Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to i...Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.展开更多
A system of systems(SoS)composes a set of independent constituent systems(CSs),where the degree of authority to control the independence of CSs varies,depending on different SoS types.Key researchers describe four SoS...A system of systems(SoS)composes a set of independent constituent systems(CSs),where the degree of authority to control the independence of CSs varies,depending on different SoS types.Key researchers describe four SoS types with descending levels of central authority:directed,acknowledged,collaborative and virtual.Although the definitions have been recognized in SoS engineering,what is challenging is the difficulty of translating these definitions into models and simulation environments.Thus,we provide a goal-based method including a mathematical baseline to translate these definitions into more effective agent-based modeling and simulations.First,we construct the theoretical models of CS and SoS.Based on the theoretical models,we analyze the degree of authority influenced by SoS characteristics.Next,we propose a definition of SoS types by quantitatively explaining the degree of authority.Finally,we recognize the differences between acknowledged SoS and collaborative SoS using a migrating waterfowl flock by an agentbased model(ABM)simulation.This paper contributes to the SoS body of knowledge by increasing our understanding of the degree of authority in an SoS,so we may identify suitable SoS types to achieve SoS goals by modeling and simulation.展开更多
分析了基于信息系统武器装备体系基本特征和仿真评估要求,研究了基于Agent建模仿真(Agentbased modeling and simulation,ABMS)方法的体系效能仿真开发和评估过程,针对基于信息系统武器装备体系仿真评估的要求,建立了由体系效能评估准...分析了基于信息系统武器装备体系基本特征和仿真评估要求,研究了基于Agent建模仿真(Agentbased modeling and simulation,ABMS)方法的体系效能仿真开发和评估过程,针对基于信息系统武器装备体系仿真评估的要求,建立了由体系效能评估准备、联合作战想定编辑、ABMS体系仿真引擎、作战过程表现及战果统计,以及体系效能综合评估等组成的体系效能评估技术参考框架,并通过开发相关系统验证了框架的合理性和实用性。展开更多
【目的】通过分析城市兴趣点(point of interest,POI)数据,实现场地相关区域城市特征的挖掘,借助黏菌智能体模型接入区域城市特征数据,生成城市公园场地空间结构,为当下城市公园场地设计提供一种复杂系统自组织机制的空间分析方法与设...【目的】通过分析城市兴趣点(point of interest,POI)数据,实现场地相关区域城市特征的挖掘,借助黏菌智能体模型接入区域城市特征数据,生成城市公园场地空间结构,为当下城市公园场地设计提供一种复杂系统自组织机制的空间分析方法与设计新思路。【方法】采用基于POI数据映射的黏菌智能体空间网络分析设计方法,通过多智能体模型空间信息模拟,探索城市空间功能渗透下城市公园的系统性空间功能关联,从而引导规划场地的结构生形。【结果】基于POI数据映射的黏菌智能体空间网络分析设计方法在中小场地景观设计中具备较高的可行性。多智能体模型对黏菌生长行为的模拟能够有效反映与场地结构关联的城市信息在场地空间中的渗透结果,形成带有自组织路径肌理的场地空间功能分区。【结论】多智能体模型分析借助空间算法,能有效载入场地及其关联系统空间的设计信息,通过智能体粒子模拟群体行为来形成空间关系映射,可为景观设计带来新的思考范式。展开更多
在基于A gen t建模仿真方法的战争复杂性研究过程中,为了解决高层指挥控制A gen t对军事态势自主分析判断能力的问题,引入了高等物理学中电势场的基本原理来对战场军事态势分析进行建模——并取名为人工势场。介绍了人工势场模型构建的...在基于A gen t建模仿真方法的战争复杂性研究过程中,为了解决高层指挥控制A gen t对军事态势自主分析判断能力的问题,引入了高等物理学中电势场的基本原理来对战场军事态势分析进行建模——并取名为人工势场。介绍了人工势场模型构建的基本原理,结合工程实践详细讨论了该模型在理论和工程实现上的一些基本问题,最后给出了基于该模型的几个简单的分析测试实例。仿真实验证明该模型用于高层指挥控制A gen t的实时军事态势分析是可行的。展开更多
当前基于Agent建模仿真(Agent based modeling and simulation,ABMS)方法被军事仿真界普遍认为是军事作战研究、特别是网络中心战(network centric war,NCW)环境下的网络中心作战研究的最佳方法。针对体系效能评估应用,需要在统一的作...当前基于Agent建模仿真(Agent based modeling and simulation,ABMS)方法被军事仿真界普遍认为是军事作战研究、特别是网络中心战(network centric war,NCW)环境下的网络中心作战研究的最佳方法。针对体系效能评估应用,需要在统一的作战概念框架下形成可重用的体系模型框架,能够根据体系(system of sys-tems,SOS)效能评估需求定义和灵活组合不同的作战实体Agent模型,支持对不同体系效能评估问题的研究。基于ABMS开发方法,在统一的作战概念模型框架下对物理域、信息域、认知域和社会域进行合理抽象,建立了可组合的体系仿真模型框架,据此开发了面向体系效能分析应用的仿真平台,用户可以根据体系效能评估问题和作战背景,快速定义和组合不同的作战实体Agent模型形成体系仿真应用系统,进行体系对抗仿真分析与评估。展开更多
基金supported by the Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science Foundation(2022ECK004)Shanghai Soft Science Research Project(23692123400)。
文摘Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(61873236)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province(LZ21F020003,LY18F030001)the Civil Aerospace Pre-research Project(D020101).
