The umbilical cable is a vital component of subsea production systems that provide power,chemical agents,control signals et al.,and its requirement for reliability is exceedingly high.However,as the umbilical cable is...The umbilical cable is a vital component of subsea production systems that provide power,chemical agents,control signals et al.,and its requirement for reliability is exceedingly high.However,as the umbilical cable is a composite structure comprising multiple functional units,the reliability analysis of such cables involves numerous parameters that can impact calculation efficiency.In this paper,the reliability analysis of a new kind of umbilical cable with carbon fiber rod under tension is analyzed.The global dynamic analytical model is first established to determine the maximum tension load,then the local analytical model of umbilical cable including each unit are constructed by finite element method(FEM).Based on the mechanical analytical model,the reliability of umbilical cable under tension load is studied using response surface method(RSM)and Monte Carlo method.During the calculation process,a new tangent plane sampling method to calculate the response surface function(RSF)is proposed in this paper,which could make sampling points faster come close to the RSF curve,and it is proved that the calculation efficiency increases about 33%comparing with traditional method.展开更多
The stochastic boundary element method(SBEM)is developed in this paper for 3D problems with body forces and reliability analysis of engineering structures.The integral equations of SBEM are established by the approach...The stochastic boundary element method(SBEM)is developed in this paper for 3D problems with body forces and reliability analysis of engineering structures.The integral equations of SBEM are established by the approach of partial derivation with respect to stochastic variables,considering the yield limit,rotation speeds and material density to be the fundamental stochastic variables.Through analyzing a numerical example and a turbo-disk of an aeroengine,the results show that the method developed is successful.展开更多
For a nonlinear limit state function, the first-order reliability method(FORM) may cause large errors in the computation of not only the reliability index or failure probability but also the reliability sensitivity. I...For a nonlinear limit state function, the first-order reliability method(FORM) may cause large errors in the computation of not only the reliability index or failure probability but also the reliability sensitivity. In order to obtain more the accurate results of the reliability sensitivity analysis, a number of hyperplanes are built near the design point by first-order Tayler series expansion, which replace the known nonlinear limit state hypersurface, and an equivalent computational method is utilized to construct an equivalent hyperplane of the obtained hyperplanes. And the reliability sensitivities can be estimated more accurately by the derived equations based on the equivalent hyperplane. An example shows that the method is effective and feasible.展开更多
The interaction and its variation between magnetic grains in two kinds of magnetic recording tapes are investigated by first-order reversal curves （FORC） and the 5M method. The composition and microstructure of the ...The interaction and its variation between magnetic grains in two kinds of magnetic recording tapes are investigated by first-order reversal curves （FORC） and the 5M method. The composition and microstructure of the samples are characterised by x-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscope. The FORC diagram can provide more accurate information of the interaction and its variation, but the 5M curves cannot. The positive interaction field and the large variation of the interaction field have opposite effects on the δM curve.展开更多
In order to solve the problem of reliability modeling and the analysis of complex systems with multiple closed-loop feedbacks,a new reliability analysis method for repairable systems with multiple closed-loop feedback...In order to solve the problem of reliability modeling and the analysis of complex systems with multiple closed-loop feedbacks,a new reliability analysis method for repairable systems with multiple closed-loop feedbacks is proposed based on the goal-oriented(GO)methodology.Firstly,the basic theories and advantages of GO method are introduced.Secondly,a type-24B multiple closed-loop feedback structure operator is proposed through GO method with its operation formula given,which expands the types of GO method operators and the application scope of their reliability analysis.Finally,taking a certain type of diesel engine fuel supply system an example,the quantitative and qualitative analysis is carried out through GO method,Monte Carlo simulation as well as FTA respectively.The availability results verify the availability of the proposed type-24B operator in the reliability analysis of multiple closed-loop feedback systems.The qualitative analysis results indicate the accuracy and usability of the GO method as a qualitative analysis method.展开更多
