion was derived by collecting chemical information,searching,integrating,and interpreting DART data by the toxicologists.Finally,these chemicals were classified into either an existing category or a new category via integrating their chemical features,DART conclusions,and biological properties.The results showed that 8-hydroxyquinoline impacted estrous cyclicity,s exual organ weights,and embryonal development,and 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol caused central nervous system(CNS)malformations,which were added to an existing subcategory 8e(aromatic compounds with multi-halogen and nitro groups)of the DT.Thiacloprid caused dystocia and fetal skeletal malformation,and imidacloprid disrupted the endocrine system and male fertility.They both contain 2-chloro-5-methylpyridine substituted imidazolidine c yclic ring,which were expected to create a new category of neonicotinoids.The current work delineates a t ransparent process of curating toxicological data for the purpose of DART data interpretation.In the presence of sufficient related structures and DART data,the DT can be expanded by iteratively adding chemicals within the a pplicable domain of each category or subcategory.This DT can potentially serve as a tool for screening emerging pollutants and assessing new chemicals in China. 展开更多
关键词 developmental and reproductive toxicity decision tree prediction tool expert judgment new chemical management
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Method for multiple attribute decision making based on incomplete linguistic judgment matrix 被引量:4
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作者 Zhang Yao Fan Zhiping 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2008年第2期298-303,共6页
With respect to the multiple attribute decision making problems with linguistic preference relations on alternatives in the form of incomplete linguistic judgment matrix, a method is proposed to analyze the decision p... With respect to the multiple attribute decision making problems with linguistic preference relations on alternatives in the form of incomplete linguistic judgment matrix, a method is proposed to analyze the decision problem. The incomplete linguistic judgment matrix is transformed into incomplete fuzzy judgment matrix and an optimization model is developed on the basis of incomplete fuzzy judgment matrix provided by the decision maker and the decision matrix to determine attribute weights by Lagrange multiplier method. Then the overall values of all alternatives are calculated to rank them. A numerical example is given to illustrate the feasibility and practicality of the proposed method. 展开更多
关键词 multiple attribute decision making incomplete linguistic judgment matrix decision matrix optimization model alternative ranking.
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Ranking method for the reciprocal judgment matrix based on the unascertained three-valued judgments 被引量:4
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作者 Wan Yucheng Ma Baoguo Sheng Zhaohan 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2006年第1期115-120,共6页
The ranking problem is studied when the pairwise comparisons values are unoertain in the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method of constructing the judgment matrix is presented when the pairwise comparisons va... The ranking problem is studied when the pairwise comparisons values are unoertain in the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method of constructing the judgment matrix is presented when the pairwise comparisons values are denoted by the unascertained three-valued reciprocal scales. By turning the reciprocal judgment matrix into attribute judgment matrix, the method to check the consistency of the pairwise comparisons judgment matrix and the calculation method of weighting coefficients are given. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. 展开更多
关键词 AHP UNCERTAINTY unascertained rational number attribute judgment matrix.
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Quantitative Estimation of Experts’Judgments on Petroleum Exploration
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作者 Zhang Zaixu University of Petroleum, Dongying, Shandong 257062, P. R. China 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 1997年第4期61-66,共6页
A new method in making judgment matrix is proposed based on a basic value of “importance” and a relative measure level of “importance”. Factors affecting petroleum exploration are analyzed and Experts’ judgment m... A new method in making judgment matrix is proposed based on a basic value of “importance” and a relative measure level of “importance”. Factors affecting petroleum exploration are analyzed and Experts’ judgment matrix on a geologic formation is given. Expected value of each factor is computed and the volume of recoverable oil is estimated. 展开更多
关键词 judgment matrix Analytic hierarchy process Petroleum exploration Quantitative estimation Expected value.
