Recently, high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missiles in the boost phase has become a research hotspot. This paper proposes a trajectory prediction algorithm driven by data and knowledge(DKTP) to solve ...Recently, high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missiles in the boost phase has become a research hotspot. This paper proposes a trajectory prediction algorithm driven by data and knowledge(DKTP) to solve this problem. Firstly, the complex dynamics characteristics of ballistic missile in the boost phase are analyzed in detail. Secondly, combining the missile dynamics model with the target gravity turning model, a knowledge-driven target three-dimensional turning(T3) model is derived. Then, the BP neural network is used to train the boost phase trajectory database in typical scenarios to obtain a datadriven state parameter mapping(SPM) model. On this basis, an online trajectory prediction framework driven by data and knowledge is established. Based on the SPM model, the three-dimensional turning coefficients of the target are predicted by using the current state of the target, and the state of the target at the next moment is obtained by combining the T3 model. Finally, simulation verification is carried out under various conditions. The simulation results show that the DKTP algorithm combines the advantages of data-driven and knowledge-driven, improves the interpretability of the algorithm, reduces the uncertainty, which can achieve high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missile in the boost phase.展开更多
A conditional boost-phase trajectory estimation method based on ballistic missile （BM） information database and classification is developed to estimate and predict boos-phase BM trajectory. The main uncertain factor...A conditional boost-phase trajectory estimation method based on ballistic missile （BM） information database and classification is developed to estimate and predict boos-phase BM trajectory. The main uncertain factors to describe BM dynamics equation are reduced to the control law of trajectory pitch angle in boost-phase. After the BM mass at the beginning of estimation, the BM attack angle and the modification of engine thrust denoting BM acceleration are modeled reasonably, the boost-phase BM trajectory estimation with ground based radar is well realized. The validity of this estimation method is testified by computer simulation with a typical example.展开更多
This paper proposes a modified centralized shifted Rayleigh filter（MCSRF） algorithm for tracking boost phase of ballistic missile（BM） trajectory with a highly nonlinear dynamical model based on bearings-only.This ...This paper proposes a modified centralized shifted Rayleigh filter（MCSRF） algorithm for tracking boost phase of ballistic missile（BM） trajectory with a highly nonlinear dynamical model based on bearings-only.This paper contributes three folds.Firstly,the mathematical model of an MCSRF for multiple passive sensors is derived.Then,minimum entropy based onedimensional optimization search to adaptively adjust the probability of the different filters for real time state estimation is deployed.Finally,the unscented transform（UT） is introduced to resolve the asymmetric state estimation problem.Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can consecutively track the BM precisely during the boost phase.In comparison with the unscented Kalman filter（UKF） algorithm,the proposed algorithm effectively reduces the tracking position and velocity root mean square（RMS） errors,which will make more sense for early precision interception.展开更多
In the re-entry phase of a ballistic missile,decoys can be deployed as a mean to overburden enemy defenses.This results in a single track being split into multiple track-lets.Tracking of these track-lets is a critical...In the re-entry phase of a ballistic missile,decoys can be deployed as a mean to overburden enemy defenses.This results in a single track being split into multiple track-lets.Tracking of these track-lets is a critical task as any miss in the tracking procedure can become a cause of a major threat.The tracking process becomes more complicated in the presence of clutter.The low detection rate is one of the factors that may contribute to increasing the difficulty level in terms of tracking in the cluttered environment.This work introduces a new algorithm for the split event detection and target tracking under the framework of the joint integrated probabilistic data association(JIPDA)algorithm.The proposed algorithm is termed as split event-JIPDA(SE-JIPDA).This work establishes the mathematical foundation for the split target detection and tracking mechanism.The performance analysis is made under different simulation conditions to provide a clear insight into the merits of the proposed algorithm.The performance parameters in these simulations are the root mean square error(RMSE),confirmed true track rate(CTTR)and confirmed split true track rate(CSTTR).展开更多
It is necessary that the laser inertial system is used to further improve the fire accuracy and quick reaction capability in the ballistic missile strapdown inertial navigation system. According to the guidance contro...It is necessary that the laser inertial system is used to further improve the fire accuracy and quick reaction capability in the ballistic missile strapdown inertial navigation system. According to the guidance controlling method and the output and error model of ballistic missile laser SIMU, the mathematical model of error propagation mechanism is set up and any transfer environmental function of error coefficient that affects the fire accuracy is deduced. Also, the missile longitudinal/lateral impact point is calculated using MATLAB. These establish the technical foundation for further researching the dispersion characteristics of impact point and reducing the laser guidance error.展开更多