With the increasing utilization of liquefied natural gas(LNG)as a marine fuel,the safety and reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations have become vital concerns.Human factors are crucial to the successful e...With the increasing utilization of liquefied natural gas(LNG)as a marine fuel,the safety and reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations have become vital concerns.Human factors are crucial to the successful execution of these operations.However,predicting human reliability in such complex scenarios remains challenging.This paper focuses on the prediction of human reliability analysis(HRA)for shorebased LNG bunkering operations on tanker ships to address the aforementioned gap.Practical approaches to predicting HRA under the success likelihood index method(SLIM)and an improved Z-numbers approach are both adopted in this paper.SLIM provides a powerful tool to calculate human error,while the improved Z-numbers can address uncertainty and improve the reliability of qualitative expert judgments.Results show that the reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations is 0.861.In addition to its robust theoretical contribution,this research provides substantial practical contributions to LNG ship owners,ship superintendents,safety inspectors,and shore-based and ship crew for enhancing safety at the operational level and efficiency of shore-based LNG bunkering operations.展开更多
HL-RF(Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler)法在处理高非线性结构功能函数时会出现振荡、不收敛的问题。可变容差法能够有效解决上述问题,但该方法的反射点选取缺乏方向引导性。针对此,该论文提出基于权重分析改进反射基点的可变容差...HL-RF(Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler)法在处理高非线性结构功能函数时会出现振荡、不收敛的问题。可变容差法能够有效解决上述问题,但该方法的反射点选取缺乏方向引导性。针对此,该论文提出基于权重分析改进反射基点的可变容差法。该方法先计算非最差点到标准正态空间原点的距离,并增大距离原点更近的点的权重,由此增强反射基点的方向引导性,促使迭代点能更快靠近失效点。通过数值算例验证,本研究提出的方法能够有效解决反射点缺乏方向引导性问题,并且在求解速度上具有显著优势。展开更多
A new reliability-based multidisciplinary design optimization （RBMDO） framework is proposed by combining the single-loop-based reliability analysis （SLBRA） method with multidisciplinary feasible （MDF） method. Th...A new reliability-based multidisciplinary design optimization （RBMDO） framework is proposed by combining the single-loop-based reliability analysis （SLBRA） method with multidisciplinary feasible （MDF） method. The Kriging approximate model with updating is introduced to reduce the computational cost of MDF caused by the complex structure. The computational efficiency is remarkably improved as the lack of iterative process during reliability analysis. Special attention is paid to a turbine blade design optimization by adopting the proposed method. Results show that the method is much more efficient than the commonly used double-loop based RBMDO method. It is feasible and efficient to apply the method to the engineering design.展开更多
Caisson breakwaters are mainly constructed in deep waters to protect an area against waves.These breakwaters are con-ventionally designed based on the concept of the safety factor.However,the wave loads and resistance...Caisson breakwaters are mainly constructed in deep waters to protect an area against waves.These breakwaters are con-ventionally designed based on the concept of the safety factor.However,the wave loads and resistance of structures have epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Furthermore,sliding failure is one of the most important failure modes of caisson breakwaters.In most previous studies,for assessment purposes,uncertainties,such as wave and wave period variation,were ignored.Therefore,in this study,Bayesian reliability analysis is implemented to assess the failure probability of the sliding of Tombak port breakwater in the Persian Gulf.The mean and standard deviations were taken as random variables to consider dismissed uncertainties.For this purpose,the frst-order reliability method(FORM)and the frst principal curvature cor-rection in FORM are used to calculate the reliability index.The performances of these methods are verifed by importance sampling through Monte Carlo simulation(MCS).In addition,the reliability index sensitivities of each random variable are calculated to evaluate the importance of diferent random variables while calculating the caisson sliding.The results show that the reliability index is most sensitive to the coefcients of friction,wave height,and caisson weight(or concrete density).The sensitivity of the failure probability of each of the random variables and their uncertainties are calculated by the derivative method.Finally,the Bayesian regression is implemented to predict the statistical properties of breakwater sliding with non-informative priors,which are compared to Goda’s formulation,used in breakwater design standards.The analysis shows that the model posterior for the sliding of a caisson breakwater has a mean and standard deviation of 0.039 and 0.022,respectively.A normal quantile analysis and residual analysis are also performed to evaluate the correctness of the model responses.展开更多
The reliability analysis, based on the reliability index method, of two dimensional slopes is generalized by taking Sarma′s acceleration as the performance function. That is to say, a general expression of the perfo...The reliability analysis, based on the reliability index method, of two dimensional slopes is generalized by taking Sarma′s acceleration as the performance function. That is to say, a general expression of the performance function is given under various kinds of slice methods, even under various shapes of slice partition, beyond the traditional vertical slice method. A simple example shows explicitly the relationship of four commonly used slice methods in the slope reliability analysis. It is also found that the results of the reliability analysis are basically consistent with those of the stability analysis based on Sarma′s method.展开更多
目的根据“基于共识的健康测量工具选择准则(consensus-based standards for the selection of health measurement instruments,COSMIN)”系统评价癌症患者自我管理测量工具的方法学质量及心理测量学属性,为专业人员选择高质量的评估...目的根据“基于共识的健康测量工具选择准则(consensus-based standards for the selection of health measurement instruments,COSMIN)”系统评价癌症患者自我管理测量工具的方法学质量及心理测量学属性,为专业人员选择高质量的评估工具提供可靠依据。方法在PubMed、EMBASE(Ovid)、CINAHL(EBSCO)、Web of Science、中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台、维普中文科技期刊全文数据库、中国生物医学文献数据库中进行了关于癌症患者自我管理测量工具的中英文研究文献进行全面检索,检索时限为2007年1月1日—2023年9月1日。由2名研究者按照COSMIN准则独立进行信息提取、质量评价、证据整合,并由研究团队进行讨论和汇总。采用描述性分析方法对研究结果进行分析。结果共纳入24项关于癌症患者自我管理测量工具的研究。其中,中文研究12项、英文研究12项。所有研究均未报告反应度,22项研究未对测量误差进行描述;15项研究未描述假设检验;1项研究未报告内容效度;21项研究进行了探索性/验证性因子分析;23项研究计算了各维度内部一致性,14项研究报告了稳定性;证据质量均低。结论癌症患者自我管理测量工具仍处于初步开发阶段,大部分工具的测量学属性质量尚可,但报告质量仍欠规范。展开更多