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Air Target Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Threat-Judgment Model
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作者 Tong Youtang & Wang JianmingDalian University of Technology, Dalian 110624, P. R. China Dalian Naval Academy, Dalian 116018, P. R. China 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2003年第1期41-46,共6页
Threat-judgment is a complicated fuzzy inference problem. Up to now no relevant unified theory and measur-ing standard have been developed. It is very difficult to establish a threat-judgment model with high reliabili... Threat-judgment is a complicated fuzzy inference problem. Up to now no relevant unified theory and measur-ing standard have been developed. It is very difficult to establish a threat-judgment model with high reliability in the airdefense system for the naval warships. Air target threat level judgment is an important component in naval warship com-bat command decision-making systems. According to the threat level judgment of air targets during the air defense of sin-gle naval warship, a fuzzy pattern recognition model for judging the threat from air targets is established. Then an algo-rithm for identifying the parameters in the model is presented. The model has an adaptive feature and can dynamicallyupdate its parameters according to the state change of the attacking targets and the environment. The method presentedhere can be used for the air defense system threat judgment in the naval warships. 展开更多
关键词 Air targets Threat judgment Fuzzy pattern recognition Fuzzy sets
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An Approach for Integrating Quantitative Decision Model with Qualitative Judgment
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作者 Zhu Shijing(Institute of Systems Engineerin,Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, P. R. China)Wang Xianjia(Department of Hydraulic Power Engineering,Wuhan University of Hydraulic and Electric Engineering, 430072, P. R. C 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 1997年第2期45-52,共8页
In this paper, decision making in complex environment is considered and an approach integrating quantitative decision model with qualitative judgment is proposed. The concept of belief degree for quantitative decision... In this paper, decision making in complex environment is considered and an approach integrating quantitative decision model with qualitative judgment is proposed. The concept of belief degree for quantitative decision model in a complex environment is presented. The integration in formulation and reasoning of quantitative model with qualitative judgment is studied. The combination of various belief degree generated by quantitative model and qualitative judgment is discussed. A decision rule of tradeoff between optimality and belief degree of optimality is proposed. 展开更多
关键词 Decision theory Artificial intelligence Quantitative model Qualitative judgment.
