Various perspectives in uncertainty are briefly summarized in this paper, and the classification of uncertainties is discussed. The descriptions of different classes of uncertainty are also presented. Furthermore, a r...Various perspectives in uncertainty are briefly summarized in this paper, and the classification of uncertainties is discussed. The descriptions of different classes of uncertainty are also presented. Furthermore, a risk representation model for decision-making analysis is provided.展开更多
An eigenvector method for ranking alternatives whose measurements are given as vague values is provided. Firstly, a positive matrix is constructed which is defined as evaluation information matrix （EIM）. Based on fo...An eigenvector method for ranking alternatives whose measurements are given as vague values is provided. Firstly, a positive matrix is constructed which is defined as evaluation information matrix （EIM）. Based on four assumptions for evaluating alternatives, a ranking eigenvector is defined. And then it is proved, based on positive matrix theory, that the EIM＇s eigenvector corresponding to the maximal eigenvalue is the ranking vector. For alternatives whose characteristics are presented by vague sets, the proposed techniques can evaluate the degree of suitability to which an alternative satisfies the decision-maker＇ s requirement efficiently.展开更多
Rapid changes in land-use in the Combretum–Terminalia woodlands of northwestern Ethiopia are mainly due to the increases in commercial farming and immigration.We used integrated ecological and social data collection ...Rapid changes in land-use in the Combretum–Terminalia woodlands of northwestern Ethiopia are mainly due to the increases in commercial farming and immigration.We used integrated ecological and social data collection techniques,including subdivision of the vegetation zone,vegetation survey,focus group discussions and key informant interviews,to identify genecological zones and set criteria for selection of viable populations of Boswellia papyrifera(Del.)Hochst in Ethiopia for conservation.Interviews of senior experts were supported with a rating method and involved 43 respondents and focused on identifying and weighting criteria and indicators of selection in a participatory way to prioritize populations for conservation.Using mean annual rainfall data,we reclassified the Combretum–Terminalia woodland vegetation region into three moisture zones(wet,moist and dry),and designated them as genecological zones for B.papyrifera conservation.A total of 35 woody species were identified at Lemlem Terara site in Metema district,and the Shannon diversity index and evenness were 2.01 and of 0.62,respectively.There were 405 adult trees,and 10 saplings and3314 seedlings per ha.The trees were medium-sized with overall mean diameter at breast height(dbh) of 16.9(±9.5)cm.Seedling recruitment was poor due to grazing,crop production and fire incidences.Through a multi-criteria decision analysis,five criteria and 20 quantitative indicators were identified and weighted to prioritize populations for conservation.These criteria in their descending order of importance are(1) forest ecosystem health and vitality,(2)forest cover and population structure of B.papyrifera,(3)productive function of the forest,(4) biological diversity in the forest,and(5) socioeconomic benefits of the forest to communities.Multivariate tests in the general linear model revealed significant differences among researchers and nonresearchers in rating the criteria and indicators,but not among foresters and nonforesters.Hence,participatory multi-criteria decision analysis should involve people from various institutions to rectify decisions on conservation of the species.Careful evaluation of the investment policy environment and engaging those government bodies that are responsible to allocate the dry forests for commercial farming is recommended before the proposed criteria are applied to select populations for conservation,thus ensuring subsequent use of the outcomes of such exercises and better reconciling conservation and agricultural production increment goals.展开更多
Receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve and the area under the curve(AUC)value are often used to illustrate the diagnostic ability of binary classifiers.However,both ROC and AUC focus on high accuracy in theory,w...Receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve and the area under the curve(AUC)value are often used to illustrate the diagnostic ability of binary classifiers.However,both ROC and AUC focus on high accuracy in theory,which may not be effective for practical applications.In addition,it is difficult to judge which one is better when the ROC curves are intersect and the AUC values are equal.Decision curve analysis(DCA)methods improve ROC by incorporating accuracy and consequences.However,similar to ROC,DCA requires a quantitative indicator to objectively determine which one is better when DCA curves intersect.A DCA-based statistical indicator named maximum net benefit(MNB)is constructed for evaluating clinical treatment regimens rather than just accuracy as in ROC and AUC.As a simple and effective statistical indicator,the construction process of MNB is given theoretically.Moreover,the MNB can still provide effective identification when the AUC values are equal,which is proved by theory.Furthermore,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed MNB are verified by gene selection and classifier performance comparison on actual data.展开更多
文摘Various perspectives in uncertainty are briefly summarized in this paper, and the classification of uncertainties is discussed. The descriptions of different classes of uncertainty are also presented. Furthermore, a risk representation model for decision-making analysis is provided.
