In order to improve prediction accuracy of the grey prediction model and forecast China energy consumption and production in a short term, this paper proposes a novel com- prehensively optimized GM（1,1） model, also ...In order to improve prediction accuracy of the grey prediction model and forecast China energy consumption and production in a short term, this paper proposes a novel com- prehensively optimized GM（1,1） model, also named COGM（1,1）, based on the grey modeling mechanism. First, the relationship of the background value formula and its whitenization equation is analyzed and a new method optimizing background values is proposed to eliminate systemic errors in the modeling process. Second, the solving process of the new model is derived. For parameter estimation, a set of auxiliary parameters are used to change grey equation＇s form. Then, original parameters are re- stored by an equations system. After solving the whitenization equation, initial value in time response function is established by least errors criteria. Finally, a numerical case and comparison with other grey prediction models are made to testify the new model＇s effectiveness, and the computational results show that the COGM（1,1） model has a better property and achieves higher precision. The new model is used to forecast China energy con- sumption and production, and the ability of energy self-sufficiency is further analyzed. Results indicate that gaps between consump- tion and production in future are predicted to decline.展开更多
Nondominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ) is well known for engine optimization problem. Artificial neural networks(ANNs) followed by multi-objective optimization including a NSGA-Ⅱ and strength pareto evolu...Nondominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ) is well known for engine optimization problem. Artificial neural networks(ANNs) followed by multi-objective optimization including a NSGA-Ⅱ and strength pareto evolutionary algorithm(SPEA2) were used to optimize the operating parameters of a compression ignition(CI) heavy-duty diesel engine. First, a multi-layer perception(MLP) network was used for the ANN modeling and the back propagation algorithm was utilized as training algorithm. Then, two different multi-objective evolutionary algorithms were implemented to determine the optimal engine parameters. The objective of the present study is to decide which algorithm is preferable in terms of performance in engine emission and fuel consumption optimization problem.展开更多
Carbon emissions mainly result from energy consumption. Carbon emissions inevitably will increase to some extent with economic expansion and rising energy consumption. We introduce a gray theory of quantitative analys...Carbon emissions mainly result from energy consumption. Carbon emissions inevitably will increase to some extent with economic expansion and rising energy consumption. We introduce a gray theory of quantitative analysis of the energy consumption of residential buildings in Chongqing,China,on the impact of carbon emission factors. Three impacts are analyzed,namely per capita residential housing area,domestic water consumption and the rate of air conditioner ownership per 100 urban households. The gray prediction model established using the Chongqing carbon emission-residential building energy consumption forecast model is sufficiently accurate to achieve a measure of feasibility and applicability.展开更多
A hierarchical structural decomposition analysis(SDA) model has been developed based on process-level input-output(I-O) tables to analyze the drivers of energy consumption changes in an integrated steel plant during 2...A hierarchical structural decomposition analysis(SDA) model has been developed based on process-level input-output(I-O) tables to analyze the drivers of energy consumption changes in an integrated steel plant during 2011-2013. By combining the principle of hierarchical decomposition into D&L method, a hierarchical decomposition model for multilevel SDA is obtained. The developed hierarchical IO-SDA model would provide consistent results and need less computation effort compared with the traditional SDA model. The decomposition results of the steel plant suggest that the technology improvement and reduced steel final demand are two major reasons for declined total energy consumption. The technical improvements of blast furnaces, basic oxygen furnaces, the power plant and the by-products utilization level have contributed mostly in reducing energy consumption. A major retrofit of ancillary process units and solving fuel substitution problem in the sinter plant and blast furnace are important for further energy saving. Besides the empirical results, this work also discussed that why and how hierarchical SDA can be applied in a process-level decomposition analysis of aggregated indicators.展开更多