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Method of assessing political skill for personnel selection:Development and validation of a situational judgment test
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作者 Qingxiong Weng Ying Zhao 《中国科学技术大学学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第11期9-19,8,66,共13页
Political skill is a critical interpersonal competency.However,the self-reported political skill scale is unsuitable for personnel selection beacuse it may lead to socially desirable responses,thereby compromising the... Political skill is a critical interpersonal competency.However,the self-reported political skill scale is unsuitable for personnel selection beacuse it may lead to socially desirable responses,thereby compromising the authenticity of the test scores.Consequently,the absence of a valid assessment method limits the application of political skill in selection con-texts.In this study,we applied the situational judgment test(SJT)method to measure political skill and conducted two sub-studies to evaluate the reliability and validity of the situational judgment test of political skill(SJT-PS).Study 1 focused on the development and initial testing of the SJT-PS.The results demonstrated that the SJT-PS possessed strong structural validity and reliability.Study 2 aimed to assess the criterion-related and incremental validity of the SJT-PS.To evaluate the predictive validity of the SJT-PS in selection contexts,we first compared the correlations between the SJT-PS and self-reported political skill with social desirability.Subsequently,we selected team-member exchange(TMX)and workplace popularity as criteria.The results indicated that the SJT-PS was less affected by social desirability,while self-reported political skill exhibited a significant positive correlation with social desirability.Additionally,the SJT-PS positively pre-dicted TMX and workplace popularity and demonstrated incremental validity over the self-reported political skill scale. 展开更多
关键词 political skill situational judgment test self-reported measurement team-member exchange workplace popularity
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On Positioning and Selection of Mediation and Judgment
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作者 Sun Jian 《学术界》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第10期273-278,共6页
The relationship between mediation and the judgment directly affect the practical effects of judicial power operation,and have important influence on judicial practice. Mediation and judgment have been contradicting e... The relationship between mediation and the judgment directly affect the practical effects of judicial power operation,and have important influence on judicial practice. Mediation and judgment have been contradicting each other for a long time,which is the result of the social situation,national policies and other factors intertwined. Practically the alienation of the relationship between mediation and judgment,such as phenomenon of attaching more importance to mediation and less importance to judgment,arbitrary application of mediation,as well as failure