This paper introduces an innovative approach to the synchronized demand-capacity balance with special focus on sector capacity uncertainty within a centrally controlled collaborative air traffic flow management(ATFM)f...This paper introduces an innovative approach to the synchronized demand-capacity balance with special focus on sector capacity uncertainty within a centrally controlled collaborative air traffic flow management(ATFM)framework.Further with previous study,the uncertainty in capacity is considered as a non-negligible issue regarding multiple reasons,like the impact of weather,the strike of air traffic controllers(ATCOs),the military use of airspace and the spatiotemporal distribution of nonscheduled flights,etc.These recessive factors affect the outcome of traffic flow optimization.In this research,the focus is placed on the impact of sector capacity uncertainty on demand and capacity balancing(DCB)optimization and ATFM,and multiple options,such as delay assignment and rerouting,are intended for regulating the traffic flow.A scenario optimization method for sector capacity in the presence of uncertainties is used to find the approximately optimal solution.The results show that the proposed approach can achieve better demand and capacity balancing and determine perfect integer solutions to ATFM problems,solving large-scale instances(24 h on seven capacity scenarios,with 6255 flights and 8949 trajectories)in 5-15 min.To the best of our knowledge,our experiment is the first to tackle large-scale instances of stochastic ATFM problems within the collaborative ATFM framework.展开更多
A time-optimal aircraft-following model is introduced to address air traffic flow interference by velocity reduction. The objective function is set up as minimizing the recovery time during which the separation minima...A time-optimal aircraft-following model is introduced to address air traffic flow interference by velocity reduction. The objective function is set up as minimizing the recovery time during which the separation minima are not infringed and the separation of the air traffic flow returns to the initial separation at the terminal time. Pontryagin＇s minimum principle is used to solve the optimum aircraft-following velocity control law. An analytical minimum safe following separation is also provided under the time-optimal control law. The simulation results show that the precision first-order tracking accuracy is achieved without losing the separation.展开更多
本文基于空中交通流运行现象建立交通拥挤传播规则挖掘模型,从数理角度分析并表征终端区交通流拥挤状态的传播现象。首先,对终端区交通流按照航段结构进行划分并给出交通状态评价指标,采用模糊C均值算法对终端区进场交通流状态进行聚类...本文基于空中交通流运行现象建立交通拥挤传播规则挖掘模型,从数理角度分析并表征终端区交通流拥挤状态的传播现象。首先,对终端区交通流按照航段结构进行划分并给出交通状态评价指标,采用模糊C均值算法对终端区进场交通流状态进行聚类划分;其次,使用OApriori算法挖掘终端区进场交通流拥挤传播规则;最后,基于实测历史数据构建北京终端区全空域及机场模型(TAAM,total airspace and airport modeler)仿真场景,模拟终端区在不同流量分布特征下的运行情况并进行分析,结果表明:本文模型分析所得的传播规律与实际情况相符,并发现优化终端区进场点流量分布能显著减少终端区拥挤状态的传播现象。展开更多
为实现准确的机场流量短期预测,本文建立了基于二次分解方法的分解集成预测模型。首先,应用局部加权回归周期趋势分解(STL,seasonal and trend decomposition procedure based on Loess)算法将原始时间序列分解为趋势项、季节项和余项3...为实现准确的机场流量短期预测,本文建立了基于二次分解方法的分解集成预测模型。首先,应用局部加权回归周期趋势分解(STL,seasonal and trend decomposition procedure based on Loess)算法将原始时间序列分解为趋势项、季节项和余项3个分量,并计算其样本熵。其次,应用遗传算法(GA,genetic algorithm)优化变分模态分解(VMD,variational mode decomposition)参数,对熵值较大的分量进行二次分解。再次,使用极端梯度提升(XGBoost,extreme gradient boosting)对二次分解后的所有分量进行预测,采用加和集成得到最终的预测值。最后,采集国内典型机场实际运行数据进行实例分析。针对北京首都国际机场60 min进场、离场流量时序,本文模型预测的均等系数(EC,equal coefficient)值分别为0.9703、0.9959,相比其他常用模型均有所提高。此外,对于上海浦东、上海虹桥、广州白云3个大型国际机场,本文模型在60 min、30 min统计尺度下进场和离场流量预测的EC值均在0.9700以上,15 min统计尺度下预测的EC值均在0.9500以上。结果表明,本文建立的二次分解集成预测模型具有良好的准确性和普适性,用于机场流量短期预测是可行和有效的。展开更多