Due to the nonlinearity and nonstationary of hydropower market data, a novel hybrid learning paradigm is proposed to predict hydropower consumption, by incorporating firefly algorithm （FA） into least square support ...Due to the nonlinearity and nonstationary of hydropower market data, a novel hybrid learning paradigm is proposed to predict hydropower consumption, by incorporating firefly algorithm （FA） into least square support vector regression （LSSVR）, i.e., FA-based LSSVR model. In the novel model, the powerful and effective artificial intelligence （AI） technique, i.e., LSSVR, is employed to forecast hydropower consumption. Furthermore, a promising AI optimization tool, i.e., FA, is espe- cially introduced to address the crucial but difficult task of parameters determination in LSSVR （e.g., hyper and kernel function parameters）. With the Chinese hydropower consumption as sample data, the empirical study has statistically confirmed the superiority of the novel FA-based LSSVR model to other benchmark models （including existing popular traditional econometric models, AI models and similar hybrid LSSVRs with other popular parameter searching tools）~ in terms of level and direc- tional accuracy. The empirical results also imply that the hybrid FA-based LSSVR learning paradigm with powerful forecasting tool and parameters optimization method can be employed as an effective forecasting tool for not only hydropower consumption but also other complex data.展开更多
Considering the factors affecting the increasing rate of power consumption, the BP neural network structure and the neural network forecasting model of the increasing rate of power consumption were established. Immune...Considering the factors affecting the increasing rate of power consumption, the BP neural network structure and the neural network forecasting model of the increasing rate of power consumption were established. Immune genetic algorithm was applied to optimizing the weight from input layer to hidden layer, from hidden layer to output layer, and the threshold value of neuron nodes in hidden and output layers. Finally, training the related data of the increasing rate of power consumption from 1980 to 2000 in China, a nonlinear network model between the increasing rate of power consumption and influencing factors was obtained. The model was adopted to forecasting the increasing rate of power consumption from 2001 to 2005, and the average absolute error ratio of forecasting results is 13.521 8%. Compared with the ordinary neural network optimized by genetic algorithm, the results show that this method has better forecasting accuracy and stability for forecasting the increasing rate of power consumption.展开更多
A comprehensive assessing method based on the principle of the gray system theory and gray relational grade analysis was put forward to optimize water consumption forecasting models. The method provides a better accur...A comprehensive assessing method based on the principle of the gray system theory and gray relational grade analysis was put forward to optimize water consumption forecasting models. The method provides a better accuracy for the assessment and the optimal selection of the water consumption forecasting models. The results show that the forecasting model built on this comprehensive assessing method presents better self-adaptability and accuracy in forecasting.展开更多
Ventilation is an effective solution for improving indoor air quality and reducing airborne transmission.Buildings need sufficient ventilation to maintain a low infection risk but also need to avoid an excessive venti...Ventilation is an effective solution for improving indoor air quality and reducing airborne transmission.Buildings need sufficient ventilation to maintain a low infection risk but also need to avoid an excessive ventilation rate,which may lead to high energy consumption.The Wells-Riley(WR)model is widely used to predict infection risk and control the ventilation rate.However,few studies compared the non-steady-state(NSS)and steady-state(SS)WR models that are used for ventilation control.To fill in this research gap,this study investigates the effects of the mechanical ventilation control strategies based on NSS/SS WR models on the required ventilation rates to prevent airborne transmission and related energy consumption.The modified NSS/SS WR models were proposed by considering many parameters that were ignored before,such as the initial quantum concentration.Based on the NSS/SS WR models,two new ventilation control strategies were proposed.A real building in Canada is used as the case study.The results indicate that under a high initial quantum concentration(e.g.,0.3 q/m^(3))and no protective measures,SS WR control underestimates the required ventilation rate.The ventilation energy consumption of NSS control is up to 2.5 times as high as that of the SS control.展开更多
Nowadays, rapid technological progress influences the dependability of equipments and also causes rapid obsolescence. The mechatronic and electronic equipment components are mostly affected by obsolescence. A new chal...Nowadays, rapid technological progress influences the dependability of equipments and also causes rapid obsolescence. The mechatronic and electronic equipment components are mostly affected by obsolescence. A new challenger unit possesses identical functionalities, but with higher performances. This work aims to find the optimal number of components which should be replaced by new-type units, under budgetary constraints. In this work, the new challenger unit is characterized by lower energy consumption and the optimization steps are based on genetic algorithm (GA). The result shows the importance of this type of replacement in order to economize energy consumption and to deal with obsolescence.展开更多