to give full play to the due function of mediation and judgment,have deep social reasons,and lead to certain degree of harm. Both mediation and judgment are important means to effectively resolve disputes,with functional complementation of mediation and judgment. Meanwhile judgment serves as an important guarantee for mediation to function. Therefore,to realize scientific selection based on combination of mediation and judgment,it must adhere to classification management over applicable scope of mediation and judgment,application conditions of mediation and judgment,timing of applying mediation and judgment,and supporting mechanismfor scientific selection of mediation and judgment. 展开更多
关键词 调解 判决 定位 科学选择 应用程序 功能互补 分类管理 支持机制
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A Vicious Script in HTML Detection Method Using Judgment Matrix Approach
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作者 李志勇 张昊 +1 位作者 陶然 杜华 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 SCIE EI CAS 2009年第1期76-80,共5页
A vicious script detection method based on statistic is proposed by analyzing the vicious script in the hypertext markup language(HTML).We utilize the judgment matrix approach which is one of the subjective weighting ... A vicious script detection method based on statistic is proposed by analyzing the vicious script in the hypertext markup language(HTML).We utilize the judgment matrix approach which is one of the subjective weighting approaches to set the different weights for various statistic methods.Then we make use of the weighted geometric method to perfect the statistic results.Experimental results show the validity of this method. 展开更多
关键词 判断矩阵 HTML 脚本 恶性 检测 超文本标记语言 统计分析 加权方法
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人工智能辅助教学的边界:高校教师的专业判断与价值坚守 被引量:2
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作者 唐江桥 戴珑珑 《黑龙江高教研究》 北大核心 2026年第1期13-18,共6页
人工智能辅助教学显著提升了教学效率和资源适配性,但是技术的工具理性与教育的价值理性之间的张力也随之凸显。从技术、伦理、教育规律等三个维度解析了人工智能辅助教学的边界。高校教师的专业判断能力是调和工具理性与价值理性张力... 人工智能辅助教学显著提升了教学效率和资源适配性,但是技术的工具理性与教育的价值理性之间的张力也随之凸显。从技术、伦理、教育规律等三个维度解析了人工智能辅助教学的边界。高校教师的专业判断能力是调和工具理性与价值理性张力的核心枢纽,它包括技术理解能力、数据辩证思维、教学重构能力、伦理预见能力。专业判断能力可通过技术培训、实践共同体、制度保障协同提升。高校教师的价值坚守是抵御技术异化的精神堡垒。教师应坚守以人为本的核心理念、立德树人的教育使命、促进公平的教育实践、人文关怀的情感连接等核心价值。价值坚守应在教学内容设计、教学方法创新、教师示范、制度建设等环节践行。 展开更多
关键词 人工智能辅助教学 高校教师 专业判断 价值坚守
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幼儿园教育监管责任界定的困境及其化解策略 被引量:1
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作者 蔡迎旗 张媛聆 《河北师范大学学报(教育科学版)》 北大核心 2026年第2期131-140,共10页
幼儿园教育监管责任的科学界定是保障儿童权益、完善幼儿园安全治理体系的首要前提。为探究幼儿园教育监管责任界定的困境及其形成机制,以489份司法判决书为样本,运用扎根理论构建幼儿园责任界定的多维影响机制模型,进而揭示当前幼儿园... 幼儿园教育监管责任的科学界定是保障儿童权益、完善幼儿园安全治理体系的首要前提。为探究幼儿园教育监管责任界定的困境及其形成机制,以489份司法判决书为样本,运用扎根理论构建幼儿园责任界定的多维影响机制模型,进而揭示当前幼儿园教育监管责任界定的内在逻辑。研究发现,幼儿园教育监管责任界定的困境既源于责任产生阶段中风险防范机制的有限性、伤害产生的复杂性及事件应对的局限性,又植根于责任界定过程中举证的证成困境、损害评估的维度差异及过错判断的价值选择,也来自于责任承担中法律适用的不确定性。建议通过强化家园协作、加强幼儿园治理能力、优化保险机制与完善法律体系等措施,化解责任界定各阶段存在的主要问题,系统提升幼儿园安全治理的法治化水平。 展开更多
关键词 幼儿园 教育监管 责任界定 裁判文书 家园协作
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改进熵权和灰关联模型的装备能力评估