随着空域资源需求的不断增大,军民航间飞行矛盾日益突显。为解决此问题,本文以国务院、中央军事委员会空中交通管制委员会提出的“军民航空管联合运行”为背景,引入军民航共享空域的概念,重点研究了在此类空域中军民航飞行活动协同排序(...随着空域资源需求的不断增大,军民航间飞行矛盾日益突显。为解决此问题,本文以国务院、中央军事委员会空中交通管制委员会提出的“军民航空管联合运行”为背景,引入军民航共享空域的概念,重点研究了在此类空域中军民航飞行活动协同排序(CMFCS,civil-military aviation flight activity collaborative sequencing)问题。首先,基于军民航各自飞行任务特点与差异,对军民航飞行任务的种类进行划分,并使用层次分析法确定各类飞行任务的优先权原则;其次,以军民航飞行活动总延误时间成本最小为目标,建立CMFCS模型;最后,使用遗传算法对模型进行求解,确定军民航飞行活动批准进入共享空域的时间序列。研究结果表明,与经典的先到先服务(FCFS,first come first service)策略相比,协同排序策略得到的总延误时间成本降低了72.17%,优化效果显著且更符合实际,能够实现军民航共同使用国家空域资源,保障飞行活动安全、有序、高效地运行。展开更多
文摘This paper introduces an innovative approach to the synchronized demand-capacity balance with special focus on sector capacity uncertainty within a centrally controlled collaborative air traffic flow management(ATFM)framework.Further with previous study,the uncertainty in capacity is considered as a non-negligible issue regarding multiple reasons,like the impact of weather,the strike of air traffic controllers(ATCOs),the military use of airspace and the spatiotemporal distribution of nonscheduled flights,etc.These recessive factors affect the outcome of traffic flow optimization.In this research,the focus is placed on the impact of sector capacity uncertainty on demand and capacity balancing(DCB)optimization and ATFM,and multiple options,such as delay assignment and rerouting,are intended for regulating the traffic flow.A scenario optimization method for sector capacity in the presence of uncertainties is used to find the approximately optimal solution.The results show that the proposed approach can achieve better demand and capacity balancing and determine perfect integer solutions to ATFM problems,solving large-scale instances(24 h on seven capacity scenarios,with 6255 flights and 8949 trajectories)in 5-15 min.To the best of our knowledge,our experiment is the first to tackle large-scale instances of stochastic ATFM problems within the collaborative ATFM framework.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundations of China (Nos. 60972006 and61179042)the National Science and Technology Support Program (No. 2011BAH24B10)
文摘A time-optimal aircraft-following model is introduced to address air traffic flow interference by velocity reduction. The objective function is set up as minimizing the recovery time during which the separation minima are not infringed and the separation of the air traffic flow returns to the initial separation at the terminal time. Pontryagin＇s minimum principle is used to solve the optimum aircraft-following velocity control law. An analytical minimum safe following separation is also provided under the time-optimal control law. The simulation results show that the precision first-order tracking accuracy is achieved without losing the separation.
文摘本文基于空中交通流运行现象建立交通拥挤传播规则挖掘模型,从数理角度分析并表征终端区交通流拥挤状态的传播现象。首先,对终端区交通流按照航段结构进行划分并给出交通状态评价指标,采用模糊C均值算法对终端区进场交通流状态进行聚类划分;其次,使用OApriori算法挖掘终端区进场交通流拥挤传播规则;最后,基于实测历史数据构建北京终端区全空域及机场模型(TAAM,total airspace and airport modeler)仿真场景,模拟终端区在不同流量分布特征下的运行情况并进行分析,结果表明:本文模型分析所得的传播规律与实际情况相符,并发现优化终端区进场点流量分布能显著减少终端区拥挤状态的传播现象。
文摘随着空域资源需求的不断增大,军民航间飞行矛盾日益突显。为解决此问题,本文以国务院、中央军事委员会空中交通管制委员会提出的“军民航空管联合运行”为背景,引入军民航共享空域的概念,重点研究了在此类空域中军民航飞行活动协同排序(CMFCS,civil-military aviation flight activity collaborative sequencing)问题。首先,基于军民航各自飞行任务特点与差异,对军民航飞行任务的种类进行划分,并使用层次分析法确定各类飞行任务的优先权原则;其次,以军民航飞行活动总延误时间成本最小为目标,建立CMFCS模型;最后,使用遗传算法对模型进行求解,确定军民航飞行活动批准进入共享空域的时间序列。研究结果表明,与经典的先到先服务(FCFS,first come first service)策略相比,协同排序策略得到的总延误时间成本降低了72.17%,优化效果显著且更符合实际,能够实现军民航共同使用国家空域资源,保障飞行活动安全、有序、高效地运行。