The effects of water temperature on oxygen consumption rate and ammonia excretion rate of Solenaia oleivora were studied in the laboratory. The results showed that, under controlled conditions and ambient temperatures...The effects of water temperature on oxygen consumption rate and ammonia excretion rate of Solenaia oleivora were studied in the laboratory. The results showed that, under controlled conditions and ambient temperatures 15—30℃, the relationship between oxygen consumption rate (O) [mg/h] and dry weight of soft tissue (W) [g] can be represented by an allometric equation O=aW b, while the relationship between ammonia excretion rate (N) [μg/h] and dry weight of soft tissue (W) [g] follows also an allometric equation N=cW b. It is indicated that both metabolic rates are correlated positively with water temperature. High temperature can reduce the level of protein metabolism. The linear regression among oxygen consumption rate (O), temperature (T) and dry weight of soft tissue (W) can be described by the equation O=-0.6513+0.0532T+0.1073W, and for ammonia this relation is N=32.1626-1.0566T+1.3222W, the multiple relation coefficient was 0.9642 and 0.8921, respectively.展开更多
Recently, urban high temperature phenomenon has become a problem which results from human activities, the increase in energy consumption, and land-cover change in urban areas. As extremely hot weather caused by urban ...Recently, urban high temperature phenomenon has become a problem which results from human activities, the increase in energy consumption, and land-cover change in urban areas. As extremely hot weather caused by urban high temperature continues, demand for power is increased and results in the degradation of electricity reserves. The current trend in climate change, regardless of the summer and winter power demand, is likely to have much effect on the power demand. Thus, sensitivity to electricity consumption in urban areas due to climate change was researched. The results show that, 1） the basic unit of the sensitivity to electricity consumption in the target areas is 1.25-1.58W/（m2.℃）; 2） The maximum sensitivity is recorded at around 8：00 pm in the area crowded with commercial and business area. And in the business area, electricity consumption load is even from 9：00 am to 6：00 pm.展开更多
A new method of prefetching data blocks from the NVCache to the page cache in main memory and cascading prefetching n-blocks from a hard disk to the NVCache together was proposed to reduce the spin-up frequency of a h...A new method of prefetching data blocks from the NVCache to the page cache in main memory and cascading prefetching n-blocks from a hard disk to the NVCache together was proposed to reduce the spin-up frequency of a hybrid hard disk drive and thus enhance I/O performance.The proposed method consists of three steps:1) Analyzing the pattern of read requests in block units;2) Determining the number of blocks prefetched to the NVCache;3) Replacing blocks in the NVCache according to the block replacement policy.The proposed method can reduce the latency time of a hybrid hard disk and optimize the power consumption of an IPTV set-top box.Experimental results show that the proposed method provides better average response time compared to an existing adaptive multistream prefetching(AMP) method by 25.17%.It also reduces by 20.83% the average power consumption over that of the existing external caching in energy saving storage system(EXCES) method.展开更多
The technical feasibility of in situ upgrading technology to develop the enormous oil and gas resource potential in low-maturity shale is widely acknowledged.However,because of the large quantities of energy required ...The technical feasibility of in situ upgrading technology to develop the enormous oil and gas resource potential in low-maturity shale is widely acknowledged.However,because of the large quantities of energy required to heat shale,its economic feasibility is still a matter of debate and has yet to be convincingly demonstrated quantitatively.Based on the energy conservation law,the energy acquisition of oil and gas generation and the energy consumption of organic matter cracking,shale heat-absorption,and surrounding rock heat dissipation during in situ heating were evaluated in this study.The energy consumption ratios for different conditions were determined,and the factors that influence them were analyzed.The results show that the energy consumption ratio increases rapidly with increasing total organic carbon(TOC)content.For oil-prone shales,the TOC content corresponding to an energy consumption ratio of 3 is approximately 4.2%.This indicates that shale with a high TOC content can be expected to reduce the project cost through large-scale operation,making the energy consumption ratio after consideration of the project cost greater than 1.In situ heating and upgrading technology can achieve economic benefits.The main methods for improving the economic feasibility by analyzing factors that influence the energy consumption ratio include the following:(1)exploring technologies that efficiently heat shale but reduce the heat dissipation of surrounding rocks,(2)exploring technologies for efficient transformation of organic matter into oil and gas,i.e.,exploring technologies with catalytic effects,or the capability to reduce in situ heating time,and(3)establishing a horizontal well deployment technology that comprehensively considers the energy consumption ratio,time cost,and engineering cost.