Hemorrhagic stroke,the second leading cause of stroke,is a severe medical emergency that often leads to severe disability or death;however,the causal relationship between antibody-mediated immune responses and hemorrh...Hemorrhagic stroke,the second leading cause of stroke,is a severe medical emergency that often leads to severe disability or death;however,the causal relationship between antibody-mediated immune responses and hemorrhagic stroke remains unknown.This study aimed to investigate the potential causal relationship between antibody-mediated immune responses to infectious agents and hemorrhagic stroke using the two-sample Mendelian randomization(MR)method.Comprehensive analyses were conducted using publicly available data from genome-wide association study(GWAS),which involved the whole genomes of 9724 European participants and 46 antibody measurement phenotypes,and summary statistics from the FinnGen dataset R12(including intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage)were used.The causal relationship between the aforementioned immune responses and hemorrhagic stroke was analyzed using inverse-variance weighting,MR-Egger regression,weighted median,weighted mode,simple mode,and MR-pleiotropy residual sum and outlier(MR-PRESSO),while various sensitivity analyses were performed to assess heterogeneity and pleiotropy in the study findings.Results showed that human herpes virus 7(HHV-7)U14 antibody levels(OR:0.877,95%CI:0.797-0.964,P=0.007)exerted a protective effect against hemorrhagic stroke,and Chlamydia trachomatis(CT)tarp-D F2 antibody levels(OR:0.937,95%CI:0.885-0.992,P=0.025)had a potential protective effect;additionally,Epstein-Barr virus(EBV)ZEBRA antibody levels(OR:1.062,95%CI:1.012-1.114,P=0.014),human herpesvirus 6(HHV-6)p101k antibody levels(OR:1.054,95%CI:1.002-1.108,P=0.042),and cytomegalovirus(CMV)pp150 antibody levels(OR:1.086,95%CI:1.002-1.176,P=0.045)were potential risk factors for the disease.No significant pleiotropy or heterogeneity was observed in any of the MR analyses.Collectively,these findings confirmed a significant causal relationship between antibody-mediated immune responses and hemorrhagic stroke,and this study contributed to a deeper understanding of the potential mechanisms underlying hemorrhagic stroke onset.展开更多
A new approach for abnormal behavior detection was proposed using causality analysis and sparse reconstruction. To effectively represent multiple-object behavior, low level visual features and causality features were ...A new approach for abnormal behavior detection was proposed using causality analysis and sparse reconstruction. To effectively represent multiple-object behavior, low level visual features and causality features were adopted. The low level visual features, which included trajectory shape descriptor, speeded up robust features and histograms of optical flow, were used to describe properties of individual behavior, and causality features obtained by causality analysis were introduced to depict the interaction information among a set of objects. In order to cope with feature noisy and uncertainty, a method for multiple-object anomaly detection was presented via a sparse reconstruction. The abnormality of the testing sample was decided by the sparse reconstruction cost from an atomically learned dictionary. Experiment results show the effectiveness of the proposed method in comparison with other state-of-the-art methods on the public databases for abnormal behavior detection.展开更多
Causality,the science of cause and effect,has made it possible to create a new family of models.Such models are often referred to as causal models.Unlike those of mathematical,numerical,empirical,or machine learning(M...Causality,the science of cause and effect,has made it possible to create a new family of models.Such models are often referred to as causal models.Unlike those of mathematical,numerical,empirical,or machine learning(ML)nature,causal models hope to tie the cause(s)to the effect(s)pertaining to a phenomenon(i.e.,data generating process)through causal principles.This paper presents one of the first works at creating causal models in the area of structural and construction engineering.To this end,this paper starts with a brief review of the principles of causality and then adopts four causal discovery algorithms,namely,PC(Peter-Clark),FCI(fast causal inference),GES(greedy equivalence search),and GRa SP(greedy relaxation of the sparsest permutation),have been used to examine four phenomena,including predicting the load-bearing capacity of axially loaded members,fire resistance of structural members,shear strength of beams,and resistance of walls against impulsive(blast)loading.Findings from this study reveal the possibility and merit of discovering complete and partial causal models.Finally,this study also proposes two simple metrics that can help assess the performance of causal discovery algorithms.展开更多