An impact point prediction(IPP) guidance based on supervised learning is proposed to address the problem of precise guidance for the ballistic missile in high maneuver penetration condition.An accurate ballistic traje...An impact point prediction(IPP) guidance based on supervised learning is proposed to address the problem of precise guidance for the ballistic missile in high maneuver penetration condition.An accurate ballistic trajectory model is applied to generate training samples,and ablation experiments are conducted to determine the mapping relationship between the flight state and the impact point.At the same time,the impact point coordinates are decoupled to improve the prediction accuracy,and the sigmoid activation function is improved to ameliorate the prediction efficiency.Therefore,an IPP neural network model,which solves the contradiction between the accuracy and the speed of the IPP,is established.In view of the performance deviation of the divert control system,the mapping relationship between the guidance parameters and the impact deviation is analysed based on the variational principle.In addition,a fast iterative model of guidance parameters is designed for reference to the Newton iteration method,which solves the nonlinear strong coupling problem of the guidance parameter solution.Monte Carlo simulation results show that the prediction accuracy of the impact point is high,with a 3 σ prediction error of 4.5 m,and the guidance method is robust,with a 3 σ error of 7.5 m.On the STM32F407 singlechip microcomputer,a single IPP takes about 2.374 ms,and a single guidance solution takes about9.936 ms,which has a good real-time performance and a certain engineering application value.展开更多
Considering the problem of multiple ballistic missiles tracking of boost-phase ballistic missile defense, a boost-phase tracking algorithm based on multiple hypotheses tracking （MHT） concept is proposed. This paper ...Considering the problem of multiple ballistic missiles tracking of boost-phase ballistic missile defense, a boost-phase tracking algorithm based on multiple hypotheses tracking （MHT） concept is proposed. This paper focuses on the tracking algo- rithm for hypothesis generation, hypothesis probability calculation, hypotheses reduction and pruning and other sectors. From an engineering point of view, a technique called the linear assignment problem （LAP） used in the implementation of M-best feasible hypotheses generation, the number of the hypotheses is relatively small compared with the total number that may exist in each scan, also the N-scan back pruning is used, the algorithm＇s efficiency and practicality have been improved. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can track the boost phase of multiple ballistic missiles and it has a good tracking performance compared with joint probability data association （JPDA）.展开更多
The damage effects of fluid-filled submunition payload impacted by the kinetic kill vehicle(KKV)are investigated by simulations and ground-based experiments.Numerical simulations showed that the damage level and numbe...The damage effects of fluid-filled submunition payload impacted by the kinetic kill vehicle(KKV)are investigated by simulations and ground-based experiments.Numerical simulations showed that the damage level and number of submunitions were significantly influenced by the diameter of the KKV compared with its length.Based on that,a high velocity penetrator formed by shaped charge explosion was used to simulate the direct hit experiment of a KKV impacting submunition payload.Experimental results demonstrated that the damage modes of submunitions mainly included the slight damage,perforation and total smash,showing a good agreement with the simulations.To understand the multiple damage modes of submunitions,the damage behavior of the submunitions in direct hit process were analyzed based on the AUTODYN-3D code.Numerical results presented that increased KKV diameter can increase the crater diameter and expand the damage volume,which will achieve a higher direct hit lethality.Further analysis indicated that there were other mechanical behaviors can enhance the damage to submunitions not lying in the KKV flight path,such as secondary debris kill,neighboring submunitions collision with each other,and high-speed fluid injection effect.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 12072090 and No.12302056) to provide fund for conducting experiments。
文摘Recently, high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missiles in the boost phase has become a research hotspot. This paper proposes a trajectory prediction algorithm driven by data and knowledge(DKTP) to solve this problem. Firstly, the complex dynamics characteristics of ballistic missile in the boost phase are analyzed in detail. Secondly, combining the missile dynamics model with the target gravity turning model, a knowledge-driven target three-dimensional turning(T3) model is derived. Then, the BP neural network is used to train the boost phase trajectory database in typical scenarios to obtain a datadriven state parameter mapping(SPM) model. On this basis, an online trajectory prediction framework driven by data and knowledge is established. Based on the SPM model, the three-dimensional turning coefficients of the target are predicted by using the current state of the target, and the state of the target at the next moment is obtained by combining the T3 model. Finally, simulation verification is carried out under various conditions. The simulation results show that the DKTP algorithm combines the advantages of data-driven and knowledge-driven, improves the interpretability of the algorithm, reduces the uncertainty, which can achieve high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missile in the boost phase.
文摘A conditional boost-phase trajectory estimation method based on ballistic missile （BM） information database and classification is developed to estimate and predict boos-phase BM trajectory. The main uncertain factors to describe BM dynamics equation are reduced to the control law of trajectory pitch angle in boost-phase. After the BM mass at the beginning of estimation, the BM attack angle and the modification of engine thrust denoting BM acceleration are modeled reasonably, the boost-phase BM trajectory estimation with ground based radar is well realized. The validity of this estimation method is testified by computer simulation with a typical example.