文摘A system of systems(SoS)composes a set of independent constituent systems(CSs),where the degree of authority to control the independence of CSs varies,depending on different SoS types.Key researchers describe four SoS types with descending levels of central authority:directed,acknowledged,collaborative and virtual.Although the definitions have been recognized in SoS engineering,what is challenging is the difficulty of translating these definitions into models and simulation environments.Thus,we provide a goal-based method including a mathematical baseline to translate these definitions into more effective agent-based modeling and simulations.First,we construct the theoretical models of CS and SoS.Based on the theoretical models,we analyze the degree of authority influenced by SoS characteristics.Next,we propose a definition of SoS types by quantitatively explaining the degree of authority.Finally,we recognize the differences between acknowledged SoS and collaborative SoS using a migrating waterfowl flock by an agentbased model(ABM)simulation.This paper contributes to the SoS body of knowledge by increasing our understanding of the degree of authority in an SoS,so we may identify suitable SoS types to achieve SoS goals by modeling and simulation.
文摘分析了基于信息系统武器装备体系基本特征和仿真评估要求,研究了基于Agent建模仿真(Agentbased modeling and simulation,ABMS)方法的体系效能仿真开发和评估过程,针对基于信息系统武器装备体系仿真评估的要求,建立了由体系效能评估准备、联合作战想定编辑、ABMS体系仿真引擎、作战过程表现及战果统计,以及体系效能综合评估等组成的体系效能评估技术参考框架,并通过开发相关系统验证了框架的合理性和实用性。
文摘【目的】通过分析城市兴趣点(point of interest,POI)数据,实现场地相关区域城市特征的挖掘,借助黏菌智能体模型接入区域城市特征数据,生成城市公园场地空间结构,为当下城市公园场地设计提供一种复杂系统自组织机制的空间分析方法与设计新思路。【方法】采用基于POI数据映射的黏菌智能体空间网络分析设计方法,通过多智能体模型空间信息模拟,探索城市空间功能渗透下城市公园的系统性空间功能关联,从而引导规划场地的结构生形。【结果】基于POI数据映射的黏菌智能体空间网络分析设计方法在中小场地景观设计中具备较高的可行性。多智能体模型对黏菌生长行为的模拟能够有效反映与场地结构关联的城市信息在场地空间中的渗透结果,形成带有自组织路径肌理的场地空间功能分区。【结论】多智能体模型分析借助空间算法,能有效载入场地及其关联系统空间的设计信息,通过智能体粒子模拟群体行为来形成空间关系映射,可为景观设计带来新的思考范式。
文摘在基于A gen t建模仿真方法的战争复杂性研究过程中,为了解决高层指挥控制A gen t对军事态势自主分析判断能力的问题,引入了高等物理学中电势场的基本原理来对战场军事态势分析进行建模——并取名为人工势场。介绍了人工势场模型构建的基本原理,结合工程实践详细讨论了该模型在理论和工程实现上的一些基本问题,最后给出了基于该模型的几个简单的分析测试实例。仿真实验证明该模型用于高层指挥控制A gen t的实时军事态势分析是可行的。
文摘当前基于Agent建模仿真(Agent based modeling and simulation,ABMS)方法被军事仿真界普遍认为是军事作战研究、特别是网络中心战(network centric war,NCW)环境下的网络中心作战研究的最佳方法。针对体系效能评估应用,需要在统一的作战概念框架下形成可重用的体系模型框架,能够根据体系(system of sys-tems,SOS)效能评估需求定义和灵活组合不同的作战实体Agent模型,支持对不同体系效能评估问题的研究。基于ABMS开发方法,在统一的作战概念模型框架下对物理域、信息域、认知域和社会域进行合理抽象,建立了可组合的体系仿真模型框架,据此开发了面向体系效能分析应用的仿真平台,用户可以根据体系效能评估问题和作战背景,快速定义和组合不同的作战实体Agent模型形成体系仿真应用系统,进行体系对抗仿真分析与评估。