The learning algorithms of causal discovery mainly include score-based methods and genetic algorithms(GA).The score-based algorithms are prone to searching space explosion.Classical GA is slow to converge,and prone to...The learning algorithms of causal discovery mainly include score-based methods and genetic algorithms(GA).The score-based algorithms are prone to searching space explosion.Classical GA is slow to converge,and prone to falling into local optima.To address these issues,an improved GA with domain knowledge(IGADK)is proposed.Firstly,domain knowledge is incorporated into the learning process of causality to construct a new fitness function.Secondly,a dynamical mutation operator is introduced in the algorithm to accelerate the convergence rate.Finally,an experiment is conducted on simulation data,which compares the classical GA with IGADK with domain knowledge of varying accuracy.The IGADK can greatly reduce the number of iterations,populations,and samples required for learning,which illustrates the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.展开更多
Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of...Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.展开更多
The anti-aircraft system plays an irreplaceable role in modern combat. An anti-aircraft system consists of various types of functional entities interacting to destroy the hostile aircraft moving in high speed. The con...The anti-aircraft system plays an irreplaceable role in modern combat. An anti-aircraft system consists of various types of functional entities interacting to destroy the hostile aircraft moving in high speed. The connecting structure of combat entities in it is of great importance for supporting the normal process of the system. In this paper, we explore the optimizing strategy of the structure of the anti-aircraft network by establishing extra communication channels between the combat entities.Firstly, the thought of combat network model(CNM) is borrowed to model the anti-aircraft system as a heterogeneous network. Secondly, the optimization objectives are determined as the survivability and the accuracy of the system. To specify these objectives, the information chain and accuracy chain are constructed based on CNM. The causal strength(CAST) logic and influence network(IN) are introduced to illustrate the establishment of the accuracy chain. Thirdly, the optimization constraints are discussed and set in three aspects: time, connection feasibility and budget. The time constraint network(TCN) is introduced to construct the timing chain and help to detect the timing consistency. Then, the process of the multi-objective optimization of the structure of the anti-aircraft system is designed.Finally, a simulation is conducted to prove the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method. Non-dominated sorting based genetic algorithm-Ⅱ(NSGA2) is used to solve the multiobjective optimization problem and two other algorithms including non-dominated sorting based genetic algorithm-Ⅲ(NSGA3)and strength Pareto evolutionary algorithm-Ⅱ(SPEA2) are employed as comparisons. The deciders and system builders can make the anti-aircraft system improved in the survivability and accuracy in the combat reality.展开更多
Aiming at the research that using more new knowledge to develope knowledge system with dynamic accordance, and under the background of using Fuzzy language field and Fuzzy language values structure as description fram...Aiming at the research that using more new knowledge to develope knowledge system with dynamic accordance, and under the background of using Fuzzy language field and Fuzzy language values structure as description framework, the generalized cell Automation that can synthetically process fuzzy indeterminacy and random indeterminacy and generalized inductive logic causal model is brought forward. On this basis, a kind of the new method that can discover causal association rules is provded. According to the causal information of standard sample space and commonly sample space, through constructing its state （abnormality） relation matrix, causal association rules can be gained by using inductive reasoning mechanism. The estimate of this algorithm complexity is given,and its validiw is proved through case.展开更多
How to improve the efficiency of exact learning of the Bayesian network structure is a challenging issue.In this paper,four different causal constraints algorithms are added into score calculations to prune possible p...How to improve the efficiency of exact learning of the Bayesian network structure is a challenging issue.In this paper,four different causal constraints algorithms are added into score calculations to prune possible parent sets,improving state-ofthe-art learning algorithms’efficiency.Experimental results indicate that exact learning algorithms can significantly improve the efficiency with only a slight loss of accuracy.Under causal constraints,these exact learning algorithms can prune about 70%possible parent sets and reduce about 60%running time while only losing no more than 2%accuracy on average.Additionally,with sufficient samples,exact learning algorithms with causal constraints can also obtain the optimal network.In general,adding max-min parents and children constraints has better results in terms of efficiency and accuracy among these four causal constraints algorithms.展开更多
