This study examines the systemic risk caused by major events in the international energy market(IEM)and proposes a management strategy to mitigate it. Using the tail-event driven network(TENET)method, this study const...This study examines the systemic risk caused by major events in the international energy market(IEM)and proposes a management strategy to mitigate it. Using the tail-event driven network(TENET)method, this study constructed a tail-risk spillover network(TRSN) of IEM and simulated the dynamic spillover tail-risk process through the cascading failure mechanism. The study found that renewable energy markets contributed more to systemic risk during the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19pandemic, while fossil energy markets played a larger role during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study identifies systemically important markets(SM) and critical tail-risk spillover paths as potential sources of systemic risk. The research confirms that cutting off the IEM risk spillover path can greatly reduce systemic risk and the influence of SM. This study offers insights into the management of systemic risk in IEM and provides policy recommendations to reduce the impact of shock events.展开更多
The structural changes brought about by shale oil revolution have inspired this paper of which the aim is to analyze the potential asymmetries related to the determinants of crude oil production in the USA.Thus,using ...The structural changes brought about by shale oil revolution have inspired this paper of which the aim is to analyze the potential asymmetries related to the determinants of crude oil production in the USA.Thus,using a Markov-switching dynamic regression model in which parameters change when oil production moves from one regime to the other,it is found that for both oil production and oil relative importance,the regime that was dominant during the 1980s and the early 1990s when oil production in the USA was substantially high is the same regime that has once again become dominant in the decade corresponding to the shale oil revolution.Furthermore,the study reveals the existence of asymmetries in the relationship between US crude oil production and both manufacturing production and the consumer price index.Asymmetries are also found in the relationship between the relative importance US crude oil and manufacturing production.Finally,it is found that the intercept and the variance parameter also vary from one regime to the other,thus justifying the use of regime-dependent models.展开更多
Guided by President Xi Jinping's key speech about energy revolution— "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation"-the Chinese oil and gas industry continued to accelerate its pace of reform in 2016.China has ...Guided by President Xi Jinping's key speech about energy revolution— "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation"-the Chinese oil and gas industry continued to accelerate its pace of reform in 2016.China has deepened its supply-side structural reforms,prevented and resolved the problem of excess production capacity,increased the effective supply of clean energy such as natural gas,and formed an energy innovation system.It has pushed forward the reform of pricing mechanisms with significant adjustments in the pricing mechanisms of oil products,pipeline transportation,gas storage and gas used for fertilizer production.It has also accelerated market access reform and encouraged various investors to enter into the fields of exploration & production,pipeline transportation and crude oil imports.China has sped up the legislative process of environmental protection to promote green and low-carbon development.It has accelerated oil & gas industry institutional reform,with some provinces initiating the pilot reform of oil and gas.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(71974001,72374001)National Social Science Foundation of China(22ZDA112,19BTJ014)+3 种基金the Social Science Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China(21YJAZH081)Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation(2108085Y24)the University Social Science Research Project of Anhui Province(2022AH020048,SK2020A0051)the Anhui University of Finance and Economics Graduate Research Innovation Funds(ACYC2021390)。
文摘This study examines the systemic risk caused by major events in the international energy market(IEM)and proposes a management strategy to mitigate it. Using the tail-event driven network(TENET)method, this study constructed a tail-risk spillover network(TRSN) of IEM and simulated the dynamic spillover tail-risk process through the cascading failure mechanism. The study found that renewable energy markets contributed more to systemic risk during the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19pandemic, while fossil energy markets played a larger role during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study identifies systemically important markets(SM) and critical tail-risk spillover paths as potential sources of systemic risk. The research confirms that cutting off the IEM risk spillover path can greatly reduce systemic risk and the influence of SM. This study offers insights into the management of systemic risk in IEM and provides policy recommendations to reduce the impact of shock events.
文摘The structural changes brought about by shale oil revolution have inspired this paper of which the aim is to analyze the potential asymmetries related to the determinants of crude oil production in the USA.Thus,using a Markov-switching dynamic regression model in which parameters change when oil production moves from one regime to the other,it is found that for both oil production and oil relative importance,the regime that was dominant during the 1980s and the early 1990s when oil production in the USA was substantially high is the same regime that has once again become dominant in the decade corresponding to the shale oil revolution.Furthermore,the study reveals the existence of asymmetries in the relationship between US crude oil production and both manufacturing production and the consumer price index.Asymmetries are also found in the relationship between the relative importance US crude oil and manufacturing production.Finally,it is found that the intercept and the variance parameter also vary from one regime to the other,thus justifying the use of regime-dependent models.
文摘Guided by President Xi Jinping's key speech about energy revolution— "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation"-the Chinese oil and gas industry continued to accelerate its pace of reform in 2016.China has deepened its supply-side structural reforms,prevented and resolved the problem of excess production capacity,increased the effective supply of clean energy such as natural gas,and formed an energy innovation system.It has pushed forward the reform of pricing mechanisms with significant adjustments in the pricing mechanisms of oil products,pipeline transportation,gas storage and gas used for fertilizer production.It has also accelerated market access reform and encouraged various investors to enter into the fields of exploration & production,pipeline transportation and crude oil imports.China has sped up the legislative process of environmental protection to promote green and low-carbon development.It has accelerated oil & gas industry institutional reform,with some provinces initiating the pilot reform of oil and gas.