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作者 王博 周文雅 +2 位作者 柯肇捷 宗飞 刘君 《系统工程与电子技术》 北大核心 2026年第2期524-534,共11页
针对传统信息熵法和灰关联模型对装备试验数据量和质量的要求过高、难以保证装备性能准确评估的问题,提出一种改进的熵权法和灰关联模型。该方法采用Bayes Bootstrap方法对小样本试验数据进行参数估计,计算出装备指标参数的点估计值,并... 针对传统信息熵法和灰关联模型对装备试验数据量和质量的要求过高、难以保证装备性能准确评估的问题,提出一种改进的熵权法和灰关联模型。该方法采用Bayes Bootstrap方法对小样本试验数据进行参数估计,计算出装备指标参数的点估计值,并构造判断比较矩阵;利用信息熵法结合装备评估指标的参数估计值完成指标客观权重的确定;通过考察装备指标参数点估计值与正、负理想解的位置关系,求解每个装备指标点估计值的正、负关联系数并聚合得出评估结果。运用该方法对侦察卫星系统探测能力进行评估,并与传统信息熵法和灰关联模型进行对比,证明了改进熵权和灰关联模型的科学性和有效性,为其在评估方法中的运用提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 信息熵 参数估计 判断比较矩阵 理想解 灰关联
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艺术:一个关于练习的问题
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作者 孙斌 张艳芬 《哲学分析》 北大核心 2026年第2期109-120,198,共13页
对于艺术的寻找无法借助知性所给出的普遍规则,而须借助康德所说的不能被教导而只能练习的判断力。由此而来的一种方案是,从寻找艺术的普遍本质转向寻找艺术实例之间的相似性。在这个以维特根斯坦的家族相似为基本方法的研究过程中,必... 对于艺术的寻找无法借助知性所给出的普遍规则,而须借助康德所说的不能被教导而只能练习的判断力。由此而来的一种方案是,从寻找艺术的普遍本质转向寻找艺术实例之间的相似性。在这个以维特根斯坦的家族相似为基本方法的研究过程中,必须防止各种各样变形的名称指称理论的出现,并通过语言游戏将理解意义与执行规则区分开来。丹托从关系出发来考虑艺术可以避免由归纳得出的普遍规则,但是关系以及制度要从它们由以得到建立和实施的生活形式来分析,唯其如此才能避免关系和制度重新蜕化为单纯的规则。 展开更多
关键词 艺术 知性 规则 判断力 练习
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矩形顶管顶进过程中的背土效应
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作者 刘浩 金大龙 +2 位作者 袁大军 龚子邦 刘少华 《中南大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2026年第2期708-717,共10页
针对“背土效应”问题,本文提出了一种新的背土破坏判定方法。首先,结合实际工程中的沉降监测数据,确定受背土效应影响的土体范围,并将其沿顶进方向划定为左右两侧为向上延伸的梯形区域,前缘边界为圆弧形滑裂面;然后,基于四项合理假定,... 针对“背土效应”问题,本文提出了一种新的背土破坏判定方法。首先,结合实际工程中的沉降监测数据,确定受背土效应影响的土体范围,并将其沿顶进方向划定为左右两侧为向上延伸的梯形区域,前缘边界为圆弧形滑裂面;然后,基于四项合理假定,简化背土体模型,结合矩形顶管掘进过程中的三维背土破坏力学模型,推导出破坏判定公式;第三,通过实际工程算例,开展参数敏感性分析,揭示了背土效应与顶管顶进长度、埋置深度以及土体物理力学参数之间的相互关系,给出了发生临界破坏时的摩擦因数;最后,分析了在不同地质条件下,为防止背土破坏而需满足的最小覆土厚度要求。研究结果表明:管土临界摩擦因数随管节埋深、地层黏聚力以及内摩擦角增大而增大,随顶进长度增大而减小;背土破坏中存在“临界黏聚力”,当黏聚力大于12.5 kPa时,顶管最浅埋深随顶进距离增加而减小,当黏聚力小于12.5 kPa时,则呈相反规律;无黏聚力地层中,背土体的稳定性由内摩擦角与顶进长度共同控制,且最浅埋深对顶进距离高度敏感;当顶进距离超过20 m后,最浅埋深显著增大,需通过增大覆土厚度或有效降低管土摩擦力以避免整体背土破坏。 展开更多
关键词 矩形顶管 地表隆沉 背土效应 判定方法 最浅埋深
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基于多域情报驱动的虚拟货币犯罪资金流链上溯源研究
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作者 谢玲 高勇 《情报杂志》 北大核心 2026年第5期89-96,113,共9页
[目的]虚拟货币的去中心化匿名交易成为犯罪团伙将犯罪收入上链流转“由黑变白”的内在动力机制。对此,需利用数字社会泛在联结的跨域情报信息整合侦查资源,破解涉案虚拟货币流转路径复杂、交易出口多、流入交易“黑盒”等追踪难题。[方... [目的]虚拟货币的去中心化匿名交易成为犯罪团伙将犯罪收入上链流转“由黑变白”的内在动力机制。对此,需利用数字社会泛在联结的跨域情报信息整合侦查资源,破解涉案虚拟货币流转路径复杂、交易出口多、流入交易“黑盒”等追踪难题。[方法]面对犯罪团伙利用跨链、混币、智能合约技术分割涉案资金的多重逻辑,需绕开被反追踪技术隐蔽控制的资金端口,基于引流、通讯、网络等链式犯罪发生环节,通过资金数据与非资金数据的相互补足和交叉验证精准定位匿名交易中的人员信息和涉案资产。[结果/结论]实战追踪要利用多域情报开展涉案地址“聚合”与“成链”研判,通过增加犯罪行为模式嵌入资金流转关系图谱的黏性,强化交易地址与犯罪情报的匹配度与信息增值空间,完成链上地址账户与链下真实身份的匹配锁定。 展开更多
关键词 虚拟货币犯罪 情报分析 涉案地址 数据研判 资金流溯源 网络画像
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康德器乐美学要旨论析——基于对达尔豪斯“两个判断”的批判
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作者 王文卓 《南京艺术学院学报(音乐与表演版)》 北大核心 2026年第2期76-80,I0003,共6页
达尔豪斯提出,应从趣味判断和艺术判断两个相区别的层面去理解康德的器乐美学。本文认为,这一路径有理论局限。将“两个判断”引入批判哲学的整体语境加以分析,可成为我们把握康德器乐美学要旨的较佳路径。鉴赏判断是先天综合判断,康德... 达尔豪斯提出,应从趣味判断和艺术判断两个相区别的层面去理解康德的器乐美学。本文认为,这一路径有理论局限。将“两个判断”引入批判哲学的整体语境加以分析,可成为我们把握康德器乐美学要旨的较佳路径。鉴赏判断是先天综合判断,康德必然将一种先验的纯粹鉴赏力与经验质料综合起来,而当他把无标题幻想曲作为自由美的典型时,这个选择本身却含有了他的否定性内涵。纯粹器乐鉴赏立足于自由美取向,应用性器乐鉴赏立足于依附美取向。无论何种取向,其本质都是想象力与知性的自由游戏。“人是目的”是康德美学的最高设定,内在合目的性即着眼于这一最终目标。器乐鉴赏中的无目的性指向主体对乐音形式的鉴赏,而合目的性则指向藉乐音体验领悟人之自由本体。揭示器乐鉴赏的道德形而上学意涵,是我们充分理解康德器乐美学的重要一环。 展开更多