In this paper, stochastic stabilization is investigated by max-plus algebra for a Markovian jump cloud control system with a reference signal. For the Markovian jump cloud control system, there exists framework adjust...In this paper, stochastic stabilization is investigated by max-plus algebra for a Markovian jump cloud control system with a reference signal. For the Markovian jump cloud control system, there exists framework adjustment whose evolution is satisfied with a Markov chain. Using max-plus algebra, a maxplus stochastic system is used to describe the Markovian jump cloud control system. A causal feedback matrix is obtained by exponential stability analysis for a causal feedback controller of the Markovian jump cloud control system. A sufficient condition is given to ensure existence on the causal feedback matrix of the causal feedback controller. Based on the causal feedback controller, stochastic stabilization in probability is analyzed for the Markovian jump cloud control system with a reference signal.Simulation results are given to show effectiveness of the causal feedback controller for the Markovian jump cloud control system.展开更多
Many digital platforms have employed free-content promotion strategies to deal with the high uncertainty levels regarding digital content products.However,the diversity of digital content products and user heterogenei...Many digital platforms have employed free-content promotion strategies to deal with the high uncertainty levels regarding digital content products.However,the diversity of digital content products and user heterogeneity in content preference may blur the impact of platform promotions across users and products.Therefore,free-content promotion strategies should be adapted to allocate marketing resources optimally and increase revenue.This study develops personal-ized free-content promotion strategies based on individual-level heterogeneous treatment effects and explores the causes of their heterogeneity,focusing on the moderating effect of user engagement-related variables.To this end,we utilize ran-dom field experimental data provided by a top Chinese e-book platform.We employ a framework that combines machine learning with econometric causal inference methods to estimate individual treatment effects and analyze their potential mechanisms.The analysis shows that,on average,free-content promotions lead to a significant increase in consumer pay-ments.However,the higher the level of user engagement,the lower the payment lift caused by promotions,as more-engaged users are more strongly affected by the cannibalization effect of free-content promotion.This study introduces a novel causal research design to help platforms improve their marketing strategies.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundations of China(82271340,82071368)。
文摘Hemorrhagic stroke,the second leading cause of stroke,is a severe medical emergency that often leads to severe disability or death;however,the causal relationship between antibody-mediated immune responses and hemorrhagic stroke remains unknown.This study aimed to investigate the potential causal relationship between antibody-mediated immune responses to infectious agents and hemorrhagic stroke using the two-sample Mendelian randomization(MR)method.Comprehensive analyses were conducted using publicly available data from genome-wide association study(GWAS),which involved the whole genomes of 9724 European participants and 46 antibody measurement phenotypes,and summary statistics from the FinnGen dataset R12(including intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage)were used.The causal relationship between the aforementioned immune responses and hemorrhagic stroke was analyzed using inverse-variance weighting,MR-Egger regression,weighted median,weighted mode,simple mode,and MR-pleiotropy residual sum and outlier(MR-PRESSO),while various sensitivity analyses were performed to assess heterogeneity and pleiotropy in the study findings.Results showed that human herpes virus 7(HHV-7)U14 antibody levels(OR:0.877,95%CI:0.797-0.964,P=0.007)exerted a protective effect against hemorrhagic stroke,and Chlamydia trachomatis(CT)tarp-D F2 antibody levels(OR:0.937,95%CI:0.885-0.992,P=0.025)had a potential protective effect;additionally,Epstein-Barr virus(EBV)ZEBRA antibody levels(OR:1.062,95%CI:1.012-1.114,P=0.014),human herpesvirus 6(HHV-6)p101k antibody levels(OR:1.054,95%CI:1.002-1.108,P=0.042),and cytomegalovirus(CMV)pp150 antibody levels(OR:1.086,95%CI:1.002-1.176,P=0.045)were potential risk factors for the disease.No significant pleiotropy or heterogeneity was observed in any of the MR analyses.Collectively,these findings confirmed a significant causal relationship between antibody-mediated immune responses and hemorrhagic stroke,and this study contributed to a deeper understanding of the potential mechanisms underlying hemorrhagic stroke onset.