基金supported by the Aerospace Science and Technology Innovation Foundation (CASC0202-3)
文摘This paper proposes a modified centralized shifted Rayleigh filter（MCSRF） algorithm for tracking boost phase of ballistic missile（BM） trajectory with a highly nonlinear dynamical model based on bearings-only.This paper contributes three folds.Firstly,the mathematical model of an MCSRF for multiple passive sensors is derived.Then,minimum entropy based onedimensional optimization search to adaptively adjust the probability of the different filters for real time state estimation is deployed.Finally,the unscented transform（UT） is introduced to resolve the asymmetric state estimation problem.Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can consecutively track the BM precisely during the boost phase.In comparison with the unscented Kalman filter（UKF） algorithm,the proposed algorithm effectively reduces the tracking position and velocity root mean square（RMS） errors,which will make more sense for early precision interception.
文摘In the re-entry phase of a ballistic missile,decoys can be deployed as a mean to overburden enemy defenses.This results in a single track being split into multiple track-lets.Tracking of these track-lets is a critical task as any miss in the tracking procedure can become a cause of a major threat.The tracking process becomes more complicated in the presence of clutter.The low detection rate is one of the factors that may contribute to increasing the difficulty level in terms of tracking in the cluttered environment.This work introduces a new algorithm for the split event detection and target tracking under the framework of the joint integrated probabilistic data association(JIPDA)algorithm.The proposed algorithm is termed as split event-JIPDA(SE-JIPDA).This work establishes the mathematical foundation for the split target detection and tracking mechanism.The performance analysis is made under different simulation conditions to provide a clear insight into the merits of the proposed algorithm.The performance parameters in these simulations are the root mean square error(RMSE),confirmed true track rate(CTTR)and confirmed split true track rate(CSTTR).
文摘It is necessary that the laser inertial system is used to further improve the fire accuracy and quick reaction capability in the ballistic missile strapdown inertial navigation system. According to the guidance controlling method and the output and error model of ballistic missile laser SIMU, the mathematical model of error propagation mechanism is set up and any transfer environmental function of error coefficient that affects the fire accuracy is deduced. Also, the missile longitudinal/lateral impact point is calculated using MATLAB. These establish the technical foundation for further researching the dispersion characteristics of impact point and reducing the laser guidance error.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.62103432)supported by Young Talent fund of University Association for Science and Technology in Shaanxi, China(Grant No.20210108)。
文摘An impact point prediction(IPP) guidance based on supervised learning is proposed to address the problem of precise guidance for the ballistic missile in high maneuver penetration condition.An accurate ballistic trajectory model is applied to generate training samples,and ablation experiments are conducted to determine the mapping relationship between the flight state and the impact point.At the same time,the impact point coordinates are decoupled to improve the prediction accuracy,and the sigmoid activation function is improved to ameliorate the prediction efficiency.Therefore,an IPP neural network model,which solves the contradiction between the accuracy and the speed of the IPP,is established.In view of the performance deviation of the divert control system,the mapping relationship between the guidance parameters and the impact deviation is analysed based on the variational principle.In addition,a fast iterative model of guidance parameters is designed for reference to the Newton iteration method,which solves the nonlinear strong coupling problem of the guidance parameter solution.Monte Carlo simulation results show that the prediction accuracy of the impact point is high,with a 3 σ prediction error of 4.5 m,and the guidance method is robust,with a 3 σ error of 7.5 m.On the STM32F407 singlechip microcomputer,a single IPP takes about 2.374 ms,and a single guidance solution takes about9.936 ms,which has a good real-time performance and a certain engineering application value.
文摘Considering the problem of multiple ballistic missiles tracking of boost-phase ballistic missile defense, a boost-phase tracking algorithm based on multiple hypotheses tracking （MHT） concept is proposed. This paper focuses on the tracking algo- rithm for hypothesis generation, hypothesis probability calculation, hypotheses reduction and pruning and other sectors. From an engineering point of view, a technique called the linear assignment problem （LAP） used in the implementation of M-best feasible hypotheses generation, the number of the hypotheses is relatively small compared with the total number that may exist in each scan, also the N-scan back pruning is used, the algorithm＇s efficiency and practicality have been improved. Monte Carlo simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can track the boost phase of multiple ballistic missiles and it has a good tracking performance compared with joint probability data association （JPDA）.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 12002046)supported by the State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology of China
文摘The damage effects of fluid-filled submunition payload impacted by the kinetic kill vehicle(KKV)are investigated by simulations and ground-based experiments.Numerical simulations showed that the damage level and number of submunitions were significantly influenced by the diameter of the KKV compared with its length.Based on that,a high velocity penetrator formed by shaped charge explosion was used to simulate the direct hit experiment of a KKV impacting submunition payload.Experimental results demonstrated that the damage modes of submunitions mainly included the slight damage,perforation and total smash,showing a good agreement with the simulations.To understand the multiple damage modes of submunitions,the damage behavior of the submunitions in direct hit process were analyzed based on the AUTODYN-3D code.Numerical results presented that increased KKV diameter can increase the crater diameter and expand the damage volume,which will achieve a higher direct hit lethality.Further analysis indicated that there were other mechanical behaviors can enhance the damage to submunitions not lying in the KKV flight path,such as secondary debris kill,neighboring submunitions collision with each other,and high-speed fluid injection effect.