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(710710777130106071371098)
文摘In order to improve prediction accuracy of the grey prediction model and forecast China energy consumption and production in a short term, this paper proposes a novel com- prehensively optimized GM（1,1） model, also named COGM（1,1）, based on the grey modeling mechanism. First, the relationship of the background value formula and its whitenization equation is analyzed and a new method optimizing background values is proposed to eliminate systemic errors in the modeling process. Second, the solving process of the new model is derived. For parameter estimation, a set of auxiliary parameters are used to change grey equation＇s form. Then, original parameters are re- stored by an equations system. After solving the whitenization equation, initial value in time response function is established by least errors criteria. Finally, a numerical case and comparison with other grey prediction models are made to testify the new model＇s effectiveness, and the computational results show that the COGM（1,1） model has a better property and achieves higher precision. The new model is used to forecast China energy con- sumption and production, and the ability of energy self-sufficiency is further analyzed. Results indicate that gaps between consump- tion and production in future are predicted to decline.
文摘Nondominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ) is well known for engine optimization problem. Artificial neural networks(ANNs) followed by multi-objective optimization including a NSGA-Ⅱ and strength pareto evolutionary algorithm(SPEA2) were used to optimize the operating parameters of a compression ignition(CI) heavy-duty diesel engine. First, a multi-layer perception(MLP) network was used for the ANN modeling and the back propagation algorithm was utilized as training algorithm. Then, two different multi-objective evolutionary algorithms were implemented to determine the optimal engine parameters. The objective of the present study is to decide which algorithm is preferable in terms of performance in engine emission and fuel consumption optimization problem.
基金Project(50838009) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2006BAJ02A09,2006BAJ01A13-2) supported by the National Key Technologies R & D Program of China
文摘Carbon emissions mainly result from energy consumption. Carbon emissions inevitably will increase to some extent with economic expansion and rising energy consumption. We introduce a gray theory of quantitative analysis of the energy consumption of residential buildings in Chongqing,China,on the impact of carbon emission factors. Three impacts are analyzed,namely per capita residential housing area,domestic water consumption and the rate of air conditioner ownership per 100 urban households. The gray prediction model established using the Chongqing carbon emission-residential building energy consumption forecast model is sufficiently accurate to achieve a measure of feasibility and applicability.
基金Project(2012GK2025)supported by Science-Technology Plan Foundation of Hunan Province,ChinaProject(2013zzts039)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for Central South University,China
文摘A hierarchical structural decomposition analysis(SDA) model has been developed based on process-level input-output(I-O) tables to analyze the drivers of energy consumption changes in an integrated steel plant during 2011-2013. By combining the principle of hierarchical decomposition into D&L method, a hierarchical decomposition model for multilevel SDA is obtained. The developed hierarchical IO-SDA model would provide consistent results and need less computation effort compared with the traditional SDA model. The decomposition results of the steel plant suggest that the technology improvement and reduced steel final demand are two major reasons for declined total energy consumption. The technical improvements of blast furnaces, basic oxygen furnaces, the power plant and the by-products utilization level have contributed mostly in reducing energy consumption. A major retrofit of ancillary process units and solving fuel substitution problem in the sinter plant and blast furnace are important for further energy saving. Besides the empirical results, this work also discussed that why and how hierarchical SDA can be applied in a process-level decomposition analysis of aggregated indicators.