基金Project(50808025) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(20090162110057) supported by the Doctoral Fund of Ministry of Education,China
文摘A new approach for abnormal behavior detection was proposed using causality analysis and sparse reconstruction. To effectively represent multiple-object behavior, low level visual features and causality features were adopted. The low level visual features, which included trajectory shape descriptor, speeded up robust features and histograms of optical flow, were used to describe properties of individual behavior, and causality features obtained by causality analysis were introduced to depict the interaction information among a set of objects. In order to cope with feature noisy and uncertainty, a method for multiple-object anomaly detection was presented via a sparse reconstruction. The abnormality of the testing sample was decided by the sparse reconstruction cost from an atomically learned dictionary. Experiment results show the effectiveness of the proposed method in comparison with other state-of-the-art methods on the public databases for abnormal behavior detection.
文摘Causality,the science of cause and effect,has made it possible to create a new family of models.Such models are often referred to as causal models.Unlike those of mathematical,numerical,empirical,or machine learning(ML)nature,causal models hope to tie the cause(s)to the effect(s)pertaining to a phenomenon(i.e.,data generating process)through causal principles.This paper presents one of the first works at creating causal models in the area of structural and construction engineering.To this end,this paper starts with a brief review of the principles of causality and then adopts four causal discovery algorithms,namely,PC(Peter-Clark),FCI(fast causal inference),GES(greedy equivalence search),and GRa SP(greedy relaxation of the sparsest permutation),have been used to examine four phenomena,including predicting the load-bearing capacity of axially loaded members,fire resistance of structural members,shear strength of beams,and resistance of walls against impulsive(blast)loading.Findings from this study reveal the possibility and merit of discovering complete and partial causal models.Finally,this study also proposes two simple metrics that can help assess the performance of causal discovery algorithms.
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund of China(2022-SKJJ-B-084).
文摘The learning algorithms of causal discovery mainly include score-based methods and genetic algorithms(GA).The score-based algorithms are prone to searching space explosion.Classical GA is slow to converge,and prone to falling into local optima.To address these issues,an improved GA with domain knowledge(IGADK)is proposed.Firstly,domain knowledge is incorporated into the learning process of causality to construct a new fitness function.Secondly,a dynamical mutation operator is introduced in the algorithm to accelerate the convergence rate.Finally,an experiment is conducted on simulation data,which compares the classical GA with IGADK with domain knowledge of varying accuracy.The IGADK can greatly reduce the number of iterations,populations,and samples required for learning,which illustrates the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
文摘Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72071206).
文摘The anti-aircraft system plays an irreplaceable role in modern combat. An anti-aircraft system consists of various types of functional entities interacting to destroy the hostile aircraft moving in high speed. The connecting structure of combat entities in it is of great importance for supporting the normal process of the system. In this paper, we explore the optimizing strategy of the structure of the anti-aircraft network by establishing extra communication channels between the combat entities.Firstly, the thought of combat network model(CNM) is borrowed to model the anti-aircraft system as a heterogeneous network. Secondly, the optimization objectives are determined as the survivability and the accuracy of the system. To specify these objectives, the information chain and accuracy chain are constructed based on CNM. The causal strength(CAST) logic and influence network(IN) are introduced to illustrate the establishment of the accuracy chain. Thirdly, the optimization constraints are discussed and set in three aspects: time, connection feasibility and budget. The time constraint network(TCN) is introduced to construct the timing chain and help to detect the timing consistency. Then, the process of the multi-objective optimization of the structure of the anti-aircraft system is designed.Finally, a simulation is conducted to prove the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method. Non-dominated sorting based genetic algorithm-Ⅱ(NSGA2) is used to solve the multiobjective optimization problem and two other algorithms including non-dominated sorting based genetic algorithm-Ⅲ(NSGA3)and strength Pareto evolutionary algorithm-Ⅱ(SPEA2) are employed as comparisons. The deciders and system builders can make the anti-aircraft system improved in the survivability and accuracy in the combat reality.
