As the air combat environment becomes more complicated and changeable, accurate threat assessment of air target has a significant impact on air defense operations. This paper proposes an improved generalized intuition...As the air combat environment becomes more complicated and changeable, accurate threat assessment of air target has a significant impact on air defense operations. This paper proposes an improved generalized intuitionistic fuzzy soft set (GIFSS) method for dynamic assessment of air target threat. Firstly, the threat assessment index is reasonably determined by analyzing the typical characteristics of air targets. Secondly, after the GIFSS at different time is obtained, the index weight is determined by the intuitionistic fuzzy set entropy and the relative entropy theory. Then, the inverse Poisson distribution method is used to determine the weight of time series, and then the time-weighted GIFSS is obtained. Finally, threat assessment of five air targets is carried out by using the improved GIFSS (I-GIFSS) and comparison methods. The validity and superiority of the proposed method are verified by calculation and comparison.展开更多
针对目前海洋能区划研究中存在的计算复杂、耗时长和成本高等问题,本研究基于改进的多准则决策(Multiple criteria decision making,MCDM)方法和人工神经网络(Artificial neural network,ANN),提出了一种风浪联合开发区划智能模型。为...针对目前海洋能区划研究中存在的计算复杂、耗时长和成本高等问题,本研究基于改进的多准则决策(Multiple criteria decision making,MCDM)方法和人工神经网络(Artificial neural network,ANN),提出了一种风浪联合开发区划智能模型。为降低专家的主观偏差,应用基于层级的模糊权重评估(Fuzzy level based weight assessment,FLBWA)法来计算各评价指标权重;继而结合改进的Borda-全乘比例多目标优化(Borda-multi-objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis plus full multiplicative form,Borda-MULTIMOORA)法计算开发适宜性指数,从而能够更加准确、高效地得到评价结果;之后,基于灰狼优化算法的反向传播(Grey wolf optimizer with back propagation,GWO-BP)神经网络构建并训练智能模型,将适宜性分析转化为自动化、高效化和智能化的过程;最后,以山东省风浪联合开发区划为例验证该模型的可行性和合理性。根据实例验证,该模型可以实现风浪联合开发区划的智能化,为相关领域的研究和政府规划提供参考。展开更多
地下储气库(以下简称储气库)老井封堵施工,因井况复杂、动态交互性强,存在井筒窜气及封堵失效等高风险隐患。现有封堵井施工风险评价方法多依赖定性分析,难以量化关键因素间的非线性影响,且传统决策试验和评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法存在...地下储气库(以下简称储气库)老井封堵施工,因井况复杂、动态交互性强,存在井筒窜气及封堵失效等高风险隐患。现有封堵井施工风险评价方法多依赖定性分析,难以量化关键因素间的非线性影响,且传统决策试验和评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法存在主观偏差问题。为此,基于模糊集理论改进DEMATEL算法,通过量化专家判断与引入原因度—中心度权重优化机制,构建了从系统级事故到不安全控制行为(UCA)的动态因果路径;然后结合概率阈值判定与多级风险传递分析,实现关键风险因素的定量排序与演化机理解析,最后建立了一种融合模糊逻辑与系统理论过程分析(Systematic Theory Process Analysis, STPA)的多尺度风险评价模型。研究结果表明:(1)融合改进的模糊DEMATEL与系统理论过程分析(STPA)方法能有效量化关键风险因素,通过引入原因度和中心度优化权重计算,显著降低了主观偏差,改进后方法的皮尔逊积矩(Pearson)相关系数优于传统模糊DEMATEL;(2)改进后的多级分析能对多个相互影响的风险因素进行多尺度的风险评价,确定不同风险因素的优化权重、相互间的因果关系、整体概率分布和传递路径;(3)多级风险传递路径分析揭示了不安全控制行为动态演化机制。结论认为,案例验证识别结果与施工现场实际风险高度吻合,该方法可以有效识别关键风险因素,且能够克服专家评价的模糊性与不确定性,为储气库老井封堵施工系统精准风险管控提供了理论和技术支撑。展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51779263)
文摘As the air combat environment becomes more complicated and changeable, accurate threat assessment of air target has a significant impact on air defense operations. This paper proposes an improved generalized intuitionistic fuzzy soft set (GIFSS) method for dynamic assessment of air target threat. Firstly, the threat assessment index is reasonably determined by analyzing the typical characteristics of air targets. Secondly, after the GIFSS at different time is obtained, the index weight is determined by the intuitionistic fuzzy set entropy and the relative entropy theory. Then, the inverse Poisson distribution method is used to determine the weight of time series, and then the time-weighted GIFSS is obtained. Finally, threat assessment of five air targets is carried out by using the improved GIFSS (I-GIFSS) and comparison methods. The validity and superiority of the proposed method are verified by calculation and comparison.
文摘针对目前海洋能区划研究中存在的计算复杂、耗时长和成本高等问题,本研究基于改进的多准则决策(Multiple criteria decision making,MCDM)方法和人工神经网络(Artificial neural network,ANN),提出了一种风浪联合开发区划智能模型。为降低专家的主观偏差,应用基于层级的模糊权重评估(Fuzzy level based weight assessment,FLBWA)法来计算各评价指标权重;继而结合改进的Borda-全乘比例多目标优化(Borda-multi-objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis plus full multiplicative form,Borda-MULTIMOORA)法计算开发适宜性指数,从而能够更加准确、高效地得到评价结果;之后,基于灰狼优化算法的反向传播(Grey wolf optimizer with back propagation,GWO-BP)神经网络构建并训练智能模型,将适宜性分析转化为自动化、高效化和智能化的过程;最后,以山东省风浪联合开发区划为例验证该模型的可行性和合理性。根据实例验证,该模型可以实现风浪联合开发区划的智能化,为相关领域的研究和政府规划提供参考。
文摘地下储气库(以下简称储气库)老井封堵施工,因井况复杂、动态交互性强,存在井筒窜气及封堵失效等高风险隐患。现有封堵井施工风险评价方法多依赖定性分析,难以量化关键因素间的非线性影响,且传统决策试验和评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法存在主观偏差问题。为此,基于模糊集理论改进DEMATEL算法,通过量化专家判断与引入原因度—中心度权重优化机制,构建了从系统级事故到不安全控制行为(UCA)的动态因果路径;然后结合概率阈值判定与多级风险传递分析,实现关键风险因素的定量排序与演化机理解析,最后建立了一种融合模糊逻辑与系统理论过程分析(Systematic Theory Process Analysis, STPA)的多尺度风险评价模型。研究结果表明:(1)融合改进的模糊DEMATEL与系统理论过程分析(STPA)方法能有效量化关键风险因素,通过引入原因度和中心度优化权重计算,显著降低了主观偏差,改进后方法的皮尔逊积矩(Pearson)相关系数优于传统模糊DEMATEL;(2)改进后的多级分析能对多个相互影响的风险因素进行多尺度的风险评价,确定不同风险因素的优化权重、相互间的因果关系、整体概率分布和传递路径;(3)多级风险传递路径分析揭示了不安全控制行为动态演化机制。结论认为,案例验证识别结果与施工现场实际风险高度吻合,该方法可以有效识别关键风险因素,且能够克服专家评价的模糊性与不确定性,为储气库老井封堵施工系统精准风险管控提供了理论和技术支撑。