基金supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars under Grant No.71025005the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.91224001 and 71301006+1 种基金National Program for Support of Top-Notch Young Professionalsthe Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in BUCT
文摘Due to the nonlinearity and nonstationary of hydropower market data, a novel hybrid learning paradigm is proposed to predict hydropower consumption, by incorporating firefly algorithm （FA） into least square support vector regression （LSSVR）, i.e., FA-based LSSVR model. In the novel model, the powerful and effective artificial intelligence （AI） technique, i.e., LSSVR, is employed to forecast hydropower consumption. Furthermore, a promising AI optimization tool, i.e., FA, is espe- cially introduced to address the crucial but difficult task of parameters determination in LSSVR （e.g., hyper and kernel function parameters）. With the Chinese hydropower consumption as sample data, the empirical study has statistically confirmed the superiority of the novel FA-based LSSVR model to other benchmark models （including existing popular traditional econometric models, AI models and similar hybrid LSSVRs with other popular parameter searching tools）~ in terms of level and direc- tional accuracy. The empirical results also imply that the hybrid FA-based LSSVR learning paradigm with powerful forecasting tool and parameters optimization method can be employed as an effective forecasting tool for not only hydropower consumption but also other complex data.
基金Project(70373017) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Considering the factors affecting the increasing rate of power consumption, the BP neural network structure and the neural network forecasting model of the increasing rate of power consumption were established. Immune genetic algorithm was applied to optimizing the weight from input layer to hidden layer, from hidden layer to output layer, and the threshold value of neuron nodes in hidden and output layers. Finally, training the related data of the increasing rate of power consumption from 1980 to 2000 in China, a nonlinear network model between the increasing rate of power consumption and influencing factors was obtained. The model was adopted to forecasting the increasing rate of power consumption from 2001 to 2005, and the average absolute error ratio of forecasting results is 13.521 8%. Compared with the ordinary neural network optimized by genetic algorithm, the results show that this method has better forecasting accuracy and stability for forecasting the increasing rate of power consumption.
基金Project(2003BA808A15-2-4) supported by the National Scientific and Technologies Key Task Program
文摘A comprehensive assessing method based on the principle of the gray system theory and gray relational grade analysis was put forward to optimize water consumption forecasting models. The method provides a better accuracy for the assessment and the optimal selection of the water consumption forecasting models. The results show that the forecasting model built on this comprehensive assessing method presents better self-adaptability and accuracy in forecasting.
基金Project(RGPIN-2019-05824)supported by the Start-up Fund of Universitéde Sherbrooke and Discovery Grants of Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada(NSERC)。
文摘Ventilation is an effective solution for improving indoor air quality and reducing airborne transmission.Buildings need sufficient ventilation to maintain a low infection risk but also need to avoid an excessive ventilation rate,which may lead to high energy consumption.The Wells-Riley(WR)model is widely used to predict infection risk and control the ventilation rate.However,few studies compared the non-steady-state(NSS)and steady-state(SS)WR models that are used for ventilation control.To fill in this research gap,this study investigates the effects of the mechanical ventilation control strategies based on NSS/SS WR models on the required ventilation rates to prevent airborne transmission and related energy consumption.The modified NSS/SS WR models were proposed by considering many parameters that were ignored before,such as the initial quantum concentration.Based on the NSS/SS WR models,two new ventilation control strategies were proposed.A real building in Canada is used as the case study.The results indicate that under a high initial quantum concentration(e.g.,0.3 q/m^(3))and no protective measures,SS WR control underestimates the required ventilation rate.The ventilation energy consumption of NSS control is up to 2.5 times as high as that of the SS control.
文摘Nowadays, rapid technological progress influences the dependability of equipments and also causes rapid obsolescence. The mechatronic and electronic equipment components are mostly affected by obsolescence. A new challenger unit possesses identical functionalities, but with higher performances. This work aims to find the optimal number of components which should be replaced by new-type units, under budgetary constraints. In this work, the new challenger unit is characterized by lower energy consumption and the optimization steps are based on genetic algorithm (GA). The result shows the importance of this type of replacement in order to economize energy consumption and to deal with obsolescence.