文摘Aiming at the research that using more new knowledge to develope knowledge system with dynamic accordance, and under the background of using Fuzzy language field and Fuzzy language values structure as description framework, the generalized cell Automation that can synthetically process fuzzy indeterminacy and random indeterminacy and generalized inductive logic causal model is brought forward. On this basis, a kind of the new method that can discover causal association rules is provded. According to the causal information of standard sample space and commonly sample space, through constructing its state （abnormality） relation matrix, causal association rules can be gained by using inductive reasoning mechanism. The estimate of this algorithm complexity is given,and its validiw is proved through case.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61573285).
文摘How to improve the efficiency of exact learning of the Bayesian network structure is a challenging issue.In this paper,four different causal constraints algorithms are added into score calculations to prune possible parent sets,improving state-ofthe-art learning algorithms’efficiency.Experimental results indicate that exact learning algorithms can significantly improve the efficiency with only a slight loss of accuracy.Under causal constraints,these exact learning algorithms can prune about 70%possible parent sets and reduce about 60%running time while only losing no more than 2%accuracy on average.Additionally,with sufficient samples,exact learning algorithms with causal constraints can also obtain the optimal network.In general,adding max-min parents and children constraints has better results in terms of efficiency and accuracy among these four causal constraints algorithms.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61973230)Tianjin Research Innovation Project for Postgraduate Students (2021YJSO2S03)。
文摘In this paper, stochastic stabilization is investigated by max-plus algebra for a Markovian jump cloud control system with a reference signal. For the Markovian jump cloud control system, there exists framework adjustment whose evolution is satisfied with a Markov chain. Using max-plus algebra, a maxplus stochastic system is used to describe the Markovian jump cloud control system. A causal feedback matrix is obtained by exponential stability analysis for a causal feedback controller of the Markovian jump cloud control system. A sufficient condition is given to ensure existence on the causal feedback matrix of the causal feedback controller. Based on the causal feedback controller, stochastic stabilization in probability is analyzed for the Markovian jump cloud control system with a reference signal.Simulation results are given to show effectiveness of the causal feedback controller for the Markovian jump cloud control system.
基金supported by the Anhui Postdoctoral Scientific Research Program Foundation(2022B579).
文摘Many digital platforms have employed free-content promotion strategies to deal with the high uncertainty levels regarding digital content products.However,the diversity of digital content products and user heterogeneity in content preference may blur the impact of platform promotions across users and products.Therefore,free-content promotion strategies should be adapted to allocate marketing resources optimally and increase revenue.This study develops personal-ized free-content promotion strategies based on individual-level heterogeneous treatment effects and explores the causes of their heterogeneity,focusing on the moderating effect of user engagement-related variables.To this end,we utilize ran-dom field experimental data provided by a top Chinese e-book platform.We employ a framework that combines machine learning with econometric causal inference methods to estimate individual treatment effects and analyze their potential mechanisms.The analysis shows that,on average,free-content promotions lead to a significant increase in consumer pay-ments.However,the higher the level of user engagement,the lower the payment lift caused by promotions,as more-engaged users are more strongly affected by the cannibalization effect of free-content promotion.This study introduces a novel causal research design to help platforms improve their marketing strategies.