基金Financial support for this research was provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.52222111)。
文摘The umbilical cable is a vital component of subsea production systems that provide power,chemical agents,control signals et al.,and its requirement for reliability is exceedingly high.However,as the umbilical cable is a composite structure comprising multiple functional units,the reliability analysis of such cables involves numerous parameters that can impact calculation efficiency.In this paper,the reliability analysis of a new kind of umbilical cable with carbon fiber rod under tension is analyzed.The global dynamic analytical model is first established to determine the maximum tension load,then the local analytical model of umbilical cable including each unit are constructed by finite element method(FEM).Based on the mechanical analytical model,the reliability of umbilical cable under tension load is studied using response surface method(RSM)and Monte Carlo method.During the calculation process,a new tangent plane sampling method to calculate the response surface function(RSF)is proposed in this paper,which could make sampling points faster come close to the RSF curve,and it is proved that the calculation efficiency increases about 33%comparing with traditional method.
文摘The stochastic boundary element method(SBEM)is developed in this paper for 3D problems with body forces and reliability analysis of engineering structures.The integral equations of SBEM are established by the approach of partial derivation with respect to stochastic variables,considering the yield limit,rotation speeds and material density to be the fundamental stochastic variables.Through analyzing a numerical example and a turbo-disk of an aeroengine,the results show that the method developed is successful.
文摘For a nonlinear limit state function, the first-order reliability method(FORM) may cause large errors in the computation of not only the reliability index or failure probability but also the reliability sensitivity. In order to obtain more the accurate results of the reliability sensitivity analysis, a number of hyperplanes are built near the design point by first-order Tayler series expansion, which replace the known nonlinear limit state hypersurface, and an equivalent computational method is utilized to construct an equivalent hyperplane of the obtained hyperplanes. And the reliability sensitivities can be estimated more accurately by the derived equations based on the equivalent hyperplane. An example shows that the method is effective and feasible.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 50672008 and 50971023)Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (Grant No. 20090006120019)
文摘The interaction and its variation between magnetic grains in two kinds of magnetic recording tapes are investigated by first-order reversal curves （FORC） and the 5M method. The composition and microstructure of the samples are characterised by x-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscope. The FORC diagram can provide more accurate information of the interaction and its variation, but the 5M curves cannot. The positive interaction field and the large variation of the interaction field have opposite effects on the δM curve.
基金supported by the Special Support Project of SASTIND and Technologyof SASTIND(No.JSZL2019XXXB001)。
文摘In order to solve the problem of reliability modeling and the analysis of complex systems with multiple closed-loop feedbacks,a new reliability analysis method for repairable systems with multiple closed-loop feedbacks is proposed based on the goal-oriented(GO)methodology.Firstly,the basic theories and advantages of GO method are introduced.Secondly,a type-24B multiple closed-loop feedback structure operator is proposed through GO method with its operation formula given,which expands the types of GO method operators and the application scope of their reliability analysis.Finally,taking a certain type of diesel engine fuel supply system an example,the quantitative and qualitative analysis is carried out through GO method,Monte Carlo simulation as well as FTA respectively.The availability results verify the availability of the proposed type-24B operator in the reliability analysis of multiple closed-loop feedback systems.The qualitative analysis results indicate the accuracy and usability of the GO method as a qualitative analysis method.
文摘With the increasing utilization of liquefied natural gas(LNG)as a marine fuel,the safety and reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations have become vital concerns.Human factors are crucial to the successful execution of these operations.However,predicting human reliability in such complex scenarios remains challenging.This paper focuses on the prediction of human reliability analysis(HRA)for shorebased LNG bunkering operations on tanker ships to address the aforementioned gap.Practical approaches to predicting HRA under the success likelihood index method(SLIM)and an improved Z-numbers approach are both adopted in this paper.SLIM provides a powerful tool to calculate human error,while the improved Z-numbers can address uncertainty and improve the reliability of qualitative expert judgments.Results show that the reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations is 0.861.In addition to its robust theoretical contribution,this research provides substantial practical contributions to LNG ship owners,ship superintendents,safety inspectors,and shore-based and ship crew for enhancing safety at the operational level and efficiency of shore-based LNG bunkering operations.