基金Sponsored by the Basic Research Foundation of Beijing Institute of Technology(BIT-UBF-20070842009)
文摘An eigenvector method for ranking alternatives whose measurements are given as vague values is provided. Firstly, a positive matrix is constructed which is defined as evaluation information matrix （EIM）. Based on four assumptions for evaluating alternatives, a ranking eigenvector is defined. And then it is proved, based on positive matrix theory, that the EIM＇s eigenvector corresponding to the maximal eigenvalue is the ranking vector. For alternatives whose characteristics are presented by vague sets, the proposed techniques can evaluate the degree of suitability to which an alternative satisfies the decision-maker＇ s requirement efficiently.
基金financed by CIFOR through its Community Forestry Project in Ethiopia funded by the Austrian Development Agency(Project No.2008/03)
文摘Rapid changes in land-use in the Combretum–Terminalia woodlands of northwestern Ethiopia are mainly due to the increases in commercial farming and immigration.We used integrated ecological and social data collection techniques,including subdivision of the vegetation zone,vegetation survey,focus group discussions and key informant interviews,to identify genecological zones and set criteria for selection of viable populations of Boswellia papyrifera(Del.)Hochst in Ethiopia for conservation.Interviews of senior experts were supported with a rating method and involved 43 respondents and focused on identifying and weighting criteria and indicators of selection in a participatory way to prioritize populations for conservation.Using mean annual rainfall data,we reclassified the Combretum–Terminalia woodland vegetation region into three moisture zones(wet,moist and dry),and designated them as genecological zones for B.papyrifera conservation.A total of 35 woody species were identified at Lemlem Terara site in Metema district,and the Shannon diversity index and evenness were 2.01 and of 0.62,respectively.There were 405 adult trees,and 10 saplings and3314 seedlings per ha.The trees were medium-sized with overall mean diameter at breast height(dbh) of 16.9(±9.5)cm.Seedling recruitment was poor due to grazing,crop production and fire incidences.Through a multi-criteria decision analysis,five criteria and 20 quantitative indicators were identified and weighted to prioritize populations for conservation.These criteria in their descending order of importance are(1) forest ecosystem health and vitality,(2)forest cover and population structure of B.papyrifera,(3)productive function of the forest,(4) biological diversity in the forest,and(5) socioeconomic benefits of the forest to communities.Multivariate tests in the general linear model revealed significant differences among researchers and nonresearchers in rating the criteria and indicators,but not among foresters and nonforesters.Hence,participatory multi-criteria decision analysis should involve people from various institutions to rectify decisions on conservation of the species.Careful evaluation of the investment policy environment and engaging those government bodies that are responsible to allocate the dry forests for commercial farming is recommended before the proposed criteria are applied to select populations for conservation,thus ensuring subsequent use of the outcomes of such exercises and better reconciling conservation and agricultural production increment goals.
基金Support by Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province(Grant No.222300420417)Kaifeng Science and Technology Project(Grant No.2103004).
文摘Receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve and the area under the curve(AUC)value are often used to illustrate the diagnostic ability of binary classifiers.However,both ROC and AUC focus on high accuracy in theory,which may not be effective for practical applications.In addition,it is difficult to judge which one is better when the ROC curves are intersect and the AUC values are equal.Decision curve analysis(DCA)methods improve ROC by incorporating accuracy and consequences.However,similar to ROC,DCA requires a quantitative indicator to objectively determine which one is better when DCA curves intersect.A DCA-based statistical indicator named maximum net benefit(MNB)is constructed for evaluating clinical treatment regimens rather than just accuracy as in ROC and AUC.As a simple and effective statistical indicator,the construction process of MNB is given theoretically.Moreover,the MNB can still provide effective identification when the AUC values are equal,which is proved by theory.Furthermore,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed MNB are verified by gene selection and classifier performance comparison on actual data.