文摘The effects of water temperature on oxygen consumption rate and ammonia excretion rate of Solenaia oleivora were studied in the laboratory. The results showed that, under controlled conditions and ambient temperatures 15—30℃, the relationship between oxygen consumption rate (O) [mg/h] and dry weight of soft tissue (W) [g] can be represented by an allometric equation O=aW b, while the relationship between ammonia excretion rate (N) [μg/h] and dry weight of soft tissue (W) [g] follows also an allometric equation N=cW b. It is indicated that both metabolic rates are correlated positively with water temperature. High temperature can reduce the level of protein metabolism. The linear regression among oxygen consumption rate (O), temperature (T) and dry weight of soft tissue (W) can be described by the equation O=-0.6513+0.0532T+0.1073W, and for ammonia this relation is N=32.1626-1.0566T+1.3222W, the multiple relation coefficient was 0.9642 and 0.8921, respectively.
基金Project(NRF-20110030631) supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government
文摘Recently, urban high temperature phenomenon has become a problem which results from human activities, the increase in energy consumption, and land-cover change in urban areas. As extremely hot weather caused by urban high temperature continues, demand for power is increased and results in the degradation of electricity reserves. The current trend in climate change, regardless of the summer and winter power demand, is likely to have much effect on the power demand. Thus, sensitivity to electricity consumption in urban areas due to climate change was researched. The results show that, 1） the basic unit of the sensitivity to electricity consumption in the target areas is 1.25-1.58W/（m2.℃）; 2） The maximum sensitivity is recorded at around 8：00 pm in the area crowded with commercial and business area. And in the business area, electricity consumption load is even from 9：00 am to 6：00 pm.
基金supported in part by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (2011-0004114)in part by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy (MKE) and Korea Institute for Advancement in Technology (KIAT) through the Workforce Development Program in Strategic Technology in part by the MKE (The Ministry of Knowledge Economy), Korea, under the CITRC (Convergence Information Technology Research Center) support program (NIPA-2012-C6150-1201-0001) supervised by the NIPA (National IT Industry Promotion Agency)
文摘A new method of prefetching data blocks from the NVCache to the page cache in main memory and cascading prefetching n-blocks from a hard disk to the NVCache together was proposed to reduce the spin-up frequency of a hybrid hard disk drive and thus enhance I/O performance.The proposed method consists of three steps:1) Analyzing the pattern of read requests in block units;2) Determining the number of blocks prefetched to the NVCache;3) Replacing blocks in the NVCache according to the block replacement policy.The proposed method can reduce the latency time of a hybrid hard disk and optimize the power consumption of an IPTV set-top box.Experimental results show that the proposed method provides better average response time compared to an existing adaptive multistream prefetching(AMP) method by 25.17%.It also reduces by 20.83% the average power consumption over that of the existing external caching in energy saving storage system(EXCES) method.
文摘The technical feasibility of in situ upgrading technology to develop the enormous oil and gas resource potential in low-maturity shale is widely acknowledged.However,because of the large quantities of energy required to heat shale,its economic feasibility is still a matter of debate and has yet to be convincingly demonstrated quantitatively.Based on the energy conservation law,the energy acquisition of oil and gas generation and the energy consumption of organic matter cracking,shale heat-absorption,and surrounding rock heat dissipation during in situ heating were evaluated in this study.The energy consumption ratios for different conditions were determined,and the factors that influence them were analyzed.The results show that the energy consumption ratio increases rapidly with increasing total organic carbon(TOC)content.For oil-prone shales,the TOC content corresponding to an energy consumption ratio of 3 is approximately 4.2%.This indicates that shale with a high TOC content can be expected to reduce the project cost through large-scale operation,making the energy consumption ratio after consideration of the project cost greater than 1.In situ heating and upgrading technology can achieve economic benefits.The main methods for improving the economic feasibility by analyzing factors that influence the energy consumption ratio include the following:(1)exploring technologies that efficiently heat shale but reduce the heat dissipation of surrounding rocks,(2)exploring technologies for efficient transformation of organic matter into oil and gas,i.e.,exploring technologies with catalytic effects,or the capability to reduce in situ heating time,and(3)establishing a horizontal well deployment technology that comprehensively considers the energy consumption ratio,time cost,and engineering cost.