文摘HL-RF(Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler)法在处理高非线性结构功能函数时会出现振荡、不收敛的问题。可变容差法能够有效解决上述问题,但该方法的反射点选取缺乏方向引导性。针对此,该论文提出基于权重分析改进反射基点的可变容差法。该方法先计算非最差点到标准正态空间原点的距离,并增大距离原点更近的点的权重,由此增强反射基点的方向引导性,促使迭代点能更快靠近失效点。通过数值算例验证,本研究提出的方法能够有效解决反射点缺乏方向引导性问题,并且在求解速度上具有显著优势。
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China("863" Program) (2009AA04Z418, 2007AA04Z404)the National "111" Project(B07050)~~
文摘A new reliability-based multidisciplinary design optimization （RBMDO） framework is proposed by combining the single-loop-based reliability analysis （SLBRA） method with multidisciplinary feasible （MDF） method. The Kriging approximate model with updating is introduced to reduce the computational cost of MDF caused by the complex structure. The computational efficiency is remarkably improved as the lack of iterative process during reliability analysis. Special attention is paid to a turbine blade design optimization by adopting the proposed method. Results show that the method is much more efficient than the commonly used double-loop based RBMDO method. It is feasible and efficient to apply the method to the engineering design.
文摘Caisson breakwaters are mainly constructed in deep waters to protect an area against waves.These breakwaters are con-ventionally designed based on the concept of the safety factor.However,the wave loads and resistance of structures have epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Furthermore,sliding failure is one of the most important failure modes of caisson breakwaters.In most previous studies,for assessment purposes,uncertainties,such as wave and wave period variation,were ignored.Therefore,in this study,Bayesian reliability analysis is implemented to assess the failure probability of the sliding of Tombak port breakwater in the Persian Gulf.The mean and standard deviations were taken as random variables to consider dismissed uncertainties.For this purpose,the frst-order reliability method(FORM)and the frst principal curvature cor-rection in FORM are used to calculate the reliability index.The performances of these methods are verifed by importance sampling through Monte Carlo simulation(MCS).In addition,the reliability index sensitivities of each random variable are calculated to evaluate the importance of diferent random variables while calculating the caisson sliding.The results show that the reliability index is most sensitive to the coefcients of friction,wave height,and caisson weight(or concrete density).The sensitivity of the failure probability of each of the random variables and their uncertainties are calculated by the derivative method.Finally,the Bayesian regression is implemented to predict the statistical properties of breakwater sliding with non-informative priors,which are compared to Goda’s formulation,used in breakwater design standards.The analysis shows that the model posterior for the sliding of a caisson breakwater has a mean and standard deviation of 0.039 and 0.022,respectively.A normal quantile analysis and residual analysis are also performed to evaluate the correctness of the model responses.
文摘The reliability analysis, based on the reliability index method, of two dimensional slopes is generalized by taking Sarma′s acceleration as the performance function. That is to say, a general expression of the performance function is given under various kinds of slice methods, even under various shapes of slice partition, beyond the traditional vertical slice method. A simple example shows explicitly the relationship of four commonly used slice methods in the slope reliability analysis. It is also found that the results of the reliability analysis are basically consistent with those of the stability analysis based on Sarma′s method.
文摘目的根据“基于共识的健康测量工具选择准则(consensus-based standards for the selection of health measurement instruments,COSMIN)”系统评价癌症患者自我管理测量工具的方法学质量及心理测量学属性,为专业人员选择高质量的评估工具提供可靠依据。方法在PubMed、EMBASE(Ovid)、CINAHL(EBSCO)、Web of Science、中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台、维普中文科技期刊全文数据库、中国生物医学文献数据库中进行了关于癌症患者自我管理测量工具的中英文研究文献进行全面检索,检索时限为2007年1月1日—2023年9月1日。由2名研究者按照COSMIN准则独立进行信息提取、质量评价、证据整合,并由研究团队进行讨论和汇总。采用描述性分析方法对研究结果进行分析。结果共纳入24项关于癌症患者自我管理测量工具的研究。其中,中文研究12项、英文研究12项。所有研究均未报告反应度,22项研究未对测量误差进行描述;15项研究未描述假设检验;1项研究未报告内容效度;21项研究进行了探索性/验证性因子分析;23项研究计算了各维度内部一致性,14项研究报告了稳定性;证据质量均低。结论癌症患者自我管理测量工具仍处于初步开发阶段,大部分工具的测量学属性质量尚可,但报告质量仍欠规范。