关键词 康德器乐美学 两个判断 先天综合判断 知性 合目的性
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ESG信息鉴证及其保证程度与非职业投资者投资判断——一项实验研究
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作者 张继勋 卿水娟 +1 位作者 韩梦桥 苗靖钰 《审计研究》 北大核心 2026年第2期41-52,共12页
随着企业ESG信息的披露,一些企业开始进行ESG信息的鉴证,而且ESG信息鉴证结论存在着不同的保证程度,这些都可能会影响投资者的行为。本文运用心理学理论和实验研究方法,分析和检验了ESG信息鉴证及鉴证保证程度对非职业投资者投资判断的... 随着企业ESG信息的披露,一些企业开始进行ESG信息的鉴证,而且ESG信息鉴证结论存在着不同的保证程度,这些都可能会影响投资者的行为。本文运用心理学理论和实验研究方法,分析和检验了ESG信息鉴证及鉴证保证程度对非职业投资者投资判断的影响。研究发现,相比于ESG信息没有经过鉴证,在ESG信息经过鉴证的情况下,非职业投资者判断的投资吸引力更高;与ESG信息鉴证结论为有限保证相比,在ESG信息鉴证结论为合理保证的情况下,非职业投资者判断的投资吸引力更高。研究还发现了ESG信息鉴证影响非职业投资者投资判断的具体机制。本文对企业、投资者和准则制定机构都具有比较重要的意义,同时丰富和扩展了ESG和鉴证相关的文献。 展开更多
关键词 ESG信息鉴证 保证程度 可持续发展 投资判断
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外国法院判决承认与执行中管辖权审查的法律适用问题
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作者 孙南申 胡蓉 《国际商务研究》 北大核心 2026年第1期72-80,共9页
国际民商事争议的管辖权不仅指原审国法院审理案件争议的直接管辖权,也包括被请求国法院在判决承认执行阶段审查原审国法院是否具备合理管辖权的间接管辖权。直接管辖权的实质是原审国具有审理案件的管辖基础,间接管辖权关注的是原审国... 国际民商事争议的管辖权不仅指原审国法院审理案件争议的直接管辖权,也包括被请求国法院在判决承认执行阶段审查原审国法院是否具备合理管辖权的间接管辖权。直接管辖权的实质是原审国具有审理案件的管辖基础,间接管辖权关注的是原审国管辖权的行使是否正当与合理。间接管辖权审查的法律适用涉及两方面问题,一是确定间接管辖权的准据法,二是确定间接管辖权的审查标准,这两者相互关联。实践中对此的适用与确定模式主要包括适用被请求国法律、适用请求国法律、结合适用被请求国与请求国法律、适用司法协助条约规定等。《2019年海牙判决公约》规定的间接管辖规则体现的是管辖法院与案件及其被告之间的实质联系,并作为判断管辖基础合理性的依据与标准。针对以上背景与问题,本文从间接管辖审查的法律适用关系与功能、法律适用模式与原则、审查标准的适用、中国间接管辖审查依据与标准等4个方面进行理论与实证分析,并得出相应观点与结论。 展开更多
关键词 外国法院判决 承认与执行 间接管辖审查 法律适用 审查标准
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1938-1939年国民党高层对长沙战局的研判与因应
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作者 刘长林 胡丞嗣 《安徽史学》 北大核心 2026年第1期63-75,共13页
1938年10月,广州、武汉沦陷后,日军第11军继续追击南撤的中国军队,并营造直取长沙的假象,实则攻占岳阳后即转为警备态势。国民党高层在仓促启动保卫长沙部署的同时,也做了焚城准备,并在岳阳沦陷的恐慌中失控实施,酿成“文夕大火”惨案... 1938年10月,广州、武汉沦陷后,日军第11军继续追击南撤的中国军队,并营造直取长沙的假象,实则攻占岳阳后即转为警备态势。国民党高层在仓促启动保卫长沙部署的同时,也做了焚城准备,并在岳阳沦陷的恐慌中失控实施,酿成“文夕大火”惨案。大火过后,湘北前线形成对峙局面,日军也暂未将长沙列为攻占目标。其间,国民党高层虽由于缺乏确切情报,接连误判日军进攻长沙时间,却仍将日军“必攻长沙”作为战略预设,在第二期作战方案指导下,围绕“争取外线”与“后退决战”的战术原则,制定了诱敌深入后于长沙近郊实施反攻的作战计划,并据此逐步完成防线部署与战场准备。1939年9月,日军在遭遇国民党军春夏攻势袭扰后,先发制人在湘北寻歼第九战区“主力”,但仍无意攻占长沙,国民党军依照既定策略阻滞日军后,因长沙未失,遂将此役视为大捷。第一次长沙会战是双方战略战术碰撞下达成的阶段性平衡,但均未能在战略层面取得决定性突破,这也就为后续几次长沙会战的爆发埋下了伏笔。 展开更多
关键词 第一次长沙会战 第九战区 蒋介石 战略研判 因应
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集资诈骗罪非法占有目的的裁判规则——基于人民法院入库案例的实证分析
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作者 刘宪权 王志亮 《浙江工商大学学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期55-64,共10页
在司法解释单项推定模式基础上,人民法院入库案例采取要素组合的方式,情境化地细化了金融诈骗罪非法占有目的的裁判规则。总结而言,这些要素主要是集资宣传、集资款去向以及资金归还能力,个案当中的要素组合方式又各不相同。学理上需要... 在司法解释单项推定模式基础上,人民法院入库案例采取要素组合的方式,情境化地细化了金融诈骗罪非法占有目的的裁判规则。总结而言,这些要素主要是集资宣传、集资款去向以及资金归还能力,个案当中的要素组合方式又各不相同。学理上需要立足于对裁判规律的总结,构筑一种分步式认定的模式。是否存在真实的生产经营以及是否将所集资金用于生产经营,是判断非法占有目的的基本要素。应当在此基础上判断集资人的还款能力,最后判断其归还意愿。非法占有目的是一种积极追求的故意,不应包括放任的故意,是一种规范性而非事实性认定。对帮助他人非法集资者的共同非法占有目的的认定,需要重点审查其所处角色、认知能力和认知程度。 展开更多
关键词 集资诈骗罪 非法占有目的 人民法院入库案例 裁判规则 故意
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